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Orgfiller All-Star

Orgfiller

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

 

Winning % and WAR in the same tweet, interesting...

 

Also, going by fWAR it's a 10 WAR difference, with Koufax retiring at his peak.

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Spanky__99
Spanky__99

Nah, the rumour according to Morisi, is they're trying to move Andrus. Yet, in this circumstance Profar or Odor make sense.

TwistedLogic Cooperstown

TwistedLogic

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Winning % and WAR in the same tweet, interesting...

 

Also, going by fWAR it's a 10 WAR difference, with Koufax retiring at his peak.

 

Yeah I think the comparison isn't nearly as close as he's making it sound, but that tweet did get me to start thinking whether or not Koufax is actually pretty overrated. Regardless of the reasons for his retirement, or when he retired, he did retire, so he didn't post the longevity or the career numbers that droves of hall of famers ahead of him did.

GD MVP

GD

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Yeah I think the comparison isn't nearly as close as he's making it sound, but that tweet did get me to start thinking whether or not Koufax is actually pretty overrated. Regardless of the reasons for his retirement, or when he retired, he did retire, so he didn't post the longevity or the career numbers that droves of hall of famers ahead of him did.

 

Alternate view: Koufax wasn't overrated, Johan Santana was just awesome. Or maybe a bit of both.

TwistedLogic Cooperstown

TwistedLogic

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Alternate view: Koufax wasn't overrated, Johan Santana was just awesome. Or maybe a bit of both.

 

It kinda is a bit of both. Johan Santana was awesome, but Koufax is still overrated. The BBWAA named him the greatest LHP of all time in 1997. Sure it was 97, but Grove, Spahn and Carlton had all already existed by that point.

BigBounceyBlueBalls FCL Blue Jays

BigBounceyBlueBalls

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

So mlb trade rumours listed 7 teams that would benefit the most by signing James Shields and the jays are not one!

Question for the Stat geeks what kind of voodoo math did they use to figure this out and how?

Unless you had no pitchers preform at all last year and all posted less then 10 wins.

Does 15 wins to I believe the Tigers was one team, mean more to them then our jays!

TheHurl Toronto Blue Jays

TheHurl

Site Manager
Posted
Posted
So mlb trade rumours listed 7 teams that would benefit the most by signing James Shields and the jays are not one!

Question for the Stat geeks what kind of voodoo math did they use to figure this out and how?

Unless you had no pitchers preform at all last year and all posted less then 10 wins.

Does 15 wins to I believe the Tigers was one team, mean more to them then our jays!

 

Before answering I'll post the actual article.

 

And then there was one.

 

With Max Scherzer agreeing to a seven-year deal with the Nationals, James Shields is now the final remaining starting pitcher of significant quality available on the free-agent market. Sure, names such as Kyle Kendrick and Kevin Correia are out there, but those are players you patch into your rotation in July when a starter suffers a surprise elbow injury.

 

Shields is rightfully not sought after at the same level as Scherzer, but he's a top-of-the-rotation starter, and well-run teams aren't going to obsess about his lackluster playoff performance so far in his career. Over the past four seasons, Shields' 15.3 WAR, according to Baseball-reference.com, ranks him 13th in baseball over that span, and his 932⅔ innings is tops among all pitchers. In a neutral park over the next five seasons, the ZiPS projection system projects another 962⅓ innings and 15.1 WAR, suggesting a five-year, $100 million contract is perfectly reasonable. For win-now teams or teams expected to have win totals in the 80s, there's a strong case for paying more than that.

 

So where is Shields the best fit? This is not necessarily a list of teams that will go after Shields, but a list of teams that should be expressing interest.

 

 

 

 

Detroit Tigers

 

 

 

 

The Tigers' "official" position is that they're not interested in Shields. This is a mistake. Scherzer was an important part of the team's success in recent seasons, and their winter pickups don't replace his performance. The Tigers' rotation looks a lot better on paper than in reality, with David Price anchoring it. Justin Verlander has been a workhorse, but how well he'll pitch is now uncertain. Anibal Sanchez has had arm issues, Shane Greene has all of a half-year of MLB experience and a 29-43 minor league win-loss record, and Alfredo Simon's peripherals suggest a crash to earth is forthcoming.

 

Even if the pitchers above do what's expected of them, the rotation still would have zero depth. Whether you're looking at Kyle Lobstein or Drew VerHagen or Buck Farmer, there's no other starter in the organization Detroit should be confident in turning to in an emergency.

 

Shields will come at a significantly lower price than Scherzer earned, and for a team such as the Tigers, it makes little sense to let up on the win-now push. This is likely going to be a lousy team in 2017 and 2018, and they need to do whatever they can to get that playoff window as wide as they can over the next couple of years.

 

Win differential: As of right now, ZiPS has the Tigers at around 87 or 88 wins in 2015. An upgrade to Shields (from Simon) puts them at about 90 wins, which gives them a slightly better chance to win the AL Central.

 

 

 

 

Los Angeles Dodgers

 

 

 

 

The Dodgers are likely in a better place than any of the other teams on Shields' short list; they're a solid favorite to win the NL West. The team's depth at the back of the rotation is thinner than it has been in recent years, and while starter Brett Anderson is an intriguing upside play for the team, he also hasn't managed 100 innings in a season since 2010. His projection reflects this, with ZiPS projecting a 3.27 ERA but managing only 10 starts.

 

The Dodgers have the payroll to add Shields, and what's the point of being a big-spending team if you're not going to leverage that cash?

 

Win differential: Well, ZiPS projects them to have a win total in the low 90s even without Shields. Adding him would tick that even higher.

 

 

 

 

San Francisco Giants

 

 

 

 

While we always joke that the Giants are good only in even-numbered seasons, the fact is they still have the core of players that took them to the World Series in 2014. Another starter after Madison Bumgarner would do a lot to alleviate the concerns about the bottom of the rotation. After Bumgarner, there's no starter without serious questions, and adding Shields would have the nice secondary side effect of forcing the team to give up on their organizational fantasy that Tim Lincecum is going to be a good starter again. The team has the money as well, and has been in on some of the other highly desired free agents, so it's not an unrealistic addition.

 

Win differential: ZiPS has the Giants with a mid-80s win total right now. Replacing Lincecum in the rotation with Shields puts them into the upper 80s, which is where they really need to be to make the playoffs and get a chance to defend their title.

 

 

 

 

San Diego Padres

 

 

 

 

The Padres have made it quite clear they want to make some noise in 2015; for one stretch there, it seemed they were making a trade a day. One thing they lack, though, is starting pitching depth. While one would look at the ERAs of the players in last season's rotation and think everything is just fine, we must remember that they have the benefit of pitching half their games at pitchers' haven Petco Park, and thanks to the continued drop-off in league offense, the NL-average ERA was 3.66. That means a pitcher such as Ian Kennedy (3.63 ERA in 2014, 3.67 ERA projected in 2015) isn't really a top-of-the-rotation option.

 

Shields would give the team another dependable starter and removes the team's need to get upside from a reclamation projection such as Brandon Morrow.

 

Win differential: Despite their additions, the Padres project to be just a .500 team (or slightly better). Getting a team's win total into the mid-80s is a necessity to really be a contender.

 

 

 

 

Miami Marlins

 

 

 

 

While the Marlins need a lot to go right for them and a lot to go wrong for the Nationals to win the division -- ZiPS has the Marlins at 83-84 wins right now, about 10 games behind Washington -- they've been adding key players this offseason, including Mat Latos, Dee Gordon and Michael Morse. They also have another big addition to look forward to in the form of Jose Fernandez, who is expected back midseason following Tommy John surgery. The rest of the rotation right now is rather unexciting, and that includes Latos, whom ZiPS project to have a WAR near 3 but comes with injury concerns that a computer model might not pick up on.

 

Win differential: Adding Shields, whom the Marlins have expressed interest in, would kick the Marlins up to first-tier wild-card contender status, and maybe even give them a chance to make a run at the Nationals.

 

 

 

 

Kansas City Royals

 

 

 

 

It's unlikely Shields will end up back in Kansas City. It would be a good opportunity for the Royals to bring back one of the key cogs of last year's playoff team and not look like the "same old Royals" to a newly interested fan base, and the division is there for the taking; the Tigers enter 2015 weaker than they were in previous seasons and haven't fixed the bullpen, and neither the Indians nor White Sox are unstoppable. Spending $20 million per year on one good player instead of two middling ones would be a very un-Royals thing to do, but they still should consider it if Shields can be had.

 

Win differential: ZiPS has the Royals in the low 80s for wins in 2015. Having Shields back would kick that up a few, giving them a much better wild-card chance.

 

 

 

 

Chicago White Sox

 

 

 

 

There appears to be a distinct AL Central bias in including the White Sox here, but they'd be another interesting destination for Shields. The team has upgraded its roster significantly this winter, with the Jeff Samardzija trade and the David Robertson signing most prominent. There aren't any obvious players out there to improve on some of the weak spots in their lineup, leaving the bottom of the rotation as the most practical hole to improve. ZiPS projects both John Danks and Hector Noesi to have ERAs on the wrong side of 5; both are below replacement level. Meanwhile, Shields would be projected to have a 3.99 ERA and 3.2 WAR even while playing half his games at The Cell.

 

In a very close division, picking up three wins is a large upgrade. Committing to win now and stopping short is like deciding you don't really feel like skydiving after you've already jumped from the plane.

 

Win differential: The White Sox clock in at about the .500 mark by ZiPS. That's a team that can make the playoffs if a lot of things go right and a few (or more) players exceed their projections, but that still makes them a second- or third-tier wild-card contender if not. Given that ZiPS does have Danks and Noesi below replacement level, as noted above, Shields would add four wins to the White Sox's total, making them a more serious threat in the division. It also makes them less likely to rush top prospect Carlos Rodon to the majors, which is a good thing.

jaysfan2014 Dunedin Blue Jays

jaysfan2014

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
And none of them are likely to sign James Shields, as all have spent their budgets for 2015. Padres are unreasonable, Giants have said no, Dodgers have no room, Marlins have said no, and the Tigers can't take on another big contract, especially with the risk Mike Illitch passes on during the contract, and they have no financial flexibility until 2021.. Definitely not Chicago..
TheHurl Toronto Blue Jays

TheHurl

Site Manager
Posted
Posted
I don't understand why MLB teams don't just own all their MiLB affiliates. Is there something that prevents it?

 

my guess is that they are a bad investment that often lose money. Although Tampa Yankees who are one of the few owned by the major league affiliate, and they do very well financially. Yankees don't own the stadium George Steinbrenner Stadium, which they built to mimic the old Yankee stadium.

intentional wok Vancouver Canadians

intentional wok

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

Okay is there a program or something that automatically re-tweets Blue Jay player tweets, or is there some poor intern just sitting around accepting and re-posting Stroman-in-Banff fan memes?

 

I had to close the site because come the f*** on, guys.

 

EDIT: Looks like it's the latter. Still, I'd like my feed to be actually readable. I've blocked friends' newsfeeds on Facebook for less than this.

jaysfan2014 Dunedin Blue Jays

jaysfan2014

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

Wouldn't be surprised if Crain ends up the MiLB deal of the year.

 

Let's just hope he's actually healthy.. he's missed more than a year with shoulder issues. And he's right back where he was before (he was with the White Sox when last healthy.)

Gorlak College Ball

Gorlak

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
Okay is there a program or something that automatically re-tweets Blue Jay player tweets, or is there some poor intern just sitting around accepting and re-posting Stroman-in-Banff fan memes?

 

I had to close the site because come the f*** on, guys.

 

EDIT: Looks like it's the latter. Still, I'd like my feed to be actually readable. I've blocked friends' newsfeeds on Facebook for less than this.

 

Since it's a get the word out tour, I can't see why you're surprised that's it being promoted heavily.

GD MVP

GD

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Is this not one of the dumbest articles you read in a while?

 

http://yanksgoyard.com/2015/01/22/ny-post-really-just-say-blue-jays-better-off-season-yankees/

 

I mean not to say the Yankees didn't have a better off-season then the Jays... I don't know. Just the arguments themselves are really lame.

 

I knew Fansided was retarded, but...

 

Melky Cabrera was a huge loss for this team. He gets on base, he scores runs, and he plays a strong outfield.

 

wow

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