July 2nd IFA Signing Thread

[ace3113]

Where are they planning on playing all of these shortstops?

 

We signed (from IFAs this year)

 

Gudino

Vasquez

Ramirez

Almonte

 

This is not including players we will be drafting in 2014.

 

Urena/F. Barreto have the Bluefield/GCL spots locked down, I am pretty certain.

 

I think they're following the Rangers model somewhat. The Rangers have Andrus, Profar, Sardinas, Alberto. You can never have too much talent. Plus shortstop is one of the most athletic positions in baseball so if a guy fails there he could conceivably move to a number of different positions.

 

That would leave 4 SS spots to DSL, unless they play on splitting playing time between Gudino/Urena and the other 3 in the DSL.

 

Barreto could easily move to centerfield or second base.

Lugo could move to third or second.

Gudino and Urena have the best chance of the bunch of staying at short and being an above average defender there, and there's a chance at least one of them doesn't make it with the bat, so it's good to have a backup (plus they're not all at the same levels).

 

BTW I finally found some video of the Venezuelan catcher Ricardo Rodriguez who I really hope the Jays sign. Think Franklin Barreto's bat with a plus arm behind the plate.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Z60xDe_ni8

[ace3113]

Lansing - Lugo

Bluefield - Barreto

GCL - Urena/Gudino

DSL - Almonte/Vasquez/Ramirez

 

Yeah, there's a bit of a logjam there. I wonder how they'll distribute playing time between Gudino and Urena. I only really see there bats playing as above average at short to be honest. Too bad we don't have a VSL team.

[ace3113]

Gonna be a hold up on part II of the article. My contact is sending me a ton of info that I now have to sort through before publishing.

[Angrioter]

2013 International Spending By Team

1 Rangers $8.42 million

2 Cubs $8.22 million

3 Dodgers $4.48 million

4 Indians $4.25 million

5 Red Sox $3.98 million

6 Astros $3.86 million

7 Royals $3.61 million

8 Mariners $3.58 million

9 Twins $3.49 million

10 Reds $3.47 million

11 Rockies $3.38 million

12 Diamondbacks $3.18 million

13 Mets $3.13 million

14 Giants $3.00 million

15 Blue Jays $2.95 million

16 Rays $2.83 million

17 Padres $2.73 million

18 White Sox $2.65 million

19 Nationals $2.64 million

20 Pirates $2.58 million

21 Brewers $2.54 million

22 Marlins $2.53 million

23 Phillies $2.46 million

24 Yankees $2.45 million

25 Braves $2.40 million

26 Cardinals $2.30 million

27 Tigers $2.28 million

28 Athletics $2.10 million

29 Angels $1.83 million

30 Orioles $1.23 million

[Angrioter]

International Free Agents: Part II coming out Monday.

 

 

International prospect league to you and me

"Great article on Breakingblue.ca, almost all the players belong to us."

"You will be surprised in the next July 2"

[ace3113]

International prospect league to you and me

"Great article on Breakingblue.ca, almost all the players belong to us."

"You will be surprised in the next July 2"

 

Had to take down the article temporarily to make some edits. I'll tell you why via email.

[GD]

http://www.obstructedview.net/news-and-rumors/yankees-blue-jays-interested-in-cuban-defector-daniel-carbonell.html

 

Jays and Yankees interested in Carbonell. Seems like a fleet footed, slap hitting CF. Anyone got anything on him?

[KingKat]

http://www.obstructedview.net/news-and-rumors/yankees-blue-jays-interested-in-cuban-defector-daniel-carbonell.html

 

Jays and Yankees interested in Carbonell. Seems like a fleet footed, slap hitting CF. Anyone got anything on him?

 

Doesn't look like there's a whole lot there offensively but the Jays could use a reserve CF. He makes sense if the defense is good.

[KingKat]

 

” They were very impressed with him, saw that it is a very fast, much faster than Yasiel Puig player ”

 

 

Sounds like a Cuban Anthony Gose.

[z3r0s]

Sounds like a Cuban Anthony Gose.

 

The thing about the Anthony Gose's of the world is that sometimes they don't have to hit much to be a 4+ WAR player (see Brett Gardner).

 

When they bust, the bust hard, but it can be a great and cheap source of wins (especially with how defense is reflected in contract values).

[Jdub]

Jays and Yankees interested in Carbonell. Seems like a fleet footed, slap hitting CF. Anyone got anything on him?

 

 

 

 

http://youtu.be/F3OpgaDQpI0

[Angrioter]

Vladimir Guerrero son, a strong young man with just 15, who is on track to break the record for a signing bonus in the Dominican Republic.

 

 

Yenci Pena 15 SS and switch-hitter is the nephew of my younger brother.

[G-Snarls]

Yankees??

 

Vladimir Guerrero son, a strong young man with just 15, who is on track to break the record for a signing bonus in the Dominican Republic.

 

 

Yenci Pena 15 SS and switch-hitter is the nephew of my younger brother.

[Angrioter]

Jays and Yankees interested in Carbonell. Seems like a fleet footed, slap hitting CF. Anyone got anything on him?

 

 

 

 

http://youtu.be/F3OpgaDQpI0

 

Carbonel bust

[Angrioter]

Yankees??

 

Guerrero is on track to break the record for a signing bonus in the Dominican Republic.

[G-Snarls]

Guerrero is on track to break the record for a signing bonus in the Dominican Republic.

 

So... Yankees

 

Report: Yankees plan to shatter international spending record in '14

 

http://network.yardbarker.com/mlb/article_external/report_yankees_plan_to_shatter_international_spending_record_in_14/15423670?linksrc=story_article_yb_original_head_15423670

 

A source with direct knowledge of the Yankees plans says they aim to spend $12-15 million in bonuses on international amateurs this year, which would trigger penalties of about $10-12 million per to the 2-year old rules in the Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) that limit international spending.

 

The total outlay of about $25 million would blow away a record the Texas Rangers set in 2011 of about $15 million, of all penalty-free bonuses. That record was thought to be untouchable as it came in the last season before spending limits were implemented and was shocking at the time, also shattering the previous record

[G-Snarls]

They just DGAF! lol

 

Nope. Penalties? Whatever. We have the money, we have a s***** farm system, and we need two new middle infielders.

[Angrioter]

So... Yankees

 

Report: Yankees plan to shatter international spending record in '14

 

http://network.yardbarker.com/mlb/article_external/report_yankees_plan_to_shatter_international_spending_record_in_14/15423670?linksrc=story_article_yb_original_head_15423670

 

A source with direct knowledge of the Yankees plans says they aim to spend $12-15 million in bonuses on international amateurs this year, which would trigger penalties of about $10-12 million per to the 2-year old rules in the Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) that limit international spending.

 

The total outlay of about $25 million would blow away a record the Texas Rangers set in 2011 of about $15 million, of all penalty-free bonuses. That record was thought to be untouchable as it came in the last season before spending limits were implemented and was shocking at the time, also shattering the previous record

 

They just DGAF! lol

 

Vladimir's son born in Canada.... I think!

[Angrioter]

Yes, in Montreal.

Great. JFas should sign him in the 2015 draft.

[ace3113]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/which-teams-have-signed-the-most-international-prospects-2/

 

Which Teams Have Signed The Most International Prospects?

 

Having a strong international program is the sign of a team that generally knows what it’s doing when it comes to producing homegrown players.

 

Given the way teams delineate their scouting departments, it’s not necessarily an intuitive idea. Some clubs have their top American scouts get involved evaluating international players, while others adhere to a strict separation of their international and domestic amateur scouting operations. For the most part, the international scouting department does its job without too much influence from the rest of the organization, with Japanese and Cuban free agents probably the biggest exception.

 

Yet even though most players still come from the draft instead of the international market—it’s about a 70/30 split on domestic/international players in the Prospect Handbook—the teams with the strongest international programs tend to produce the best farm systems.

 

The challenge is how to figure out which teams have done the best job procuring talent from the international market. Given that players sign at 16 years old and might take seven years just to get to the big leagues, it’s not an easy task.

 

5. Boston Red Sox

 

The Red Sox have eight of their own international signings in their Top 30, but they have more international signings sprinkled throughout the Prospect Handbook because they traded away seven Latin American players who rank in a Top 30 for other organizations. The Red Sox have done a fine job in the last few years on the international market under international scouting director Eddie Romero, but the trades of players such as White Sox righthander Francellis Montas, Athletics righthander Raul Alcantara and Rangers righthander Roman Mendez, among others, do skew the numbers here.

 

The crown jewel of Boston’s young international talent is Xander Bogaerts, a potential MVP candidate signed out of Aruba in 2009. Dominican second baseman Wendell Rijo is 18, the same age as a high school senior, and is off to a terrific start in low Class A Greenville. Dominican center fielder Manuel Margot is an explosive athlete with a huge ceiling and Dominican third baseman Rafael Devers was one of the premium players on the 2013 international market.

 

They also have two big leaguers in Tigers shortstop Jose Iglesias, who the Red Sox signed out of Cuba in 2009, and Japanese righthander Junichi Tazawa, who signed as a 22-year-old in 2008.

 

4. Minnesota Twins

 

The Twins have a loaded farm system. Having a terrible major league team gave them the premium draft picks to get Byron Buxton and Kohl Stewart, while allowing them to trade away big leaguers to acquire Alex Meyer and Trevor May. Much of the rest of the system—both the potential cornerstone players and the depth at the lower levels—are a credit to their international program, led by Latin American scouting coordinator Fred Guerrero and international scouting coordinator Howard Norsetter.

 

Oswaldo Arcia, who signed out of Venezuela in 2007, is coming off his rookie campaign last year. Miguel Sano is out for the year with Tommy John surgery, but he’s become one of baseball’s premium prospects. The $3.15 million the Twins signed him for in 2009 looks like a bargain in retrospect when teams at the time were ecstatic about him but weren’t willing to go to $3 million to sign him. Catcher Josmil Pinto, signed out of Venezuela in 2006, received little hype coming through the minors but is one of the game’s most underrated young catchers. Shortstop Danny Santana (Dominican Republic 2007) could be the next Twins international signing to make his major league debut.

 

Dominican shortstop Jorge Polanco was a defensive-oriented shortstop when the Twins signed him in 2009, but he’s hit over .300 at every level since 2012 and is off to a fast start as a 20-year-old in high Class A Fort Myers. There’s plenty of depth in the lower levels of the system as well. Australian lefthhander Lewis Thorpe had a spectacular pro debut as a 17-year-old in the Rookie-level Gulf Coast League after signing for $500,000 in 2012. Fernando Romero and Felix Jorge are both promising young righthanders the team signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2011.

 

3. Pittsburgh Pirates

 

Other teams want to emulate what Pirates Latin American scouting director Rene Gayo and his staff have been able to do in the Dominican Republic. With Starling Marte, a 2007 signing, the Pirates already have one of the most exciting up-and-coming Dominican stars in their outfield. Next month they’re going to add another one as soon as they promote Gregory Polanco, who’s put himself in the conversation as one of the top five prospects in baseball. Neither player was a high-profile signing, and both players struggled when they first got to professional baseball. Now fly balls in Pittsburgh are going to be must-see TV with those two running around. Shortstop Alen Hanson is another Pirates’ Dominican signing who ranks among the game’s Top 100 prospects.

 

Pirates ownership has been willing to invest money in the Latin American market, including $3 million for Mexican righthander Luis Heredia, who’s shown promising flashes at time but has struggled with injuries and conditioning. When the Pirates signed Colombian outfielder Harold Ramirez for $1.05 million in 2011 (along with Venezuelan outfielder Elvis Escobar for $575,000, also from Hugo Catrain), that raised eyebrows from other teams. Two years later, Ramirez just ranked as the No. 1 prospect in the short-season New York-Penn League. Colombian infielder Dilson Herrera, who the Pirates spotted early on and signed for $220,000, was flipped to the Mets last year to add Marlon Byrd for the stretch run.

 

Dominican center fielder Michael de la Cruz had his skeptics when the Pirates signed him for $700,000, but he’s one of the most promising players from the 2013 Dominican Summer League.

 

2. Kansas City Royals

 

A few years back, the Royals had one of the most loaded farm systems we had ever seen, built largely on talent acquired through the draft. Yet what the organization has come up with since general manager Dayton Moore, assistant general manager Rene Francisco and Latin American scouting coordinator Orlando Estevez joined the organization in 2006 is impressive as well.

 

Venezuelan catcher Salvador Perez wasn’t a headline signing in 2006 and spent time in the minors hearing about how he was going to be Wil Myers’ backup once he got to Kansas City. Now he’s an all-star catcher. Dominican righthander Kelvin Herrera, another 2006 signing, has a triple-digits fastball in the bullpen. Yordano Ventura might have the best arm speed in baseball, a 22-year-old Dominican flamethrower signed for $28,000.

 

With Ventura losing his prospect status, the team’s next three top prospects after Kyle Zimmer—shortstop Raul Adalberto Mondesi, outfielder Jorge Bonifacio and righthander Miguel Almonte—were all signed by the Royals from the Dominican Republic. There’s depth beyond them too, with players like Dominican outfielder Elier Hernandez and young Italian shortstop Marten Gasparini, among others.

 

1. Texas Rangers

 

The Rangers have an enviable combination of premium players and depth from the international ranks, with former international directors A.J. Preller (now the organization’s assistant general manager), Mike Daly (now the farm director) and current international director Gil Kim overseeing the team’s international procurement. The player with the biggest ceiling, Jurickson Profar, has been set back this year due to a shoulder injury, and while there’s probably some prospect fatigue setting in from fans, he’s still a 21-year-old potential franchise player. Lefthander Martin Perez was a talented but enigmatic prospect who should be at least a mid-rotation starter for years to come. Some teams thought Leonys Martin was a fourth outfielder when the Rangers signed him out of Cuba, but he looks like a steady everyday center fielder.

 

Then there’s the farm system, which has No. 1 prospect Rougned Odor (a Venezuelan second baseman) and Colombian catcher Jorge Alfaro. Venezuelan shortstop Luis Sardinas made his major league debut last month, and while it’s debatable whether he’s going to be an everyday player, his speed, defense and contact skills should make him at least a utility man.

 

They’ve traded away three of their better international signings as well, with the 2010 deal that sent Venezuelan lefthander Edwin Escobar to the Giants (now the organization’s No. 2 prospect) for Rule 5 pick Ben Snyder after Escobar’s first season the one they will regret the most. Mexican third baseman Christian Villanueva (sent to the Cubs in the 2012 Ryan Dempster deal) and Dominican shortstop Leury Garcia (shipped to the White Sox last August for Alex Rios) also signed with the Rangers as amateurs.

 

For a team that’s had so much success in the international market, it’s notable that the Rangers haven’t really stood out in the Dominican Republic, with most of their top international signings coming from other Latin American countries. First baseman Ronald Guzman, righthanders Jose LeClerc and Marcos Diplan and shortstop Yeyson Yrizarri (Venezuelan born but signed out of the Dominican Republic) could change that.

[ace3113]

Some Blue Jays IFA rumblings.

 

Juan Meza

RHP

Date of Birth: 06/12/97

Height: 6'2" Weight: 190 lbs.

Throws: Right

Bats: Right

 

Powerful arm. Throws 91-92 mph. Good spin on curve and can throw a changeup. A little stiff with his stance. Projects as a 4 or 5 starter in a major league rotation. Represented by Carlos Guillen Academy. The Blue Jays have shown the most interest in him.

 

Meza is skinny and long-limbed but only 6'0/170, so you can't see that much more coming from him. That said, he's got a lot to like, including a smooth delivery and an advanced three-pitch mix. Meza broke a few bats with his heavy 87-90 mph sinker and liberally went to a 79-81 mph changeup that was above average to plus. His slurvy 3/4 breaking ball was a clear third option but was solid-average at times and gives him a chance to profile in the rotation. Asking price is 1M.

[Angrioter]

Elvis Sabala Jr is a stud

[ace3113]

The top July 2nd pitchers from BA.

 

The Red Sox typically haven’t been a team that’s invested heavily in 16-year-old international pitching prospects, but they have been linked to two of the top pitchers in Latin America, Venezuelan righthander Andres Espinoza and Dominican righthander Christopher Acosta. Both pitchers should get bonuses of more than $1 million, with Espinoza looking like the favorite to be the top-paid pitcher this year.

 

Huascar Ynoa, rhp, Dominican Republic

 

Ynoa’s older brother Michael set the international amateur bonus record (since surpassed by Rangers outfielder Nomar Mazara) when he signed with Oakland for $4.25 million in 2008. Now Huascar is one of the top pitchers on the 2014 international market, though his stock dropped from January, when it looked like he had a chance to be the No. 1 pitcher on the market.

 

Ynoa, who turns 16 on May 28, looked sharp at the MLB showcase in San Pedro de Macoris in January, when he struck out four batters over two quick innings. He showed feel for three pitches at the event, including a low-90s fastball, a curveball with good depth and a swing-and-miss changeup in the low-80s with good separation from his heater. But when Ynoa went to Arizona on the International Prospect League’s spring training tour, he struggled with his control in two outings and seemed to lose feel for his breaking ball in the second outing.

 

With a relatively mature frame (6-foot-2, 190 pounds) for a 15-year-old, Ynoa’s stuff is advanced for his age. At his best, he throws 88-92 mph with a 73-77 mph curveball that has good rotation, projecting as a possible future above-average pitch. He throws his changeup with good arm speed, flashing as an average to a tick above-average pitch at times. He mixes his pitches liberally, throwing any pitch in any count.

 

Ynoa doesn’t throw with much effort, but he has an exaggerated back shoulder tilt that causes his delivery to get uphill, which leads to him leaving pitches up in the zone and erratic command, though he does a good job staying on line to the plate. Ynoa’s frame is already fairly filled out, so there might not be too much more coming on his fastball.

 

“When he’s on, I’ve seen him in spurts where he can get into a good groove and he’s pretty good,” said an American League scout. “It’s just not a consistent thing that’s there. When you’re talking about big time money, you want to see more consistency, but all the elements are there of someone who could be a frontline starter.”

 

While Ynoa isn’t as advanced as Taiwanese righthander Jen-Ho Tseng was last year, the two have some similarities as pitchers who were hot-ticket items coming into the year but who scouts seemed to cool on as July 2 approached. Some teams backed off Tseng after he struggled at at the World Baseball Classic in March 2013, but the Cubs were one of the teams that stayed on him and were rewarded for their diligence when they saw his stuff and command return, signing him for $1.625 million and sending him this year to low Class A Kane County, where he’s dominated so far.

 

Like his brother, Ynoa trains with Edgar Mercedes, and it’s not clear yet where he’s going to sign. While some teams won’t play in the million-dollar waters for a 16-year-old righthander, Marco Paddy, who runs international scouting for the White Sox, did so for Mexico’s Roberto Osuna and Venezuela’s Adonys Cardona when he was with the Blue Jays. White Sox president Ken Williams and general manager Rick Hahn went to Ynoa’s first game in Arizona in March to scout him, and while they didn’t see him at his best, the White Sox have the third-highest bonus pool ($4.27 million) and have been connected to Ynoa. The Red Sox, who are going over their pool this year and are prioritizing pitching, have also been tied to him. Other sources believe the Twins could get involved. Given that Ynoa’s older brother signed for $4.25 million, there isn’t the same desperation to sign immediately that exists with many other Dominican families, so it’s possible he might not sign immediately on July 2.

 

Juan Meza, rhp, Venezuela

 

Carlos Guillen’s academy has two of the top pitchers in Latin America this year. The most polished of the two is Meza, a 16-year-old with advanced feel for pitching. Scouts highest on Meza view him as a starter with the potential for three average to above-average pitches. At 6-foot-3, 190 pounds, Meza has good size, a sound delivery and smooth arm action. That helps him throw strikes, which he did at the MLB showcase in January in the Dominican Republic, where he struck out three in a scoreless inning.

 

Meza’s velocity at the MLB showcase was around 85-88 mph, but he’s been up to the low-90s and draws praise for his ability to move his lively fastball around the zone and pitch with downhill plane. His release point is still inconsistent on his low-80s changeup, but he maintains his arm speed when he throws it and it’s a projectable offering. Some scouts liked Meza’s mid-70s curveball and said he was able to throw it for strikes, though others said it’s the pitch that will need the most work. Meza is expected to be the No. 2 arm in Venezuela this year after Andres Espinoza, with a possible price tag near $1.5 million. The Blue Jays have been scouting Meza heavily and look like the favorites.

 

Franklin Perez, rhp, Venezuela

 

Guillen’s other top arm is Perez, who until the end of last year had been showcasing as a third baseman. Perez had pitched in youth leagues when he was younger, and the move to the mound will likely get him a seven-figure bonus, with the Astros the team most frequently linked to him.

 

Perez, 16, is 6-foot-3, 195 pounds and has power arm potential. He brought a strong arm with him from third base, throwing 89-91 mph with good finish and downhill angle. With his big, strong frame, he could eventually throw in the mid-90s. Even though Perez hasn’t been showcasing as a pitcher for very long, some scouts said he already showed solid strike-throwing ability, although there are times when he has trouble repeating his delivery and his control escapes him.

 

He was effective at the MLB showcase in the Dominican Republic in January, throwing a scoreless inning with two strikeouts and a walk. Perez doesn’t have the same feel for pitching or his secondary stuff as some of the other top arms in the class. His curveball has solid shape to it, but it’s a pitch he needs to sharpen and learn to corral in the strike zone.

[ace3113]

It's kind of depressing to hear that the Yankees have already reached verbal agreements with close to a quarter of the top 30 prospects (Dermis Garcia, Miguel Flames, Chris Torres, Juan De Leon, Jonathan Amundaray, Nelson Gomez, Diego Castillo) and they're being connected to even more names that are not locked yet.

 

Anyway, some video of Juan Meza the pitcher we've been connected to.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gv1ZyaR8X4U

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uaXgrAiL7jE

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nI3m5drQtO8

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=27K2i_vpDJE

 

I really hope we can get into the bidding for Ynoa as well. This guy looks legit.

 

[ace3113]

Blue Jays favorites for Meza. Nice!

 

Ace, do you have any more on him? (from outside that article)

 

Yeah, I'll PM them to you.

[Frenchsoup]

I really hope we can get into the bidding for Ynoa as well. This guy looks legit.

 

 

He's got a really weird release point, curve looks nice though, fastball and command not so much

[ace3113]

I really hope we can get into the bidding for Ynoa as well. This guy looks legit.

 

 

He's got a really weird release point, curve looks nice though, fastball and command not so much

 

Yeah the curve has lots of snap to it. He's pretty advanced and polished, I think his command was just off that day. His command was great at the December showcase. Projects to have 3 pitches that are above average or better, and looks more projectable than reports suggest. Right now word is the White Sox went to see him, but they're not officially connected to him yet.

[ace3113]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/why-july-2-prospects-are-harder-to-track-this-year/

 

Why July 2 Prospects Are Harder To Track This Year

 

When I started covering the July 2 market in 2008, all of our information had to be built from scratch. There was no such thing as the Dominican Prospect League, the International Prospect League or players having to register with Major League Baseball before they signed. Tracking down even basic information like the spelling of a player’s name, his height, weight, date of birth and other vitals was a challenge, let alone figuring out who the players were who I needed to ask about.

 

In my seventh year covering July 2, it’s much easier than it used to be to acquire basic player information and spend more time talking with scouts to analyze the players themselves. Yet the 2014 signing class has created unique challenges in terms of our coverage and for scouts to be able to see and accurately gauge players.

 

Prospects aren’t vanishing into thin air, but they may as well be, at least until July 2. Imagine if a scouting director in the United States with one of the biggest draft bonus pools hadn’t seen Tyler Kolek or Brady Aiken since the summer of 2013. It would be unheard of. Yet for some of the top players on the July 2 market, there are scouts on teams with the biggest international bonus pools who haven’t been able to lay eyes on those players since 2013.

 

This year, teams have become more aggressive reaching oral agreements with players to sign once they become eligible on July 2. These deals are technically not in accordance with major league rules, but it’s long been industry practice for the top players to reach agreements before July 2, which MLB knows and tacitly accepts. Players don’t play for school teams in Latin America, so once a player has an agreement, he stops going to showcases or tryouts at other teams’ academies.

 

Except now there are more deals than ever being done well in advance of July 2. By the time MLB held its annual international showcase in San Pedro de Macoris in January, several of the top players there already had agreements to sign, while some of the other top prospects in the class didn’t even show up. Those who were there, well, some of them weren’t quite giving 110 percent. Why run or throw at maximum intensity and risk injury when you have nothing to gain?

 

“Not everybody gets to see these guys to the best of their abilities,” said one international scouting director. “If you’re going off a showcase one time, you’re getting beat. If you’re some scout from the States who flies down and sees a guy one time, you’re already beat.”

 

What that means is that there are top prospects for July 2 who most teams haven’t seen since January. For some players, their absence dates back to the end of 2013. One trainer told Baseball America he locked into an agreement with a team last summer for a July 2 prospect for this year.

 

When we’re talking about kids who are 15 and 16 years old, so much can change in two months, let alone six months or more. They can grow taller, gain weight, get faster and show skill improvement, while others might start to slide in the wrong direction. Sure, sometimes steroids are involved, but there’s also just a normal, rapid development curve for players who are 15 and 16.

 

Take Ricardo Sanchez, who was a projectable 16-year-old lefty with an 88-91 mph fastball when he signed with the Angels for $580,000 on July 2 last year. A couple of months later, he was consistently hitting 94. A 16-year-old lefty with his delivery, curveball and international tournament track record might command twice that much money on the open market.

 

On the other side of the equation, there are teams already regretting some of their oral agreements with players after making commitments to them extremely early in the process. One trainer was stunned when one of his players who struggled hitting in games was able to lock in a healthy deal for himself after performing well in a game on a day when the team’s top American evaluators happened to be in town. The nature of international scouting has always led to aggressive tactics, but when decisions are being made so quickly and so early in the process, that elevates the risk and uncertainty on the table.

 

Then there’s the turmoil in Venezuela, which has created new challenges for teams to navigate. American scouts always try to tread carefully in Venezuela, but the current situation in the country has put everyone on higher alert.

 

On Feb. 21, MLB issued a memo to clubs with what it termed a “SEVERE” travel warning to the country of Venezuela. Included in the memo: “Due to the current civil unrest throughout Venezuela, it is recommended that any planned travel there be postponed.”

 

Some American scouts have scaled back on flying in to Venezuela to see players, placing even more importance on their Venezuelan supervisors and area scouts. Several trainers and agents say they have noticed a difference in their ability to get their players seen this year. Some of them have given part of their commissions to Dominican trainers and sent their players to the Dominican Republic to get them better exposure.

 

“Definitely, it’s hard for us,” said one Venezuelan trainer. “Our program is four hours from Caracas. The scouts come to Venezuela and they stay in Caracas, so you have to move there. They don’t go around the country, they don’t come to our city, so it’s really hard for us.”

 

Some players have still been showcased liberally, with scouts getting plenty of looks at them early in the process and more recently. Teams might disagree about a player like Dominican shortstop Pedro Gonzalez or Dominican righthander Huascar Ynoa, but every team has had the opportunity to see them play extensively, at least relative to the typical process. But for several other top players this year, getting recent evaluations of them has been more difficult than usual.

[ace3113]

From BA:

 

1. Gilbert Lara, ss, Dominican Republic

 

Lara has some of the best raw power in the 2014 international signing class. At 6-foot-3, 205 pounds, he’s bigger and more physical than most of the kids for this year, and he’s shown the ability to take the ball over the fence in game situations, even with a grip-and-rip approach that leads to some empty hacks. He won’t be a shortstop, but he will get paid for his offensive upside. His bonus is expected to be more than $3 million.

 

Prediction: BREWERS

 

2. Dermis Garcia, ss, Dominican Republic

 

Garcia generates easy power, arguably the most in the 2014 international signing class. There are questions about his ability to translate that power against live pitching, but when he puts the barrel on the ball he’s a threat to leave any part of the ballpark. He doesn’t project as a shortstop, profiling better at third base or a corner outfield spot. Power gets paid, and for Garcia, that’s expected to get him a bonus of at least $3 million.

 

Prediction: YANKEES

 

3. Adrian Rondon, ss, Dominican Republic

 

Rondon might be the best overall player on the international market this year. Not only do several scouts consider him one of the top hitters in the class with projectable power, he also should stick at shortstop. The ability to hit and play a premium position made him a priority for teams to see early in the scouting process, but he hasn’t been seen as much lately. Sources say the Rays are so enchanted with Rondon that they’re willing to shatter their international bonus pool just to sign him. If they do, it’s expected to cost them in the neighborhood of $3 million.

 

Prediction: RAYS

 

4. Nelson Gomez, 3b, Dominican Republic

 

Gomez brings serious power to the table, smoking the ball deep over the fence in batting practice. Scouts highest on him like his game-hitting ability, though that did generate mixed reviews. If he can keep his thicker body type in check, his above-average arm strength will be a weapon at third base. The Yankees are believed to be heavily interested, which could drive his price tag above $2 million.

 

Prediction: YANKEES

 

5. Juan De Leon, of, Dominican Republic

 

De Leon is one of the top offensive weapons on the market. He has a quick, efficient swing and hits in games. He doesn’t have Lara or Garcia’s power, but he’s a threat to leave the yard and could grow into plus power. With his athleticism and potential for five average to above-average tools in right field, he’s one of the most exciting players in the class, with a bonus that should crack the $2 million mark.

 

Prediction: YANKEES

 

6. Christopher Torres, ss, Dominican Republic

 

After Rondon, Torres will likely be the top-paid shortstop in Latin America among players who project to play the position at higher levels. He’s a good defender with clean hands, actions and a strong arm. Some scouts who have followed Torres closely also believe in his bat and think he’s more advanced at the same age than Blue Jays shortstop Richard Urena was when he signed out of the Dominican Republic, although others felt his offense would need time to come around. Several sources have said the Yankees will make Torres one of their top priorities, which means he could be in line for a bonus near $2 million.

 

Prediction: YANKEES

 

7. Brayan Hernandez, of, Venezuela

 

Hernandez is arguably the top prospect in Venezuela and one of the most well-rounded players in Latin America. He can run, he’s hit in games, he shows solid power and has the instincts to play center field, with his arm his biggest weakness. After an outstanding showing at the MLB showcase in the Dominican Republic in January, Hernandez’s stock jumped, which is why he’s now expected to sign for at least $2 million.

 

Prediction: MARINERS

 

8. Andres Espinoza, rhp, Venezuela

 

Short teenage righthanders usually don’t get a lot of love, either in the draft or the international market. Yet last year the top pitcher on the market, Dominican righthander Marcos Diplan, signed with the Rangers for $1.4 million, and this year Espinoza—who many scouts think is the best pitcher available—will likely surpass that. His bonus could approach the $2 million territory, especially given the interest he’s getting from the Red Sox, who are prepared to break their bonus pool.

 

Prediction: RED SOX

 

9. Huascar Ynoa, rhp, Dominican Republic

 

Ynoa is the biggest wild card on the international market right now. When he’s at the top of his game, he has the best stuff among Dominican pitchers who become eligible to sign on July 2, with some teams viewing him as a potential frontline starter. A pair of shaky starts in Arizona during the International Prospect League’s spring training tour in March with key decision makers watching hurt his stock, but he’s still one of the top arms on the market and rebounded with five strikeouts in two scoreless innings on Thursday at an IPL showcase game. The White Sox have the third-highest bonus pool, president Ken Williams and general manager Rick Hahn have scouted him and the team no obvious seven-figure guys they’re zoning in on, so they might be the favorite.

 

Prediction: WHITE SOX

 

10. Juan Meza, rhp, Venezuela

 

Two years ago, the Blue Jays initially looked like they were going to sign righthander Jose Mujica out of Carlos Guillen’s academy. That didn’t happen, as Mujica ended up signing with the Rays, but the Blue Jays look like they’re the favorites right now for Meza, one of Guillen’s top righthanders this year. He’s projected to be a seven-figure player with a bonus likely around $1.5 million.

 

Prediction: BLUE JAYS

[Angrioter]

From BA:

 

10. Juan Meza, rhp, Venezuela

 

Two years ago, the Blue Jays initially looked like they were going to sign righthander Jose Mujica out of Carlos Guillen’s academy. That didn’t happen, as Mujica ended up signing with the Rays, but the Blue Jays look like they’re the favorites right now for Meza, one of Guillen’s top righthanders this year. He’s projected to be a seven-figure player with a bonus likely around $1.5 million.

 

Prediction: BLUE JAYS

 

The best talent of the July 2 draft comes from RD; Toronto always bet high for the talent of Venezuela instead of RD.