Lawrie comparable best is Gary Shefield

[Olerud363]

So...

 

Trying to convince myself that Lawrie hasn't all ready busted I looked for talented very young players but injury prone to see if they eventually did grow up, stay healthy and put it together.

 

One that came to mind is Gary Shefield. Shefield 91 is very close to Lawrie 2012... Shefield 92 was a complete mess and he got sent to Sandiego... then he almost won the freakin triple crown 1993... the start of basically 15 years of excellence.

 

(edit. I confused the years. Shefield in 90 was about where Lawrie was in 2012. Shefield in 91 was a mess. Shefield broke out in 92)

 

Who else is a good comparable?? Young talented, uhhh let's say excitable players that couldn't keep healthy.

 

Give me the good and bad.... guys who busted... guys who put it together. Trying to get a feel for what we can expect of this type of player**

 

** (keeping in mind that individual results may vary)

Edited June 14, 2013 by Olerud363

[Olerud363]

And before someone goes off their rocker by "best is Gary Shefield" I mean...

 

1. Shefield in 92 is basically what Lawrie is now.

 

(edit Shefield in 91 was about where Lawrie is now. Attitude issues, injury issues, hitting issues all at once. In 92 he broke out.)

 

2. Of this type of player he is the "best" outcome one can imagine. Not that I think Lawrie and Shefield are comparable so it means Lawrie will follow Shefield from this point on (but it would be nice if he did).

Edited June 14, 2013 by Olerud363

[Arkadium]

First off, "allready" is not a word. Otherwise you might have a good comparison here... Lawrie certainly has the talent to turn into this level of player, but I doubt he has the moral fibre to do so. If only he could of kept doing what he was doing when he was first called up, so patient at the plate, waiting for his pitch, taking a walk. It's extremely disappointing that his ego has gotten the better of his game.

[Arkadium]

And before someone goes off their rocker by "best is Gary Shefield" I mean...

 

1. Shefield in 92 is basically what Lawrie is now.

2. Of this type of player he is the "best" outcome one can imagine. Not that I think Lawrie and Shefield are comparable so it means Lawrie will follow Shefield from this point on (but it would be nice if he did).

 

Btw, you are confusing 1991 with 1992 and 1992 with 1993.

[Olerud363]

First off, "allready" is not a word. Otherwise you might have a good comparison here... Lawrie certainly has the talent to turn into this level of player, but I doubt he has the moral fibre to do so. If only he could of kept doing what he was doing when he was first called up, so patient at the plate, waiting for his pitch, taking a walk. It's extremely disappointing that his ego has gotten the better of his game.

 

Whether it is a good comparison does not depend on the grammer. I did fix the mistake. Borderline dyslexic, I am working on it though it is probably to late for me.

 

Interesting points. One major issue I have had is with the apparent Farrel/Murphy mixed messages. A player like Lawrie needs to hear the same message from everybody. Patient at the plate, wait for his pitch, take a walk, crush the mistakes, hit with power to all fields.

 

The mixed messages would be awful for Lawrie. A red bulled maniac in over drive, rip and grip would fit his attitude.... He's the kind of guy that needs all authority figures giving him the same message. He hears mixed messages he'll take the easy, aggressive path (see Arencibia J.P.).

[Olerud363]

Btw, you are confusing 1991 with 1992 and 1992 with 1993.

 

 

You are correct. It was 92 that Shefield had the big year and started his run.

[Olerud363]

First off, "allready" is not a word. Otherwise you might have a good comparison here... Lawrie certainly has the talent to turn into this level of player, but I doubt he has the moral fibre to do so. If only he could of kept doing what he was doing when he was first called up, so patient at the plate, waiting for his pitch, taking a walk. It's extremely disappointing that his ego has gotten the better of his game.

 

Any comparable players you can think of? A young guy, who lost is way, but rebounded??

 

I can think of a lot of young guys who never quite found their way until mid 20s (Delgado being the prime example)... but that's a little different then Lawrie.

[GD]

If you're looking for late bloomers, Jeff Kent?

[z3r0s]

According to Gregg Zaun you just trade him

lol what a nob

[Olerud363]

If you're looking for late bloomers, Jeff Kent?

 

Jeff Kent mid 90s was about where Lawrie was in 2012. But he was sort of always at that level and didn't crater. He just improved significantly in late 20s and 30s, but was never bad or that frustrating.

 

Maybe I'm making the mistake of writing off Lawrie for 2013. Just mentally doing the equation in my head of translating Jays injury reports to reality. So the fact that we haven't heard anything about a rehab stint puts his return in the late August time frame. Given that he won't have any timing final 2013 line is

 

52 games played, .195 7 homers OPS=bad.... Complete crater and destruction of the Brett Lawrie legend.

 

And I'm trying to figure out if he can recover from this.

 

But maybe I'm wrong. I hope I'm wrong. I hope he's back in 10 days and puts together a decent 110 game season. That would be great.

[GD]

Lawrie has a .240 BABIP with a 14.4 LD%, I would expect that to improve at least a little.

[Olerud363]

Adrian Beltre had some bad years, and took a long time to have the superstar season everyone expected (until 25).

 

Then didn't put it together for a multi year run until age 30.

 

However he was so dang healthy that there is no possible way to compare him to Lawrie. In his bad seasons he still played 155 games. After 10 years and 1500 games he had a lot time to practice.

 

Will Lawrie even be able to reach 700 games by age 30?

[DuckDuckGose]

So...

 

Trying to convince myself that Lawrie hasn't all ready busted I looked for talented very young players but injury prone to see if they eventually did grow up, stay healthy and put it together.

 

One that came to mind is Gary Shefield. Shefield 91 is very close to Lawrie 2012... Shefield 92 was a complete mess and he got sent to Sandiego... then he almost won the freakin triple crown 1993... the start of basically 15 years of excellence.

 

(edit. I confused the years. Shefield in 90 was about where Lawrie was in 2012. Shefield in 91 was a mess. Shefield broke out in 92)

 

Who else is a good comparable?? Young talented, uhhh let's say excitable players that couldn't keep healthy.

 

Give me the good and bad.... guys who busted... guys who put it together. Trying to get a feel for what we can expect of this type of player**

 

** (keeping in mind that individual results may vary)

 

Shawn Green...

[DuckDuckGose]

Adrian Beltre had some bad years, and took a long time to have the superstar season everyone expected (until 25).

 

Then didn't put it together for a multi year run until age 30.

 

However he was so dang healthy that there is no possible way to compare him to Lawrie. In his bad seasons he still played 155 games. After 10 years and 1500 games he had a lot time to practice.

 

Will Lawrie even be able to reach 700 games by age 30?

 

I think the key point here is Lawrie is 23 and is still expected to improve for 3-5 more seasons before he hits his prime.

[Olerud363]

Lawrie has a .240 BABIP with a 14.4 LD%, I would expect that to improve at least a little.

 

No question he will improve if healthy.

 

I'm more concerned about his injury issues now then anything else. His missing significant development time, and who know if he will really be healthy when he's back. The guy is an insanely slow healer.

[Olerud363]

I think the key point here is Lawrie is 23 and is still expected to improve for 3-5 more seasons before he hits his prime.

 

No question about that. If healthy,

 

I look at it this way. If he played 150 games hit .250 15 homers, .300 on base percentage, .400 slugging I'd be incredibley excited about his future. Because I'd have confidence he'd improve a lot by 27.

 

The injuries just freak me out though. He is missing development time and now I'm having concerns wether he'll ever be healthy.

 

So looking for talented guys that overcame early injury problems.

[GD]

Hey, Kelly Gruber, would he work? I guess he did eventually succumb to injuries, though, as did Grady Sizemore.

[Olerud363]

Hey, Kelly Gruber, would he work? I guess he did eventually succumb to injuries, though, as did Grady Sizemore.

 

That's a good comparison. It would be great if Lawrie could have a run like Gruber did from 88 to 90.

 

One thing I've said a few times in my old man the sky is falling way is that Lawrie has reached the point Gruber did in 1992... without even having the good years.

[DuckDuckGose]

No question he will improve if healthy.

 

I'm more concerned about his injury issues now then anything else. His missing significant development time, and who know if he will really be healthy when he's back. The guy is an insanely slow healer.

 

Is Lawrie really missing significant development time? I know exactly what you mean, young players need to play, and play lots, in order to improve while they still can. However, in the case of an uber talented 23yo, whose biggest flaws are on the mental side of the game, is playing time as important as the mental lumps Lawrie has taken over the last couple seasons?

 

You don't have to be a scout to see Lawrie is an excellent defender and already posses the elite raw bat speed and power needed to be a successful hitter in the MLB. His approach is way off and he has too much movement in his swing but that can/should be improved over time as no one has ever doubted Lawrie's work ethic. He needs to learn how to take care of his body, to stay consistent, to stay unemotional on the field and to be professional. Those issues (among others, like throwing equipment at umps) point an immature ball player and to a mental side of the game that requires a lot of growth in order for Lawrie to reach his full potential.

 

IMO the struggles over the last year and a half will strengthen Lawrie and make him a better going forward. Obviously, Lawrie needs to make some adjustments when he gets back. The results haven't been there and pro-ball is all about results and making the right adjustments. We have all witnessed that Lawrie has the raw ability and athleticism to be a force on both sides of the ball. However, the question still remains; does Lawrie have the mental fortitude to make adjustments, stay healthy, get through slumps and maximize his results?

[Olerud363]

Hey, Kelly Gruber, would he work? I guess he did eventually succumb to injuries, though, as did Grady Sizemore.

 

Gruber was insanely popular even before his rbi explosion in 1990. I remember in grade 8 some kids were asked if they could name a blue jay... the kids who were "casuals" could name only Kelly Gruber... they didn't even know who George Bell was even though he had won an MVP a couple years before, and was in the middle of contending for another one.

 

I was going to say Gruber was by far the best player in the 1988 to 1990 iteration of the Jays... but that's not true. Fred McGriff was by far the best player... numbers don't look amazing but this was pre-juice era.

 

So after 87 the Moseby/Barfield/Bell outfield collapsed, but out of nowhere came Gruber and McGriff. These guys weren't even drafted by the Jays.

 

Gruber was a rule 5 pick.

 

All the Jays did in those years was collect as many young players as possible. 8 man bullpens, "veteran presence", would be laughed at. Collect young players. Give them a chance. Repeat.

 

Cecil Fielder was thrown away to the tigers (via Japan) and nobody cared that we lost a 50 homer slugger, the Jays were developing so many young players there just wasn't room for them all.

[Olerud363]

Is Lawrie really missing significant development time? I know exactly what you mean, young players need to play, and play lots, in order to improve while they still can. However, in the case of an uber talented 23yo, whose biggest flaws are on the mental side of the game, is playing time as important as the mental lumps Lawrie has taken over the last couple seasons?

 

You don't have to be a scout to see Lawrie is an excellent defender and already posses the elite raw bat speed and power needed to be a successful hitter in the MLB. His approach is way off and he has too much movement in his swing but that can/should be improved over time as no one has ever doubted Lawrie's work ethic. He needs to learn how to take care of his body, to stay consistent, to stay unemotional on the field and to be professional. Those issues (among others, like throwing equipment at umps) point an immature ball player and to a mental side of the game that requires a lot of growth in order for Lawrie to reach his full potential.

 

IMO the struggles over the last year and a half will strengthen Lawrie and make him a better going forward. Obviously, Lawrie needs to make some adjustments when he gets back. The results haven't been there and pro-ball is all about results and making the right adjustments. We have all witnessed that Lawrie has the raw ability and athleticism to be a force on both sides of the ball. However, the question still remains; does Lawrie have the mental fortitude to make adjustments, stay healthy, get through slumps and maximize his results?

 

I haven't read anything technical about injury history in a few years. The last time I looked at it in detail was in a baseball prospectus article several years ago. I can't remember who it was by... I want to say Will Carroll who was their injury expert for a while.

 

His view (as I understand it) was that injuries are correlated. That once a player starts getting injured sometimes it never stops, even if they are different injuries. So these early injury histories are a huge red flag.

 

So from what I've read and from my intuition... just following the game for 20 years my "gut" assessment of Brett Lawries future has gone way down since March.

 

2 more injuries. Each time he's been very slow to heal. In addition to 2 major injuries in 2011, 1 in 2012, all of a sudden it's seems to have reached a level in my mind where I've labeled him injury prone and have huge concerns.

[DuckDuckGose]

I haven't read anything technical about injury history in a few years. The last time I looked at it in detail was in a baseball prospectus article several years ago. I can't remember who it was by... I want to say Will Carroll who was their injury expert for a while.

 

His view (as I understand it) was that injuries are correlated. That once a player starts getting injured sometimes it never stops, even if they are different injuries. So these early injury histories are a huge red flag.

 

So from what I've read and from my intuition... just following the game for 20 years my "gut" assessment of Brett Lawries future has gone way down since March.

 

2 more injuries. Each time he's been very slow to heal. In addition to 2 major injuries in 2011, 1 in 2012, all of a sudden it's seems to have reached a level in my mind where I've labeled him injury prone and have huge concerns.

 

The easy answer is of course they do. Injuries are inevitable. Over the course of a career they will pile up.

[TheHurl]

I said this when he was a prospect and it still holds true IMO. He'll never be a consistent hitter. He was inconsistent as a minor leaguer (from month to month and season to season) all the signs go to that he's "uncoachable" (an exact quote I got from Marty Lehn http://www.forums.mlb.com/n/pfx/forum.aspx?tsn=98&nav=messages&webtag=ml-bluejays&tid=71620). When he's healthy I think his natural abilities take over, when he's not healthy, things don't go as well and he has no ability to make an adjustment. Age may improve his head, but I'd question that. Best comp for him is BJ Upton...BJ has been the most impossible player to predict from year to year.

[gruber92]

Lawrie isn't doing s*** until he changes his approach by keeping his hands quiet at the plate. It's that simple.

[GD]

BJ has been the most impossible player to predict from year to year.

 

Alex Rios?

[TheHurl]

Similar type player, however there are a bunch of Rios' peripheral stats which have remained somewhat consistent, I think with him it was mental (or lacking effort), with Lawrie I don't think we'd ever question his effort.

[Olerud363]

I said this when he was a prospect and it still holds true IMO. He'll never be a consistent hitter. He was inconsistent as a minor leaguer (from month to month and season to season) all the signs go to that he's "uncoachable" (an exact quote I got from Marty Lehn http://www.forums.mlb.com/n/pfx/forum.aspx?tsn=98&nav=messages&webtag=ml-bluejays&tid=71620). When he's healthy I think his natural abilities take over, when he's not healthy, things don't go as well and he has no ability to make an adjustment. Age may improve his head, but I'd question that. Best comp for him is BJ Upton...BJ has been the most impossible player to predict from year to year.

 

You bring up another really interesting point. Often times we evaluate prospects by their latest and greatest season. Get excited when a guy plays well for what is a 5 month run at the most (since minor league seasons or shorter) and sometimes only 4 months if the guy has a couple of injuries.

 

Guys like Rios and Wells actually performed exactly as their minor league stats predicted they would... Both bad and good. Their best years were as their best minor league year predicted. Their worst years as other minor league years predicted.

 

At this point I would take BJ Upton for Lawrie in a heart beat... with his defense at third he would contend for an MVP in the very best year, and be a valueable player in other years.

[Olerud363]

The easy answer is of course they do. Injuries are inevitable. Over the course of a career they will pile up.

 

Not for everybody. Miguel Cabrerra, Prince Fielder, Cal Ripken, Roberto Alomar, no... not so much.

 

Kelly Gruber, Eric Chavez, Grady Sizemore, they piled up.

 

Luck or something else??

[DuckDuckGose]

Not for everybody. Miguel Cabrerra, Prince Fielder, Cal Ripken, Roberto Alomar, no... not so much.

 

Kelly Gruber, Eric Chavez, Grady Sizemore, they piled up.

 

Luck or something else??

 

Luck, pain tolerance, genetics, conditioning, nutrition, fitness, fatigue etc.

[Olerud363]

I said this when he was a prospect and it still holds true IMO. He'll never be a consistent hitter. He was inconsistent as a minor leaguer (from month to month and season to season) all the signs go to that he's "uncoachable" (an exact quote I got from Marty Lehn http://www.forums.mlb.com/n/pfx/forum.aspx?tsn=98&nav=messages&webtag=ml-bluejays&tid=71620). When he's healthy I think his natural abilities take over, when he's not healthy, things don't go as well and he has no ability to make an adjustment. Age may improve his head, but I'd question that. Best comp for him is BJ Upton...BJ has been the most impossible player to predict from year to year.

 

What about Paul Molitor... His younger years were way before my time... As I've heard the story he went from inconsistent injury prone coke-head to the durable and quiet leader we saw in the 90s. It was a remarkable transformation. I can't see Lawrie ever being as quiet and calm as Molitor seemed. But I hope in his own way he grows up.