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Dylan

By Dylan
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burlingtonbandit New Hampshire Fisher Cats

burlingtonbandit

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Posted
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JJ Watt now has as many TD as the top 3 Fantasy RB's (in most drafts) combined. This is why I hate fantasy...but love it at the same time. Picked Houston tonight, still think it has a shot.

 

Colts really should of run away with that one.

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Spanky99
Spanky99

I like our chances this year, Monday night was a smokeshow. I know it was the Saints, but 34-0 is sexy against any team. Rollin' is 100% right.

Spanky99
Spanky99

MVP!!!

Spanky99
Spanky99

They sure did, eh fellas!!! Hahahahaha...  

burlingtonbandit New Hampshire Fisher Cats

burlingtonbandit

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NBA?

 

cf

 

NFL draft picks are way more valuable than NBA in the sense that if you trade a top 5 pick you can get a huge return. A top NBA pick is valuable when there is a superstar draft but other than that draft picks are actually pretty bad. NHL 1st round picks are worth more than NBA picks.

 

I would say an NFL 3rd round pick is as valuable as a NHL or NBA 1st round pick.

burlingtonbandit New Hampshire Fisher Cats

burlingtonbandit

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I didn't see a NCAA thread on here so I guess this is the thread to post about it. What a f***in game between FL ST and ND. ND got robbed big time there. So many picks go uncalled and then they call that one on the game winning play?

 

Winston is probably going to celebrate by firing off his pellet gun all night then cap it off by stealing some crab legs.

jays4life19 MVP

jays4life19

Old-Timey Member
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Who does everyone like today? Had a tough time picking a team in my suicide pool but finally decided on Seattle.

 

I'll do the board a favour and won't post my point spread picks today. lol. God, ive been bad this year.

burlingtonbandit New Hampshire Fisher Cats

burlingtonbandit

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Who does everyone like today? Had a tough time picking a team in my suicide pool but finally decided on Seattle.

 

I'll do the board a favour and won't post my point spread picks today. lol. God, ive been bad this year.

 

Vegas is pretty smart. Less than 1% of people can consistently make money on the NFL over a large sample.

burlingtonbandit New Hampshire Fisher Cats

burlingtonbandit

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Who does everyone like today? Had a tough time picking a team in my suicide pool but finally decided on Seattle.

 

I'll do the board a favour and won't post my point spread picks today. lol. God, ive been bad this year.

 

Lol its obviously early but seems nothing going your way.

jays4life19 MVP

jays4life19

Old-Timey Member
Posted
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Vegas is pretty smart. Less than 1% of people can consistently make money on the NFL over a large sample.

 

I don't know man. Vegas makes money because they make lines and adjust lines to get 50% of the bet on both sides and thus they take home the 9-10% rake no matter who wins. So when you look at it that way you're not betting against Vegas but rather the public.

 

Ive consistently made money off betting the spreads over the last 6-7 years. My math model has let me down a bit this year, but it tends to get better as the season goes on and i get more information to input. Aslong as you avoid parlay bets and you have a money management system you just need to hit 56-59% of your picks to be very profitable over the season. The general public hits around 44% which is hilarious because you could grab a random off the street who knows nothing about football and would do better then the average sports gambler.

 

And yeah....I'm f***ed with Seattle today. Haha.

connorp New Hampshire Fisher Cats

connorp

Old-Timey Member
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Lol its obviously early but seems nothing going your way.

 

Lol... wonder if he should be offering this good advice on here for free. I'd charge for it

burlingtonbandit New Hampshire Fisher Cats

burlingtonbandit

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Lo-f***ing-l Dalton, talk about a putrid half of football.

 

e: 8/19 for 23 yards

 

Bengals shouldn't even of had a first down all half. They literally converted one FD and it was with 30 sec left in the half.

burlingtonbandit New Hampshire Fisher Cats

burlingtonbandit

Old-Timey Member
Posted
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I don't know man. Vegas makes money because they make lines and adjust lines to get 50% of the bet on both sides and thus they take home the 9-10% rake no matter who wins. So when you look at it that way you're not betting against Vegas but rather the public.

 

Ive consistently made money off betting the spreads over the last 6-7 years. My math model has let me down a bit this year, but it tends to get better as the season goes on and i get more information to input. Aslong as you avoid parlay bets and you have a money management system you just need to hit 56-59% of your picks to be very profitable over the season. The general public hits around 44% which is hilarious because you could grab a random off the street who knows nothing about football and would do better then the average sports gambler.

 

And yeah....I'm f***ed with Seattle today. Haha.

 

Maybe you are one of the 1% then. Vegas will always make money but there are so many people put there who think they know the NFL and really don't.If I had enough money I would probably just pay for one of the best cappers out there. And even then there is a ton of risk as you would have to be betting such large amounts to make money.

jays4life19 MVP

jays4life19

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Maybe you are one of the 1% then. Vegas will always make money but there are so many people put there who think they know the NFL and really don't.If I had enough money I would probably just pay for one of the best cappers out there. And even then there is a ton of risk as you would have to be betting such large amounts to make money.

 

Where did you come up with the 1% number? I don't think that's true. I know the general public loses money on average because the sharps put big money on one side and typically the general public is on the other side. Then Vegas is laughing because they take home their 10% commission.

 

One of my rules of betting is when the public is 80% on one side of the game and the line doesn't budge i bet heavy (4-5 units) on the opposite because i know the sharps have huge money on the other side... regardless of what my math model and situational analysis says.

burlingtonbandit New Hampshire Fisher Cats

burlingtonbandit

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Where did you come up with the 1% number? I don't think that's true. I know the general public loses money on average because the sharps put big money on one side and typically the general public is on the other side. Then Vegas is laughing because they take home their 10% commission.

 

One of my rules of betting is when the public is 80% on one side of the game and the line doesn't budge i bet heavy (4-5 units) on the opposite because i know the sharps have huge money on the other side... regardless of what my math model and situational analysis says.

 

Bob Voulgaris I believe said it but it is probably higher than 1%. I agree about the public over 80% thing. I mean look at Seattle this week...

jays4life19 MVP

jays4life19

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Bob Voulgaris I believe said it but it is probably higher than 1%. I agree about the public over 80% thing. I mean look at Seattle this week...

 

Heh. Yeah. 86% of the public bet was on Seattle. My math model had them as a 9.6 point favourite. The line moved down a half a point once Harvin was traded which made me ignore my rules of my 80+% rule when the line doesn't move.

 

Sharps loved the Jags and Rams today and their cashing out big.

jays4life19 MVP

jays4life19

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

Sharps are putting huge money on the Saints today for whatever it's worth. I'm hesitant to put big money on it because the Saints are so banged up but the public/Squares is 80+% on Greenbay and the line actually moved down a half a point because of the huge money from the sharps.

 

I think I'll lay 3 units on it.

 

Who's everyone betting on today?

burlingtonbandit New Hampshire Fisher Cats

burlingtonbandit

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Sharps are putting huge money on the Saints today for whatever it's worth. I'm hesitant to put big money on it because the Saints are so banged up but the public/Squares is 80+% on Greenbay and the line actually moved down a half a point because of the huge money from the sharps.

 

I think I'll lay 3 units on it.

 

Who's everyone betting on today?

 

I could see the Saints coming through. Completely different team at home then on the road. Not betting anything but I could see Indy beating Pit pretty big. The Defence has been lights out lately but this could be a trap game and Pit pull out the victory. Public is heavily on the Colts though too.

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