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Bautista done for season.

Ziggyy108

By Ziggyy108
in Toronto Blue Jays Talk

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The Cats Ass Buffalo Bisons

The Cats Ass

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It's just a better idea to give them the rest of the season to rest, instead of bringing them back to try to win games. They should put Reyes on the DL too.
Cooler Heads Prevail College Ball

Cooler Heads Prevail

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Back to back seasons that JB will finish the season on the DL.

 

The decline continues :D

 

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-bautista-done-for-season/

 

At what age did Paul Molitar and Joe Carter start "declining" ? How many position players on recent Yankee and Red Sox pennant winners

were older then Bautista is now ? Could it be that speculating on "decline" is a hazardous guessing game and if you have someone on a nice

contract its pretty pointless unless someone offers you an unbelievable can't miss trade for that player ?

Cooler Heads Prevail College Ball

Cooler Heads Prevail

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Two years at MVP type levels are not a good baseline unless he's a Hall of Fame type player and those are pretty rare. Rather then "declining", I think he's settled down into a 25-30 HR / 75-90 RBI type player ( even with the injuries ) which is still pretty valuable and it wouldn't surprise me if we get 3 more years of roughly this level of play.

 

The injuries are a real concern, but the performance when healthy isn't in my opinion. His contract is ideal given the risks. Trading him for Profar, for example, a move many have speculated here, merely shifts the risks from one type of risk to another. Obviously, if you expect to win next year, Bautista is a better option, but if you expect to win in 2016-2018 well Profar might be worth gambling on. More likely the real offers out there are exchanging one aging veteran for another. For example, somebody like Cliff Lee might be in play.

 

I looked up the ex-Jays. Molitar was still of value at age 40 ( a true ironman ) and Carter at age 37 ( a nice season at age 36 ). Realistically,

Bautista would be more like Carter so I expect somewhere between 3-5 more productive years if stays ( sort of ) healthy.

Edited by Cooler Heads Prevail
TBJ12 Draft Eligible

TBJ12

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I assume Bautista would be playing if the Jays were still in contention, same goes for Rasmus.

 

Big questions going forward with Bautista

 

I'm not exactly sure what the big questions are with Bautista? He provided 4.2 WAR in just 118 games this season. What more do you want for $14M?

 

Do you ever say anything positive about a player or this team? Your almost as bad as high85 ffs.

GD MVP

GD

Old-Timey Member
Posted
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4.2 WAR in just 118 games this season.

 

And there's your problem right there.

 

Lol @ almost as bad as high

Abomination Buffalo Bisons

Abomination

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That's really just semantics though. Whether or not you want to call it decline, Bautista's skills seem to have eroded a bit. We're talking about a guy who had a 173 wRC+ and 14.3 fWAR over a 2-year span and was widely considered to be a top-3 player in the game. In the two years since he's at a 136 wRC+ and 7.2 fWAR.

 

He's 32, and has battled both injury and an erosion of skills. That isn't to say they won't remain static for a few years, or that he's not still a very good player. There has undoubtedly been some decline though.

 

I'm not so sure there's an erosion of skill as much as a balancing out between adjustments made by Jose and by the league. His true talent level is probably the 130ish ops+ we've seen the past 2 years. That may erode slightly going forward, but I doubt it'll be significant for a few more years.

Olerud363 FCL Blue Jays

Olerud363

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Two years at MVP type levels are not a good baseline unless he's a Hall of Fame type player and those are pretty rare. Rather then "declining", I think he's settled down into a 25-30 HR / 75-90 RBI type player ( even with the injuries ) which is still pretty valuable and it wouldn't surprise me if we get 3 more years of roughly this level of play.

 

The injuries are a real concern, but the performance when healthy isn't in my opinion. His contract is ideal given the risks. Trading him for Profar, for example, a move many have speculated here, merely shifts the risks from one type of risk to another. Obviously, if you expect to win next year, Bautista is a better option, but if you expect to win in 2016-2018 well Profar might be worth gambling on. More likely the real offers out there are exchanging one aging veteran for another. For example, somebody like Cliff Lee might be in play.

 

I looked up the ex-Jays. Molitar was still of value at age 40 ( a true ironman ) and Carter at age 37 ( a nice season at age 36 ). Realistically,

Bautista would be more like Carter so I expect somewhere between 3-5 more productive years if stays ( sort of ) healthy.

 

Carter was pretty much done at Bautista's age (33).... He did hit a world series homer ofcourse. But his WAR at age 31 was 4.7, then 2.5 at 32... then went 2, 0,7, -0.2, -0.5, -0.8.

 

Bautista is not Carter, he is starting at a higher level... but he is also more injury prone.

 

If he declines at the same rate as Carter will quickly be a 3 or 4 WAR player per 162... but that become maybe 2 if he plays 100.

 

I doubt Bautista's WAR goes negative like Carters quickly did, but with injuries he might only provide a WAR or 2 a year going forward.

 

Molitor on the other hand had a great run starting at Bautista's age... averaging about 5 WAR over a 5 year period from age 33 to 37. At age 33 he was still struggling with injuries. Then he started DHing atleast 100 games a year. No more injury problems. Might be a good idea to convince Bautista it is time to DH.

Dick_Pole FCL Blue Jays

Dick_Pole

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It's too bad Bautista is so injury prone already. I would have thought that with him being a late bloomer and with his fairly small frame that he could be one of those guys that are productive late in his career. It doesn't look too likely now.
Boxcar All-Star

Boxcar

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At what age did Paul Molitar and Joe Carter start "declining" ? How many position players on recent Yankee and Red Sox pennant winners

were older then Bautista is now ? Could it be that speculating on "decline" is a hazardous guessing game and if you have someone on a nice

contract its pretty pointless unless someone offers you an unbelievable can't miss trade for that player ?

 

It's hard to see when Joe Carter started declining since he was a really terrible player to begin with.

Caper FCL Blue Jays

Caper

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It's hard to see when Joe Carter started declining since he was a really terrible player to begin with.

 

Yes...4 time all-star... I guess that defines really terrible.

 

Caper FCL Blue Jays

Caper

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Posted

 

 

 

And also, you cited an article that talked about the 5 worst 20/20 seasons..... Joe Carter's 1991 year was there... he ops'd under .700. But of course you fail to use the next 4 years where he ops's over .800, which, though not great, is pretty f***in good.

The Cats Ass Buffalo Bisons

The Cats Ass

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Ok... hold on... I'm trying to figure out who hit the 1993 walk off world series homer again.

 

Aaron Boone hit a walkoff homer in a game 7... Doesn't mean he was good...

TBJ12 Draft Eligible

TBJ12

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Aaron Boone hit a walkoff homer in a game 7... Doesn't mean he was good...

 

That was in the ALCS not the World Series, big difference. Carter's homerun is widely considered one of the greatest homeruns in World Series history. I'm not about to say Carter was a superstar but he was a good player and a major part of this teams two World Series championships.

Olerud363 FCL Blue Jays

Olerud363

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That was in the ALCS not the World Series, big difference. Carter's homerun is widely considered one of the greatest homeruns in World Series history. I'm not about to say Carter was a superstar but he was a good player and a major part of this teams two World Series championships.

 

This is wrong. Joe Carter was an exceptional player in 1991. Otherwise he was a replacable part from 92-94. From 95 to 97 Joe Carter was damaging the franchise creating negative value.

 

The entire mess we are in right now (I do believe) is because the franchise is being run by someone who doesn't understand numbers (Paul Beeston). Who can't believe that "clutch" Joe was so/so from 92-94 and incompetent from 95-97.

 

Every single person in the universe needs to understand without doubt the truth about Joe Carter.. only then when we all understand will Rogers also understand and finally rid us of Paul Beeston.

 

In 1992 Joe Carter was 6th in Blue Jays position players in value... behind Alomar, White, Winfield, Olerud and Manny Lee. Manny Lee. Manny Lee was more valueble then Joe carter in 1992.

 

Per 162 games Maldonado and Jeff Kent were also better then Joe.

 

In 1993 Joe was also 6th in terms of total WAR among position players. With notables such as Rob Butler ahead in WAR/162.

 

In 1993 John Olerud was 4 times as good as Joe. Alomar, Molitor, and White were 3 times as good. Olerud had almost 8 WAR, Alomar, Molitor, White were at 6... great players. Joe was at 2... repacable part.

 

Joe could of disapeared after 1992 and it wouldn't of made much of a difference. You get into a little bit of butterfly effect (maybe the World Series ending would of been more ordinary... or maybe Alfredo Griffin wins it with a triple... more exciting... "take a bow Alfredo... you will never get a bigger hit").

 

Anway, without Joe the Jays would of still made the 93 playoffs, probably won a couple of more games actually... Joe's replacement would of very likely been better. For example Joe signs with KC after 92, Jays trade with Mets to get Bonilla instead, Bonilla is worth a win or 2 more.

 

Given his contract and who his replacement could of been with that money Joe was likely costing the Jays a win or two a year between 92 and 94 and 4 or 5 wins a year between 95 and 97.

 

Joe Carter signifies the insanely flawed thinking of Paul Beeston. The only way to fight Beeston and return the blue jays to glory is for all of us to understand the truth about Joe. Despite providing us with an extra ordinary moment Joe was a very ordinary player... insert slightly below average slugger here... Joe Carter - replacable part.

TBJ12 Draft Eligible

TBJ12

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No I wasn't wrong. I said Carter wasn't a superstar but that he was a big part of the WS teams. He put up 4.9 WAR between 92 and 93 that's not replacement level. Being 6th in value doesn't mean s***, it's not his fault the team was so f***ing good.
Olerud363 FCL Blue Jays

Olerud363

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No I wasn't wrong. I said Carter wasn't a superstar but that he was a big part of the WS teams. He put up 4.9 WAR between 92 and 93 that's not replacement level. Being 6th in value doesn't mean s***, it's not his fault the team was so f***ing good.

 

Keep in mind his salary... You are saying that using 4.5 million a year in 92 dollars doesn't get you something equal or better to Carter??

He was a replacable part. His salary gets you something equal or better very, very easily.

 

If Alomar disapeared you do not get another Alomar for Alomar's money, if Olerud disapears you do not get another Olerud very easily.

 

If Winfield/Molitor disapears... it gets hard to replace them easily. That's why they were great pickups. It is hard to get a veteran DH who can still take a lot of walks, hit for average.

 

If Carter disapears for 92 and 93 can you get 4.5 WAR for the 9 million we paid him. Yes.

 

If Winfield/Molitor aren't there in 92 93 can you get 10 WAR for the 5.7 million we paid them?? Maybe. But difficult.

 

Carter could of been easily replaced. This is so ridiculous. We have Beeston because people like you refuse to use simple numbers. Numbers like 3, and 6, and 4.

 

All you need to do is say 4.5 WAR for 9 million (93 dollars)?? Good deal?? Irreplacable?? NO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Christ. The fans deserve this.

 

Clutch Joe. Shake Beeston's hand. Way to go Cito!!! Just such a ******** culture around this team.

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Jays

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Keep in mind his salary... You are saying that using 4.5 million a year in 92 dollars doesn't get you something equal or better to Carter??

He was a replacable part. His salary gets you something equal or better very, very easily.

 

If Alomar disapeared you do not get another Alomar for Alomar's money, if Olerud disapears you do not get another Olerud very easily.

 

If Winfield/Molitor disapears... it gets hard to replace them easily. That's why they were great pickups. It is hard to get a veteran DH who can still take a lot of walks, hit for average.

 

If Carter disapears for 92 and 93 can you get 4.5 WAR for the 9 million we paid him. Yes.

 

If Winfield/Molitor aren't there in 92 93 can you get 10 WAR for the 5.7 million we paid them?? Maybe. But difficult.

 

Carter could of been easily replaced. This is so ridiculous. We have Beeston because people like you refuse to use simple numbers. Numbers like 3, and 6, and 4.

 

All you need to do is say 4.5 WAR for 9 million (93 dollars)?? Good deal?? Irreplacable?? NO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Christ. The fans deserve this.

 

Clutch Joe. Shake Beeston's hand. Way to go Cito!!! Just such a ******** culture around this team.

 

Is it any wonder why we haven't made the playoffs in 20 years?

Caper FCL Blue Jays

Caper

Verified Member
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You also have to understand that Joe Carter spent all of 93 intentionally putting up sub par numbers. He wanted to make sure he got a pitch to hit if he was to ever find himself in a big clutch situation...... his lower numbers was all part of his genius.
Olerud363 FCL Blue Jays

Olerud363

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Is it any wonder why we haven't made the playoffs in 20 years?

 

Yes. Management thinks like some of these fans. This guy that likes Joe Carter... his thinking is on par with Beeston's.

 

(note I don't blame AA... AA is a clever 30something... clever enough to game the draft pick system a while back to get extra picks... also clever enough to become Gm at 33... this means he is very good at figuring out how to get guys like Beeston to like him... so it starts and ends with Beeston, AA is just doing what gets him "the job").

 

So anyway.... Our rivals. Boston, Tamba, NY, are run by guys with true trader and business backgrounds... Beeston on the other hand is essentially a politician.

 

John Henry (owner of the red sox) knows trading... Joe Carter at 1.5 million dollars a year?? Maybe... kind of like some real estate at a good price. Joe Carter at 4.5 million (93 dollars) a year?? No way.

 

Johnson, Buehrle, Reyes, Dickey at x dollars and x young players?? Henry... I'll pass. Beeston "clutch vets... yes!!!!"

 

It all fails. Beeston "Cito old buddy, they don't make 'em clutch like Joe anymore... maybe next year we should go for Soriano?? That guy is clutch I think."

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