Mets rumors: Jose Bautista

[GD]

I don't even think Bautista gets us Holland.

 

I think that in a vacuum it would be a decent trade for both sides but when you start considering positional needs and what's out there it starts to make a lot less sense.

[TBJ12]

It would be a starting point but I would think it takes a good amount more.

 

I'm not exactly sure what you mean by a good amount more but I wouldn't be adding much if anything to that.

[GD]

I'm not exactly sure what you mean by a good amount more but I wouldn't be adding much if anything to that.

 

Probably a very solid prospect and a mid level one in addition. Rasmus > Holland this year but Profar >> Sanchez.

[GD]

Five years of Holland on a team-friendly deal is worth a lot more than one year of Rasmus and a ~50th-ranked pitching prospect. That's not even considering Profar.

 

His contract really is freaking great. It's not Niese good but damn.

[TBJ12]

I don't even think Bautista gets us Holland. They need arms, and moving a guy coming off a 4.8 WAR age-26 season is probably a non-starter. He also has a sweet contract; he's owed just $22.8 million over the next three seasons, and then has two team options, potentially taking the deal to 5 years and $45.3 million for his age-27 to age-31 seasons.

 

I don't believe for a second that Bautista wouldn't get us Holland. You seem to undervalue just about every Jays player.

 

I would never trade Bautista for Holland anyway. Just thought I would make that clear.

[GD]

You seem to undervalue just about every Jays player.

 

Inb4 BTS isn't a Jays fan

[GD]

But Holland's a better pitcher. I'd rather take Holland than Niese, contracts considered.

 

Yes, as would I. I'm just speaking about their contracts, nothing more. Holland >>> Niese.

[G-Snarls]

[jays_fever]

What would Texas' motivation be for such a deal? They would be trading the 27-31 years of Holland (5 years and $45.3 million including two option years) for the 33-35 years of Bautista (3 years and $42 million including one option year). Now consider that they have holes in the rotation and already have Rios, Martin, Gentry, and Kinsler who can play the OF. It just wouldn't make sense for them, at all.

 

Regarding me undervaluing Jays players, that's a compliment considering this is a Jays forum and everyone is going to tend to overvalue Jays players.

 

Well they could stick him at first, where they have a hole. Holland's solid, but getting one of their middle infielders makes a lot more sense.

[GD]

Well they could stick him at first

 

That would take away a good deal of his value though.

[DuckDuckGose]

What would Texas' motivation be for such a deal? They would be trading the 27-31 years of Holland (5 years and $45.3 million including two option years) for the 33-35 years of Bautista (3 years and $42 million including one option year). Now consider that they have holes in the rotation and already have Rios, Martin, Gentry, and Kinsler who can play the OF. It just wouldn't make sense for them, at all.

 

Regarding me undervaluing Jays players, that's a compliment considering this is a Jays forum and everyone is going to tend to overvalue Jays players.

 

Who is more likely to be a 5 WAR guy next season Holland or Rasmus? Both are probably a win to two wins below that mark. I have both as good not not elite players . Rasmus has a year of control left and is a prime extension candidate. Definitely some value in his contact as well

[Cooler Heads Prevail]

What would Texas' motivation be for such a deal? They would be trading the 27-31 years of Holland (5 years and $45.3 million including two option years) for the 33-35 years of Bautista (3 years and $42 million including one option year). Now consider that they have holes in the rotation and already have Rios, Martin, Gentry, and Kinsler who can play the OF. It just wouldn't make sense for them, at all.

 

Regarding me undervaluing Jays players, that's a compliment considering this is a Jays forum and everyone is going to tend to overvalue Jays players.

 

I think this forum coming off this losing season is definately undervalueing Jays players, especially Bautista and Janssen on team friendly deals. However, I like your idea of Rasmus plus say Stroman for Profar, I could see both teams considering this move. If its not quite there because of Rasmus limited window, maybe chuck in an extra arm.

[GD]

I think this forum coming off this losing season is definately undervalueing Jays players, especially Bautista and Janssen on team friendly deals.

 

I don't think anyone undervalues Janssen.

[Abomination]

I think this forum coming off this losing season is definately undervalueing Jays players, especially Bautista and Janssen on team friendly deals. However, I like your idea of Rasmus plus say Stroman for Profar, I could see both teams considering this move. If its not quite there because of Rasmus limited window, maybe chuck in an extra arm.

 

I don't think that would net Profar even if Rasmus had 3 years remaining on his contract, let alone one. Chucking in an extra arm would probably require Sanchez + one of our better relievers at minimum.

[Frenchsoup]

I think this forum coming off this losing season is definately undervalueing Jays players, especially Bautista and Janssen on team friendly deals. However, I like your idea of Rasmus plus say Stroman for Profar, I could see both teams considering this move. If its not quite there because of Rasmus limited window, maybe chuck in an extra arm.

 

 

This is Janssen's last year under contract bud.

[jays_fever]

That would take away a good deal of his value though.

 

Not really. Hes a corner outfielder who isnt all that great of a defender in the first place.

[GD]

Not really. Hes a corner outfielder who isnt all that great of a defender in the first place.

 

1.) Corner OF > 1B

2.) Bautista had a 7.6 UZR/150 this year.

[Cooler Heads Prevail]

This is Janssen's last year under contract bud.

 

And under a Jays plan to contend in 2014 he's a welcome asset on this team. Numerous teams are looking for reliable closers right now,

and many posts on here are basically giving him away just because we have other candidates. There is no harm in just letting Janssen and

Rasmus play out their contract and spend the money saved on filling their other needs.

Edited October 26, 2013 by Cooler Heads Prevail

[GD]

and many posts on here are basically giving him away just because we have other candidates.

 

wat

[jays_fever]

1.) Corner OF > 1B

2.) Bautista had a 7.6 UZR/150 this year.

 

1) Not by much, like I said he doesnt play a preium defensive position, and not well so he doesnt lose much value. He should be shifted to 1st here.

2) UZR over a 1 year sample is a crap stat. He's -2.8 from 2010 to 2013. He didnt suddenly become a much better defender this year

[GD]

1) Not by much, like I said he doesnt play a preium defensive position, and not well so he doesnt lose much value. He should be shifted to 1st here.

2) UZR over a 1 year sample is a crap stat. He's -2.8 from 2010 to 2013. He didnt suddenly become a much better defender this year

 

That's worth half a win. I wouldn't just shrug that off.

Yeah but it isn't terrible.

[jays_fever]

It could go either way. He'd take a 0.5-win positional hit by moving to 1B, and his bat wouldn't pay quite as well, but there was only a 5% difference between RF RC+ and 1B wRC+ in 2013. Very possible he makes up the difference in both areas by being a very good 1B defender, and might even be a more valuable player overall. I think it just depends where you have the biggest hole - he probably provides about the same value in either spot. Unless his range falls off the table, which could very well happen.

 

He would make sense as a 1B for Texas, but I'd be absolutely shocked if they were willing to part with Holland for him.

 

This may just be me talking out of my ass and probably is, but it looks like the first base market has rapidly declined recently. Adam Lind's bat was almost a league average in 2011/2012. It just doesnt seem like theres a group of slugging first basemen anymore, while theres decent bats you could just plug in the outfield and they wont embarrass themselves out there. It just doesnt seem like a big deal to put Bautista at first for me because it isnt really stopping a team from going out and signing another big time bat, simply because there arent any out there anymore ( big time FA's not withstanding)

[GD]

I don't think its just you. If someone were inclined to plot 1B wRC+ by year you'd probably find a recent drop of like 5%.

 

That sounds about right. But then again league offense as a whole is declining, I believe, so that's unsurprising.

[Nox]

Rasmus has a year of control left and is a prime extension candidate. Definitely some value in his contact as well

 

You said it yourself. He has 1 year left of control. The value CR as a baseball asset is very limited because of that.

 

As my history on here would clearly indicate, I f***ing hate committing anything longish term to arms but even I can say that Derek Holland is far more valuable an asset than Colby Rasmus at the given time.

[Boxcar]

And under a Jays plan to contend in 2014 he's a welcome asset on this team. Numerous teams are looking for reliable closers right now,

and many posts on here are basically giving him away just because we have other candidates. There is no harm in just letting Janssen and

Rasmus play out their contract and spend the money saved on filling their needs.

 

The way this team uses closers should be: take a good reliever, let him be the closer and rack up saves, trade him and replace with the next best guy.

 

Only idiot GMs give 10 million to a reliever.

[GD]

Different things. 1B offense has declined a bit relative to the rest of the league. That's why I had wRC+ there and not wOBA or womething.

 

Oh, sorry, I misunderstood.

 

Speaking of drop-offs in first basemen and idiots who give 10m to relievers, Ryan Howard's contract looks hilarious right now.

[GD]

This should be done every year. Free assets! Janssen traded this year. Delabar traded next year after a 35-save season, and so on.

 

Beane has made a bit of a game out of this, has he not? I know he did it with Bailey, at least. It's a great way to game the system.

[GD]

I really can't even begin to understand what was going through RA's mind at the time. So egregious. So indefensible. He's basically an Adam Lind bat.

 

They're projected for identical wRC+'s and a 5 point difference in wOBA.

 

Imagine paying Adam Lind 25 million dollars a year for the next three years, and you have Ryan Howard. Wow.

[G-Snarls]

The way this team uses closers should be: take a good reliever, let him be the closer and rack up saves, trade him and replace with the next best guy.

 

Only idiot GMs give 10 million to a reliever.

 

Amaro Jr just HAD to have Jonathan Papplebon tho...

[Nox]

Adam Lind is healthier, younger, and probably a better defender and baserunner at this point too.

 

Crazy stat: Howard has been paid $40 million for -0.7 fWAR so far on this deal.

 

We knew it would be bad but that's a bloodbath.

 

And somehow Amaro think he's justified in calling out Ryan Howard.