Capuano now looking for only a 1 year deal

[Smokey]

Capuano is a huge upgrade over Happ. Like over half a run/game better.

 

Probably but I don't think this team plans on paying Happ $7 million to pitch out of the pen.

[Angrioter]

Probably but I don't think this team plans on paying Happ $7 million to pitch out of the pen.

 

Adds "AA reputation" and his awful trade.

Happ will be imposed on any price lol

[LunchBox]

Capuano is a huge upgrade over Happ. Like over half a run/game better.

 

Capuano is undoubtedly a superior pitcher by nearly every measure; however, he and Happ have nearly identical career ERAs and Happ is actually superior in suppressing the HR, which is probably the full extent of this team's evaluation.

 

He's definitely an upgrade but unfortunately Happ's presence and salary mitigates much of what he has to offer, rendering his addition redundant. It's similar to the Arroyo situation in a lot of ways.

[Smokey]

Capuano is undoubtedly a superior pitcher by nearly every measure; however, he and Happ have nearly identical career ERAs and Happ is actually superior in suppressing the HR, which is probably the full extent of this team's evaluation.

 

He's definitely an upgrade but unfortunately Happ's presence and salary mitigates much of what he has to offer, rendering his addition redundant. It's similar to the Arroyo situation in a lot of ways.

 

This is precisely why you shouldn't be giving up assets for 30+ year old 5th starters.

[LunchBox]

This is precisely why you shouldn't be giving up assets for 30+ year old 5th starters.

 

Agreed, although they were only "assets" in terms of controllability, the talent level was pretty minimal. The futility of his presence on this team speaks more to the amount of SPing depth they've assembled than anything else IMO.

[Ehjays]

iA fangraphs article

 

 

Explaining the Chris Capuano Bargain

by Jeff Sullivan - January 31, 2014

 

Everybody’s interested in free-agent bargains. Regular free-agent prices always seem increasingly insane, so everybody’s interested in free-agent bargains. People ask about remaining bargains in seemingly every FanGraphs chat I either run or read, and my automatic answer has long been Chris Capuano. I don’t even think about it anymore. It’s Capuano, and then it’s on to the next question. I don’t remember when it started this way. I don’t remember what my initial explanation was. It seems about time to actually write a post about this, and as it happens, this post can even be timely.

 

Buster Olney wrote this morning about how free-agent prices are coming down with spring training nearly upon us. Teams have even exploited this as a strategy, figuring that, in time, players will get more desperate than the teams will. Olney also composed a few tweets, two of which are relevant to this particular Capuano-centric discussion. Now I’ll embed them, as you do.

 

 

A recent ask on behalf of Bronson Arroyo in the last two weeks was for a three-year deal.

 

— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) January 31, 2014

 

 

 

And:

 

Chris Capuano’s asking price — at two years earlier in the winter — is down to one year, according to sources.

 

— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) January 31, 2014

 

 

 

Now, it doesn’t matter so much what Arroyo wants. Players always want a lot. Ervin Santana, at one point, wanted $100 million. Nelson Cruz, at one point, wanted $75 million. Players will sign for the best they can get, since it’s better than not signing, and no one has actually yet given in to Arroyo’s demands. But it is possible to imagine his getting three years. It’s definitely possible to see him getting two, maybe with an option, and Capuano’s now just looking for a home for six or seven months. Capuano, as it happens, is younger by a year and a half.

 

As a starting point, in October the Dodgers declined Capuano’s $8 million option, paying a $1 million buyout. In other words, the Dodgers didn’t value a year of Chris Capuano at $7 million or more. That’s just the Dodgers, and that’s not the whole market, but obviously, Capuano’s phone hasn’t been ringing off the hook to which phones haven’t been attached for 20 years. $7 million is, basically, the price of a win over replacement. At least, that’s the price for free agents.

 

I’m going to compare Capuano and Arroyo, not because the choice is actually one or the other, but just because it seems like it could be instructive. I’ll use our usual three-year windows, and I’ll remove Capuano’s limited relief appearances. The last three years, Capuano has started 84 games, and Arroyo has started 96. Arroyo’s posted the superior ERA, and RA9. Capuano’s posted the superior FIP and xFIP. As a result, Arroyo has been more than three wins more valuable, by RA9-WAR. However, Capuano has been three wins more valuable by WAR, in more than 100 fewer innings. Two different stats paint completely different pictures.

 

And we can’t trust either one of them 100%. Compromise, and the pitchers are more or less even. Capuano’s got a huge edge in strikeouts. Arroyo’s got an edge in hit prevention. Arroyo’s pitched in a smaller park; Capuano’s pitched to worse catchers. This being FanGraphs, I prefer to more heavily weight the peripherals. I’m also willing to grant that Arroyo might be one of those guys able to beat his FIP, but the FIP gap between Arroyo and Capuano has been not small.

 

What Arroyo really has going for him is durability. He’s reached or exceeded 200 innings in eight of the last nine seasons. In the one exception, he threw 199. He’s simply not a guy who misses starts, and I’m sure that’s one of his primary selling points. But then, with pitchers, durability is only so predictive. Capuano doesn’t have the durable label, because he’s actually undergone Tommy John surgery twice. He was injured three times just last season. But all the injuries were minor, and between 2011-2012, Capuano started 64 times. He’s been durable recently, and it’s not like his stuff has declined. Last year he had the highest average velocity of his career.

 

This past season, Capuano posted an average adjusted FIP, and an average adjusted xFIP, just like Scott Feldman. The last three years, he’s posted a slightly below-average adjusted FIP, but an average adjusted xFIP. He has a better three-year FIP/xFIP profile than Ervin Santana. His three-year strikeout rate is exactly the same as R.A. Dickey‘s.

 

Most certainly, there are things about Capuano not to like. His elbow has been cut open twice, and he’s 35 years old. He has allowed more runs than you’d expect from his other statistics, and maybe that means something. He’s a lefty who’s been far better against lefties, meaning in some sense he’s been a reliever in a stretched-out role. The last three years against Capuano, lefties have hit 57% grounders, while righties have hit 39% grounders. That difference of 18% is the sixth-biggest in baseball over that span, and righties have torched Capuano for more dingers. He’s got a big platoon split, from the wrong side.

 

There’s also the matter of Capuano’s strikeouts never matching Capuano’s swings and misses. There’s a very strong correlation between strikeout rate and contact rate, allowing one to generate an expected strikeout rate. Capuano routinely posts better-than-average contact rates, but his strikeout rates have been somewhat unremarkable. Historically, pitchers who throw a lot of curves have been able to beat their expected strikeout rates, and pitchers who throw a lot of changeups have undershot their expected strikeout rates. Capuano leans heavily on his changeup, being a lefty who faces a lot of righties.

 

When you put everything together, Capuano definitely isn’t great, and he definitely isn’t the most durable starting pitcher in the world. He’s probably a little bit below the league average, in terms of true talent at this point in his career. But then you need to consider that not all five of a team’s starters are likely to be average or better than that. There’s value in what Capuano can do, and he’s worth some millions for a year, a year during which he could be worth one or two wins. On a WAR/200-innings basis, Steamer projects Capuano at 1.8. It projects Tim Hudson at 1.7. Bronson Arroyo at 1.6. Phil Hughes at 1.9. John Danks at 1.8. There’s a strong argument to be made that Capuano could be worth eight figures, and it looks like he’s going to have to settle for less than that. Which means he could be a free agent with surplus value.

 

Every starting rotation needs higher-quality pitchers, and every starting rotation needs guys who don’t suck. Capuano doesn’t suck, and he could help out toward the back end, for a very reasonable cost. Of course one shouldn’t get excited over the prospect of signing Chris Capuano for a year. But not every good move has to be exciting, and besides, Bronson Arroyo’s unlikely to flip any lids.

[ILDD]

AA - sign this guy now! No such thing as a bad one-year deal.

 

Not star signing by any mean but a guy who will give you innings that aren't throw by Redmond, Nolin, Wang, Jenkins, Ortiz etc.

[jaysblue]

I've always been a Capuano fan from his days back with the Brewers. I was even saying a couple of years ago he would have been a bargain signing after his strong comeback with the Mets, and some posters on here were bashing me for saying that.

 

I'm not sure Cap would be the greatest fit in this ballpark, though he can eat innings, is durable, throws strikes and could likely post a 2 WAR. 1 year worth $4-5M would be solid.

[G-Snarls]

Mariners close to signing per multiple Twitter sources

[TBJ12]

I'd rather roll with what we have than sign Capuano anyway.

[Angrioter]

lol

[awsomest]

I bet Alex doesn't even know who capuano is

[Horses Fart]

I bet Alex doesn't even know who capuano is

 

Bahahaha. Wouldn't surprise me one bit!!!

[mitchf]

ERA too high. BB/9 too low. Contract fairness too fair.

 

Not our type of target.

[Nox]

Contract fairness too fair.

 

 

Lol

[Nox]

They probably offered him a minor league deal with an invite to ST. $1 million salary if he makes the team, and cheap team options for 2015 and 2016.

 

"We offered what we thought was fair market value...something something artificial turf...something something taxes...something something Canada"

 

ftfy

[fatcowxlive]

 

Ken Rosenthal

‏@Ken_Rosenthal

Sources: #RedSox talking to Capuano.

[Anemic0ffense]

 

Ken Rosenthal

‏@Ken_Rosenthal

Sources: #RedSox talking to Capuano.

 

[eastcoastjaysfan]

Capuano will go to the Sox. Pitch like 130-140 of sub 4 ERA ball. Book it.

[jaysfan2014]

Long-time NL pitcher who gives up tons of hits and pushing 35? Pass. We don't need a guy similar to what the Angels got in Joe Blanton last year.. both of whom have played for the Dodgers.

 

Joe Blanton, who is similar to Capuano, put up a 6.00+ ERA last year in the AL.. Capuano would likely be very similar.

[havok24]

Capuano and Drew make a lot of sense in terms of what this team needs, so it's definitely not going to happen. AA probably thinks Capuano is some sort of cappuccino anyway.

 

#Lovethisteam

[FireAlexAnthopoulos]

I bet Alex doesn't even know who capuano is

 

He only knows big names and whoever's leading the league in ERA, dingerzzz and ribbies.

[fatcowxlive]

Capuano and Drew make a lot of sense in terms of what this team needs, so it's definitely not going to happen. AA probably thinks Capuano is some sort of cappuccino anyway.

 

#Lovethisteam

 

This will never escape us

[GD]

This will never escape us

 

Who changed your title back? Should still be "I f***ed up the winning streak."

[fatcowxlive]

Who changed your title back? Should still be "I f***ed up the winning streak."

 

And that'll never escape me! I don't know who changed it, I was actually getting used to it lol

 

On a similar note - I think my GDT attendance and effort last year were sub-par. This will change this year, mark my words. I have a class where I basically surf the entire period, that will help in making the daily GDTs!

[GD]

And that'll never escape me! I don't know who changed it, I was actually getting used to it lol

 

On a similar note - I think my GDT attendance and effort last year were sub-par. This will change this year, mark my words. I have a class where I basically surf the entire period, that will help in making the daily GDTs!

 

Lmao, lucky. I'll be busy a lot of the summer so I'll be able to do it once every little while but not as often as I used to.