Can Ryan Goins stick?

[eastcoastjaysfan]

Not reading this thread... But I'm hoping that some people are also of the mindset that Izturis will be A LOT better this year. Guy goes from a 1.5-2 win player to a complete bag of s*** in one season. There were probably some underlying health issues going on or something. He's not this bad.

[KingKat]

The LD rate was identical. The biggest difference is Alcides slapped the ball on the ground more in '12.

 

That's the biggest diffence between 12 and 13. The biggest difference between 11 and 12 was the line drive increase.

[KingKat]

Not reading this thread... But I'm hoping that some people are also of the mindset that Izturis will be A LOT better this year. Guy goes from a 1.5-2 win player to a complete bag of s*** in one season. There were probably some underlying health issues going on or something. He's not this bad.

 

He was coming off a career worst season last year. He'll probably get a bit of a dead cat's bounce but he's clearly on the decline and he can't seem to play on turf at all. He's probably still pretty bad.

[KingKat]

Guys, he didn't have a one year true-talent BABIP increase to 0.344 when his career BABIP average outside that one season is 0.276 and he's projected to be in the 0.280-0.290 range next year, lol.

 

Not saying his true talent BABIP is 0.344. What I am saying is that Seitzer is not out to lunch. The quality of contact improvement he speaks of is right there in the stats.

[Angrioter]

"Alcides Escobar hit [low .200s] in Kansas City and they were like, 'What do you think he can hit?'" Seitzer said. "I said .280-.290. They said, 'If you can get him to hit even .250, that would be huge.' I was like, 'I'm telling you, he has special hands. He just has a thing where he loops and collapses [his swing], but if I can get him down and through, get that loop out of his swing, he's going to have a chance to hit .280, .290, because he has great hands.'

 

"He went out and hit [.293] the very next year. I see Ryan Goins having that potential. Seeing him apply in a game has yet to be seen, but the adjustments that he made and the drills that I put him through last weekend when he hadn't seen any live pitching very much impressed me."

 

Alcides Escobar:

 

2011 = 4.2% BB rate, 12.2% K rate, 254/290/343, 0.285 BABIP

2012 = 4.2% BB rate, 15.4% K rate, 293/331/390, 0.344 BABIP

 

It's kind of amazing that even people who have worked in baseball their whole lives can be so ignorant when it comes to interpreting what they see on the field. Is it too much to ask that a major league hitting coach can spot a BABIP-fueled spike in batting average? I get that he's not going to tell the media that Escobar was lucky in 2012, but he looks like an idiot giving himself a pat on the back for it.

 

Alcides

2011 = 1.86 GB/FB, 18% LD and 21.9 %Bunt Hit Percentage

2012 = 2.25 GB/FB, 23% LD and.......................................40.7% Bunt Hit Percentage

 

Apparently, the credit should be to Alcides legs.

Can Goins run? - NO

[theblujay]

That's not really saying much. He's an upgrade defensively, a downgrade offensively and should be a bench player at best. In a "contending year" we cannot afford to have any more of these projects that are bound to fail. It's terrible player evaluation and roster management.

Lol.

 

"that are bound to fail"---You're mind is certainly made up

[GD]

The .293 AVG year his BABIP was .344, his carer BABIP is .293.

 

That's not xBABIP.

[DuckDuckGose]

That's the biggest diffence between 12 and 13. The biggest difference between 11 and 12 was the line drive increase.

 

And a huge 50% spike in his HR/FB rate.

[DuckDuckGose]

That's not xBABIP.

 

I know. I didn't say it was.

[Angrioter]

Then there's nothing left to discuss.

 

A guy that can run put the ball on ground more frequently (21.9% Vs 40.7% Bunt Hit)

[Smedley Butler]

Didn't that quick and dirty projection somebody posted yesterday have him at 2 WAR this year? ;-)

[theblujay]

I think I have Goins pegged for like 1-2 WAR somewhere like 30 pages back.

[ElNik2013]

It's interesting that many of us picked the team to win between 86-92 games even though they planned on platooning Bonifacio and Izturis at 2B. So now, it'll be Goins and Izturis, is this that much worse? I think if the rest of the team stays healthy, and I know that's unlikely, then I think they can live with Goins/Kawasaki/Izturis.

 

For the record, I wanted them to sign Infante or Ellis, but that's gone out the window. At this point, they're probably thinking of replacing JJ and hoping for healthy seasons from Morrow, Lawrie, Reyes, Bautista, EE, Rasmus and the improved SP depth to provide a boost.

[Fearthedoc]

I think if the rest of the team stays healthy, and I know that's unlikely, then I think they can live with Goins/Kawasaki/Izturis.

 

A weak 2B can be compensated for if you have no other black holes on the team. Last year, we believed we had one of the top rotations in the league with 7 average to above average hitters in the lineup.

 

This year, as of right now, we clearly have serious holes in the rotation. We can't afford to get nothing (or less than nothing) out of 2B.

[Laika]

Slow down there... That's not an entirely fair analysis. You have dismissed the possibility of an improvement in quality of contact and just assumed luck. He had a 5% increase in line drive percentage and a correspoing 5$ drop in fly ball percentage. That has to account for some of it and on the surface, it's consistent with what Seitzer is saying.

 

Almost every BABIP spike (or dip) comes with a correlated rise/fall in LD%.

 

LD% is a dubious stat.

 

I'm saying this off the cuff here, but I feel that it's not like players who get BABIP lucky have a s*** ton of little loopers and lazy fly-balls drop in. No, the players who get BABIP lucky tend to get credited with an unsustainable amount of line drives. Some of this is quality contact that's above their true talent, and some of it might be stringer bias (tendency to call a single a LD, while a fielded ball might have been called a groundout or whatever).

[Smokey]

It's interesting that many of us picked the team to win between 86-92 games even though they planned on platooning Bonifacio and Izturis at 2B. So now, it'll be Goins and Izturis, is this that much worse? I think if the rest of the team stays healthy, and I know that's unlikely, then I think they can live with Goins/Kawasaki/Izturis.

 

I don't really find it all that interesting. Last years team, if healthy, could have still missed the playoffs by just a few games and it would have become more clear that experimenting with a key position during an "all-in" season isn't really a good idea. Unfortunately, this FO still hasn't learned its lesson.

[Fearthedoc]

I think I saw the stat BABIP used 5000+ times in regards to Aaron Hill throughout the 2010 season.

[ElNik2013]

A weak 2B can be compensated for if you have no other black holes on the team. Last year, we believed we had one of the top rotations in the league with 7 average to above average hitters in the lineup.

 

This year, as of right now, we clearly have serious holes in the rotation. We can't afford to get nothing (or less than nothing) out of 2B.

 

 

All that's changed from last year is that they're a year older, assuming they sign a comparable replacement for JJ. Morrow was as much a wild card as he is this year. I seem to remember several happy with the fact that Romero and Happ could be the 5th and 6th starters.

 

The offense is basically intact. I seem to remember that several thought that the key to the offense was Rasmus and Lind having good years. As it turned out, they both had good years, but Reyes, Lawrie, Bautista, Cabrera and EE missed significant time. Don't get me wrong, I wanted an upgrade at 2B, but I think the big difference going into last year was that they looked good on paper and now that we saw them s*** the bed, we're very pessimistic.

 

No matter what, they'll need good health. Kawasaki did a decent job replacing Reyes and he could end up platooning with Izturis and at least he gets on base against righties. Hey, gotta have some hope.

[ElNik2013]

I don't really find it all that interesting. Last years team, if healthy, could have still missed the playoffs by just a few games and it would have become more clear that experimenting with a key position during an "all-in" season isn't really a good idea. Unfortunately, this FO still hasn't learned its lesson.

 

 

If they had missed the playoffs by just a few games, we wouldn't be as down on the team and they would likely have more money to spend. It would mean that they stayed relatively healthy and performed up to their projections or close to it and it would be easier for a bottom 10 FO to see where the improvements need to be made. Given that they had so many injuries, it makes it harder for this FO to see where the holes are and makes it easier to just blame it on injuries. At the end of the day, I actually think this franchise would be thrilled with a WC run as that would keep attendance and ratings into September and ultimately, I think that's their main goal.

[Fearthedoc]

All that's changed from last year is that they're a year older, assuming they sign a comparable replacement for JJ. Morrow was as much a wild card as he is this year. I seem to remember several happy with the fact that Romero and Happ could be the 5th and 6th starters.

 

The offense is basically intact. I seem to remember that several thought that the key to the offense was Rasmus and Lind having good years. As it turned out, they both had good years, but Reyes, Lawrie, Bautista, Cabrera and EE missed significant time. Don't get me wrong, I wanted an upgrade at 2B, but I think the big difference going into last year was that they looked good on paper and now that we saw them s*** the bed, we're very pessimistic.

 

No matter what, they'll need good health. Kawasaki did a decent job replacing Reyes and he could end up platooning with Izturis and at least he gets on base against righties. Hey, gotta have some hope.

 

It's true that we're not that much different, but our confidence in the current assets is what's changed. The upside in certain pitchers is gone.

 

Dickey -- Was coming off a phenomenal year. Now he's coming off a year where we saw his velocity drop and witnessed him getting rocked at the Rogers Center. He's still a safe bet for 200+ innings though.

Morrow -- Was coming off his third straight quality season where he lowered his BB/9 to below 3. Now, he's coming off injury and his strikeout rate declined for the 3rd straight year.

Buehrle -- What we expected. Nothing has changed here.

Johnson -- We were expecting another #1/#2 in the rotation. He s*** the bed. This year we currently have no replacement.

Romero -- Most of us expected he was done, but there was still that small possibility for a comeback. Now, the fat lady has sung.

 

As for the lineup, it's pretty much the same. We're expecting less from Cabrera than we did a year ago, but that's offset by expecting more from Rasmus.

 

All in all, the rotation is what makes me much more pessimistic going into this season than last.

[theblujay]

It's true that we're not that much different, but our confidence in the current assets is what's changed. The upside in certain pitchers is gone.

 

Dickey -- Was coming off a phenomenal year. Now he's coming off a year where we saw his velocity drop and witnessed him getting rocked at the Rogers Center. He's still a safe bet for 200+ innings though.

Morrow -- Was coming off his third straight quality season where he lowered his BB/9 to below 3. Now, he's coming off injury and his strikeout rate declined for the 3rd straight year.

Buehrle -- What we expected. Nothing has changed here.

Johnson -- We were expecting another #1/#2 in the rotation. He s*** the bed. This year we currently have no replacement.

Romero -- Most of us expected he was done, but there was still that small possibility for a comeback. Now, the fat lady has sung.

 

As for the lineup, it's pretty much the same. We're expecting less from Cabrera than we did a year ago, but that's offset by expecting more from Rasmus.

 

All in all, the rotation is what makes me much more pessimistic going into this season than last.

 

Replace Romero with Nolin/Redmond and then Stroman as a wildcard and its looks OK on the backend. I think we can expect more from Morrow considering we got nothing last year

[Jimcanuck]

Stroman > JJ

Happ > Romero

[Fearthedoc]

Replace Romero with Nolin/Redmond and then Stroman as a wildcard and its looks OK on the backend. I think we can expect more from Morrow considering we got nothing last year

 

Yeah we can definitely expect more from Morrow than we got last year. I'm just saying that before last year, we we're expecting more from 2013 than we are currently expecting from 2014.

 

That was confusing to type.

[KingKat]

 

LD% is a dubious stat.

 

 

Well there goes my whole argument. The LD% and the high rate of bunt hits are literally the only improvements he made in 2012. I still think it's wrong to just look at hitter's BABIP and assume luck but there's not necessarily much else here. Seitzer may be right about the quality of contact or he and the stringers may just be victims of confirmation bias. I guess it's not as conclusive as I thought. It would be interesting to do a BB piece on Seitzer and break down the batted ball numbers for all the KC hitters he supposedly fixed.

[Angrioter]

Stroman > JJ

Happ > Romero

 

EE 2013 > EE 2014

Rasmus 2013 > Rasmus 2014

[connorp]

Thread title should be changed to "The Herpes Thread" in honor of its persistence to exist

[Jimcanuck]

EE 2013 > EE 2014

Rasmus 2013 > Rasmus 2014

 

Disagree.... both will be better in 2014

 

Hope springs eternal

[Fearthedoc]

I'm estimating that we need 90 wins to make the playoffs next year. We finished with 74 wins in 2013.

 

We can talk about certain players outperforming their 2013 all we want, but it's a simple question. Are we 14 wins better than we were last season? The obvious answer is no. With the current roster, playoffs aren't realistic.

[Jimcanuck]

Not realistic, agree

 

Needed:

 

Morrow has to be healthy and have his 2012 form

Stroman has to be a ROY contender

Lawrie, Bautista, and Reyes have to stay healthy

Rest of team repeat 2013 stats

 

Oh: and Halladay has to strike out the side in his one game back, and be re-signed for the rest of the year

[Jimcanuck]

Not sure if serious

 

Why not? See McGowan, Dustin