Leo Morgenstern

According to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, right-handed reliever Phil Maton remains a top trade candidate with hours to go before this evening's deadline. Goold writes that "talks involving" Maton continued late into the night yesterday and names the Blue Jays as one team involved in those discussions. The Blue Jays had been linked to former Cardinals closer Ryan Helsley before the Mets acquired his services on Wednesday. Meanwhile, I suggested earlier this week that former Blue Jay (and now former Cardinal) Steven Matz would be a great trade target for Toronto, but he has since become the newest member of the Red Sox. That leaves Maton as the top trade chip left in St. Louis's bullpen. So, could the Jays strike a deal to bring Maton to Toronto? The righty might not be a Helsley or Jhoan Duran-level acquisition, but he has a 2.35 ERA and 2.55 xERA in 40 games this year and a 3.10 ERA in 179 appearances over the past three seasons. There is little doubt he would improve the Jays' bullpen, and it's no secret that Ross Atkins is looking to do exactly that ahead of the deadline. Should the Blue Jays try to strike a deal with the Cardinals for Phil Maton? Or is there another bullpen arm you'd rather they target? Join the conversation in our comments section. Featured image courtesy of Jerome Miron, Imagn Images. View full rumor

Over the past couple of weeks, we’ve written a lot more about pitchers than hitters here at Jays Centre in our pre-trade deadline coverage. That makes sense. Numerous reports have suggested the Blue Jays are prioritizing pitching upgrades, and it’s also a lot easier to imagine how a new pitcher could fit in on the roster. Still, if the Jays are looking to stay on top of the American League down the stretch, they’ll need to look down every possible avenue for improvement before the deadline. In other words, they need to consider bats as well as arms. The front office knows as much. A month ago, Ross Atkins told reporters (including MLB.com's Keegan Matheson) that he was looking to add a right-handed bat. Of course, he made those comments before the Blue Jays led the majors in hits, runs, OPS, and wRC+ over the first 30 days of July, but nonetheless, I do expect Toronto to add at least one position player before six o'clock tomorrow evening. The most prominent hitter they have been linked to so far is Steven Kwan of the Guardians, but they're also rumored to have checked in on Harrison Bader and Willi Castro of the Twins, and there are several other bats on the market they could consider adding over the next 30 hours. Yet, if the Blue Jays are going to add a hitter, it's fair to wonder how they'll make room on the roster. As the active roster stands right now, the Jays could option any of Leo Jiménez, Will Wagner, or Joey Loperfido to free up space. The situation could get far more complicated, however, if/when all three of Daulton Varsho, Andrés Giménez, and Anthony Santander return from the injured list. Here is what Toronto's lineup and bench would look like if everyone on the roster were healthy: Starting Lineup Alejandro Kirk - C Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 1B Andrés Giménez - 2B Bo Bichette - SS Ernie Clement - 3B George Springer - LF Daulton Varsho - CF Addison Barger - RF Anthony Santander - DH Bench Tyler Heineman - C Davis Schneider - OF/INF Nathan Lukes - OF Myles Straw - OF Looking at this picture, I'd argue the most straightforward way for Toronto to improve the lineup is to look for an upgrade at third base or in the outfield. A third baseman would supplant Ernie Clement, while an outfield addition would force Addison Barger back into the infield. In either case, Clement would go from being the theoretical everyday third baseman back into a utility role (for which he's best suited anyway). The question then becomes, whose spot would Clement take on the bench? Davis Schneider is hitting too well to be sent down right now. Indeed, he's hitting well enough that you could argue he belongs in that starting lineup I drew up, at least on days when a lefty starter takes on the mound for the opposition. Meanwhile, Myles Straw is one of the only Blue Jays who isn't hitting well right now, but he is an elite defensive center fielder and a far better backup option at the position (defensively speaking) than Nathan Lukes. What's more, Straw, unlike Lukes, cannot be optioned to the minor leagues. To remove Straw from the roster, the Blue Jays would have to designate him for assignment and pass him through waivers. The money left on his contract (about $10 million) would surely prevent any other teams from claiming him. However, once he passed through waivers, he would have the right to reject an outright assignment in favor of free agency. A year ago, he never would have made that choice; he'd be sacrificing all the guaranteed salary remaining on his deal. Earlier this season, however, he surpassed five years of MLB service time, which means he can now reject an outright assignment without forfeiting any money. That means the Blue Jays would most likely lose Straw's services and still be on the hook for his salary. Do the Blue Jays like Lukes more than Straw? Yes, I'm pretty confident they do. But if forced to decide between losing Straw entirely or optioning Lukes to Triple-A, I think they'd choose the latter. That would be a tough blow for Lukes, who has done nothing to deserve a demotion. Yet, from Toronto's perspective, it would hardly be the worst thing to have a player like Lukes available as depth – especially since the hypothetical situation I'm considering, one in which every hitter on the roster is healthy, is unlikely to transpire. Another option Atkins and Co. could consider is trading Lukes. After all, he has proven this season that he is a capable major leaguer, and he might be more valuable in a trade than he would be twiddling his thumbs in Buffalo. To that point, The Athletic's Mitch Bannon recently reported that the Jays have "indicated a willingness to trade big league position players" ahead of the deadline. That could refer to players with more recent prospect status, like Alan Roden, Jonatan Clase, Loperfido, Wagner, or Jiménez, but it could also end up being someone like Lukes. Indeed, if we're talking about a player who has genuinely cemented himself as a "big league player," I can't really imagine it being anyone other than Lukes. (Or, at least, I don't want to imagine it. I'm begging you Ross, please don't trade Barger or Clement!) One more path for the Jays, if they're particularly inclined to keep Lukes in Toronto, would be to make a trade that lets them feel comfortable parting ways with Straw. Specifically, I'm imagining the Jays trading for Harrison Bader. He would fill the same niche as Straw – he's an elite defensive center fielder - but he's also a significantly better hitter, and he's in the midst of a career-best year at the plate. Bader could be the right-handed bat the Jays are looking for, and with Bader and Varsho playing alongside one another in the outfield, Toronto's already excellent defense would become that much better. Moreover, with Bader on the roster, the Jays really wouldn't have any need for Straw anymore. That might make them feel better about eating the money remaining on his contract. In fact, I even wonder if they could convince Minnesota to take Straw as part of the return package for Bader, provided Toronto covered almost all of his remaining salary. After all, the Twins could use a center fielder with Byron Buxton on the injured list. All this to say, the Blue Jays have ways to make room for an upgrade to the lineup, even if they eventually have to make some difficult decisions. With the deadline coming up tomorrow evening, it won't be long before we have a much better idea of what those difficult decisions might be. View full article

Steven Matz has pitched 11 big league seasons, none of which was more successful than his lone campaign with the Toronto Blue Jays in 2021. In 29 starts and 150.2 innings, the left-hander won a career-high 14 games, while pitching to a 3.82 ERA. He racked up 2.7 FanGraphs WAR, putting him among the top 20 starting pitchers in the American League. Matz’s performance that year earned him a four-year, $44 million pact with the St. Louis Cardinals the following winter, and he is currently playing out the final season of that contract. His tenure with the Cardinals has had its ups and downs, to say the least, marred by several trips to the injured list and frequent shuttling between the starting rotation and the bullpen. In 2025, however, Matz has taken on a primary relief role for the first time in his career, and he’s thriving. He has pitched in 31 games, including two spot starts and 29 bullpen appearances. Over 54 innings, the veteran southpaw has a 3.17 ERA, a 3.10 xERA, and 1.2 fWAR. The Cardinals have gone 22-9 in his outings. Best of all, he has, to this point, avoided the injured list entirely for the first time in his 11-year big league career. Entering play on Tuesday, the Cardinals are 55-53 and only 3.5 games back of a Wild Card berth. However, with the trade deadline two days away, they seem more likely to be sellers than buyers. Several Cardinals players have come up in trade rumors in recent weeks, including utility player Brendan Donovan and closer Ryan Helsley (who has been linked to the Blue Jays). Helsley went so far as to say that the “likelihood is probably as great as it’s ever been” that he will be dealt before Thursday (per The Athletic’s Katie Woo). Matz is another name that has been caught up in the rumor mill. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch recently reported that “a handful of teams” have expressed some degree of interest in Matz, in part due to his versatility. The lefty has proven this season that he has the chops to succeed as a high-leverage reliever, but he also has 172 career starts under his belt, including two as recent as this past April. After Matz’s struggles in 2024 – he pitched to a 5.08 ERA in 44.1 innings on either side of a four-month IL stint – the Cardinals may very well have come into 2025 thinking of his $12.5 million salary as all but dead money. That's no longer the case. Still, if they’re selling at all, they would surely be happy to get the $4.17 million they still owe him for the final third of the season off their books. Meanwhile, Toronto should be more than willing to take that salary on. As The Athletic’s Mitch Bannon pointed out earlier today, a swingman type makes a ton of sense for the Blue Jays right now. They need bullpen help, no doubt about it. As for the rotation, if they’re not going to make a huge splash and add a frontline starter, they still need extra depth to survive the final two months of the season. Matz would instantly upgrade the bullpen, and he’d give the Jays a solid backup plan for the rotation. Bannon identified Matz and Michael Soroka (whom Jim Scott wrote about as a potential trade target last week) as two strong examples of this type of player. Matz doesn’t come without his downsides. The fact that he has stayed healthy so far in 2025 does not erase his injury-prone reputation. And while he has been outstanding this year, 54 innings make for a tiny sample compared to the 927.2 innings he threw before this season. Regression in the wrong direction is a very real possibility. With that said, there’s no such thing as a risk-free trade, especially for a pitcher. The Blue Jays should absolutely be playing at the top of the market, competing to land difference-makers like Helsley, David Bednar, and others of their caliber. However, the Blue Jays shouldn’t only be shopping for stars, and Matz is exactly the kind of complementary piece they need. He’s a versatile veteran pitcher enjoying a terrific season, and it certainly helps that we have seen him succeed in Toronto before. View full article

When ESPN's Jeff Passan included Steven Kwan on his list of this summer's top trade candidates, he noted that "Cleveland doesn't want to deal him" but acknowledged that "the Guardians at the very least will listen to see if teams are willing to blow them away with offers." Unsurprisingly, several teams have already come up in trade rumors involving the two-time All-Star and three-time Gold Glove winner, who remains under team control via arbitration through the 2027 season. The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal reports that the Blue Jays, as well as the Dodgers, Phillies, and Padres, are "in the mix" to land Kwan. Jays Centre's Owen Hill recently wrote about the possibility of Toronto trading for Kwan, noting that "his style of play would fit seamlessly with what the Jays already do well" and that he would "immediately put a stop to the revolving door in the leadoff spot." Meanwhile, Jays Centre's Jesse Burrill included Kwan in his piece about the pros and cons of various potential trade deadline targets. Burrill pointed out that "you don’t have to squint very hard to see why the Blue Jays would be interested in a player like Kwan," but also recognized that this team already has a crowded outfield, and a player like Kwan certainly won't come cheap. So, do you think the Blue Jays should target Kwan ahead of Thursday's trade deadline? Or are you concerned his price tag will be too high and think the Jays would be better off pursuing other upgrades? Join the discussion in the comments section! Featured image courtesy of Denny Medley-Imagn Images. View full rumor

Welcome back! The first half of the 2025 season is nearly over, and no, your eyes aren't deceiving you, the Blue Jays really are in first place in the AL East. I understand this must be a disorienting experience for many, so I'm here to help. I've put together a detailed guide to explain how and why the Toronto Blue Jays have been consistently winning baseball games. If you're just joining us, I highly recommend checking out part one of this series, in which I introduced the concept and wrote about the individual players who have been most critical in helping the Jays exceed expectations. Today, I'm turning my focus to a few larger team-wide trends. The stats and rankings in this article were updated prior to games on July 9. The Blue Jays Don't Strike Out The Blue Jays have had more success scoring runs than preventing them, both throughout the season and during their recent hot streak. Their offense ranks ninth out of 30 teams in runs scored per game, while their pitching staff and defense have allowed more runs to cross the plate than all but nine other teams. As the bats have powered the Jays to the top of the AL East, their defining trait has been how rarely they swing and miss, and, for precisely that reason, how rarely they strike out. The Blue Jays have done well at limiting strikeouts for several years, but the 2025 team is taking that approach to a new level. The Blue Jays have the highest rate of contact per swing and the lowest rate of strikeouts per plate appearance in the majors this season. In fact, they have the lowest strikeout rate of any team in a single season since the 2017 (World Series-winning) Astros. Still not sufficiently impressed? Toronto's strikeout rate is about five percentage points lower (i.e., better) than the league average. If you're not sure what to make of that number, just trust me – five percentage points is a lot at the team level. The Blue Jays' 2025 strikeout rate, as compared to the league average strikeout rate, is one of the 10 best in MLB history since the turn of the 20th century. Not the 21st century, the 20th. To state the obvious, avoiding strikeouts is a good strategy. The Blue Jays really aren't that special when they put the ball in play. They rank in the middle of the pack in almost every statistic that measures quality of contact. However, they make contact so often that their offense is still comfortably above average. Here's the downside: A contact-oriented approach is, by nature, a streakier approach. Singles and doubles are less predictable than strikeouts and home runs. That means teams that make a lot of contact, but not necessarily high-quality contact, are prone to hot streaks and slumps. We saw such a slump in April, when the Jays lost 11 of 17 games over the last three weeks of the month. They barely averaged three runs per game. Fortunately, we're seeing the opposite right now. Don't Ignore the Defense Preventing runs matters just as much as scoring them, and pitchers can't prevent runs all on their own. Yet, I've found that fans, analysts, and, heck, even a lot of teams don't value defense as highly as they should. Thankfully, the Blue Jays aren't one of those teams. Defense has been a top priority in Toronto for years. It's why the Jays traded their first-ranked prospect for Daulton Varsho in 2022. It's why they took on Andrés Giménez and Myles Straw from the Guardians when plenty of other teams would have called their contracts bad money. It's why they extended Alejandro Kirk in March, even though he was coming off two consecutive down years at the plate. It's why they've kept coming back to Tyler Heineman as a backup catcher. And it's paying off. The Blue Jays place first among all teams in the comprehensive defense metric Fielding Run Value (FRV). They also rank within the top five in Outs Above Average (OAA) and Defensive Runs Saved (DRS). That's despite the fact that Varsho and Giménez, arguably their two best defenders, have each missed significant time this year with injuries. Toronto's pitching staff doesn't look all that impressive right now. That's something general manager will have to address ahead of the trade deadline on July 31. Nonetheless, a mediocre group of pitchers that lacks both depth and top-end talent hasn't hurt this team nearly as much as it could have. That's thanks to all the defenders – including Varsho, Giménez, Straw, Kirk, Heineman, Ernie Clement, and Addison Barger – who have kept runners off the bases and runs off the scoreboard. Elite contact skills have helped the Blue Jays gain leads. An impenetrable defense has helped them stay ahead. However, the Jays are still facing a long road between where they stand now and where they need to be to reach the playoffs. They have no shortage of questions to answer over the final months of the year. Will their surprise contributors continue exceeding expectations? Can a streaky offense become a little more consistent? Is the defense strong enough to compensate down the stretch if the pitching staff doesn't improve? I don't have the answers. All we can do is wait and see. Baseball is always hard to predict, and the Blue Jays especially so. Yet, I'm a heck of a lot more confident in this club than I was just a few months back. That brand new feeling in your gut? It's called optimism. The Toronto Blue Jays, yes, those Toronto Blue Jays, are a good baseball team. Let's enjoy it for as long as it lasts. View full article

Hi there! Are you a Torontonian whose relationship with the Blue Jays starts and ends with Loonie Dog Night? Do you know the name Vladimir Guerrero Jr., but you're more familiar with his work in the Uncrustables commercials than on the baseball diamond? Or perhaps you're a dedicated fan who's watched every game, and you're still confused as to how the Jays have built a comfortable lead atop the AL East. Either way, this guide is for you. The last time the Blue Jays held sole possession of first place in their division this late in the season was September 2016. The last time they won 10 games in a row was a year before that. They're on pace for their highest win total in a season since 1993. (Was that a special year? I can't remember.) So, if you're surprised or skeptical, you aren't alone. It's only been two years since the Blue Jays last made the playoffs, but last season's slow start and subsequent summer sell-off are fresher in all of our minds. And while the Blue Jays were good in 2022 and '23, they haven't been this good in close to a decade. How are they doing it? This is part one of a two-part series. Today, I'll take a look at the individual players who have been most critical in helping the Blue Jays exceed expectations. Come back tomorrow for part two, in which I'll discuss a pair of significant team-wide trends. The stats and rankings in this article were updated prior to games on July 9. Starting the Clock and Turning It Back Several of Toronto's most valuable contributors this year are just starting the clocks on their major league careers. Addison Barger is playing in his second MLB campaign and first full season. After struggling to make an impact in 69 games last year, he has been one of the Blue Jays' best hitters over his first 69 games in 2025. The 25-year-old boasts one of the fastest swings in the league, and, accordingly, he hits the ball harder than almost anyone. His average exit velocity (the speed at which balls come off his bat) leads the team and ranks second among qualified AL hitters, behind only the presumptive MVP Aaron Judge. His hard-hit rate (the percentage of his batted balls hit at 95 mph or faster) is also first on the Jays and third in the AL, trailing only Judge and All-Star Jonathan Aranda. Barger has put his tremendous strength to excellent use, slugging 21 doubles and 12 home runs. That's an average of one extra-base hit (double, triple, or home run) every 7.6 trips to the plate. The only AL batters (min. 200 plate appearances) who have hit for extra bases more often are Judge and MLB home run leader Cal Raleigh. I hope you're picking up on a pattern here: Barger has given us numerous legitimate reasons to utter his name in the same breath as generational superstar and future Hall of Famer Aaron Judge. A hitter of that calibre coming out of almost nowhere (Barger opened the season with the Triple-A Buffalo Bisons) to join the middle of Toronto's lineup is one of the primary reasons the offense is thriving. Meanwhile, the bullpen has prospered thanks to three breakout arms: Brendon Little, Yariel Rodríguez, and Braydon Fisher. Little and Rodríguez are in their sophomore seasons, although Rodríguez is pitching out of the bullpen for the first time. Fisher is a rookie who made his MLB debut in May. All three have done a phenomenal job preventing runs, and they have slowly gained more of manager John Schneider's trust. The veteran relievers who were supposed to anchor the bullpen haven't lived up to expectations. Jeff Hoffman has been wildly inconsistent. Yimi García has hurt himself twice; most recently, he slipped and sprained his ankle while getting into the tub. Erik Swanson has already been designated for assignment (i.e., cut), and Chad Green is teetering on the edge of a DFA himself. Yet, Little, Rodriguez, and Fisher have stepped up, and a Blue Jays bullpen that ranked among the worst in the game last year has transformed into a true strength. Ernie Clement isn't a new big leaguer. He's in his fifth MLB season and his third with Toronto. However, he is a full-time player for the first time, and he's making a name for himself as one of the game's premier infield defenders. He has offered the Blue Jays strong defense at all four infield positions, and his versatility has been extraordinarily valuable to Schneider as the manager fills out his lineup cards. Various online sources calculate a comprehensive value statistic called Wins Above Replacement (WAR). WAR attempts to capture all of a player's contributions in one simple number. According to each of the two most prominent versions of WAR (from FanGraphs and Baseball Reference), Clement has been the second most productive player on the team, and he's the only player who ranks in the top three of both versions. He may not have a set role in the starting lineup, but Clement is one of the most indispensable members of this ballclub. The final player who demands recognition is the farthest thing from a breakout youngster. George Springer leads the Blue Jays in several offensive categories, including home runs, runs batted in (RBI), and stolen bases, as well as the comprehensive batting stats OPS and wRC+. The multi-time All-Star is approaching his 36th birthday, and from 2023-24, he seemed to be showing his age. In 2025, he has turned back the clock, and he's hitting as well as ever. If we're talking about contributions from unexpected places, Springer's resurgent showing has been just as important as any younger player's performance. These six aren't the only talented players on the Blue Jays, and they aren't the only reasons the team is succeeding. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Alejandro Kirk were recently named All-Stars, and rightly so, for their strong first-half performances. Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, and Chris Bassitt might not be flashy, but they are three of the most durable and reliable starting pitchers in the league. Tyler Heineman has been better than any backup catcher has any right to be. However, it's no big surprise that Vladdy and Captain Kirk are heading to the All-Star Game. They've been there before. As for Gausman, Berríos, and Bassit, they're doing their jobs and doing them well, but they aren't knocking anyone's socks off. Heineman has been a delightful surprise, but no one believes he'll keep hitting like this all year long. Barger, Little, Rodríguez, Fisher, Clement, and Springer have proven to be significantly more valuable contributors than almost any of us thought they would be. They're all exceeding expectations, and if they continue to do so, the Blue Jays will too. View full article

As of July 7, the Blue Jays rank fourth in the majors in OPS from their right-handed hitters. They rank second in wRC+. Unfortunately, their left-handed batters have not enjoyed nearly as much success; they rank 23rd in both of the aforementioned metrics. It's a good thing, then, that righty batters have taken 63% of the team's plate appearances, the fifth-highest rate in the majors. On a closely related note, the Blue Jays have performed notably better against left-handed pitchers this year. Their 110 wRC+ against southpaws ranks seventh in MLB, while their 104 wRC+ against righties ranks 13th. With all that in mind, you might be wondering why I'm writing about Toronto's need for another right-handed bat. That's a fair question. It seems like the Jays already have plenty of righties, and as a group, they've performed pretty darn well. For one thing, keep in mind that George Springer and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are doing a lot of the heavy lifting from the right-hand side. The real crux of the issue, however, has nothing to do with right-handed bats at all. Take a look at this Punnett square of platoon splits: Blue Jays wRC+ Splits Handedness RHP LHP RHH 106 128 LHH 102 36 Data via FanGraphs, prior to games on July 7. Even against left-handed pitching, the Blue Jays have received better production from their right-handed bats. That's partly because they have two of the best righty batters in the game atop their lineup, but the bigger problem is that their lefty batters, collectively speaking, just haven't gotten the job done. So, why aren't I writing this article about a left-handed bat as a trade deadline priority? I can explain. But let's start by running through the lefty bats Toronto already has. Neither Andrés Giménez nor Daulton Varsho is on this team for his bat. They are Gold Glove winners, and the Blue Jays aren't looking to upgrade at second base or center field. On the contrary, they're hoping both players will soon return from the injured list and retake their spots in the starting lineup. Addison Barger has struggled against left-handed pitching (78 wRC+ in 39 PA), but he has been so good against righties (140 wRC+ in 205 PA). He's not going anywhere. Nathan Lukes hasn't been as productive as Barger, but he falls into a similar category of player. With a 119 wRC+ in 176 PA against righties, he has been a valuable contributor to the offense even though he's rarely allowed to face lefties (51 wRC+ in 18 PA). If/when the Blue Jays are at full strength, those are the four lefty batters on their roster. The Jays also have switch-hitters Anthony Santander and Tyler Heineman, and they won't be looking to replace Santander or Heineman either. Santander struggled before he hit the IL, but it's far too soon for the Jays to even think of giving up on the Silver Slugger winner they signed last offseason. Indeed, one of the best ways the Blue Jays can hope to upgrade their offense is if Tony Taters comes back from the IL and starts swinging like he did in 2024. As for Heineman, he has far exceeded expectations as the backup catcher. His job is safe. As I hope I've made clear, none of these are players the Blue Jays should move on from. But they do have a weakness. These six hitters have combined for a .198 batting average, .555 OPS, and 59 wRC+ against left-handed pitching in 2025. So, the Jays don't need better left-handed hitters. What they need are enough right-handed bats so that John Schneider can shield his left-handed hitters from left-handed pitching as often as possible. Myles Straw is a right-handed hitter with elite defensive skills in center field. Ernie Clement is another righty who can play anywhere in the infield. They have important platoon roles to play. Still, the Jays could use one more right-handed bat that Schneider can slot in against southpaw starters or sub in against lefty relievers. Ideally, such a player would be able to cover some outfield and some infield. In other words, ideally, such a player would be Davis Schneider. Schneider bats from the right side of the plate. He has been much better against lefties than righties throughout his career. He can play second base, third base, and left field. If he can be the right-handed bench bat the Blue Jays require, Ross Atkins would be free to focus on other areas of need ahead of the deadline. But that's a big if. Every Blue Jays fan wants Schneider to hit like Babe again. Yet, his disappointing performance in 2024 (79 wRC+ in 454 PA) is fresher in all of our minds. He continued to struggle over the first few weeks of 2025, with the Jays eventually sending him down to Triple-A Buffalo. Schneider has hit much better since he was recalled, with an .828 OPS and 136 wRC+ over the last six weeks. However, while he has gotten his wRC+ on the season up to 115, his xwOBA remains a deeply concerning .277. That's even worse than it was in 2024. He's also running a .324 BABIP since June 1, compared to a .278 career BABIP prior. The regression monster is hot on his tail. I would love nothing more than for Schneider to be the answer here, but I'm just not convinced he is. The only other option from the 40-man roster who could potentially fill the right-handed bench bat role is Orelvis Martinez. However, he's not getting the call anytime soon with the way he's struggling for the Bisons. Looking past the 40-man, Riley Tirotta is a righty who is absolutely mashing in Buffalo. The only problem? He is completely unproven at the big league level. It wouldn't be fair for the Blue Jays to call him up and expect him to be an upgrade over Schneider. Tirotta is a lottery ticket, not an insurance policy. So, it certainly seems like another right-handed bat will be on Ross Atkins's shopping list ahead of the trade deadline. As it becomes clearer which teams are buying and which teams are selling, we'll soon have a better idea of who the best available righty bats might be. View full article

While starting pitching prospects tend to steal the spotlight, there are plenty of relievers in the Blue Jays organization that deserve your attention too. Today, I'm going to highlight the best of those bullpen arms from June. For the sake of featuring prospects, I chose not to include any relievers with significant major league experience in this piece. However, I'd like to give a brief shout-out to Dillon Tate and Tommy Nance, both of whom were excellent for the Buffalo Bisons last month. Tate pitched to a 1.80 ERA with 11 strikeouts in 10 innings of work. Nance gave up a few more runs (3.37 ERA), but he also struck out 16 batters and walked only three. It's nice to know the Blue Jays have some experienced bullpen depth they can call upon should they need it. Now, onto the prospects! Honourable Mentions Bo Bonds, RHP (High-A Vancouver) June Stats: 1-0 (4 G), 4.1 IP, 2.08 ERA, 9 K, 2 BB Bonds is one of the more promising relief prospects in the system right now. He was off to a terrific start in June before a trip to the injured list cut his month short. In four appearances, he gave up just one run on four hits while striking out nine of the 19 batters he faced. Javen Coleman, LHP (Single-A Dunedin/High-A Vancouver) June Stats: 0-0 (6 G), 8.0 IP, 1.13 ERA, 11 K, 6 BB Coleman earned a promotion to Vancouver after pitching to a 1.50 ERA through his first five appearances in June. He then threw two scoreless, hitless innings in his High-A debut, striking out four and walking one. Although he signed with Toronto as an undrafted free agent just last summer, the 23-year-old is an arm that could quickly climb the minor league ladder. Aaron Munson, RHP (High-A Vancouver) June Stats: 2-0 (6 G), 12.1 IP, 2.92 ERA, 14 K, 3 BB Irv Carter just edged out his teammate Munson for the fifth spot on my ranking, but considering how similar their numbers were in June, I had to make Munson an honourable mention. The 23-year-old needed to work on bringing his walk rate down in 2025, and he has finally begun to do just that. After walking 12 batters over 19.1 innings in April and May, he only issued three free passes in June. Even better, he struck out the same number of hitters in June as he had in April and May combined. 5. Irv Carter, RHP (High-A Vancouver) June Stats: 0-0 (6 G), 13.1 IP, 2.70 ERA, 14 K, 3 BB Carter was once a top-30 prospect for the Jays, but he dropped off top prospect lists following an injury-marred 2023 season and a move to the bullpen in 2024. Yet, if his June performance is any indication, he might be turning a corner and becoming a name to follow once more. Like Munson, he posted an impressive 14:3 strikeout-to-walk ratio in the month, and after giving up seven home runs in April and May, he didn't let any balls leave the yard in June. 4. Eminen Flores, RHP (Single-A Dunedin) June Stats: 1-0 (6 G), 10.0 IP, 2.70 ERA, 16 K, 4 BB We've always known Flores had the potential to overpower opponents, but he's struggled in the past to rack up the strikeout numbers you'd hope for from a pitcher with such poor control. He increased his strikeout rate in May, but the walks were still higher than would be ideal. So, it was great to see him build upon that in June. He kept his K-rate up, striking out more than two-thirds of the batters he saw, while walking fewer than 10%. If he continues to improve like this, don't be surprised if he gets to call to Vancouver later this summer. 3. Luis Victorino, RHP (DSL Blue Jays Red) June Stats: 0-0 (7 G), 10.1 IP, 0.00 ERA, 13 K, 5 BB Is it bad form for me to admit I hadn't heard of Luis Victorino before I started writing today? Or is it the perfect way to demonstrate how impressive he was in June, going from being an unknown name to a featured player on this list? Victorino, 22, signed with the Blue Jays organization in May after he was released by the Astros. He's several years older than the average player in the Dominican Summer League, but his performance last month was undeniable. He only gave up six hits over 10.1 innings, collecting two saves in the process. While he walked five of the 40 batters he faced (12.5% BB%), he compensated by striking out 13. 2. Pat Gallagher, RHP (High-A Vancouver/Double-A New Hampshire) June Stats: 2-0 (8 G), 16.1 IP, 2.20 ERA, 21 K, 7 BB The Jays transitioned Gallagher to a bulk relief role this season. It's only been three months, but it's safe to say they made the right call. He has a 1.22 ERA over 22 games (44.1 IP), with 51 strikeouts to 17 walks in 2025. The 25-year-old continued to thrive in June, earning a promotion to Double-A New Hampshire at the end of the month. He took on the new challenge with aplomb, striking out five, walking none, and pitching to a 2.08 ERA in his first 4.1 innings at the higher level. 1. Chay Yeager, RHP (High-A Vancouver) June Stats: 2-0 (8 G), 12.2 IP, 0.00 ERA, 15 K, 4 BB I had to make a lot of difficult decisions while constructing this list, but deciding who to put at the top wasn't one of them. Yeager was the easy choice for Jays Centre's Minor League Reliever of the Month. He tossed 12.2 scoreless innings in June, collecting two wins and two saves. He struck out 15 (31.3% K%) and held opponents to a .140 batting average. Yeager had made tremendous strides in 2025, his second campaign with Vancouver. Last year, he struggled to a 5.50 ERA and 5.62 FIP. So far this season, he has a 1.71 ERA and 2.85 FIP. The righty has seemingly traded groundballs for strikeouts, and it's paying off handsomely. His K-rate has almost doubled, increasing from 17.0% in 2024 to 33.3% in 2025, and he's only two strikeouts away from surpassing last year's total – and it's only the beginning of July. Chay Yeager may not be a well-known name in the system quite yet, but he's doing everything he can to change that. View full article

If there's anyone who understands what Bowden Francis is going through, it's Alek Manoah. Francis was sensational for Toronto over the final two months of the 2024 season, pitching to a 1.53 ERA in nine starts. He struck out 56 and walked only seven, while holding opponents to a .121 batting average. The city quickly embraced him; not just anyone gets chosen to star in Adidas ads on Sportsnet. The team did too. Despite a poor spring, Francis beat out Yariel Rodríguez for the final spot in the 2025 Opening Day rotation. However, things quickly went downhill from there. Francis was solid over his first five starts in 2025, but as I pointed out, the underlying numbers suggested serious cause for concern. Lo and behold, he gave up five homers in three innings during his sixth start of the year. By mid-June, his ERA had ballooned to 6.05, while his 5.91 expected ERA was no better. His home run rate was the worst in the league. When the Blue Jays placed him on the injured list two weeks ago with a shoulder impingement, it wasn't a tough blow – it was a relief. Manoah could surely relate. He was a much higher draft pick and a higher-ranked prospect than Francis ever was. He also had a more convincing breakout. Yet, that only made his fall from grace all the more disappointing. Following a rock-solid rookie season in 2021 (3.22 ERA in 20 starts), Manoah took a huge step forward in his sophomore campaign, earning an All-Star nod and a top-three Cy Young finish. His 2.24 ERA ranked third in the AL. Then 2023 came along, and Manoah fell apart. He gave up five earned runs on nine hits in his Opening Day start, failing to escape the fourth. It was more of the same over the next two months, and the Blue Jays eventually had no choice but to option him down to the minor leagues. He continued to struggle upon his return, finishing the season with a 5.87 ERA and 6.12 xERA in 19 starts. A shoulder injury held Manoah back early in 2024. When he made his season debut in May, he looked a little better but still not like the dominant ace he had been in 2022. After just five starts, he was back on the IL, this time with a torn UCL. He'd be out for 12 months at the very least. Those 12 months have now passed, and Manoah is working toward his comeback. While he has yet to start a rehab assignment, he hit 95 mph in a live bullpen session last week. He's set to throw another bullpen today. If things continue to go well, an early August return seems possible. As for Francis, his timeline is less clear. With how poorly he was pitching this year, one might have thought his IL stint was of the phantom variety, allowing him some time to clear his head and the Blue Jays to temporarily take him off the active roster. Yet, he received a cortisone shot shortly after his IL placement, and it's now been more than two weeks since he last pitched. According to Sportnet's Arden Zwelling, he started "playing flat-ground catch from 60-90 feet" on Friday. Presumably, the next step is a live bullpen or two, and after that, he'll have been gone long enough that he'd probably need at least one rehab start. There's no reason to think he won't be back at some point in July or August, but right now, that's really all we can say. Given all the similarities between Manoah and Francis, and the fact that the Blue Jays could certainly use some healthy starting pitching depth, I can't help but pit the two of them against each other. I can't help but wonder: Which pitcher has a better chance to make a significant impact for Toronto over the final three months of the 2025 season? Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, Chris Bassitt, Max Scherzer, and Eric Lauer make up a perfectly solid five-man rotation for the Blue Jays. However, Lauer remains a question mark – it's been less than a year since he was struggling in the KBO – and Scherzer is an injury risk. (After missing close to three months with a thumb injury, he felt more fatigue in his thumb last night in his second start back from the IL.) Toronto will almost surely need more than just those five to get through 78 more regular season games. Even if those five remain healthy and effective, the Jays will need to find roles for Manoah and Francis once they're ready to return, unless they're planning to stash them both in Triple A – a course of action that seems unlikely. So, I ask again, which of Francis and Manoah has a better chance to make an impact over the final months of 2025? Manoah was the first-round pick, the top-100 prospect, the All-Star, and the Cy Young finalist. Over 51 starts from 2021-22, he pitched to a 2.60 ERA and 3.51 FIP. Yet, he's now trying to return from major elbow surgery, and it's been two and a half years since he was last a truly great starting pitcher. He had the higher peak, but that peak is getting farther and farther away. Francis never had a pedigree like Manoah's, but he was every bit as effective last August and September as Manoah was in his Cy Young finalist campaign. While Francis didn't maintain his success for nearly as long as Manoah, he was an effective big league pitcher far more recently. What's more, he's not recovering from major surgery. He might not have quite as high a ceiling, but he has fewer obstacles in his way. There's a world in which Francis and Manoah both struggle upon their respective returns. There's a world in which they both suffer setbacks (knock on wood) and neither makes his way back to a big league mound at all in 2025. On the flip side, there's a world in which they both get healthy and rediscover what made them each so effective in their breakout seasons. But we're Blue Jays fans. We've learned to temper our expectations. So, instead of dreaming that both Manoah and Francis can contribute meaningful innings down the stretch in 2025, I'm wondering which of the two is the safer bet to succeed. The thing is, I really, truly can't come up with an answer. So please, help me make up my mind by casting a vote in the poll below. Which injured Blue Jays starting pitcher do you have more faith in right now: Bowden Francis or Alek Manoah? View full article

Once, the game's preeminent workhorse, Max Scherzer has developed an injury-prone reputation late in his career. The 40-year-old has spent time on the injured list in each of the past five seasons. He has been hamstrung by shoulder injuries and shouldered by hamstring injuries. Most recently, he has been nursing inflammation in his thumb, an issue that forced him out of his Blue Jays debut after just three innings and has kept him on the IL ever since. Well, until today. Toronto will reinstate the future Hall of Famer from the 60-day IL before tonight's game against the Guardians. Scherzer is finally back with a healthy thumb. (Or is he thumb with a healthy back? No, I had it right the first time.) I don't need to tell you how dominant Scherzer was at the height of his powers. The man has made eight All-Star teams, won three Cy Young Awards, and pitched a pair of no-hitters. As recently as 2021, he was a serious Cy Young contender. While three separate IL stints limited him to nine starts last year, he was still effective in those outings, pitching to a 3.95 ERA and 3.86 xERA in 43.1 innings. He wasn't striking batters out like he used to (he averaged slightly less than one strikeout per inning), but his 4:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio was impressive, and his 7.9% barrel rate was his best in five years. He did a particularly excellent job generating swings outside of the strike zone, helping him induce pop-ups and limit hard contact. In short, the Blue Jays had no reason not to think they were getting a capable back-end starter when they signed him to a one-year, $15.5 million deal over the offseason – presuming he could stay on the field. Of course, he wasn't able to contribute much over the first three months of the season. Indeed, as Jays Centre's Jesse Burrill pointed out earlier today, this team hasn't gotten what it was hoping for from any of its big offseason additions, namely Scherzer, Anthony Santander, Andrés Giménez, and Jeff Hoffman. But there is still time to turn things around. The Blue Jays have not had a proper five-man rotation since Scherzer hit the IL. In addition to Chris Bassitt, José Berríos, Kevin Gausman, and Bowden Francis, eight pitchers have started a game for Toronto. First it was Scherzer. Then it was Easton Lucas, who looked like he might just be the answer after his first two scoreless starts, until he imploded in outings three and four. Since then, the Jays have tried openers and bullpen games. They've tried José Ureña and Spencer Turnbull. One of their depth arms, Eric Lauer, has actually pitched quite well, but just as Lauer started to establish himself as a real option for the rotation, Francis landed on the injured list. So, even if Lauer continues to exceed expectations, the Blue Jays still need Scherzer to stay healthy if they're finally going to have a complete five-man rotation again. Considering their lack of rotation depth, the Jays will have to be happy with whatever kind of production Scherzer can offer. Still, it's impossible not to dream about him turning back the clock and gifting Toronto a star-caliber performance. In his second and final rehab start last week, he struck out eight of the 17 batters he faced, generating 11 whiffs on 36 swings. Sure, he was facing Triple-A competition, but five of the hitters in the Worcester Red Sox lineup were recent major leaguers: a rehabbing Wilyer Abreu, as well as Nick Sogard, Vaughn Grissom, Trayce Thompson, and Blake Sabol. What's more, Scherzer's average fastball velocity was up to 92.5 mph, compared to 91.9 mph in his lone Blue Jays start in March. He also topped 94 mph four times last week. He wasn't able to hit 94 mph at all in March, and in 2024, he only topped 94 mph 17 times all season. In Scherzer's start on March 29, he clearly didn't have his best stuff. He gave up two runs in three innings while striking out only one. However, his control was on point. According to Location+ (defined by FanGraphs as "a count- and pitch type-adjusted judge of a pitcher’s ability to put pitches in the right place"), Scherzer's first start for the Blue Jays was his best since at least 2020 – that's as far back as the numbers go. PitchingBot Command, a similar metric, grades Scherzer's outing on March 29 as his third-best since 2020, and the only two that have it beat were absolute gems. He might have been throwing heat or missing bats, but he was locating his pitches with remarkable precision. Take those numbers with an ocean's worth of salt. A single 45-pitch start is a tiny sample. Having said that, if Scherzer can combine that elite command with the slightly better stuff he showed in his last rehab game, perhaps he can be more than just a back-end starter. I know it's not a likely outcome, but if there's any player who can rediscover greatness in his forties, Scherzer is the one to do it. So, I'm preparing to watch his start tonight with a glass-half-full mentality. I'm genuinely hopeful that Scherzer can bring some much-needed stability to the back of Toronto's rotation, and I'm not willing to give up on the possibility that he could be more than a back-end arm. Call me naive, call me a hopeless dreamer, call me anything you want, but it's a lot more fun to be an optimist. We can go back to worrying about Scherzer's health if another issue arises, but until then, I'm going to enjoy watching an all-time great pitcher suit up for the Jays. View full article

It wasn’t until I was reading our most recent Blue Jays Week in Review that I realized how interested I was in the fact that the Jays used four different center fielders in a game last week. On Tuesday, June 17, the Blue Jays welcomed the Diamondbacks to Toronto. When Chris Bassitt threw the first pitch of the evening, a sinker to Corbin Carroll, Jonatan Clase was standing out in center field. Yet, in the bottom of the fourth, D-backs starter Brandon Pfaadt hit Clase in the knee with a pitch, and the young outfielder dropped to the ground in pain. He would eventually take his place on first base, but the following inning, it was Myles Straw, not Clase, jogging out to center field. Straw’s stint in center that day would prove to be even shorter than Clase’s, and before the fifth inning was up, John Schenider was forced to make another defensive change. While running down a fly ball from his former teammate Josh Naylor, Straw missed the catch and ran right into the wall, injuring his ankle. So, it was then Alan Roden’s turn to put on a glove and head out to play what was starting to seem like a cursed position. (Thankfully, neither Clase nor Straw landed on the injured list. If there ever was a curse, it was brief and benign.) Roden managed to last two whole innings, and when he exited, it was only because Scheider wanted to replace him with a right-handed pinch-hitter. However, that pinch-hitter, Davis Schneider, has never played center field in his career, so when the Jays returned to the field, Schneider took over in left and Will Robertson slid from left field to center, becoming the fourth center fielder of the day. None of them just stood there either. All four of Toronto’s center fielders last Tuesday had to make at least one play. Here’s a little compilation of Clase, Straw, Roden, and Robertson all manning the position: There’s no doubt this was unusual. Indeed, Blake Murphy of Sportsnet pointed out that this was the first time in franchise history the Blue Jays had used four different center fielders in one game. But I wanted to know more. Armed with a thirst for knowledge and a subscription to Stathead baseball, I started digging. I found that no other team has used four center fielders in a game this season, but the Royals used four different right fielders and four different left fielders in the same game on May 9. In addition, the Padres used four different hitters in the DH spot on April 27. No team has used more than three different players in one game at any of the four infield spots, and we have yet to see a team use more than two catchers in a single contest. Interestingly, while four different players at one position in one game is quite rare, it is surprisingly common for a team to use three separate players to field the same position. Between every position combined, it has already happened 148 times in 2025. The Jays are responsible for five of those cases: once at first base (Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Ernie Clement, and Anthony Santander on May 25), once at second base (Clement, Straw, and Michael Stefanic on May 25), once at shortstop (Bo Bichette, Clement, and Stefanic on May 25), and twice in center field (Nathan Lukes, George Springer, and Straw on March 31; Lukes, Roden, and Straw on April 19). Looking beyond just this season, the idea of using four center fielders in a game isn’t quite as unusual. It’s happened on 15 separate occasions in the last 25 years. However, only once in recorded history has a team used more than four center fielders in one contest: the 2000 Detroit Tigers, who used five different players in center field during the penultimate game of their season on September 30. Meanwhile, the record for the most different players at any one position in one game is six. The 1972 Oakland Athletics used six second basemen on September 19, the 1965 Kansas City Athletics used six right fielders on September 8, and, much more recently, the 2016 Cubs used six left fielders on June 28. The record at every other position except for catcher is five, while the highest number for backstops is four. As for the Blue Jays, this isn’t the first time they’ve used four different players at one position in one game, but you have to go all the way back to the '80s to find another. On September 25, 1985, the Blue Jays used four separate first basemen: Cecil Fielder, Rick Leach, Al Oliver, and Willie Upshaw. One season earlier, on May 15, 1984, the Jays used four different third basemen: George Bell, Kelly Gruber, Garth Iorg, and Rance Mulliniks. A few years before that, on August 28, 1980, they played a game in which four players manned left field: Bob Bailor, Joe Cannon, Garth Iorg, and Dave Stieb. (That was the only non-pitching defensive appearance of Stieb’s career.) None of those games takes the cake, however. On September 3, 1979, the Blue Jays used five different players in the DH spot: Joe Cannon, Rico Carty, Craig Kusick, Tony Solaita, and, once again, Dave Stieb. Of course, DH isn’t a defensive position. What’s more, two of those “designated hitters” were really just pinch-runners – Stieb ran for Solaita and Cannon ran for Carty – and neither even took an at-bat. Nonetheless, they’re listed as having played DH in the box score. So, that Monday afternoon contest from the 1970s still stands as the only game in Blue Jays franchise history in which five different players shared one position. After learning all that, I can’t help but wish that John Schneider had made one more defensive substitution last Tuesday. He couldn’t have moved George Springer into the field without sacrificing his DH, but what if he’d given Ernie Clement a chance to add center field to his defensive resume? I know, I know, big league managers don’t consider the potential for a good fun fact when they make their decisions, but a trivia-loving baseball writer can dream! Stats updated prior to games on June 23. View full article

When the Blue Jays signed a 31-year-old George Springer to a six-year contract before the 2021 season, they knew he wouldn't be their starting center fielder all six years. Center field had been his primary position with the Astros from 2017-20. While he was never a Gold Glove winner (or even a finalist), he played well enough to make all three All-Star Games in that span and earn MVP votes in three of those four years. So, the Jays anticipated he could play a solid center field for at least a couple more years before moving down the defensive spectrum. Then, he would hopefully become a plus defensive corner outfielder. After all, he was a Gold Glove finalist in the one full season he spent in right field in 2016, and, in theory, a fielder who can hold his own in center should be comfortably above average in a corner spot. Things went more or less according to plan over the first four seasons of Springer's contract, at least as far as his glove was concerned. When healthy, he played a perfectly acceptable center field in 2021 and '22. Then, with Springer entering his age-33 campaign, Toronto went out and added center fielders Kevin Kiermaier and Daulton Varsho, thereby relieving Springer of his center field duties and forming the best defensive outfield in the game. Springer wasn't the plus right fielder the Jays hoped he could be, but he was more than capable of playing the position and playing it almost every day. Indeed, his durability was more impressive than anything else; he played over 1,000 outfield innings in both 2023 and '24, something he had not done since his age-28 season in 2018. With Springer holding down the fort in right field as a complement to Varsho's and Kiermaier's elite performances, the Blue Jays' outfielders led the majors in Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), Outs Above Average (OAA), and Fielding Run Value (FRV) from 2023-24. Then came 2025. I don't mean to be too harsh on Springer. He's closer to 36 than 35; most players his age are no longer strong defenders. He's also enjoying a terrific season at the plate, and ultimately, if the Blue Jays have to put up with his defense every now and then to keep his bat in the lineup, so be it. Still, there's no ignoring how much of a liability he has been in the field. As I wrote last week, Springer ranks among the AL's top outfielders in numerous offensive categories. Yet, according to the numbers at FanGraphs, his negative defensive value (Def) cancels out his positive offensive contributions (Off). That's partly because he often plays DH, which comes with a harsh positional adjustment. The corner outfield spots have a negative adjustment as well. However, the biggest problem is that he ranks among the worst outfielders in the league in almost every defensive metric. None of this means he's been a bad player overall; it just means he's roughly average. While his power, plate discipline, and baserunning have all been excellent, his jumps, his range, and his arm have been equally impactful – only in the opposite direction. I know that might seem hard to believe. Springer has hit 15 doubles and 10 home runs. He's driven in 32. His walk rate is a career-high 12.9%, and his OPS sits at .800. Just a handful of qualified AL outfielders have a higher OPS or wRC+. On top of that, Springer is 7-for-7 in stolen base attempts. What's more, he has only made one error all season. How could he possibly have cost the Blue Jays more with his glove than he's supplied with his bat? I'm here to explain. Springer grades out as a defensive liability according to several metrics, including DRS (from Sports Info Solutions) and DRP (from Baseball Prospectus). However, I'm going to focus on Baseball Savant's FRV, because it's the most transparent and because it's the defensive metric that feeds into FanGraphs WAR. According to FRV, an average player would have saved the Blue Jays seven more runs than Springer this season. Only one outfielder, Nick Castellanos (-9), has cost his team more, and he has played about twice as many innings. For outfielders, FRV is the combination of OAA (converted to runs above average) and arm value. Springer ranks toward the bottom of the pack in both metrics this year, with -6 OAA and -2 throwing runs. Let's start with OAA. Taking into account the distance and direction the outfielder has to travel and how long the ball hangs in the air, Statcast calculates the catch probability of every ball that comes an outfielder's way. This number is used to credit or debit outfielders for the plays they do or do not make. For instance, if a ball has a 95% catch probability, an outfielder would earn 0.05 OAA for making the catch, and he would lose 0.95 OAA for not making the catch. In the same way, if a ball has a 5% catch probability, an outfielder would earn 0.95 OAA for making the catch, or he would lose 0.05 OAA for not making the catch. If all those percentages and decimals are too confusing, think of it like this: An outfielder will be heavily penalized for missing a can of corn and highly rewarded for making a highlight-reel play. Conversely, the penalty for missing a difficult play is low, as is the reward for making an easy catch. Springer has a 66.7% success rate (6-for-9) on plays with a catch probability between 91% and 95% (Statcast calls these "one-star opportunities"). That's not good. He is one of just six players to have missed three or more one-star catches this season, and the other five have all had more opportunities. No outfielder (min. five opportunities) has a worse one-star success rate. Now, as promised, let's get to the visuals. Here are the three one-star catch opportunities that Springer has failed to convert this year: One could make excuses for Springer on any of those plays, some more defensible than others. Regardless, simply considering (a) how long each of those balls stays in the air and (b) the distance he has to run to track each one down, it's not hard to understand why Statcast sees them all as high-probability catches. You could say the first was just a miscommunication, the second just a misread, and the third just a misplaced glove. You also could point out that all three of those plays came in the first two weeks of the season; perhaps he was just rusty. Yet, even if you're willing to overlook his mistakes, the fact of the matter is that if Springer got better jumps and covered more ground, he would have made all three of those plays. And it gets worse. The Statcast catch probability leaderboard doesn't even include plays with a catch probability above 95%, because we take it for granted that capable outfielders will make those plays (well, at least 96% of the time). So far in 2025, Springer has flubbed not one but two plays with an estimated catch probability of 99%. Here they are: Again, you could make excuses for Springer in both instances, and I'm not trying to say those excuses would be unfounded. The first clip shows another three-way miscommunication. The second shows him losing a ball in the sun. So, it might be a tad harsh that he's accumulated close to -5 OAA on the five misplays I've shown you. Yet, this brings us to another part of the problem: Springer hasn't made any great catches to atone for the ones he's missed. Even the best defenders make mistakes now and then. No one is immune to a lapse in judgment – or the blinding rays of the sun. However, good defenders can make up for their misplays. In the same way that a hitter can make fans forget an embarrassing pickoff with a big home run in his next at-bat, a defender can erase the negative value of a dropped one-star catch by converting a five-star opportunity. Springer hasn't done that. He has missed both of his five-star opportunities (0-25% catch probability) and both of his four-star opportunities (26-50%). He has also missed a pair of three-star opportunities (51-75%) and a two-star chance (76-90% catch probability). Here's what all of those missed catches look like, in descending order of difficulty: Meanwhile, these are Springer's most impressive catches of the year, according to Statcast: Both of those were great catches, and I could watch them on loop. Yet, the first one, which took Springer into the tarp at Fenway, had a catch probability of 55%. The second, which saw him dive and tumble to secure the ball, had a catch probability of 75%. In other words, neither play was quite as difficult as Springer made it look. A more skilled outfielder defender might have made both plays without getting his uniform so dirty. The other half of the FRV equation is what happens on balls that drop for hits. The methodology here is a little less straightforward, but in essence, Statcast uses inputs such as the runner's speed, the runner's position on the bases, and the outfielder's distance from both the ball and bases to calculate "an estimated success probability" for every opportunity a runner has to take an extra base on a batted ball. To calculate a fielder's "arm value," his actual success rate is compared to the estimated success rate on all of his opportunities. An outfielder whose actual success rate is higher than his estimated success rate will have a positive arm value, and vice versa. While Baseball Savant calls this metric "arm value," it's about more than just throwing the baseball. An outfielder's effort to prevent runners from taking extra bases starts the moment he takes his first step. Indeed, watch some of Springer's most costly plays according to the arm value leaderboard, and you'll see that the problem is often his slow instincts, inefficient routes, and poor positioning, rather than his arm strength: Those four plays alone cost Springer close to a full run of arm value, and he has yet to make any truly great throws to nab a baserunner and earn back that run. All told, he has a -2 arm value on the season. Only one outfielder, Mickey Moniak of the Rockies, is at -3. So, this is how George Springer's poor defense is cancelling out the value of his resurgent performance at the plate. You can make excuses for almost every individual misplay, but those excuses become less and less convincing with each subsequent fumble. He has been seeing more time at DH lately, but eventually, once Anthony Santander returns from the IL, he's going to have to play more outfield. Hopefully, he'll make fewer mistakes – and at least one great catch and one great throw. If his defense can just be passable instead of terrible, he can let his bat do the rest of the talking. Defensive stats updated prior to games on June 22. View full article