A Very Darrelly Dynasty League

[BTS]

Isn't Burch Smith overrated by Steamer every year? I seem to recall North furiously fapping over his October projection for as long as I can remember.

 

yeah, it's actually bizarre. one year they had him for like 240 strikeouts and an ERA a bit over 3.

[Cyborg]

Yeah, I also seem to remember Souza with a crazy high wRC+ projection.

It was 118. Which was high, but not crazy.

[BTS]

Souza isn't a bad player for fantasy even if he isn't the guy minor league stats thought he'd be. Could easily go 20-20 next year with a usable OBP.

 

Yeah. I could use him.

[Dr. Dinger]

I didn't find what JFaS did, but here you go Mr. Hindsight warrior:

 

You didn't find the posts where North's projections had Souza at #45 on his big board and #69 on JFaS'? At the time he projected for 20/20 with a .340+ wOBA. I'm pretty sure a 120 wRC+ OF isn't ending up in anybody's Top 70.

[Dr. Dinger]

Souza isn't a bad player for fantasy even if he isn't the guy minor league stats thought he'd be. Could easily go 20-20 next year with a usable OBP.

 

That's a far cry from the Top 50 player you projected him to be, though.

[Boxcar]

You didn't find the posts where North's projections had Souza at #45 on his big board and #69 on JFaS'? At the time he projected for 20/20 with a .340+ wOBA. I'm pretty sure a 120 wRC+ OF isn't ending up in anybody's Top 70.

 

Power/Speed kept Ellsbury there for awhile.

[Cyborg]

You didn't find the posts where North's projections had Souza at #45 on his big board and #69 on JFaS'? At the time he projected for 20/20 with a .340+ wOBA. I'm pretty sure a 120 wRC+ OF isn't ending up in anybody's Top 70.

Stealzzzzz

[Dr. Dinger]

Power/Speed kept Ellsbury there for awhile.

 

Ellsbury had a .412 OBP, 124 wRC+ before his knee injury this year. With the offseason to recoup, he should again be pretty valuable next year. I'd comfortably take him ahead of Souza in a 2016 redraft.

[Dr. Dinger]

Stealzzzzz

 

Care to share your pre-draft Top 100 with us so we can see the math that helped you arrive at a Top 70 valuation? 20 steals doesn't get him there with a 120 wRC+.

[Boxcar]

Ellsbury had a .412 OBP, 124 wRC+ before his knee injury this year. With the offseason to recoup, he should again be pretty valuable next year. I'd comfortably take him ahead of Souza in a 2016 redraft.

 

He was comfortably top 70 this year, though. I'm just saying that guys who supply good amounts of both steals and homers are more valuable than you seem to be giving them credit for.

[Laika]

Why is Steven Souza even the cautionary tale against trusting projections?

 

He battled injuries and still had a 103 wRC+, with a 600 PA pace of 23/17. Recurrent wrist and hand injuries probably sapped some of his power too - I remember earlier season games in Toronto where he was going second deck in CF and displaying JB/JD/EE level raw.

 

If anything, Souza tended towards his projections last year but injuries made him fall short.

 

If he can stay healthy, I expect him to be better in every way in 2016.

[Dr. Dinger]

He was comfortably top 70 this year, though. I'm just saying that guys who supply good amounts of both steals and homers are more valuable than you seem to be giving them credit for.

 

Ellsbury was much higher than Top 70 before his injury. I don't think what we saw this year was indicative of a major decline in skill so much as it was a hobbled player. I'm biased though, but at least I will admit it.

[Dr. Dinger]

Why is Steven Souza even the cautionary tale against trusting projections?

 

He battled injuries and still had a 103 wRC+, with a 600 PA pace of 23/17. Recurrent wrist and hand injuries probably sapped some of his power too - I remember earlier season games in Toronto where he was going second deck in CF and displaying JB/JD/EE level raw.

 

If anything, Souza tended towards his projections last year but injuries made him fall short.

 

That really was a MONSTER blast. He got badly exposed as the year went on, however, and as expected by the scouting reports, he struck out much more frequently against advanced pitching.

[Cyborg]

Care to share your pre-draft Top 100 with us so we can see the math that helped you arrive at a Top 70 valuation? 20 steals doesn't get him there with a 120 wRC+.

With steals he projected to have the same value as Mookie Betts, with 0 steals instead of 27 he projected to have the same value as Allen Craig, Billy Butler, and Adam Lind.

[Laika]

March - sprained forearm diving for a ball (no DL)

April - leaves game with forearm pain from previous injury (no DL)

May - sprained wrist in a collision (no DL)

July - lacerates finger on HBP, losing some feeling, DL.

August - fractures hand on HBP by Joe Kelly. Misses 6 weeks.

 

Stupid Steamer!!!!!

[Laika]

Anyone want Ben Revere? He'll probably score 120 runs next year for Toronto. I could trade him for a s***** C that might have a chance of being fantasy relevant. Or even just a pick, if nobody wants to move a C.

 

Also very much on the block, but more expensive, are Carlos Santana and Jason Hammel. I need C and SS.

[TheHurl]

Stupid Steamer!!!!!

 

Their Oscar Taveras projections seem to be spot on though.

 

I'd also like to point out that Collabello and Gallo are projected for similar numbers next year, don't let 10 years age difference get between you and having a guy with Joey Gallo'esk power.

[TheHurl]

Anyone want Ben Revere? He'll probably score 120 runs next year for Toronto. I could trade him for a s***** C that might have a chance of being fantasy relevant. Or even just a pick, if nobody wants to move a C.

 

Also very much on the block, but more expensive, are Carlos Santana and Jason Hammel. I need C and SS.

 

Tell Gibbers to get on my offer and you have Wellie.

[Laika]

KingKat darling Tyler Chatwood projects for 3.0 WAR per 200 innings.

 

Rich Hill gets to 3.2 RA9 WAR (same as Gerrit Cole, Jordan Zimmermann) on the strength of nearly a strikeout per inning. Will he get a three-year deal? Why back up the truck for Zimmermann when you can get his equal on a shorter term.

 

Do you know who Rich Hill is???

[BTS]

KingKat darling Tyler Chatwood projects for 3.0 WAR per 200 innings.

 

Rich Hill gets to 3.2 RA9 WAR (same as Gerrit Cole, Jordan Zimmermann) on the strength of nearly a strikeout per inning. Will he get a three-year deal? Why back up the truck for Zimmermann when you can get his equal on a shorter term.

 

Uh...

[Laika]

Tell Gibbers to get on my offer and you have Wellie.

 

Step #1 - do the trade with me

Step #2 - I promise to bug Gibbers to do the thing you want him to do that I do not care about at all

[Laika]

What's the most $$$ you guys would offer Rich Hill?

[jaysblue]

What's the most $$$ you guys would offer Rich Hill?

 

Tough call since can't think of a similar case like Rich Hill before. Maybe $2.5 - $3 million + incentives. Depending on which teams come calling and if he's guaranteed a rotation start.

[Laika]

2/15 with a team option at 12? He was Kershaw's equal for four starts. How to weigh that is tricky. He hasn't actually been that bad over his career though; it's not clear that 'proven' back-end filler like Estrada and Dickey that teams are willing to commit to are better options.

 

He'd probably sign for almost any 1 year guaranteed MLB deal, lol.

[BTS]

I think he'll get like 1/3 guaranteed + a team option for 3-4.

[jaysblue]

The only comparison I could really think of would be Erik Bedard. He signed a 1 year deal worth $4.5 million with the Pirates after the 2011 season and with the Astros the following offseason as well on a 1 year deal worth $1.1 million. I think Hill will get a guaranteed 1/3 deal + incentives along with a team option. Worst case scenario, he ends up in the bullpen which even at 3M isn't the end of the world.

[jaysblue]

I think he'll get like 1/3 guaranteed + a team option for 3-4.

 

I bet the Pirates sign him.

[Dr. Dinger]

I f***ing HATE Rich Hill. ****.

[TheHurl]

Step #1 - do the trade with me

Step #2 - I promise to bug Gibbers to do the thing you want him to do that I do not care about at all

 

If I get a trade done with Gibbers I can give you both a bad catcher and a bad SS

[Spanky99]

I didn't know we were creating team mission statements for this season.

 

Kev, where's that piece you posted about 40 man and injuries leading to Playoff rosters?

 

It doesn't have any insinuations of a Sept 1st 40 man does it?