Bat Lind Leadoff

[AdamGreenwood]

...at least until Reyes comes back.

 

I know there's some philosophy out there that suggests that your leadoff guy has to be fast, but right now we're choosing between a guy who is getting on base 50% of the time, and guys with sub .300 OBP that are fast.

It's not like Lind is gonna clog the bases for Edwin and Bautista.

[mitchf]

I'm quite sure Gibbons already did that?

[GD]

Rays batted Carlos Pena leadoff last year lolol.

 

If we're optimizing by The Book, I would take Lind leadoff vs righties, and Bautista leadoff vs lefties.

[Nox]

Against RHP, I would approve.

[Dr. Dinger]

Not a terrible idea, although Melky is hitting .320+ with a .360 wOBA since the start of May. Moving Melky and Bautista to 1-2 is probably the best decision Gibbons has made so far. I'd be more inclined to bat Lind 3rd against RHP.

[GD]

I'd be more inclined to bat Lind 3rd against RHP.

 

Legit question (not sarcastic), isn't 5th more important than 3rd in the lineup? I'd think 3rd comes up with 2 outs / no one on more times than most.

[Dr. Dinger]

Legit question (not sarcastic), isn't 5th more important than 3rd in the lineup? I'd think 3rd comes up with 2 outs / no one on more times than most.

 

It's more important to me to have Jose and EE 2nd and 4th respectively. You could bat Lind 5th and stick someone else at 3, but we don't have many good hitters at the moment.

[GD]

It's more important to me to have Jose and EE 2nd and 4th respectively. You could bat Lind 5th and stick someone else at 3, but we don't have many good hitters at the moment.

 

If we were gonna play on the hotstreaks...

 

1 Melky

2 Bautista

3 Rasmus

4 Encarnacion

5 Lind

 

Rasmus has been hot lately. He seems like a nice enough 3 hitter right now, at least until he goes into a 1-57 slump.

[Nox]

Legit question (not sarcastic), isn't 5th more important than 3rd in the lineup? I'd think 3rd comes up with 2 outs / no one on more times than most.

 

Yah, slightly. Unless the your 4th best hitter gets a disproportionate amount of his offensive value from the long ball.

[GD]

Yah, slightly. Unless the your 4th best hitter gets a disproportionate amount of his offensive value from the long ball.

 

Which ours doesn't. So I don't think Lind fits the 3 hole atm.

 

Although, if we're gonna build narratives, Lind had his best season hitting mainly in the 3 hole, didn't he? It could do wonders for his confidence or whatever ********.

[Nox]

Optimizing between your 3rd and 5th hitters is probably going to yield like 1 or 2 runs over the course of the season. It's probably not even worth discussing further.

 

If a team has their 3 best hitters hitting in the 1,2 and 4 slots they're like 90% of the way towards optimizing their lineup.

[Arkadium]

If Texas was smart they'd acquire Adam Lind

[GD]

If Texas was smart they'd acquire Adam Lind

 

With Mitch Moreland and Lance Berkman and Chris McGuinuiss (sp?) and Mike Olt and Ian Kinsler to an extent and AJ Pierzynski and holy f***, why can't we have Daniels as a GM?

[Daniel Labude]

If we were gonna play on the hotstreaks...

 

1 Melky

2 Bautista

3 Rasmus

4 Encarnacion

5 Lind

 

Rasmus has been hot lately. He seems like a nice enough 3 hitter right now, at least until he goes into a 1-57 slump.

 

If we were gonna play on hotstreaks Bautista would bat 9th including in the games played in NL parks.

[hummus]

1 Gose

2 Kawasaki

3 EE

4 Joey Bats

5 Lind

 

Hotstreaks happen people, in 2 months when pitchers figure out Lind again we'll be back talking trades

[o2cui2i]

Which ours doesn't. So I don't think Lind fits the 3 hole atm.

 

Although, if we're gonna build narratives, Lind had his best season hitting mainly in the 3 hole, didn't he? It could do wonders for his confidence or whatever ********.

 

any lineup that doesn't have JPA coming up in high leverage situations works for me. amazing how many times it was JPA or Bumfiasco that came up today with RISP and 2 outs. those two have their pictures in the baseball dictionary under the term rally killer.

 

both those loser piss me off to no end because they both think they're great and have no clue how F-ing horrid they are.

[AdamGreenwood]

Hotstreaks happen people, in 2 months when pitchers figure out Lind again we'll be back talking trades

 

This is more than a hot streak. Every time Mottola has worked with Lind, there has been a major turnaround.

It's time to let him start hitting against LHP. Limited at bats, but he's hitting .462 against them so far this season. Might as well see if his approach helps him against LHP as well. After all, he did well against them in 2009.

[Angrioter]

...at least until Reyes comes back.

 

I know there's some philosophy out there that suggests that your leadoff guy has to be fast, but right now we're choosing between a guy who is getting on base 50% of the time, and guys with sub .300 OBP that are fast.

It's not like Lind is gonna clog the bases for Edwin and Bautista.

 

 

Lind DH

Melky LF

EE 1B

Jose RF

Rasmus CF

LaRoche 3B

Izturis/Boni 2B

JP C

Kawasaki SS

[eastcoastjaysfan]

Rasmus has also been hitting quite well lately.

 

It's mind blowing that JPA is hitting above him.

[Angrioter]

Lead-Off

 

The old-school book says to put a speedy guy up top. Power isn't important, and OBP is nice, but comes second to speed.

 

The Book says OBP is king. The lead-off hitter comes to bat only 36% of the time with a runner on base, versus 44% of the time for the next lowest spot in the lineup, so why waste homeruns? The lead-off hitter also comes to the plate the most times per game, so why give away outs? As for speed, stealing bases is most valuable in front of singles hitters, and since the top of the order is going to be full of power hitters, they're not as important. The lead-off hitter is one of the best three hitters on the team, the guy without homerun power. Speed is nice, as this batter will have plenty of chances to run the bases with good hitters behind him.

 

 

 

The Two Hole

 

The old-school book says to put a bat-control guy here. Not a great hitter, but someone who can move the lead-off hitter over for one of the next two hitters to drive in.

 

The Books says the #2 hitter comes to bat in situations about as important as the #3 hitter, but more often. That means the #2 hitter should be better than the #3 guy, and one of the best three hitters overall. And since he bats with the bases empty more often than the hitters behind him, he should be a high-OBP player. Doesn't sound like someone who should be sacrificing, does it?

 

 

 

The Third Spot

 

The old-school book says to put your best high-average hitter here. The lead-off hitter should already be in scoring position and a hit drives him in. Wham, bam, thank you ma'am.

 

The Book says the #3 hitter comes to the plate with, on average, fewer runners on base than the #4 or #5 hitters. So why focus on putting a guy who can knock in runs in the #3 spot, when the two spots after him can benefit from it more? Surprisingly, because he comes to bat so often with two outs and no runners on base, the #3 hitter isn't nearly as important as we think. This is a spot to fill after more important spots are taken care of.

 

 

 

Cleanup

 

The old-school book says to put your big power bat here, probably a guy with a low batting average, who will hit the big multi-run homeruns.

 

The Book says the #4 hitter comes to bat in the most important situations out of all nine spots, but is equal in importance to the #2 hole once you consider the #2 guy receives more plate appearances. The cleanup hitter is the best hitter on the team with power.

 

 

 

The Number Five Guy

 

The old-school book says the number five guy is a wannabe cleanup hitter.

 

The Book says the #5 guy can provide more value than the #3 guy with singles, doubles, triples, and walks, and avoiding outs, although the #3 guy holds an advantage with homeruns. After positions #1, #2, and #4 are filled, put your next best hitter here, unless he lives and dies with the long ball.

 

 

 

Spots Six Through Nine

 

The old-school book says the rest of the lineup should be written in based on decreasing talent. Hitting ninth is an insult.

 

The Book basically agrees, with a caveat. Stolen bases are most valuable ahead of high-contact singles hitters, who are more likely to hit at the bottom of the lineup. So a base-stealing threat who doesn't deserve a spot higher in the lineup is optimized in the #6 hole, followed by the singles hitters.

 

 

 

That Whole Hitting The Pitcher Eighth Thing

 

The Cardinals and Brewers have hit the pitcher eighth in the past, and it's actually a smart, albeit insignificant, strategy. Yes, giving an awful hitter more plate appearances by hitting him higher in the lineup is costly, but the benefit of having a better number nine hitter interacting with the top of the lineup is worth the trade-off, by about two runs per season. By putting a decent hitter at the bottom of the order, the top spots in the lineup will have more runners on base to advance with walks and hits and drive in with hits.

 

This strategy isn't as worthwhile in the American League, because even the worst position player will be on base significantly more often than a pitcher when the top of the order comes around. Only bat the worst hitter eighth when he's significantly worse than anybody else -- maybe someone like Adam Everett or Tony Pena Jr.

 

 

 

Final Thoughts

 

Another way to look at things is to order the batting slots by the leveraged value of the out. In plain English (sort of), we want to know how costly making an out is by each lineup position, based on the base-out situations they most often find themselves in, and then weighted by how often each lineup spot comes to the plate. Here's how the lineup spots rank in the importance of avoiding outs:

 

#1, #4, #2, #5, #3, #6, #7, #8, #9

 

So, you want your best three hitters to hit in the #1, #4, and #2 spots. Distribute them so OBP is higher in the order and SLG is lower. Then place your fourth and fifth best hitters, with the #5 spot usually seeing the better hitter, unless he's a high-homerun guy. Then place your four remaining hitters in decreasing order of overall hitting ability, with basestealers ahead of singles hitters. Finally, stop talking like the lineup is a make-or-break decision.

 

For all the nitty gritty details, I highly recommend getting yourself a copy of The Book, which goes into even greater detail about the strategy of lineup construction, including platoons, separating lefties in the lineup, strikeouts, avoiding GIDPs, and preventing the pitcher from hitting.

[o2cui2i]

The Number Five Guy

 

The old-school book says the number five guy is a wannabe cleanup hitter.

 

The Book says the #5 guy can provide more value than the #3 guy with singles, doubles, triples, and walks, and avoiding outs, although the #3 guy holds an advantage with homeruns. After positions #1, #2, and #4 are filled, put your next best hitter here, unless he lives and dies with the long ball.

 

so that lets JPA out of the consideration no matter how you sip your drink.

[Dr Negative]

I think the most important thing to do is to make sure all your good hitters are batting back to back. This means no dividing the leadoff hitter and the 3, 4 hitters with some lousy bat control middle infielder who can't do anything but bunt (and no batting JPA cleanup).

[o2cui2i]

I think the most important thing to do is to make sure all your good hitters are batting back to back. This means no dividing the leadoff hitter and the 3, 4 hitters with some lousy bat control middle infielder who can't do anything but bunt (and no batting JPA cleanup).

 

the problem the jays have is that they have 5 guys, in the every day lineup, who should just STFU and stop making outs, but instead they are trying to be heros and have no clue of their roles.

[Chappy]

Before Melky picked things up I suggested Lind to leadoff but now I wouldn't mind seeing him hit 3rd and move EE to 4th. But really, as long as all of Lind, Melky, Bautista and EE are in the top 4, I don't care too much about it. Once Reyes gets back then things get interesting as our top 5 will look pretty darn good.

[Shogun89]

Lind will be batting 5th when Reyes gets back, reminds me a bit of Olerud ATM, a left handed super calm single machine with a smooth swing, who never tries to force something that isn't there.

 

I hope he can keep it up though.

 

Remember in 93 we had the top 3 guys in the league in batting average and the top 2 batted 5th and 6th for us most nights.

[jays_fever]

Isnt are our best hitters supposed to hit 2 and 4 though? Right now Lind is our best hitter, maybe Edwin depending on what you value more.

[G-Snarls]

If we were gonna play on the hotstreaks...

 

1 Melky

2 Bautista

3 Rasmus

4 Encarnacion

5 Lind

 

Rasmus has been hot lately. He seems like a nice enough 3 hitter right now, at least until he goes into a 1-57 slump.

 

If,only you could tell when those slumps were starting...

[G-Snarls]

Remember in 93 we had the top 3 guys in the league in batting average and the top 2 batted 5th and 6th for us most nights.

 

6th?

 

Wasn't it:

 

White

Alomar

Molitor

Carter

Olerud

 

Most of the time? With Olerud, Molitor and Alomar 1-2-3 in batting title

[KSaw]

Forget where you bat him for a second. Reality #1 is that the new stance, trigger and later swing is working and works v left handed pitching. The results are there and he will be playing almost everyday moving forward. Ok, that means that he'll be a hitting leaders qualifier in about 10-12 days. He will likely be 2nd or 3rd in the American League batting leaders.

 

All-Star Game?

[KSaw]

6th?

 

Wasn't it:

 

White

Alomar

Molitor

Carter

Olerud

 

Most of the time? With Olerud, Molitor and Alomar 1-2-3 in batting title

 

After they acquired Ricky Henderson WAMCO all got moved down one spot.