Sound Familiar?

[jays_fever]

I still wanna know what changed with Alex? Targeting strength up the middle, youth, defence, pitching.....ramming team friendly deals down players throats, stockpiling comp' picks......creative moves (Olivo trade), value trades.......

 

Now.....trade everything for old players who were intended to provide stability and immediate excitement. Not one creative small trade or move. It seems like since money has been made available Alex has become lazy in digging for value

 

It's funny because the Jays are what the fans were ridiculing the Yanks & Sox as not long ago. Old, expensive, mediocre farm teams.

 

That's what happens when a GM is afraid of his job and cares a lot more about the short term success over the future of the franchise. Doesnt help that Beeston clearly just cares about making the playoffs immediately before he retires so he can give himself another pat on the back.

[leaffie]

So where did the following players come from?:

 

Zobrist

Myers -> Shields

Jennings

Moore

Cobb

Hellickson

+ everyone else not named Price or Longoria

 

It's almost like they extracted a f*** tonne of value from both the draft and the trade and free agent markets. Their success has not been a product the previous regime's failures. It takes about 2 minutes of thinking semi-critically to understand that.

 

The Rays owe every bit of success they have had to one man, Friedman.

[leaffie]

One of the problems with the Marlins trade, at least in my view, was that it wasn't a trade they were looking to make. By all accounts AA was inquiring about JJ and it was the Marlins who brought Buehrle into the conversation and then AA apparently brought up Reyes because of the prospects the Marlins asked for. To me, it was a huge overpay when you consider the salaries they took on. The effects of these salaries are easy to see now when they have a 130M payroll just to keep the roster intact, simply ridiculous and it went against everything AA had preached and mostly practiced since he took over.

 

I was surprised that Buerhle wasn't gone at the break this year. I wouldn't be surprised if he is gone this off season.

[Convo]

I was surprised that Buerhle wasn't gone at the break this year. I wouldn't be surprised if he is gone this off season.

 

Who do you think would be dumb enough to pay $18M for a league average pitcher (besides AA)?

[leaffie]

Who do you think would be dumb enough to pay $18M for a league average pitcher (besides AA)?

 

Maybe the same guy that was dumb enough to take on the Wells contract.

[GD]

Who do you think would be dumb enough to pay $18M for a league average pitcher (besides AA)?

 

LgAvg SP WAR/200 = 2.3ish. At ~9.5m/WAR, with him at $18m next year, if Buehrle was a league average pitcher, he'd be providing roughly $3.85m of surplus value.

 

And Buehrle was a slightly above average pitcher at 2.5 fWAR (2.4 RA9-WAR if that's how you swing).

[Angrioter]

LgAvg SP WAR/200 = 2.3ish. At ~9.5m/WAR, with him at $18m next year, if Buehrle was a league average pitcher, he'd be providing roughly $3.85m of surplus value.

 

And Buehrle was a slightly above average pitcher at 2.5 fWAR (2.4 RA9-WAR if that's how you swing).

 

Buehrle ~2,5 WAR * 3 years * 5M = 37,5M - 48M (salary) = -10.5 M

 

**The regression wasn't included, I mean, the thing will be worse.

Edited October 3, 2013 by Angrioter

[connorp]

As I think njh mentioned, it's better to specify there's a difference between the value of WAR surplus and what guys actually get paid per WAR on the market

 

Some recent examples are Wilson and Sanchez who got around $17m+ and I think teams that were persuaded by them prob viewed them at least as 3.5-4 WAR guys in the near future.

 

However, MB carries a lot less risk in terms of contract length.. so I think there would be someone willing to take him on but for what would prob come back, I would rather have him stay as I wouldnt trust TOR to reinvest elsewhere. Woudl likely mean they were going back to padding bottom line

[Howard Roark]

I still wanna know what changed with Alex? Targeting strength up the middle, youth, defence, pitching.....ramming team friendly deals down players throats, stockpiling comp' picks......creative moves (Olivo trade), value trades.......

 

Now.....trade everything for old players who were intended to provide stability and immediate excitement. Not one creative small trade or move. It seems like since money has been made available Alex has become lazy in digging for value

 

It's funny because the Jays are what the fans were ridiculing the Yanks & Sox as not long ago. Old, expensive, mediocre farm teams.

 

 

Beeston.

[Howard Roark]

Doesnt help that Beeston clearly just cares about making the playoffs immediately before he retires so he can give himself another pat on the back.

 

As silly as this sounds, I seriously do think that this was the case, to be honest. The second that obese old corpse started running his idiot mouth about us being close, when we were a ~75-win team, I got worried.

 

Watch, in a year or two once both he and Alex get the boot, it'll come out that he was the one pressuring AA to accelerate the program because he wanted to be able to take increased attendance/revenue/ratings figures to his bosses at the board meetings. The decrepit old f*** with the do-nothing job should have kept his nose out of the baseball operations department and stuck to giving handjobs to his Lodge buddies out on the golf course and let his GM do his job without interference.

[G-Snarls]

Watch, in a year or two once both he and Alex get the boot, it'll come out that he was the one pressuring AA to accelerate the program because he wanted to be able to take increased attendance/revenue/ratings figures to his bosses at the board meetings. The decrepit old f*** with the do-nothing job should have kept his nose out of the baseball operations department and stuck to giving handjobs to his Lodge buddies out on the golf course and let his GM do his job without interference.

 

This is just... ick...

[GD]

So if he was worth the money at league average performance and in theory you want 5 SP at league average you should pay 18 mil. Per? That doesn't sound sustainable

 

I believe that 1 WAR is worth 9.5m-ish in value, but 4.5m-ish on the free agent market, but I'm a bit sketchy on that. If BTS or Nox or 49 or someone smarter than me could explain better it'd help.