Waiting the market out

[SAAviour]

"Of the teams with protected draft picks, Houston and Miami aren't likely to go anywhere near the five, the Chicago White Sox and Cubs are very unlikely to do the same, Minnesota is focusing on non-compensation starters, Philadelphia and Colorado may be tapped financially, and the Mets aren't inclined to go after Drew or Morales, even if both are a fit. Which leaves the Mariners, who will almost certainly sign a pitcher – though it could be Tanaka – and the Blue Jays, who aren't the sort to make a huge splash."

 

-from jeff passan

 

AA is in a good position, not backed up against a wall like many think.

[Stangstag]

True. I think AA realizes that he tried to get things done too quickly last year and he ended up massively overpaying. This year he is taking more of a gamble and waiting it out in order to save money.

[AdamGreenwood]

Or hopefully, he's not doing anything this year. He's decimated our farm system enough, and obligated enough money. Let's not dig the hole any deeper for the next GM to climb out of.

[Angrioter]

"Of the teams with protected draft picks, Houston and Miami aren't likely to go anywhere near the five, the Chicago White Sox and Cubs are very unlikely to do the same, Minnesota is focusing on non-compensation starters, Philadelphia and Colorado may be tapped financially, and the Mets aren't inclined to go after Drew or Morales, even if both are a fit. Which leaves the Mariners, who will almost certainly sign a pitcher – though it could be Tanaka – and the Blue Jays, who aren't the sort to make a huge splash."

 

-from jeff passan

 

AA is in a good position, not backed up against a wall like many think.

 

Good position for what?

Nelson Cruz - Roids, 33 and last 3 seasons same WAR as Sean Rodriguez and John Buck

Stephen Drew - NO way

Ubaldo Jimenez - Expensive s***

Kendrys Morales -Jays need saves runs, not score runs lol

Ervin Santana - Expensive s***

[BlueJayWay]

Or hopefully, he's not doing anything this year. He's decimated our farm system enough, and obligated enough money. Let's not dig the hole any deeper for the next GM to climb out of.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if Rogers/Beeston won't let him do anything. After the debacle last year they might not want to greenlight any more payroll bumps.

[jays4life19]

Good position for what?

Nelson Cruz - Roids, 33 and last 3 seasons same WAR as Sean Rodriguez and John Buck

Stephen Drew - NO way

Ubaldo Jimenez - Expensive s***

Kendrys Morales -Jays need saves runs, not score runs lol

Ervin Santana - Expensive s***

 

I think there's a scenario where Jimenez ends up as not expensive ( but maybe s***). It will take some time though.

 

I would say he's probably the most likely out of anyone left to sign here.

[Jays]

I think there's a scenario where Jimenez ends up as not expensive ( but maybe s***). It will take some time though.

 

I would say he's probably the most likely out of anyone left to sign here.

 

He seems like the kind of guy the Jays would want right now. Durable and somewhat reliable. That draft pick comp makes teams shy away from him and gives us a better chance at signing him.

[Boxcar]

True. I think AA realizes that he tried to get things done too quickly last year and he ended up massively overpaying. This year he is taking more of a gamble and waiting it out in order to save money.

 

Why save money when you can trade away the future?

[ILDD]

I had a thought this morning, prompted by Fangraphs doing a pice on where Nelson Cruz could end up.

 

They mentioned that only the Orioles seem like a reasonable landing place for Cruz but they would like to avoid losing their 1st round draft pick. If AA signs Jiminez then you lose the 2nd round pick, if you then sign Cruz you los the 3rd round pick.

 

Are sign-and-trades allowed in mlb? Could AA sign Cruz then trade him to Orioles for a low end prospect? Prospect would be "worth" more than a 3rd round guy but less than a 1st rouder so both teams come out ahead.

[jays4life19]

I had a thought this morning, prompted by Fangraphs doing a pice on where Nelson Cruz could end up.

 

They mentioned that only the Orioles seem like a reasonable landing place for Cruz but they would like to avoid losing their 1st round draft pick. If AA signs Jiminez then you lose the 2nd round pick, if you then sign Cruz you los the 3rd round pick.

 

Are sign-and-trades allowed in mlb? Could AA sign Cruz then trade him to Orioles for a low end prospect? Prospect would be "worth" more than a 3rd round guy but less than a 1st rouder so both teams come out ahead.

 

I believe teams can't trade free agents untill june 15th unless the player gives consent.

[LunchBox]

Stephen Drew - NO way

 

Why? Word is he'll get approximately 2/22, it's a small risk with a lot of potential upside.

 

Ryan Goins- enough said.

[jays4life19]

Why? Word is he'll get approximately 2/22, it's a small risk with a lot of potential upside.

 

Ryan Goins- enough said.

 

Scott Boras. Enough said. lol

[LunchBox]

Motherf***er! I don't even know what to say, this is total f***ing nonsense

[jays4life19]

Motherf***er! I don't even know what to say, this is total f***ing nonsense

 

If i had to guess....i think he ends up on a 1 year contract back with the Red Sox.

 

Can't see Boras signing a pillow contract with us. Although the Rogers center wouldn't be the worst place for him to hit and try and increase his value.

[The Cats Ass]

I had a thought this morning, prompted by Fangraphs doing a pice on where Nelson Cruz could end up.

 

They mentioned that only the Orioles seem like a reasonable landing place for Cruz but they would like to avoid losing their 1st round draft pick. If AA signs Jiminez then you lose the 2nd round pick, if you then sign Cruz you los the 3rd round pick.

 

Are sign-and-trades allowed in mlb? Could AA sign Cruz then trade him to Orioles for a low end prospect? Prospect would be "worth" more than a 3rd round guy but less than a 1st rouder so both teams come out ahead.

 

This could happen, with the consent of the player. So Cruz would know before signing that this was gonna be the case. Not sure this has happened before? But this does seem like an AA type thing to do, a way to work the system into a benefit for him.

[Dr. Dinger]

Other than Garza, there's nothing in the FA market that really interests me.

[SAAviour]

I'd be interested on Jimenez or Santana on a 2-3 year deal.

[ILDD]

I'd like to see both Jiminez and Santana - maybe 4 years $55M and 3 years $40M.

 

The beneift being that if you sign one of them then the other's cost in terms in losing draft picks gets incrementally smaller and you could make this up in the future if you offer one of the a QO.

 

 

This would likely take you over budget with the salaries but then you make a move that sends Happ and Janssen to Seattle for Ackley plus a decent prospect. Ackley is blocked no in Seattle at 2B so he's going to be a 4th OF - Mariners would likely swap him (plus a prospect) for a good reliever and SP depth. This saves Jays $9M which means the overall cost of the move is to add $18M to 2014 salary. Maybe even drop the prospect and ask them to take Romero too - saves nearly $17M instead? Although I don't know if Seattle does this - they move a cheap 4th OF for a closer plus two back of rotation at best arms and increase payroll by $16M.

[Angrioter]

I'd be interested on Jimenez or Santana on a 2-3 year deal.

 

Jimenez 3Ys/50M could be a disaster.

[SAAviour]

Jimenez 3Ys/50M could be a disaster.

 

Yes he definitely could be, but it's only 3 years and if it backfires hopefully we have enough young cheap pitching next year to cover up the mistake, or it works out and we'll have a surplus next year. I'd take the chance.

[Angrioter]

Yes he definitely could be, but it's only 3 years and if it backfires hopefully we have enough young cheap pitching next year to cover up the mistake, or it works out and we'll have a surplus next year. I'd take the chance.

 

Then trade for Samar or Bailey?

[ILDD]

Not really... Only 3 years would be manageable. If we didn't pay scrubs like Izturis and Happ who produce at oe below replacement level production we could afford to throw a couple more million anually to a starter.

 

Not sure about Happ - he provided 1.2 fWAR last year in a season cut short by injury to only 92 IP. I wouldn't say he's producing below replacement level, what he did in 2013 was worth the $5.2M he got paid, roughly. If he'd stayed healthy I don't think 2.0fWAR was out of the question to be honest.

 

Izturis was utter crap last year though, point taken there.

[Grant77]

I think a good point is made about free agent compensation giving us an advantage with Jimenez. Hopefully it leads to a slightly reduced price.

 

Ubaldo is an interesting case, putting up an excellent season despite a continued velocity drop ('only' 92 now). He put up his best K rate ever and lowered his BB rate. He's also made 30+ starts for 6 straight years, despite his troubles.

 

Personally, I think he's durable and figured something out in the second half last year. I'd explore a 3/42 deal, as he's only 30 this month, but probably wouldn't go 4.

[HERPDERP]

AA needs to do something to help this rotation.

 

We finished last place with a terrible record and terrible pitching. We have already lost Johnson, but I'm not sure if that's addition by subtraction.

 

Do we really expect to compete in this division depending on guys like Drabek, Stroman and Hutchison?

 

Two of those guys cannot pitch the whole season and one of them is a duck. AA needs to be making a move on Tanaka or a +200 IP starter or else we'll be seeing the same results this coming season.

[Brenner]

AA needs to do something to help this rotation.

 

We finished last place with a terrible record and terrible pitching. We have already lost Johnson, but I'm not sure if that's addition by subtraction.

 

Do we really expect to compete in this division depending on guys like Drabek, Stroman and Hutchison?

 

Two of those guys cannot pitch the whole season and one of them is a duck. AA needs to be making a move on Tanaka or a +200 IP starter or else we'll be seeing the same results this coming season.

 

Really, we already have two 200+ IP guys on the roster. How many teams have three 200+ IP guys? Last year only 34 pitchers reached 200 IP, so just over 1 per team and we have 2. We need to add quality not a IP eater.

[Abomination]

Really, we already have two 200+ IP guys on the roster. How many teams have three 200+ IP guys? Last year only 34 pitchers reached 200 IP, so just over 1 per team and we have 2. We need to add quality not a IP eater.

 

I don't think it's so much a 200+ inning guy as guys we can be fairly certain will make the majority of their starts. Morrow is a complete unknown in that regard, as are the depth guys we have.

[LunchBox]

This is exactly right IMO. If Jimenez is deemed too expensive, than I maintain Arroyo is the best alternative as he reduces reliance on Morrow, Stroman/Hutch to throw more than 150 innings. I don't believe this team even got 900 IP from their starters last season, suggesting that they need to acquire quality more so than innings is not correct.

 

A minor caveat however, teams building their rotation on reliability should probably be addressing glaring holes in their offense, particularly at 2B...

[GD]

This is exactly right IMO. If Jimenez is deemed too expensive, than I maintain Arroyo is the best alternative as he reduces reliance on Morrow, Stroman/Hutch to throw more than 150 innings.

 

Ewwww. I don't think he's a better option than Rogers or Redmond, honestly.

[GD]

My projections agree.

 

Vindication!

 

When are you gonna post them?

[LunchBox]

The difference between him and Buehrle isn't that significant and he'll cost a fraction of what MB makes.