2013 draft

[Angrioter]

Big League Futures has all the mocks too, their site is so improved of late.

 

http://bigleaguefutures.net/1/mlb-mock-draft-central-2013/

 

Blue Jays #10 - Austin Meadows

 

why Austin Meadows is so low in this list?

[GD]

Hallefackinlujah!

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1Z7FI4slTI

 

Video of Shipley from ESPN. Only a minute though lol.

[GD]

Blue Jays #10 - Austin Meadows

 

why Austin Meadows is so low in this list?

 

I don't know why, but I do know that if he fell to us I'd be so, so happy.

[TheHurl]

There are quite a few HS experts who are much lower on Meadows. The College guys are gaining steam as Bryant is up to a top 3 guy on a lot of mocks and Moran is top 8 on most. Some have DJ Peterson top 10 too. Frazier and Meadows are linked so much, there is little negative coming out on Frazier but much more on Meadows.

 

BA and Law put up rankings/mocks today. I have to run though as I have a game tonight

[TheHurl]

quickly here is Badler's (not BA as I stated)

 

1. ASTROS: Houston, which has the top selection for the second straight year, says it’s still evaluating seven players. Most industry sources believe Houston’s decision will come down to Appel, whom it strongly considered a year ago before taking Carlos Correa, and Gray. While Appel has less leverage this time around because he’s now a college senior, Houston won’t be able to take as much of a discount as it did with Correa, who signed for $4.8 million. The Astros’ pick is valued at $7.8 million, and whichever arm they pass on likely will be snapped up by the Cubs ($6.7 million) or the Rockies ($5.6 million).

 

PROJECTED PICK: MARK APPEL.

 

2. CUBS: Chicago has had scouts at every one of Appel’s and Gray’s starts this spring. While the Cubs insist they haven’t narrowed their focus to just the two pitchers, it will be an upset if they don’t choose whichever one the Astros leave on the board.

 

PROJECTED PICK: JONATHAN GRAY.

 

 

Kris Bryant (Photo by Robert Gurganus)

3. ROCKIES: Colorado may prefer a pitcher, but if Appel and Gray aren’t available, there’s not an obvious arm to take here. The Rockies could cut a deal with someone like Nevada righthander Braden Shipley or hope that Manaea regains his form from last summer in the Cape Cod League. Would they opt for a high school pitcher after getting burned by their $3.9 million investment in Tyler Matzek in 2009? More likely, they’ll grab the best offensive prospect in the draft.

 

PROJECTED PICK: KRIS BRYANT.

 

4. TWINS: A year ago, Minnesota badly needed pitching but used the No. 2 overall choice on outfielder Byron Buxton, the 2012 draft’s top-rated prospect. While the Twins aren’t as desperate now, they’re still looking at arms. Stewart comes with more risk but similar ceiling to Appel and Gray. Manaea and Ball are other options. Rumors persist that Minnesota could cut a deal with Washington high school catcher Reese McGuire and spend heavily further down in the draft.

 

PROJECTED PICK: KOHL STEWART.

 

5. INDIANS: Cleveland is another team searching for pitching. The Indians traditionally have been more comfortable with college arms, so they’re one of several teams trying to figure out Manaea. Shipley could allow them to move money lower in the draft, helpful for a club that lost picks by signing free agents Michael Bourn and Nick Swisher. If Bryant fell, Cleveland would grab him and focus on pitching later.

 

PROJECTED PICK: BRADEN SHIPLEY.

 

6. MARLINS: Other teams believe Florida will make a discount choice, with candidates ranging from Shipley and McGuire to New Mexico corner infielder D.J. Peterson and New Jersey high school lefthander Rob Kaminsky. If money is less important, Frazier could be a target.

 

PROJECTED PICK: REESE McGUIRE.

 

7. RED SOX: Boston has selected this high just once since 1967, getting Trot Nixon with the No. 7 choice in 1993. The Red Sox are looking to maximize their opportunity and will take a high-ceiling talent such as Frazier, Manaea or Stewart. They’re also interested in sweet-swinging North Carolina third baseman Colin Moran.

 

PROJECTED PICK: CLINT FRAZIER.

 

8. ROYALS: Add Kansas City to the list of teams on the hunt for pitching. If Stewart and Shipley are gone, that would leave the Royals considering Ball, Manaea and Arkansas righthander Ryne Stanek—who pitched his high school ball in suburban Kansas City. The Royals are known for preferring curveballs to sliders, which could help Ball’s cause.

 

PROJECTED PICK: RYNE STANEK.

 

9. PIRATES: Pittsburgh added this pick after failing to sign Appel at No. 8 last year, and it would get the No. 10 selection in 2014 if it can’t close a deal again. The Pirates were on Moran more than most teams in high school, and he’d eventually allow Pedro Alvarez to shift across the diamond to first base. Ball and McGuire also get mentioned here.

 

PROJECTED PICK: COLIN MORAN.

 

10. BLUE JAYS: No team was more aggressive than Toronto in the 2012 draft, but it has no extra picks to play with this year. Expect the Blue Jays to go all-in here and grab the highest-ceiling player still available. If Stewart and Frazier are off the board, that means Ball or Meadows.

 

PROJECTED PICK: TREY BALL.

[TheHurl]

11. METS: New York appears to be targeting college bats. If Moran doesn’t get to the Mets, they’ll pick between Peterson and Missisippi State outfielder Hunter Renfroe.

 

PROJECTED PICK: D.J. PETERSON.

 

12. MARINERS: Meadows opened the year as the top-rated high school prospect, and while he hasn’t had the senior season scouts hoped for, he’s still a potential five-tool talent. Getting him here would be a nice value for Seattle. This is likely the floor for Shipley and McGuire, and the ceiling for Bickford.

 

PROJECTED PICK: AUSTIN MEADOWS.

 

13. PADRES: Meadows also would be a nice get for San Diego, which may be the lone club this high that prefers Ball as an outfielder. If the Padres don’t see a high-upside position player, they may turn to Bickford or lefthander Ian Clarkin, a San Diego high schooler.

 

PROJECTED PICK: PHIL BICKFORD.

 

14. PIRATES: A year ago, Pittsburgh ditched a predraft deal with David Dahl and gambled the No. 8 choice on Appel when he unexpectedly fell. Could they do the same with another Boras Corp. college pitcher in Manaea, a potential No. 1 overall pick before his stuff backed up? No team has two picks as high as the Pirates do, and not signing Manaea wouldn’t sting as much as missing out on Appel did in 2012. Pittsburgh also could grab Ball at No. 9 and get a college bat such as Renfroe or Notre Dame third baseman Eric Jagielo here. California high school first baseman Dominic Smith is a gifted hitter, too.

 

PROJECTED PICK: SEAN MANAEA.

 

15. DIAMONDBACKS: After an early run on pitchers, position players will be the strength of the middle of the first round. Count Arizona as one of several teams in this area who would love an unexpected shot at Meadows. Renfroe and California high school shortstop J.P. Crawford are better bets to be available.

 

PROJECTED PICK: HUNTER RENFROE.

 

16. PHILLIES: Philadelphia, which has its earliest pick since taking Gavin Floyd at No. 4 in 2001, loves toolsy athletes. Crawford is the best shortstop in the draft, a quality defender with hitting ability who’d make a fine replacement for Jimmy Rollins down the road.

 

PROJECTED PICK: J.P. CRAWFORD.

 

17. WHITE SOX: Chicago used its top choice on athletic outfielders in 2009 (Jared Mitchell), 2011 (Keenyn Walker) and 2012 (Courtney Hawkins), and could go that route again with Stanford’s Austin Wilson or Fresno State’s Aaron Judge, who have massive power potential and two of the best bodies in the draft. Sox executive Ken Williams is a former Cardinal outfielder himself.

 

PROJECTED PICK: AUSTIN WILSON.

 

18. DODGERS: Since Logan White took over Los Angeles’ amateur scouting operations in 2002, he has used seven first-round picks on high school pitchers, most notably Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley. The Dodgers could take another this year, with Bickford, Clarkin, New Jersey lefthander Rob Kaminsky and North Carolina righthy Hunter Harvey as possibilities.

 

PROJECTED PICK: IAN CLARKIN.

 

19. CARDINALS: St. Louis picked in the same spot a year ago and got a tremendous value with a college righthander in Michael Wacha. It could happen again, as Jacksonville’s Chris Anderson and Florida’s Jonathon Crawford have faltered after looking like top-10 talents earlier in the spring. It’s not inconceivable that Manaea could fall this far if he doesn’t right himself and/or doesn’t appear signable, and the Cardinals have more flexibility than most clubs thanks to a pair of first-rounders.

 

PROJECTED PICK: CHRIS ANDERSON.

 

20. TIGERS: Detroit hasn’t had a first-round pick since 2009. At their best, Crawford and Anderson have the type of well above-average fastballs for which the Tigers are always on the prowl. If they want a hitter, they could look at Jagielo or Texas prep outfielder Billy McKinney. The latter is similar to Detroit’s top prospect, Nick Castellanos.

 

PROJECTED PICK: JONATHON CRAWFORD.

 

21. RAYS: Tampa Bay could go in several directions here, with the best options appearing to be position players. The Rays could opt for the highest ceiling available and grab Wilson or Judge. They could choose a more polished hitter in Smith or Samford outfielder Phillip Ervin. They could address their need at catcher with a prepster like South Carolina’s Nick Ciuffo or Oklahoma’s Jon Denney. They also could target a scarce position with East Central (Miss.) JC shortstop Tim Anderson, the draft’s best juco prospect.

 

PROJECTED PICK: AARON JUDGE.

 

22. ORIOLES: Though Baltimore is set at catcher with Matt Wieters, it still makes sense to draft the best available talent in the first round. The Orioles have been linked to Ciuffo, who like Wieters played at a South Carolina high school.

 

PROJECTED PICK: NICK CIUFFO.

 

23. RANGERS: Texas has built a strong major league team and a deep farm system by shooting for ceiling. Smith is one of the best all-around hitters in the draft, comes with less risk than most high school bats and provides quality defense at first base as a bonus.

 

PROJECTED PICK: DOMINIC SMITH.

 

24. ATHLETICS: Athletic college players who can hit are a rare commodity, so getting Cape Cod League MVP Ervin here would be a coup. Oakland also may find it hard to resist high school lefthander Matt Krook, who flashes front-of-the rotation stuff, from nearby San Francisco.

 

PROJECTED PICK: PHILLIP ERVIN.

 

25. GIANTS: Krook pitches even closer to the Giants, who know a thing or two about developing pitching. Chris Anderson also might fit here.

 

PROJECTED PICK: MATT KROOK.

 

26. YANKEES: After losing Nick Swisher and Rafael Soriano to free agency, New York has three first-rounders, more than any team. The Yankees system is short on arms, and polished prep lefthander Rob Kaminsky pitches across the Hudson River in New Jersey. It may make more sense to wait on Kaminsky and go for Jagielo, who could shore up the aging left side of New York’s infield.

 

PROJECTED PICK: ERIC JAGIELO.

 

27. REDS: Tennessee high school righthander Kyle Serrano will be difficult to sign away from a commitment to play for his father Dave at the University of Tennessee, but Cincinnati is one of the clubs most determined to try. If the Reds strike out there, they could pursue Tim Anderson.

 

PROJECTED PICK: KYLE SERRANO.

 

28. CARDINALS: The final six choices in the first round are compensation for departed free agents, beginning with this one for Kyle Lohse. High school righthander Devin Williams is making a push to go from the St. Louis suburbs to the first round, but that seems a bit rich, even for a local team with multiple choices. McKinney’s advanced bat makes more sense here.

 

PROJECTED PICK: BILLY McKINNEY.

 

29. RAYS: Tampa Bay could pair a position player at No. 21 with a pitcher here. The Rays excel at developing high school arms and could select from among a group that includes Kamisnky, Harvey and Kentucky lefthander Hunter Green. They also could go for a quicker return, with the most polished college lefthander in the draft, Gonzaga’s Marco Gonzales.

 

PROJECTED PICK: MARCO GONZALES.

 

30. RANGERS: Since 2006, Texas has used eight of its nine first-round picks on high schoolers. Most of the best preps at this point will be pitchers such as Kaminsky, Harvey and Green. Florida high school outfielder/quarterback Cord Sandberg is the type of athlete the Rangers traditionally covet.

 

PROJECTED PICK: HUNTER GREEN.

 

31. BRAVES: Atlanta scouting director Tony DeMacio is known for his love for lefthanders, which could lead him to Kaminsky, Gonzales or Green. McKinney would become the Braves’ best hitting prospect if they could get him. Harvey’s father Bryan, a former all-star closer, scouted for the organization, which also likes prep power arms.

 

PROJECTED PICK: HUNTER HARVEY.

 

32. YANKEES: New York may be able to finesse Kaminsky down to its No. 32 pick if it passes on him at No. 26. If not, Tim Anderson is another player who could help the left side of the Yankees infield.

 

PROJECTED PICK: ROB KAMINSKY.

 

33. YANKEES: No organization has a greater affinity for offensive-minded catchers than New York. Denney should be able to stay behind the plate, but he also has enough bat to profile at a less challenging position.

 

PROJECTED PICK: JON DENNEY.

[GD]

I don't really want Shipley after watching him. Dom Smith is really appealing to me, though, as are John Denny and Austin Meadows.

 

Hypothetical: Astros take Gray, Appel slips to 10, he's on the board when we pick. Bryant and Meadows are selected. What do you do? Take him?

[theblujay]

I can't believe we could have had Bryant and now he's projected to go top 5...

[TO1]

He's actually advanced a lot over the last 4 months. His velocity is steady low 90s, and he does not need to add much weight to add more velocity cause his delivery is so smooth and easy. Via natural maturation he's likely to add 3mph just because of that. His changeup is a legit plus pitch now, and his slurve is coming along very well. Pretty much all the draft pundits (PG, BA, Law, BP) agree his secondaries are very promising, and you can see even in this old video his change is very good and his slider/curve is effective. His natural athleticism also gives one confidence that whatever he learns he'll be able to translate to his game. As far as command, I've never heard anything negative about his command, and it would certainly not be uncommon compared to other high school players. I would not have a problem if the Jays drafted him, but like I said, I'm not really sure who I want at 10 beyond the vain hope that one of the top names drops.

 

I don't doubt that any HS kid adds natural strength as they leave their teens and enter their early twenties, even without growing. Its just maturing your muscle. I don't know of to many 22-23 year olds that weren't stronger than when they were 17-18, even without a growth spurt (same height, same weight). So I expect all these HS pitchers to get naturally stronger and maybe add a few ticks.

 

The problem is I highly doubt that a kid at 6-6 and only 175lbs will have the stamina to hold that velo deep into games unless he can bulk up. Less stress per unit mass adds endurance and Ball is a bean pole. And bean poles with his thin bone structure usually don't add mass easily.

 

One thing I don't like with a lot of scouting reports on HS pitchers is that they will state what velo a kid sits at and peaks at, but not a word if he can maintain that velo.

 

As for the secondaries, good for him if their coming along, but the fact is that HS guys like a Stewart, Bickford, Harvey, Kaminsky and Clarkin all already have a breaking pitch that are top notch and superior to Ball's. There is less projecting to do and hence less risk with respect to that side of the equation. In terms of velo all 5 guys I just mentioned throw just as hard or harder than Ball. And ultimately all 5 guys will get naturally stronger, as will Ball so to me that's a wash.

Ball's secondaries need work just to get to the starting point of where these other guys are already and guys like Kaminsky, Stewart and Bickford command the zone well to boot.

 

With the 10th pick I don't see the need to take a high-upside high-risk pick when I could take a high-upside lower-risk pick where the velo is equal or better, the secondaries are better, command is just as good or better and the weight issue is not an issue. If this was a pick in the 2nd half of the 1st round then fine. Get a high-upside high-risk guy as a lot of the other guys are gone by then. But its not.

[TO1]

I can't believe we could have had Bryant and now he's projected to go top 5...

 

Then you'll really hate next year with Beede and Wiper expected to go in the 1st round. Beede probably top 5 as well.

[Angrioter]

quickly here is Badler's (not BA as I stated)

 

10. BLUE JAYS: No team was more aggressive than Toronto in the 2012 draft, but it has no extra picks to play with this year. Expect the Blue Jays to go all-in here and grab the highest-ceiling player still available. If Stewart and Frazier are off the board, that means Ball or Meadows.

 

PROJECTED PICK: TREY BALL.

 

 

Trey Ball is like Anthony Alford..RAW, RAW guys

[TO1]

I don't really want Shipley after watching him. Dom Smith is really appealing to me, though, as are John Denny and Austin Meadows.

 

Hypothetical: Astros take Gray, Appel slips to 10, he's on the board when we pick. Bryant and Meadows are selected. What do you do? Take him?

 

If you think you can sign him, pre-draft deal, then go for it. He is the best complete pitcher out there.

Problem is I think that he thinks he's entitled to max money regardless of where he's taken and if that's the case move on b/c the Jays will not be able to sign him anyways.

Frazier will be long gone (Miami and Boston are hard for the kid) so if Smith is on the board I take him.

[GD]

If you think you can sign him, pre-draft deal, then go for it. He is the best complete pitcher out there.

Problem is I think that he thinks he's entitled to max money regardless of where he's taken and if that's the case move on b/c the Jays will not be able to sign him anyways.

Frazier will be long gone (Miami and Boston are hard for the kid) so if Smith is on the board I take him.

 

If Boston takes Frazier I'm gonna flip my s***.

[TO1]

There are quite a few HS experts who are much lower on Meadows. The College guys are gaining steam as Bryant is up to a top 3 guy on a lot of mocks and Moran is top 8 on most. Some have DJ Peterson top 10 too. Frazier and Meadows are linked so much, there is little negative coming out on Frazier but much more on Meadows.

 

BA and Law put up rankings/mocks today. I have to run though as I have a game tonight

 

I've been sounding like a broken record for 2 months now on the Frazier\Meadows thing.

Frazier is more toolsy in terms of right now, whereas Meadows is more to do with projection. With Frazier you know what your going to get and many of his tools (speed, arm, bat speed, power) don't need to get better to play up very well in the majors, whereas Meadows does need to improve in some areas (power) for him to be a star. Ultimately it will be determined by who actually has the better hit tool and that won't be know until well after the draft.

 

Speed wise it's a wash as their best 60 times are 6.3 vs. 6.4s

Frazier has current 6.5 power vs. 5.5 for Meadows

Frazier 8 arm vs. 6 for Meadows

Hit tool is hard to gauge for both, but Frazier has the bat speed that you just can't teach and Meadows will never have. Both have an all-field approach from what I've read. Frazier has the shorter stroke. Without knowing which guy has the better pitch recognition and which one will be less of a free swinger at the next level (lost my crystal ball) I would put my money on a better hit tool with Frazier at this current point due to his bat speed, all-field approach and shorter swing.

 

 

Meadows is the better CF. Takes better routs and gets better jumps. He's been a CF his whole life, while Frazier hasn't and will be more suited to RF with his arm.

 

If the hit tool variable were the same for both, Frazier has the louder tools that propel him to be the better overall player. That's why I think Meadows is starting to slip in some scouts eyes.

 

Remember that Frazier came out of nowhere last year and made a name for himself coming into this year. A lot of scouts saw none or very little of him in 2012, unlike this year where everyone's seen him b/c of the buzz he created last year. Meadows on the other hand has been well known in the scouting circles and was crowned since he put on a show for team USA under-17 team. Scouts are sometimes stubborn and crown a kid king and it takes time of seeing other guys for a while to change their minds.

 

It happened with Lance McCullers and Joey Gallo last year as well. They were expected to be close to the top of the 2012 draft after the 2011 season and they dropped hard on draft day. I don't see Meadows dropping anywhere like that, but if doesn't go top 7 it won't surprise me. And that would have been sacrilege in mocks to start off the 2013 season.

[TO1]

If Boston takes Frazier I'm gonna flip my s***.

 

That makes 2 of us.

[GD]

That makes 2 of us.

 

Don't get me wrong, I'd love Meadows, but Frazier is clearly superior. Hell, he may be the best player in the draft. The kid is insane.

[cornelius woodenfeet]

f***in eh!! just like a big brown dirty pancake.

[Captain Adama]

Personally, I'd rather the Jays draft Peterson over Ball.

[GD]

Personally, I'd rather the Jays draft Peterson over Ball.

 

Honestly, I'd rather they take neither. Much better options. I can think of 10 guys better than them both lol.

[TheHurl]

Then you'll really hate next year with Beede and Wiper expected to go in the 1st round. Beede probably top 5 as well.

 

Don't forget Nola and I think Wiper redshirted so he'll be another year before he's draft eligible.

[TheHurl]

Law's List with write up and grades. I'll post 1 through 10 if you don't have ESPN Insider but want to look someone up I'll give you Wilner's login and pw.

 

Appel started last year as the top guy in the draft, had a solid junior year but ended up sliding both out of the top spot on my board (to No. 4) and in the draft (to No. 8), choosing to return to Stanford for his senior year instead.

 

The aggressiveness that was lacking last year is there now, and his off-speed stuff is better, making the decision look extremely sound, as he's well-positioned to receive more than the $3.8 million he turned down from the Pirates. Appel will sit 92-97 mph frequently and has hit 99 in the past, holding his velocity deep into games and commanding the heck out of it, especially when he tries to work down in the zone.

 

His slider and changeup are both plus, with either pitch flashing at grade-70 level on the right night; when I saw him in early May, his changeup was the better of the two, 82-85 mph with action and great arm speed, one he could use effectively against hitters on both sides of the plate. His slider is 84-87 with big-time tilt, hard and away from right-handers, although when he tries to back-door it to left-handed hitters it can get slurvier and slow down to the point where better-caliber hitters will be able to serve it to left. Appel is a great athlete who repeats his delivery extremely well, getting out over his front side with a late release point and very clean mechanics.

 

One knock on him last year was that his delivery was so clean that hitters could pick the ball up too easily, but that wasn't the case when I saw him this year. He should go first overall to the Astros and I cannot imagine he goes later than second to the Cubs.

 

Player Grades

PRESENT FUTURE LOW(MPH) HIGH(MPH)

Fastball 65 70 -- --

FB Movement 50 50 -- --

Command 60 60 -- --

Control 65 65 -- --

Slider 60 65 -- --

Changeup 65 70 -- --

Feel for Pitching 65 70 -- --

Analysis by ESPN Scouts Inc. -Explanation of Grades

[TheHurl]

Gray is a power-armed righthander who exploded on the scene this spring with triple-digit velocity, a wipeout slider, and better conditioning that has him in the mix for the top overall pick in the draft.

 

He was drafted twice before and nearly signed with the Yankees out of junior college in 2011, backing away at the last minute and choosing instead to attend Oklahoma. Gray has a huge arm, sitting 92-97 when I saw him on the season's opening weekend and dialing it up two weeks later to 94-100, holding that velocity into the season. His slider is a plus pitch and often all he needs after the fastball to get through a college lineup, sharp with hard tilt, and he commands it well, throwing it at the back foot of left-handed hitters with confidence.

 

He has a straight changeup that's about average right now, more due to arm speed than action, and will even flash an occasional curveball. He takes a very long stride toward the plate with modest hip rotation, landing a little stiffly but generating tremendous arm speed along the way. He can lose his delivery a little out of the stretch, drifting off the rubber too soon, and his fastball command isn't as advanced as his control.

 

He's a potential No. 1 starter, not as high-probability as Mark Appel is but might bring the highest ceiling of any arm in the draft.

 

Player Grades

PRESENT FUTURE LOW(MPH) HIGH(MPH)

Fastball 80 80 -- --

FB Movement 45 45 -- --

Command 50 60 -- --

Control 60 60 -- --

Slider 65 70 -- --

Changeup 50 55 -- --

Feel for Pitching 55 60 -- --

[TheHurl]

Summary :

Bryant was a possible first-rounder out of high school -- I had him ranked 29th in that draft class -- but fell due to signability concerns and a middling performance in his senior year. He largely resolved the latter issue as a freshman for the Toreros, raking for three straight years now.

 

He sets up with a very wide base and has no stride, just a toe-tap for timing. It's a quiet swing overall, with excellent hip rotation for power, but his bat speed is just average or a tick better and I worry about his contact rates when he's consistently facing guys throwing 90-plus in pro ball. He can murder a good fastball but I'm not sure how he'll react to better off-speed stuff in the pros.

 

Now a third baseman, Bryant may not stay in the infield at all -- he's most likely to end up in right field, but would probably be above-average or better there, and I think there's a non-zero chance he stays at third, where he has plenty of arm and some athleticism but doesn't have the quick reactions a third baseman needs.

 

He's probably a low-average/high-power hitter down the road, with a ceiling of .260-.270 averages (and likely less) but 30-homer potential as well, and I expect him to go in the first five picks.

 

Player Grades

PRESENT FUTURE

Hitting 45 45

Power 70 70

Plate Discipline 50 55

Running Speed 40 40

Fielding Range 45 45

Arm Strength 55 55

Feel for Game -- --

[TheHurl]

Summary :

Meadows is an outstanding two-sport athlete who's still a little raw on the baseball field, especially at the plate, but offers the kind of long-term upside that few players in this draft class can match. The Clemson commit is very strong at 6-foot-3 and past 200 pounds, likely headed towards 230 or so when he fills out. He doesn't stride at the plate, with a little toe-tap as he loads his hands and very good acceleration once he's loaded.

 

He has a sound left-handed swing with plenty of bat speed and hip rotation for above-average power, although I'd like to see more loft in his finish, as a player of his size and strength should project to 70 or better in-game power. Adding a small stride might help and could also stop him from rolling over his front foot from time to time, something that right now leaves him vulnerable low and away.

 

He's a plus runner with a fringy arm, one that will play in center but, if he outgrows the position, would make right field impossible. He also doesn't play with a lot of energy right now, something that bothers many scouts who view that as a bad sign for the hard work and schedule required of pro players.

 

Meadows offers the potential for above-average hit and power tools, maybe more power with some tweaks to his setup at the plate, and average defense in center, but carries a lot of risk because of how much work his hit tool requires.

 

Player Grades

PRESENT FUTURE

Hitting 35 55

Power 45 65

Plate Discipline -- --

Running Speed 60 60

Fielding Range 45 50

Arm Strength 45 45

Feel for Game -- --

[TheHurl]

Kohl Stewart has a scholarship to carry a clipboard for Johnny Football next year at Texas A&M, but should never set food on campus except as a fan because his baseball future is so bright (and comes with lower risk of concussions).

 

He has four legitimate pitches with an athletic, strong build and the potential for two grade-70s offerings on the 20-80 scouting scale. His fastball is consistently 92-94, touching 97, with good downhill plane and some boring life to his arm side. He doesn't command the pitch yet or throw it for enough strikes, which may be inexperience of a function of the delivery. His slider is his best pitch, 85-88 with hard, late break down and away from right-handed hitters, although he doesn't command it as well as he does his hard 79-82 mph curveball. He also has a a straight change at 83-85 with solid arm speed but little action.

 

Stewart's delivery isn't ideal, as his hips are pretty stiff and his pitching arm doesn't pronate until fairly late, while he drifts forward off the rubber rather than taking a strong stride towards the plate, much of which may be the reason for his below-average command and control. Even with those issues, he's by far the best prep arm in the class and should go in the top half of the first round.

 

Player Grades

PRESENT FUTURE LOW(MPH) HIGH(MPH)

Fastball 65 70 -- --

FB Movement 50 50 -- --

Command 35 50 -- --

Control 40 50 -- --

Curveball 55 55 -- --

Slider 65 70 -- --

Changeup 50 50 -- --

Feel for Pitching 40 50 -- --

[TheHurl]

Shipley is a converted shortstop who only became a full-time pitcher last year, as a sophomore, but had a strong summer in Alaska and has brought that stuff forward into this spring, putting himself among the top 10 talents in the draft class.

 

He's hit 99 mph but pitches more at 92-95, throwing strikes with an easy, low-effort delivery. His best pitch is his changeup, a plus offering at 83-86 mph with great arm speed and heavy late action on it. His curveball is just average now, 78-80 with some angle to it and plenty of depth, but he has very little feel for the pitch and its break isn't consistent, perhaps due to lack of use. Shipley's arm is extremely quick and he takes a long stride toward the plate, turning his pitching hand over at about the last possible second (before I'd call it ?late?), generating a little arm speed from hip rotation but more from his upper body.

 

He doesn't finish well out over his front side, likely because the stride is long and his arm is so quick once he turns it over. He's very athletic, fielding his position well and showing no problems repeating the delivery. I didn't think it was easy to pick the ball up out of his hand, although that's not a consensus opinion and other scouts think he has too little deception because his delivery is so easy.

 

I think he's got plenty of upside as a relatively new pitcher with arm strength and athleticism you can't teach, and with more use of the curveball could have a ceiling as high as a No. 2 starter.

 

Player Grades

PRESENT FUTURE LOW(MPH) HIGH(MPH)

Fastball 60 70 -- --

FB Movement 45 45 -- --

Command 40 50 -- --

Control 45 55 -- --

Curveball 50 60 -- --

Changeup 65 65 -- --

Feel for Pitching 40 50 -- --

[TheHurl]

Frazier has the best bat speed in the draft, some of the best I've ever seen on an amateur player, along with raw power and a playing style with a ton of energy, much of which makes up for his lack of physical projection.

 

His swing comes from his extremely quick hands, and the swing is fundamentally sound, without the kind of backside collapse you see in some players who have bat speed but have to use maximum effort to get to it. He rotates his hips well and has loft in the swing for power, so when he squares something up, it goes a long way. His pitch recognition isn't that advanced, as he looks fastball and can murder a hanging breaking ball but has even struggled against high-school quality off-speed stuff.

 

He's an average runner who'll end up in an outfield corner, probably in right if he regains more of the plus arm strength he showed before tendinitis reduced it to about average. Frazier already has a big leaguer's physique, which is great but doesn't allow scouts or teams to dream on future growth -- in other words, he doesn't project to add strength or power as he adds muscle to his frame, because he's unlikely to get much bigger. There's room for growth in his game, such as recognizing off-speed pitches sooner, but he won't get it from the physical side.

 

I think he's a top ten pick, a worthwhile bet that the hit and power tools will develop, but the floor if he doesn't hit is probably not a big leaguer.

 

Player Grades

PRESENT FUTURE

Hitting -- --

Power -- --

Plate Discipline -- --

Running Speed -- --

Fielding Range -- --

Arm Strength -- --

Feel for Game -- --

[TheHurl]

Manaea was nowhere on the prospect map until he went to the Cape Cod League last summer and started hitting 96 with a plus slider, putting up numbers that rival those of the best pitchers in the Cape League's history, including 85 strikeouts in 51 2/3 innings against just seven walks and 21 hits.

 

He hasn't shown the same caliber of stuff this spring, working more at 89-94, commanding it well to both sides of the plate and getting a ton of swings and misses on the pitch because hitters don't pick up the ball out of his hand. His slider has been more solid-average on balance, but is very inconsistent, often underthrown rather than the long, biting pitch he showed on the Cape.

 

Both his slider and straight changeup are in the 78-82 mph range, but neither is an out pitch right now for pro hitters; he has good arm speed on the change but, despite a split-like grip, it has no significant action on it. Manaea's arm isn't especially quick, but he generates velocity by taking a very long stride toward the plate and getting some torque from hip rotation. He has a high leg kick and stays over the rubber well before driving forward. His arm action is a little long in back; when his front foot lands he's still showing the ball to the centerfielder, only pronating after his front leg is already planted. He comes from a slot below three-quarters, a little above that of Madison Bumgarner.

 

Manaea profiles more as a league-average big-league starter right now, but a team that thinks he can recapture his look from the summer of 2012 might take him higher than that in the draft.

 

Player Grades

PRESENT FUTURE LOW(MPH) HIGH(MPH)

Fastball 50 55 -- --

FB Movement 45 45 -- --

Command 60 65 -- --

Control 65 65 -- --

Slider 50 50 -- --

Changeup 50 50 -- --

Feel for Pitching 60 65 -- --

[TheHurl]

Moran is the most advanced bat in the class this year, including an absurd 39 BB/8 K ratio as of April 28, but faces questions about whether he can stay at third base and how well the swing will play in pro ball. At the plate, Moran has a great eye and generates good bat speed, with solid extension through the zone for average power or a tick above. He takes a long stride forward in the box but keeps his weight back, also keeping his hands very deep, with good hip rotation as well. It's not a pretty swing, and it's not that consistent -- his hands come set in a different spot from swing to swing, and on some swings his front side goes soft (where he rolls over his front foot). He must have extremely strong wrists as well, because he's a little late getting the barrel of the bat into the zone but still manages to make a lot of hard contact.

 

At third, he has outstanding hands and an easy throwing motion, along with great arm strength, so anything he gets to at third, he handles well, getting rid of the ball quickly. He's a fringy runner and his feet are not quick -- he tends to run a little flat-footed and often has trouble getting his feet started in the field because he's set up on his heels. However once he gets moving, he's fine, and should end up with average range at the position, or maybe a touch below, making up for it with sure-handedness and a plus arm.

 

If third doesn't work -- MLB teams do seem to emphasize third base defense today more than in the past -- he'd have to move to first. He's almost certainly a top five pick, but I am just concerned enough about the unorthodox swing to rate him slightly lower than that.

 

Player Grades

PRESENT FUTURE

Hitting 55 55

Power 55 60

Plate Discipline -- --

Running Speed 40 50

Fielding Range 50 50

Arm Strength 60 60

Feel for Game -- --

[TheHurl]

Donenic Smith is one of the best pure hitters in the high school class, showing a smooth left-handed swing with power and a plus glove at first base. When he keeps his weight back, his swing is outstanding, with great balance through contact and good hip rotation to generate power from his legs. He has quick, strong wrists, with a projectable body that should lead to very hard contact when he fills out in three or four years. He can drift forward at the plate too early, getting his weight out over his front side before he's started his hands, losing power and struggling to control the bat head behind him. His stride is long and early, which may be part of the reason for his trouble staying back but is an easy fix in pro ball.

 

Smith is an excellent defender at first with a 70 arm, hitting 92 off the mound the one time I saw him pitch, albeit with a rough delivery. He doesn't show a lot of energy on the field, which has positive aspects (he's a confident, relaxed hitter) and negative ones (some scouts have questioned the effort level, myself included), but there are no serious concerns about his makeup. In this draft, with so few potential impact bats, he's a clear top 20 talent.

 

Player Grades

PRESENT FUTURE

Hitting 55 65

Power 50 60

Plate Discipline -- --

Running Speed 45 45

Fielding Range 55 60

Arm Strength 70 70

Feel for Game -- --