Leo Morgenstern

Let me start with a warning: If you came here looking for close analysis, well, that’s not what you’re going to get. It’s not necessary. Over the past month-plus, Addison Barger has been one of the most entertaining players, not just on the Blue Jays but across the major leagues. I want to celebrate that, and I hope you’ll join me. The Blue Jays have been scorching lately. Since a walk-off loss at the hands of the Angels on May 7, the Jays have gone 24-14 over the past six weeks. That’s a 102-win pace. They’re only half a game back of the Rays and Astros for the best record in the AL in that time. It hasn’t been all sunshine and rainbows. They lost two series to Tampa Bay, including a particularly devastating sweep. Three weeks later, it was Philadelphia’s turn to sweep Toronto, outscoring the Jays 22-6. Just yesterday, the D-backs built a 9-1 lead over the first six innings, and a late rally wasn’t nearly enough for the Jays to get back in the game. Yet, the highs have far outweighed the lows. The Jays swept the Mariners, Padres, Athletics, and Cardinals. They also won series against the Rangers, Phillies, Twins, and Diamondbacks. According to FanGraphs, their chances of making the playoffs have increased from a season-low 22.6%, after that tough loss to the Angels, to just over 60%. I’ve already written about two of the most important contributors during this stretch: Alejandro Kirk and Ernie Clement. Those two rank first and second on the team in FanGraphs WAR since May 8. However, it’s the player that ranks third whose greatness has been the most obvious: Barger is making the most of his superhuman strength to thrill fans on both sides of the ball. Correlation doesn’t equal causation, but it’s no coincidence that Toronto’s offense started to heat up at the same time Barger began to break out. What is a coincidence (but a fun one!) is that Barger’s breakout also perfectly coincided with Owen Hill’s article about the young hitter showing signs of improvement. The Angels walked off the Blue Jays on May 7. Owen’s article came out on May 8. Prior to its publication, Barger was 6-for-37 (.162) with two walks, three doubles, and zero home runs. His 33 wRC+ ranked last on the team. Since then, he is batting .306 with eight home runs and 23 RBI. Among Blue Jays batters, his .945 OPS is second only to Tyler Heineman’s .991, while his 163 wRC+ trails only Heineman’s (181) and Kirk’s (164). His 21 extra-base hits are easily the most on the team (Bo Bichette ranks second with 17). He has also been the kind of slugger who's just plain fun to watch! I'm not sure there's anyone on this club I'd rather see crush a walk-off home run. It's the beautiful swing. It's how high and how far the baseball travels. It's the intensity on Barger's face as he tosses his bat, and how that intensity fades to joy as his teammates swarm him at home plate. It's everything, really. Barger has made his mark in the field as well. His ability to play a capable right field and third base has made a huge difference for manager John Schneider. With the injuries to Daulton Varsho, Anthony Santander, and Nathan Lukes, Toronto’s outfield depth has been stretched thin. Meanwhile, the Jays entered the season without a true starting third baseman, and Barger’s glove at third has helped the team survive Will Wagner’s disappointing performance and allowed Ernie Clement to play the utility role he’s best suited for. Barger is one of just seven MLB players to have appeared in at least 15 games at third base and in the outfield this season, and one of only two with an OPS above .800. His range has been better than expected, but of course, the star of the show is his arm. The same strength that has him ranked among the top 10 qualified AL hitters in everything from bat speed to hard-hit rate to slugging percentage, isolated power, and extra-base hits (since May 8) also helps him in the field. Did you see that throw in the second clip I linked above? Don’t worry, here it is again: Byron Buxton is one of the fastest runners in the game. Barger is about as far over to the left as a fair groundball can take him. Somehow, he managed to get up from lying flat on the ground to unleash a throw that beat Buxton to the bag by a fraction of a second. Statcast requires a large enough sample of competitive throws to calculate average arm strength, so Barger hasn’t qualified for the leaderboard at third base in either of the past two years. However, he has made enough throws in 2024 and ‘25 combined to qualify for the all-time (since 2020) leaderboard at both third base and right field. Since Stacast began tracking this data, Barger’s 92.6 mph average arm strength at third base ranks fifth out of 169 qualified third basemen. Meanwhile, his 97.1 mph average arm strength from the outfield ranks fourth out of 214 right fielders and sixth among all 419 qualified outfielders. You might not guess it from his six-foot frame, but the man can slug and the man can throw. The Blue Jays are playing some of their best baseball since the 2022 stretch run, and Barger has been as big a part of it as anyone. We knew he was strong as a prospect, but right now, he's using that strength to make an impact beyond what any of us could have hoped for. View full article

I didn't mention this in the article, but I'd like to see Swanson land in Philadelphia. The Phillies have room in their bullpen, and they like a good reclamation project. And it would be interesting to watch them trying to fix Romano and Swanson.

Erik Swanson enjoyed his breakout campaign in 2022. Following three uneven and injury-plagued years with the Mariners, he made 57 appearances in the 2022 season, pitching to a 1.68 ERA, a 2.30 xERA, and an AL-leading 1.85 FIP. After striking out roughly 23% of his opponents from 2019-21, the 6-foot-3 righty upped his strikeout rate to 34%. Even better, he didn't have to sacrifice control to procure those extra punchouts. No AL pitcher (min. 25 IP) had both a higher strikeout rate and a lower walk rate. On top of that, Swanson gave up just one hit-by-pitch, one wild pitch, and three home runs all year. He never had so much as a 10-game stretch at any point in the season where his FIP was above league average. He never issued more than one non-intentional walk in an outing. Only once did he give up more than two hits in a game, and only twice did he give up more than one earned run. Simply put, Swanson was wholly, completely, and undeniably in control, from his first scoreless outing in April to his last in October. As effective as he was, Seattle mostly used him in lower-leverage spots, so he only racked up three wins, three saves, and 14 holds. Indeed, the Mariners never seemed to buy all the way in on Swanson as a back-of-the-bullpen stud. He began to see more high-leverage opportunities as the year went on, but after a few rough outings in September, he quickly lost whatever trust he had gained. In his first eight games in September, he gave up six earned runs in just under six innings of work. His ERA climbed from an MLB-leading 0.84 to 1.85. Yet, he also struck out nine of 26 batters while walking only two, giving him a 3.29 FIP, 2.82 xFIP, and 2.39 SIERA in that span. His opponents produced a .400 wOBA but just a .267 xwOBA; only one AL reliever faced more batters in that time and had a bigger mismatch between those two stats. What's more, Swanson finished the regular season on a high note, tossing five scoreless frames over his final four appearances, giving up two hits and a walk while striking out seven. Even so, the Mariners were strangely hesitant to use him in the playoffs. He didn't pitch at all in the Wild Card Series against the Blue Jays, and he didn't enter in the ALDS until the 13th inning of an 18-inning marathon in Game 3. That was partially because the Mariners had a bullpen loaded with talented arms. Still, it seemed like Swanson had fallen out of favor, at least a little bit, in the organization. Seattle's loss was Toronto's gain. Many Jays fans heavily criticized the Teoscar Hernández trade at the time, and I'm not here to relitigate. I'm not here to stir up controversy. But it's not controversial to say Swanson was terrific for the Blue Jays in 2023. In 66.2 innings, he pitched to a 2.97 ERA, a 3.04 xERA, and a 3.51 FIP. Those numbers don't look quite as impressive as his stats from the year before, but keep in mind that he pitched 13 more innings in a higher-leverage role at a much less pitcher-friendly home stadium. Additionally, the league-average ERA was about one-third of a run higher (3.97 in 2022, 4.33 in 2023). That's not to say everything was perfect – his strikeout rate fell to 28.6% and his walk rate rose substantially to 8.0% – but Swanson was nonetheless an excellent back-end arm. He earned a career-high four wins, four saves, and 29 holds (third in AL), and his 3.30 Win Probability Added placed him among the top 10 pitchers in the game. All told, from 2022-23, Swanson threw just over 120 innings with a 2.39 ERA. Only six relievers pitched to a lower ERA in at least as many innings. Only five had a higher strikeout minus walk rate (K-BB%). None had both more strikeouts and fewer walks. We're talking about elite numbers here. By the time the 2024 season rolled around, Swanson was already 30 years old, and he didn't have a long track record of success. Regardless, the Blue Jays had good reason to believe they had one of the league's better set-up men at their disposal. What followed was a highly disappointing performance. Forearm tightness kept Swanson on the IL for the first three weeks of the season, and while the injury didn't prove to be serious, the righty wasn't himself upon his return. After he posted a 7.27 ERA and, even more concerning, just a 17.5% strikeout rate through his first 11 games, the Blue Jays optioned him to Triple A. His struggles continued in the minors, where he gave up 24 runs (19 earned) over 17 games. His strikeout rate barely improved, and he walked almost batters as he struck out. Nevertheless, the Jays called him back up after the All-Star break, largely due to a lack of other options. To his credit, Swanson was much more effective in the second half (2.55 ERA), although his peripherals suggested lingering problems. He pushed his strikeout rate back up to a healthy 27.6%, but his walk rate continued to climb. He finished the season with an ERA, xERA, and FIP all over 5.00, and that doesn't even take into account his disastrous performance at Triple A. Then, as if he weren't enough of a wild card already, Swanson suffered another arm injury that would keep him out for Opening Day 2025: a median nerve entrapment in his right arm. The Blue Jays were left to wonder what kind of pitcher they would get upon his return. Would he rediscover his dominant set-up man form from 2022-23, or would he continue to struggle like he had in 2024? As it turns out, the sad answer was that 2024 was just the tip of the iceberg. Swanson allowed eight runs (six earned) over 5.1 innings during his minor league rehab assignment in May. Upon his return to the majors in June, he gave up runs in four of his six outings, striking out just three of 30 batters while walking five and hitting one. A grand slam to Nick Castellanos over the weekend would turn out to be his last pitch (or, you know, his swan song) with the Jays. The front office had seen enough, and they designated the once highly effective reliever for assignment on Tuesday. His future is now up in the air. Just a few weeks ago, I was asking if any Jays Centre writers wanted to cover how Swanson's return could energize the Blue Jays' bullpen. Today, I'm writing about the team's decision to remove him from the roster. A fall from grace of this magnitude raises two equally difficult questions: What happened to Erik Swanson, and what's next? Unfortunately, there's no easy answer as to why Swanson has had so much trouble over the last two years. Is it injury-related? Perhaps. He has spent time on the IL in every season since 2020. Yet, if the Blue Jays' medical team had found any evidence of an injury, then surely they wouldn't have DFA'd him. The same goes for last year. If the Jays had reason to believe he hadn't fully recovered from the forearm tightness that held him back in March and April, they would have placed him on the IL instead of sending him down to Triple A. His velocity is down this year, which could be an indication of a lingering injury issue, but there was nothing unusual about his velo in 2024. In other words, that might be a piece of the puzzle, but it doesn't solve the whole thing. Could it be a pitch mix problem? Sure. Swanson has thrown the same three pitches for years – a splitter, a four-seam fastball, and a slider – but his usage patterns haven't been consistent. In his first year in Toronto, his splitter was his primary pitch against righties and lefties alike, but in 2024 and '25, his four-seam has taken on that job. Yet, his pitch mix over the past two years is actually quite similar to his pitch mix in 2022 with the Mariners, when he was at his best. So, the issue isn't as simple as him throwing too many fastballs and not enough splitters – especially since his fastball has been his most effective pitch the past two years. To that point, the drop-off in his splitter's effectiveness has been Swanson's biggest problem. From 2022-23, Swanson's splitter was not only his best pitch but arguably the most valuable splitter in the league. According to Baseball Savant, the split-finger had a context-neutral run value of +2.7 runs per 100 pitches. No other pitcher (min. 100 splitters) came particularly close. In 2024-25, Swanson's opponents have laughed at his splitter for a .404 wOBA (compared to a .201 wOBA from 2022-23). The pitch has a -2.7 RV/100. In other words, it has been just as bad as it once was good. When he has tried to use his splitter to challenge hitters over the plate, they have crushed it like never before. Unfortunately, that only means he's throwing fewer splitters in the strike zone, hence his soaring walk rate. So, what comes next for Swanson? There's a good chance he'll be claimed on waivers. He is only owed about $1.7 million for the remainder of the season, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a team take a chance on him at that price. That said, it's more than possible no one puts in a claim. In that case, Swanson would have the option to elect free agency and look for a club willing to take him on at a cheaper price. Considering his upside, it shouldn't take him long to find a new home, but it's anyone's guess what happens after that. Will a new team be able to help Swanson return to form, or at least return to being an effective major league reliever? Or is the stuff that made him so dominant in 2022 and '23 gone forever? We'll have to wait and see. 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You've probably heard that Blue Jays' hitters are the game's best at putting the bat on the ball. (You might have even heard it from me.) Their 17.9% strikeout rate and 21.4% whiff rate are both the lowest in the majors. When the Blue Jays swing, they rarely miss. The same can't be said of their opponents, however. Last year, Blue Jays pitchers ranked second-to-last in the majors in whiff rate. Their opponents swung and missed just 23.7% of the time (per Baseball Savant). This year, that rate has climbed up to 26.7%, bringing the Blue Jays from second worst to fourth best. A three-percentage-point increase represents a massive year-to-year improvement in whiff rate. No other team's pitching staff has improved by close to as much: Team 2024 2025 Increase Blue Jays 23.7% 26.8% 3.1 Astros 27.4% 29.1% 1.7 Red Sox 23.7% 24.9% 1.2 Yankees 27.0% 28.2% 1.2 Rockies 21.9% 23.0% 1.1 D-backs 24.0% 25.1% 1.1 Giants 25.5% 26.5% 1.0 Guardians 25.5% 26.0% 0.5 Phillies 25.2% 25.6% 0.4 How are the Blue Jays' pitchers earning all these extra whiffs? Their opponents' swing rate has only increased slightly, rising from 47.7% to 48.0%. However, those swings have been more likely to come on pitches outside the strike zone. Toronto's pitchers have induced chases on 29.2% of out-of-zone pitches this year. That's a 1.1-percentage-point increase from last year, which is the largest year-to-year increase of any team. Even better, those chases have resulted in a bounty of whiffs. Blue Jays pitchers have increased their whiff rate on swings outside the zone more than any other team, going from third worst (41.1%) to top 10 (46.4%). As you might imagine, this has led to much better results for Toronto's pitching staff. Their 24.0% strikeout rate is the fifth-best in the league. So is their 15.9% K-BB%. Last year, they ranked among the bottom third of teams in both metrics. None of this is to say the Blue Jays have suddenly become a pitching powerhouse. Their arms have a collective 4.11 ERA, slightly worse than league average, and that's in spite of the phenomenal defense they pitch in front of. The root of the problem is what happens when Toronto's opponents manage to put the ball in play. Blue Jays pitchers have allowed a .373 wOBA on balls in play, which puts them among the bottom 10 teams in the league. Their .396 xwOBA on balls in play is even worse, ranking third-worst in baseball and dead last in the American League. This was an issue last year, too. The Jays ranked 23rd in opponents' wOBA and 27th in opponents' xwOBA on balls in play. Strong defense should help them maintain that gap between their wOBA and xwOBA, but there's only so much defenders can do when the opposing team is crushing the baseball – and often crushing it out of the yard: Blue Jays Pitchers Are Still Getting Crushed Home Runs Barrels Barrel Rate 97 (T-28th) 180 (29th) 10.4% (30th) 2025 data via FanGraphs, league rank in parentheses So, if Blue Jays pitchers are going to get killed on contact, the best thing they can do is prevent their opponents from getting the bat on the ball. (Well, really, the best thing they can do is stop giving up so much hard contact, but that's a topic for another day.) That's exactly what they've done. The Blue Jays' most notable bullpen additions from the offseason, Jeff Hoffman, Yimi García, and Nick Sandlin, are all excellent at racking up whiffs. Rookie relievers Braydon Fisher and Mason Fluharty have also done excellent work inducing swing and miss. Best of all, Brendon Little has improved his already-excellent whiff rate to a league-leading (min. 30 IP) 47.5%. As you might have guessed from the list of players I offered up, Toronto's whiff rate improvement has a lot more to do with the bullpen than the starting rotation. In 2024, Jays relievers and starters had identical 23.7% whiff rates. This year, their starters' whiff rate is almost identical to last year, but their relievers have improved their whiff rate to an incredible 30.7%. Needless to say, that's the biggest year-to-year improvement of any team. The Jays shot up from last place in reliever whiff rate into the top two. Yet, to only focus on the relievers wouldn't be fair. Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, Chris Bassitt, and Bowden Francis have all upped their whiff rates this season, albeit marginally, collectively improving from 22.0% to 24.0%. The reason it seems like the starters' whiff hasn't improved is because of the arms they've lost – namely Yusei Kikuchi and his 28.1% whiff rate with the Jays last year – and the lack of good replacements. The Max Scherzer signing was supposed to help the rotation in the whiffs department; even in his age-39 season, he induced whiffs at an excellent 29.2% rate last year. Unfortunately, the crew of fifth starters that have filled in for Scherzer have combined for a mere 22.8% whiff rate. That low number is undercutting the improvements the rest of the rotation has made. Regardless, there is no doubt that the Blue Jays' pitching staff has been better this season, in large part because they're inducing more whiffs. It's still far from a perfect group, but it's a big step up from last year. As long as the whiffs keep coming, this pitching staff can work with a stellar defense and solid lineup to keep the Jays in the postseason race. *** As an addendum, I'll leave you with a compilation I put together of some of the Blue Jays' pitchers' most impressive whiffs this year: Put that on repeat and inject it into my veins. Stats and rankings in article updated prior to games on Sunday, June 15. View full article

Alejandro Kirk went 2-for-5 on Wednesday. It was his 19th multi-hit game of the year. Yet, considering how well he's been playing lately, his performance in the series finale against the Cardinals was actually something of a disappointment. It marked the first time in two weeks that Kirk appeared in a game without either scoring or driving in a run. Through the first four weeks of the 2025 season, Kirk slashed a mediocre .211/.250/.282, good for a 49 wRC+. In 36 games and 142 plate appearances since then, he has a .388/.430/.527 slash line with a 172 wRC+. Those numbers are so ridiculously good that his two-hit performance on Wednesday somehow brought his OPS and wRC+ in that period down a few ticks. On April 25, Kirk went 2-for-4 with a double and two RBIs. Since that day, he leads all qualified players in batting average. He has reached base in 32 of the 36 games he's played. Only two AL batters have struck out at a lower rate, and only five have a higher wRC+: Aaron Judge, Cal Raleigh, Rafael Devers, Jacob Wilson, and José Ramírez. Even more impressive, his .435 xwOBA ranks second only to Judge's. We aren't seeing the same level of production from Kirk that we saw in May and June of 2022 – he was just that phenomenal over those two months – but this is certainly the best he has looked at any point since the second half of the 2022 campaign: via FanGraphs All told, Kirk is now hitting .325 on the season, with a 129 wRC+ and an OPS above .800. He's walking less and swinging more, but how can you blame him when he's making such strong contact on those swings? Kirk has always been among the game's best at avoiding swing-and-miss, but what he's doing right now is so much more than that. He hasn't just been good at making contact, he's been good at making good contact. While he doesn't swing the bat particularly hard, Kirk is getting the most out of his swings, as reflected by his elite squared-up rate. Per MLB.com, squared-up rate measures how much of the highest possible exit velocity (calculated using bat and pitch speed) a batter obtains on his swings. An excellent squared-up rate is the missing link between Kirk's middling bat speed and elite hard-hit rate. With that said, he has also been swinging harder this season than in 2023 and '24. That's only further reason for optimism, especially considering he is still making contact at elite rates. In particular, Kirk has been using his faster swing to demolish offspeed pitches. He's hitting fastballs quite well, while breaking balls have given him some trouble as usual. As for offspeed stuff? His average exit velocity against offspeed pitches is 98.2 mph, while more than three-quarters of offspeed pitches he's put into play have registered as hard-hit. His wOBA on offspeed pitches is .503, while his xwOBA is nearly as impressive at .490. The sample size is small – offspeed offerings only represent 8.0% of all pitches he's seen this year – but the results are undeniable. No AL hitter (min. 50 offspeed pitches seen) has a higher Statcast RV/100 (run value per 100 pitches) against offspeed stuff than Kirk. Funnily enough, or perhaps exactly as you'd expect, it was an offspeed pitch that helped Kirk bust out of his early-season slump. And it wasn't just any offspeed pitch, but a changeup from arguably the best changeup pitcher in the game. On April 25, Kirk crushed a Devin Williams changeup to deep center field for a go-ahead double in the ninth. He’s been on fire ever since: It's also important to keep in mind that Kirk is so much more than his bat. He's one of the league's best defenders at the most essential defensive position. According to the numbers at Baseball Savant, he has been an elite framer, blocker, and thrower this season, and accordingly, he leads all catchers in Statcast Fielding Run Value (FRV). In addition, he leads AL catchers in Defensive Runs Above Average (Def) according to FanGraphs, and ranks among the top five in Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and Baseball Prospectus's Deserved Runs Prevented (DRP). Long story short? Every source agrees that Kirk is a major asset behind the plate. Everything he does at the plate is just gravy – and right now, that gravy is gourmet. The pressure was high for Kirk entering 2025. Without Danny Jansen to share the workload, he was going to be expected to catch significantly more often. Indeed, he's currently on pace to catch more than 1,000 innings this season. His career high is 775. On top of that, he signed a five-year, $58 million extension just days before Opening Day. The deal begins in 2026 and will keep him in Toronto through 2030. I argued at the time that his contract was extremely team-friendly, but even so, I can understand why it might have put more pressure on him to perform. The last thing he would have wanted was for fans to be calling him a bust before his new contract had even officially kicked in. At first, it seemed like Kirk might be crumbling under that pressure. Yet, instead of letting his slow start get to him, he's been able to turn things around in a remarkable way. Alejandro Kirk is playing like one of the best catchers in baseball right now. And still a youthful 26 years old, he might be just entering his prime. Stats and rankings updated prior to games on June 12. View full article

I've been giving the All-Star Game a lot of thought lately. The game, scheduled for July 15, is still more than a month away, but the first round of voting for All-Star starters kicked off last week. As the managing editor of a Blue Jays blog, it's my job to try to think of timely and relevant article ideas every day, and right now, All-Star voting is one of the buzziest topics around the league. The problem, however, is that the Blue Jays don't have many players with a strong case to start the game. Alejandro Kirk is playing well, but Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh has all but locked up his first All-Star start. Kirk has no chance. The competition is much closer at first base, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s superstar status could earn him some extra votes, but he currently trails Jonathan Aranda, Spencer Torkelson, and Paul Goldschmidt in OPS and wRC+. Meanwhile, two of Toronto's top four players by WAR (both the FanGraphs and Baseball Reference varieties) aren't even on the ballot: utilityman Ernie Clement and backup catcher Tyler Heineman. So, instead of thinking about fan voting for the All-Star starting lineup, I've already turned my attention to the pitching staff and the reserves, who are selected by the commissioner’s office or voted in via the players' ballot. You see, each team is guaranteed at least one All-Star every year. That means the Blue Jays will have a representative at the All-Star Game this summer, whether anyone on the club "deserves" the honor or not. It might be early, but I'm already starting to wonder who that rep might be. Kirk and Guerrero are having solid seasons, but I worry they have too much competition at their positions to earn a spot. Clement has far less competition at second base, and his versatility could also allow him to join the team as a utility player without taking up a spot at a particular position. He might seem like a strange choice at first glance, but he leads the team in bWAR and ranks a close second behind Kirk in fWAR. Additionally, he ranks among the AL leaders in several defensive metrics, which I wrote about on Monday. In fact, it was the discussion in the comments underneath that post that led me to write the piece I'm you're reading right now. However, as multiple commenters pointed out, Clement's bat isn't All-Star quality, and his status as a utilityman could actually end up working against him. (Sometimes, utility players get written off as bench players.) As much as I've enjoyed watching Clement this season, I have to agree. Barring a red-hot offensive performance over the next few weeks, he's probably not making the All-Star team. Another under-the-radar candidate to consider is Brendon Little. I first started to take his candidacy seriously last week, when I realized that only one AL reliever had thrown more innings with a lower ERA: Twins closer Jhoan Duran. That's still true, although Bryan Abreu of the Astros has tied Little; they've each given up five earned runs in 29 innings of work. (Note: This article was written prior to games on Monday, June 9.) Little is also one of just three AL relievers (min. 25 IP) to rank within the top 10 in both ERA and strikeout rate, along with Josh Hader of the Astros and Andrés Muñoz of the Mariners. Unfortunately, it's difficult for a non-closer to make the All-Star team, especially one with a track record as limited as Little's. That doesn't mean it's impossible; Yennier Cano in 2023 or Matt Strahm in 2024 are two recent examples of non-closers without much name recognition who rightfully earned All-Star selections. Still, Little is another longshot, even if one could argue he's the most deserving choice. At a loss for who might represent Toronto in this year's Midsummer Classic, I finally realized the answer had been under my nose all along. It's George Springer, who is enjoying an offensive renaissance in his age-35 campaign. A four-time All-Star, two-time Silver Slugger, and the 2017 World Series MVP, Springer saw his offensive performance drop off substantially in 2023 and '24. As he entered his fifth season with the Blue Jays, it seemed like his best days were behind him. Yet instead, the oldest hitter in Toronto's 2025 starting lineup has also been the most productive. He leads the team (min. 60 PA) in home runs (10), OPS (.852), and wRC+ (142). How didn't I consider this guy for an All-Star spot sooner? Indeed, Springer also stacks up quite nicely compared to other AL outfielders. Among the 45 outfielders on the AL All-Star ballot, only two, Aaron Judge and Matt Wallner, have a higher OPS or wRC+ than Springer. There's no doubt that Judge will be starting for the AL All-Star squad, but Wallner has only played 25 games this season, so his All-Star chances are slim. Among primary outfielders in the AL with a minimum of 100 plate appearances, Springer's 0PS and wRC+ rank second only to Judge. He also ranks second to Judge with a .403 expected wOBA, while his Win Probability Added (WPA) ranks third behind Judge and Trent Grisham. I knew Springer was having a terrific season, but I didn't realize just how terrific until I looked at the numbers. Funnily enough, the act of writing this paragraph has made me start to wonder if the Blue Jays might have an All-Star starter after all. But wait! There is a reason I initially overlooked Springer's All-Star candidacy, and it's no small concern: his glove. Springer might have a perfect 1.000 fielding percentage this year, but his defensive range isn't what it used to be. In just 277.2 innings, he has accumulated -8 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and a -7 FRV (Fielding Run Value). Both of those numbers are tied for last among AL outfielders. What's more, Springer has DH'd in 25 games this year, and his 277.2 outfield innings rank just 38th in the Junior Circuit. Let that sink in: 37 outfielders have played more often – some have played more than twice as many innings – but none has a lower DRS or FRV. According to the numbers at FanGraphs, Springer's defense has been so bad that it almost cancels out all of the value he's provided with his bat. So, despite his 142 wRC+, he only has 1.0 fWAR, putting him on pace for a 2.5-win season. That's solid production, especially from a player who turns 36 in September, but it's hardly All-Star worthy. To that point, Springer ranks just 19th among AL outfielders in FanGraphs WAR. Take small amounts of WAR with a huge grain of salt, but there are typically only seven or eight spots for outfielders on the All-Star team. Springer has a lot of ground to make up if he's going to climb from 19th into the top eight. With that in mind, I almost wonder if he would have a better case for the All-Star Game as a candidate at DH. He would lead qualified AL designated hitters in stolen bases, while ranking third in wRC+ and OPS. However, there are usually only two DH spots on an All-Star roster, and currently, it would be hard to argue against those spots going to Rafael Devers and Ryan O'Hearn. Drat. Ultimately, I still think Springer is the Blue Jays' most likely All-Star. He wouldn't necessarily be my choice, but offensive stats tend to hold more weight than defensive metrics when it comes to All-Star selections, and Springer's offensive numbers truly are All-Star worthy. I'm not sure he'd get in if it weren't for the rule requiring every team to have at least one representative at the game. Yet, as of now, the need for one All-Star from Toronto clears a path for Springer to play in the fifth Midsummer Classic of his career. Stats updated prior to games on Monday, June 9. View full article

Seems like you're picking and choosing my words. I want to make sure my point is clear, because I think this is an interesting discussion! Clement might not be “deserving” compared to all AL players. I don't think he is, and I never said he was. But he doesn't need to be. Toronto gets an All-Star rep whether anyone "deserves" it or not. So Clement can be undeserving of an All-Star nod and still deserving compared to his teammates at the same time.

That’s totally fair, although Espinal wasn’t voted in by fans. And my point wasn’t that either of them is “deserving” per se, but rather that if Espinal could be selected, why not Clement? I think a point that’s missing in this discussion is that Toronto needs an All-Star. Every team gets one. Clement might not be “deserving” in comparison to the rest of the league — and I never said he was — but there is at least a case that he’s deserving in comparison to his teammates. If Springer can be Toronto’s All-Star rep with great offensive stats and, in my opinion, terrible defense, why can’t Clement be an All-Star with mediocre stats and elite defense?

I agree, but the Blue Jays need someone to represent them at the ASG... and to BB17's point, Santiago Espinal's All-Star first half in 2022 is actually a pretty close comp for what Clement is doing right now. If I had to guess right now, I'd say Toronto's All-Star is either George Springer or Brendon Little. But I don't think it's crazy to make a case for Clement, considering he's been one of the best defenders in the league by multiple metrics.

Last Wednesday afternoon, I received an email from the Blue Jays’ marketing department asking me to vote for nine Blue Jays players to represent the team at this summer’s All-Star Game in Atlanta. You probably got the same one. What struck me about the email (besides the airplane theme; why is All-Star voting airplane themed?) was the most obvious omission from the graphic: Ernie Clement. I understand why Clement isn’t on the All-Star ballot. All-Star voting is broken down by position, and Clement doesn’t really have one. He started the year as Toronto's third baseman, but Addison Barger has taken over the hot corner. He also played a lot of second base while Andrés Giménez was injured, but now that the three-time Gold Glover is back, the keystone is covered. Clement can play shortstop and first base too, but needless to say, he isn’t usurping Bo Bichette or Vladimir Guerrero Jr. anytime soon. Thus, he is stuck in utilityman purgatory. As multi-positional players have become more prominent around the league, they’ve earned their own Gold Glove and Silver Slugger categories. The AL All-Star team, however, is an actual team that has to play an actual game. So, there’s no room for a utility category when it comes to All-Star voting. That’s too bad, because Clement is arguably the most deserving All-Star Toronto has. He has played in more games this year than every Blue Jay save for Vladdy and Bo. And he's been good! When that email hit my phone on Wednesday, Clement led the team in both the FanGraphs and Baseball Reference versions of WAR. Alejandro Kirk has since overtaken him on the FanGraphs leaderboard, but the point stands that Clement has been one of Toronto’s most valuable players so far in 2025. Clement is batting .275 on the season, thanks in large part to his 12.1% strikeout rate, the sixth-lowest among qualified AL hitters. He doesn’t offer much power, but his 12 doubles and three home runs have helped him keep his wRC+ right around league average. That said, his adequate offense really only matters insofar as it allows John Schneider to keep his glove on the field. You see, if there’s any case to be made that Clement is an All-Star, it’s because he’s been one of this year’s best defenders – not just on the Jays, but across Major League Baseball. Clement was a Gold Glove finalist at third base last season, alongside veteran stars Alex Bregman and José Ramírez. It was all the more impressive considering he played less than half a season’s worth of innings (661) at the position. So far in 2025, Clement’s defense has looked even better. Splitting his time between second and third base, with a handful of games at shortstop and first base for good measure, he has compiled 10 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and a +9 Fielding Run Value (FRV). The crux of his All-Star case, if he has one, is that he ranks third among all players in Statcast’s Outs Above Average, in between Bobby Witt Jr. and Pete Crow-Amstrong. It’s important to take defensive metrics with a grain of salt, especially this early in the season. A metric like OAA can be heavily influenced by a small sample of plays, and the chances of Clement maintaining his current pace and finishing the season with 27 OAA are slim to none. Regardless, no one can rack up 11 OAA in 62 games without playing some damn fine defense. Whether his performance is sustainable or not, I’m confident in saying Clement has been one of the best defenders in the league this year. His tremendous performance might not be rewarded with an All-Star selection (or even a spot on the ballot), but nonetheless, he deserves recognition for everything he’s done for the Blue Jays thus far. So, inspired by Mike LeSage’s recent piece about Daulton Varsho’s defensive wizardry, I decided to compile some of Clement’s best plays from 2025. Good defense isn’t always flashy; more often than not, the best defenders are the ones who make tough plays look easy. Still, Clement has made his fair share of highlight-reel stops, catches, and throws, and you can watch several of my favorites down below. First Base Versatility is one of Clement’s primary assets, and indeed, he has earned at least one OAA at all four infield positions. To reflect that, I decided to group his highlights by position. First base, as you might expect, offers the least exciting clips, but just remember that this compilation of solid glovework is merely an amuse-bouche for the true web gems to follow: Second Base Clement has played half as many games and about 100 fewer innings at second base than third base this year, but he’s racked up more defensive value at the keystone (5 DRS, 5 OAA) than any other spot. This first play might not look particularly difficult – Clement snaps it out of the air like he’s playing catch with a kid – but the ball came off the bat at 108.6 mph. With an .800 expected batting average (based on launch angle and exit velocity), this batted ball was the most unlikely out Clement has recorded all year: This next one is more classic highlight reel material. On a low liner up the middle with a .570 xBA off the bat, Clement lays out and makes a nice diving catch. Even more exciting than the play itself was the context. If this one had gotten past Clement, the tying run might have come around to score. Instead, the Blue Jays closed out a hard-fought win, their fourth in a row, to secure a series victory: Here’s a great example of the kind of play that looks easy for Clement, when a second baseman with worse instincts easily could have let it slip through into right field for a base hit. The ball shot off the bat at 105.3 mph, giving Clement limited time to run over and grab it before resetting himself and turning to make the throw: Meanwhile, this one might have been a routine play if it weren’t for the high stakes of the situation. The Blue Jays’ infield was playing in with a quick runner on third in a close game. Clement fields a weak tapper to second base with precision and gets the ball home just in time for Kirk to apply the tag: Here’s Clement getting the tag down to catch Cal Raleigh stealing second base after an uncharacteristically poor throw from Kirk. Clement has to jump way out in front of the bag to get to the ball, but he still manages to record the out – and finishes with a fun little 360 spin on his bum. Is this baseball or breakdancing? Last but certainly not least is a pair of terrific barehanded plays. The first requires Clement to run from the edge of the grass in right-center field to the opposite side of second base, where he scoops the ball up and makes an accurate side-armed throw to record the out: The other is perhaps an easier play but arguably more exciting, considering the runner in question. Chandler Simpson is one of the fastest players in professional baseball, and no one is better suited to convert a slow bouncer into an infield hit. Yet, Clement reads this one perfectly. He knows he has to barehand the ball if he wants any chance of catching Simpson. He doesn’t hesitate at all, and he gets the ball into Vladdy’s glove just in time to win the race: Shortstop It feels a little anticlimactic going from second base, where Clement has made so many strong plays, to shortstop, where Clement has only made two starts and played a total of 27 innings. Thankfully, the one highlight I have to show you from shortstop is a doozy. With yet another move that could be right out of Olympic breakdancing, Clement slides down on his knees, picks the ball out of the air, and continuing in one fluid motion, he stands up, spins around, and fires an underhand throw to second base to start a double play. I won’t tell you what Braydon Fisher appears to be saying after the play (this is a family-friendly website), but it’s the perfect reaction to glovework like this: Third Base Finally, let’s end off at third base, the position Clement has played more than any other in his big league tenure. In the first highlight I’ve chosen, which MLB Film Room describes as “nifty,” Clement steps back to field a groundball down the line. His arm is his weakest defensive tool, but you wouldn’t know it from this clip. Clement gets the ball to first base in plenty of time: On this one, Clement reaches the ball quickly, preventing it from slipping through the hole into left field. Bichette’s limited range at shortstop isn’t as much of a problem when you have a defender like Clement to pick up the slack: This diving stop from over the weekend speaks for itself. Once again, Clement ranges over to his right to steal a base hit: As for this next play, it probably shouldn’t have been Clement’s responsibility at all – he catches it in between second base and the pitcher’s mound – but everyone else lost the ball in the sun. Clement saw it coming down just in time to bolt for it and make a rare infield diving catch: As terrific as it is, the penultimate play I have for you doesn’t actually make for a great highlight. Jhonkensy Noel hit this ball so hard (115 mph) that Clement has already caught it by the time he appears on screen. Still, it’s clear from how he’s positioned when we first catch a glimpse of him (with the ball already in his glove) that he had to do some Gold Glove-caliber work to get there. This kind of play is a picture-perfect example of why they call it the hot corner: Finally, before I call it a day, I’ll leave you with my all-time favorite Ernie Clement highlight. This was from last September, but it’s simply too stunning not to include in a piece about Clement’s best defensive work. This could very well be the play that made him a Gold Glove finalist at third base in 2024: Holy smoke. I'm not sure what to say, other than: Ernie, if you’re reading this, I challenge you to top that. I don't know how you'd do it, but I want to see you try. The Blue Jays haven't been the most consistent team in 2025, but if there's one thing you can count on when it comes to this club, it's Ernie Clement's glove. Day in and day out, no matter where he's stationed, he's been one of the best defenders in the game. Stats and rankings updated prior to games on Sunday, June 8. View full article

Jeff Hoffman and Jordan Romano have plenty in common. Born four months apart in 1993, they were each selected by the Blue Jays in the 2014 draft, Hoffman in the first round and Romano in the 10th. Both underwent Tommy John surgery early in their careers, Hoffman right before he was drafted and Romano not long after. Then, each bounced between multiple organizations before making his way back to the Jays. Romano was taken by the White Sox in the 2018 Rule 5 draft and subsequently traded to the Rangers, but Texas returned him to Toronto after a mediocre spring. It was the right decision by the Rangers – Romano wasn’t ready for the majors – but there’s no denying the Blue Jays caught a lucky break. A year later, Romano broke out as one of the game’s top relievers. He earned two All-Star nods with Toronto, while racking up more than 100 saves. Hoffman was the headlining prospect in the Troy Tulowitzki trade, and the Rockies later dealt him to the Reds. After a brief spring training stint with the Twins, Hoffman signed on with the Phillies in 2023. Over the next two years, he established himself as an All-Star reliever and gave the performance that ultimately earned him his three-year, $33 million contract from the Blue Jays last winter. Funnily enough, a month before Hoffman signed in Toronto, Romano (non-tendered by the Blue Jays after an injury-riddled 2024) inked a deal with Philadelphia. The two effectively switched places. Their fates are now intertwined. The Athletic’s Kaitlin McGrath reported the Blue Jays were “interested” in re-signing Romano before he joined the Phillies. Her colleague Matt Gelb reported the Phillies were “interested” in re-signing Hoffman before they pivoted to Romano. Yet, in the end, Philadelphia valued Romano more highly than Toronto did, while the Jays gave Hoffman the multi-year commitment the Phillies were hesitant to offer. At his best, Romano was lights out for the Blue Jays. Hoffman was nearly unhittable for the Phillies. But each team wanted what the other had. Of course, free agent signings aren’t a zero-sum game. One of these signings doesn’t need to be a failure for the other to be a success. Someday, we might look back and realize everyone involved – the Blue Jays and Hoffman and the Phillies and Romano – made the right decision from their point of view. Still, it’s impossible not to compare these two players, especially when they just faced off mano a mano. Or should I say, (Hoff)mano a (Ro)mano. Before I get to that faceoff, however, I should zoom out for a moment. We can't compare Hoffman's and Romano's performances this week without considering their performances all season. Hoffman started his Blue Jays tenure on the right foot, with a 1.10 ERA and 1.43 FIP through his first 14 games. Romano, meanwhile, gave up 15 runs (14 earned) before he reached the 10-inning mark with the Phillies. Yet, Hoffman suffered through several poor outings in May. He has a 13.06 ERA and 7.92 FIP in 13 games since May 6. As for Romano, he has finally settled in. Since April 27, he has a 3.38 ERA and a 2.25 FIP in 14 appearances. He’s starting to look more like the shutdown arm who protected leads for the Blue Jays from 2020-23. All told, through the first 62 games of the 2025 campaign, Hoffman and Romano have gotten off to similar starts. Hoffman has made 27 appearances, Romano 25. Hoffman has 13 saves, while Romano has eight saves and five holds (for a total of 13). Each pitcher has 11 shutdown outings and five meltdown outings, as defined by FanGraphs. Hoffman has two losses to his name, while the Blue Jays have lost six games in which he has appeared. Romano also has two losses to his name, and the Phillies have also lost six games in which he has appeared. According to FanGraphs WAR, they’ve provided their teams with roughly equivalent production; Hoffman has been two-hundredths of a win (i.e. a negligible amount) more valuable than Romano. And while Hoffman has more wins, more strikeouts, and a lower ERA, it’s worth keeping in mind that his average annual salary is $2.5 million higher than Romano’s, and the Blue Jays will be paying him in 2026 and ‘27 as well. He's supposed to be better. On Wednesday night, he was. Hoffman came in to face the Phillies for the first time since he left in free agency. Two batters later, Romano was pitching against the Blue Jays for the first time in his career. Hoffman got the job done against his former teammates. He entered with two out in the top of the ninth inning. Alec Bohm singled to put the winning run on first base, but Hoffman induced a groundout from Nick Castellanos on a slider down and away. He kept the game tied, with the top of the Blue Jays order due to bat in the bottom of the frame. Romano couldn’t do the same. While he got Bo Bichette to pop out, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. singled, and after Addison Barger struck out on seven pitches, Alejandro Kirk – Romano’s longtime batterymate – walked it off. He crushed a four-seam fastball for a double off the wall in right-center field. Hoffman was one of the first Blue Jays on the field to mob Kirk in celebration. Romano quietly made his way back to the visitors’ dugout. The jury is still out on which team won the closer swap. Both Hoffman and Romano have the stuff to be dominant back-end arms, but so far, neither the Blue Jays nor the Phillies have gotten the reliable ninth-inning presence they were hoping for. In their first head-to-head matchup, however, it was the Blue Jays who came out on top. View full article

Thanks a lot, I really appreciate hearing that!

On Friday, Chris Bassitt took the mound against the Athletics, his team from 2015 to 2021. His final year with the A’s was arguably the best he's ever had. He went 12-4 with a 3.15 ERA. He was an All-Star for the first (and so far only) time. His 4.0 Baseball Reference WAR ranked eighth among AL pitchers. His 3.3 FanGraphs WAR ranked 11th. Both were career-highs. Four years and two teams later, the veteran right-hander is a very different pitcher. His primary fastball is still a sinker, but his velocity is down by a mile and a half. Even accounting for the change in velocity, the pitch drops more than it used to. And that's just the tip of the iceberg. Bassitt's average arm angle is six degrees lower than it was in 2021, while his average release point is more than a foot closer to third base. He throws his curveball far more and his four-seam fastball much less. He no longer throws his changeup at all. Instead, his splitter has become his primary off-speed pitch – and that’s what I’d like to talk about today. Bassitt introduced a splitter to his arsenal when he joined the Blue Jays in 2023. If you've been paying close attention to the types of pitches this team likes to throw, that shouldn't come as a huge surprise. Over the past four seasons, the Jays have thrown significantly more splitters than any other club (per Statcast). Just under 7% of all pitches the Jays have thrown since 2022 have been splitters. The league median is 2.2%, while no other team is above 5% in that time. This is largely because of Kevin Gausman, who throws both a ton of innings and a ton of splitters. However, the Jays have acquired and developed several more splitter-throwers than just Gausman over the past few years (including Erik Swanson, Bowden Francis, Yariel Rodríguez) and encouraged many of them to use their splitters more regularly. Bassitt threw his splitter sparingly at first, and almost exclusively to opposite-handed hitters. He used his splitter 6.5% of the time against lefty batters in 2023 and 7.2% of the time in 2024. This year, that rate is up to 13.1%. Meanwhile, he only threw one lone splitter (that very well could have been miscategorized) to a righty batter in 2023 and only 15 (1.1%) in 2024. Twelve starts into 2025, he's already tossed 16 splitters to righty batters. That’s a low number, but it represents close to a threefold increase in splitter usage against righties compared to last season. All told, Bassitt has thrown his splitter 8.6% of the time this year, making it his fourth most common offering; last year, it was number eight. Here's what's strange about Bassitt throwing his splitter so much more this year: It's not a very good pitch. The table below shows how it has performed over the past three seasons. It's hard to look at these results and think, "That's a pitch he should be using more!" Season wOBA xwOBA Whiff% PutAway% Run Value 2023 .377 .353 22.6% 9.1% -2 2024 .313 .365 16.7% 11.5% -3 2025 .533 .437 21.1% 7.4% -5 It also grades out poorly according to all of the pitch modeling statistics at FanGraphs (Stuff+, Location+, & Pitching+ and PitchingBot Stuff, Command, and Overall) and Baseball Prospectus (PitchPro and StuffPro). To be fair, Bassitt's splitter is clearly still a work in progress. The pitch's velocity, spin rate, and movement profile have changed noticeably in each year he has thrown it. Yet, if anything, that only makes it more surprising to see him throwing his splitter twice as often in 2025. What made him decide it was ready for a more prominent role in his arsenal? Perhaps we can answer that question by looking at how he uses the pitch. Bassitt throws his splitter outside of the strike zone more than two-thirds of the time. That's unusually high, even for a pitch type that tends to be thrown as chase bait – and especially coming from a guy who tends to throw more strikes than the average pitcher. Over the last three years, Bassitt has thrown 52.5% of non-splitters in the strike zone, compared to a 49.9% league average. However, he has only thrown 30% of his splitters in the zone, compared to a 37.2% league average. Take a look at this chart from Baseball Savant that shows the in-zone rate for all of Bassitt's pitches. His splitter is the teal-colored line way below all the others: As you can tell from the full rainbow of colors in the graph, Bassitt is the type of pitcher who succeeds by keeping his opponents guessing with all sorts of different looks. One reason he uses his splitter is simply that it's different from his other pitches. Bassitt needs "different" to survive, even if "different" doesn't always mean "better" (or even "good"). To that point, Bassitt has dropped his changeup from his arsenal after giving up a career-worst 11.5% barrel rate, .440 wOBA, and .364 xwOBA on the pitch last year. His splitter is a different beast, but he throws it at about the same velocity and with a relatively similar movement profile. So, his increased splitter usage might not really be about the splitter at all. Rather, he might just need an offspeed pitch that tunnels well with his sinker, and he no longer trusts his changeup to fill that role. Like I said, Bassitt's modus operandi is keeping opponents on their toes by throwing different pitches in different locations at different speeds and with different movement profiles. His splitter is far from perfect, but ultimately, the fact that it's different might be good enough. Additionally, it's worth noting how many of his out-of-zone splitters have been in the area Statcast calls the shadow zone, which goes from roughly one baseball's width inside the zone to one baseball's width outside the zone. A lot of Bassitt's in-zone splitters have been in the shadow zone as well. All told, he's thrown 50% of his splitters in the shadow zone this year, the highest rate of any of his pitches. As I theorized a couple of weeks ago, living in the shadows seems to be helping Bassitt expand the strike zone as a means of inducing more chase. (That's something he can afford to do because of how well the Blue Jays' catchers frame pitches.) So, while his splitter might not look effective in and of itself, it could be part of a larger plan that is paying off. No matter what the numbers say about his splitter, you can't argue that Bassitt hasn't been successful this season. Indeed, Bassitt has not walked a batter on a splitter this year, even though he throws it outside of the strike zone so often. And despite throwing more splitters in 2025, his walk rate has never been lower. I think it's safe to presume that all these splitters outside the zone aren't just a matter of poor control. Bassitt locates his splitter where he does for a reason. Is it a good enough reason, considering how poorly the pitch has performed? I can't say for sure. Yet, given how well Bassitt has pitched this season, I'd say he's earned the benefit of the doubt. All stats in article updated prior to games on Sunday, June 1. View full article

The Blue Jays’ offense exploded for a 12-0 victory over the Athletics on Thursday. Everyone in the starting lineup reached base at least once. Altogether, the Jays went 18-for-41 (.439) with five walks, three doubles, and four home runs. They struck out just three times. It wasn’t Toronto’s most lopsided win of the season – that would be last week’s 14-0 drubbing of the Padres – but this was arguably a more impressive showing from the bats. They recorded more hits, more extra-base hits, more home runs, more walks, and fewer strikeouts in this one. The Blue Jays swung the bats harder than ever on Thursday (season-high 73.3 mph average bat speed), and it paid off in a big way. Even before last night, the Jays were hitting much better in May than they had in April. They came into Thursday’s contest with 28 home runs, a 109 wRC+, and an average of 4.2 runs per game since the calendar flipped to May. They left with 32 home runs, a 116 wRC+, and an average of 4.5 runs per game, all of which rank top-five in the AL. That’s a huge improvement from the first month of the season, when they ranked among the bottom five in all three categories. The Blue Jays have a solid pitching staff and one of the best defensive units in the league. Still, they need to score runs if they’re going to compete for a playoff spot. Throughout the first month of the season, more often than not, it seemed like that wasn’t going to happen. Now the question becomes: Which version of the Blue Jays offense are we going to see over the next four months? Was April or May more reflective of the lineup’s true talent? There’s no way to know for sure (that’s why they play the games!), but any and all additional data we can get our hands on will inform our expectations for this team going forward. So, I was excited when Statcast came out with several new metrics earlier this month that help us to assess and quantify swings better than ever before. These four new metrics are called swing path, attack angle, ideal attack angle rate, and attack direction. You can find them all on Baseball Savant, and you can read about them in Mike Petriello’s in-depth explainer on MLB.com. I also recommend reading these pieces by Matthew Trueblood of Baseball Prospectus and Davy Andrews of FanGraphs to learn more about all the new data at our disposal. I won't lie, it's complicated stuff, but the best way to learn how to use these numbers is to read about them and play around with them yourself. So, in an effort to further my own understanding, I decided to see what the new Statcast metrics had to say about the Blue Jays as a team. Here's what I found. The Blue Jays Have the Flattest Swings in MLB Swing path, also known as tilt, describes the angle of the bat’s path (in relation to the ground) during the final 40 milliseconds before contacting (or passing) the baseball. A swing that is perfectly parallel to the ground would have a 0-degree swing path, although you’re unlikely to see such a flat swing in a game. The flattest swing by any major league hitter so far this year was a one-degree hack by none other than Toronto’s Anthony Santander. On average, Blue Jays hitters have the flattest swings in the league, with a 30-degree average swing path. For context, the league median swing path is 32 degrees, while the team with the steepest swings, the Tigers, has an average tilt of 35 degrees. In other words, the range isn’t huge at the team level. Still, it’s interesting to see the Blue Jays at one extreme of the list. It’s critical to keep in mind that there isn’t such a thing as a “good” or “bad” swing path. It's not nearly that simple. As you might imagine, steeper swings are more closely correlated with whiffs, while flatter swings can lead to more contact and less power, but take that with a kosher-sized grain of salt. After all, the mighty (and strikeout-prone) Giancarlo Stanton had one of the flattest swings in the game last year, while contact king Luis Arraez had one of the steeper swings in the league. Still, the fact that the Blue Jays have flatter swings than any other team could help explain why they have the lowest strikeout rate in the AL and the lowest whiff rate in MLB. But might it also mean their recent power surge is more mirage than reality? Maybe. But like I said, it’s not really that simple. For instance, Toronto’s average swing path in May is just as flat as it was in April. Yet, this month in particular, the team average has been dragged down by a pair of hitters with two of the flattest swings in the game: Alejandro Kirk and Santander. Kirk has never been much of a power bat, while a slumping Santander has actually hit for less power in May than he did in April. Aggregate team numbers can only tell us so much. The Blue Jays Have the Lowest Average Attack Angle in the AL Attack angle describes the vertical angle at which the bat is travelling as it makes contact with (or passes by) the baseball. As MLB.com's Tom Tango explains, attack angle is “predominantly a function of timing” rather than swing path. In other words, it’s mostly about when during the swing the bat hits the ball, rather than the path the swing is taking. A late swing is more likely to have a negative attack angle, while an early swing is more likely to have a high attack angle. Once again, there isn’t really such a thing as a “good” or “bad” attack angle. However, as is the case with launch angle, most of the best contact comes in a sweet-spot range that’s neither too high nor too low. An attack angle too low will send the ball straight into the dirt, while an attack angle too high will pop it up. Statcast defines the “ideal” attack angle range as five to 20 degrees. Toronto’s eight-degree average attack angle is the lowest in the AL and the second-lowest in MLB. So is their ideal attack angle rate (the percentage of their swings that fall between five and 20 degrees) of 48.4%. The league averages are 10 degrees and 51.5%, respectively. This seems to suggest the Blue Jays have been late swingers this year. I'm not surprised by that, considering they have the lowest pull rate in the American League. What's more, opponents have attacked the Blue Jays with velocity all year. This team has seen four-seam fastballs or sinkers for 49.5% of pitches, compared to the 47.3% league average. On a related note, the average velocity of all pitches the Blue Jays have seen is 89.8 mph, the fastest average velocity in the AL. When it comes to individual players, the one who stands out the most (by far) is Vladimir Guerrero Jr. His average attack angle is the lowest among all qualified MLB hitters, while his ideal attack angle rate is the lowest in the AL. Among Blue Jays batters (min. 30 PA), his ideal attack angle rate is almost six points lower than anyone else's. It’s also about five points lower than it was last year. Guerrero might never be a guy with high attack angles, but it sure seems like poor timing is holding him back from reaching his full potential right now. The Blue Jays Rank in the Middle of the Pack in Attack Direction Attack direction is pretty much the horizontal companion to attack angle. It measures the angle at which the bat is travelling as it makes contact with (or passes by) the baseball, but it is measured in relation to the front of home plate rather than the ground. That means it tells us whether the bat is moving toward a hitter’s pull side or oppo side at the moment of contact. Toronto’s average attack direction is two degrees to the pull side, which is right around league average. As with all of the other metrics we’ve discussed, it’s not necessarily better or worse to have a heavy pull-side or heavy oppo-side average attack direction. That said, swings with a pull-side attack direction are going to lead to pulled contact, which usually results in more extra-base hits. It's interesting to find the Blue Jays sitting in the middle of the pack with a slight pull tendency according to this metric, considering they have such a low pull rate this season. However, one thing to consider is that their pull rate on fly balls is right around league average. So, when vertical angle isn't an issue, the Blue Jays are pulling the ball just fine. However, they're far more likely to be late (and therefore hit the ball to the opposite field) on the balls they hit into the ground. Among individual players, Tyler Heineman stands out with a 13-degree pull-side average attack angle. That’s the fifth most extreme pull-side swing in the league (min. 50 swings). The fact that Heineman is pulling the ball so much has played a big role in helping him maintain such ridiculous offensive numbers despite his slow swing speed and low exit velocities. *** I chose to dig into the Blue Jays' team-wide numbers as a fun way to get my feet wet, but I quickly realized that the new Statcast swing metrics are much more useful for analyzing individual players. For one thing, looking at team averages can hide extreme profiles on both ends of the spectrum. Moreover, what works for one player won’t necessarily work for another. The best swing for Vladdy isn't the best swing for Bo, so there's only so much we can learn from combining their swing data. I also realized that the best use for these metrics is comparing a player's swing from one season to the next, so as to better understand what he might be doing differently. Needless to say, there's a lot more for me (and all of us) to learn about how to use these new stats, and a lot more to learn about how the Blue Jays swing the bat. We're still just scratching the surface. View full article

The Blue Jays spent more money upgrading their bullpen over the 2024-25 offseason than any other AL team; only the Dodgers outspent the Jays on free agent relievers. It wasn’t hard to understand why. Blue Jays relievers had the highest ERA and the lowest strikeout rate in the Junior Circuit last year. According to FanGraphs, their bullpen was three wins worse than that of any other AL team. Heck, their -2.5 bullpen fWAR was the lowest for any AL club in more than a decade. Jeff Hoffman was the big-name signing. Widely considered the second-best bullpen arm on the market (after the southpaw Tanner Scott), Hoffman did indeed command the second-largest contract of any free agent reliever (second only to Scott), inking a three-year, $33 million deal with the Jays. Yimi García didn’t receive nearly as much attention. Many publications left him off their lists of the top free agents, and as far as I can tell, he wasn’t credibly linked to any other suitors before he signed with the Jays. Yet, he was one of just seven relief pitchers to sign a multi-year deal last winter, and his $15 million salary over two years was the sixth-highest guarantee for a free agent reliever. That’s not chump change. García threw 157 innings for the Jays from 2022-24 before they flipped him to the Mariners ahead of the deadline last summer. He then appeared in just 10 games for Seattle before a bout of elbow inflammation sent him to the IL. So, the Blue Jays arguably knew García better than any other team, and they signed him to a $15 million deal despite his age (he’ll be 35 in August), his struggles with Seattle (6 ER in 9.0 IP), and the elbow injury that prematurely ended his 2024 campaign. They were that sure he could be a difference-maker in their bullpen – a bullpen that desperately needed all the help it could get. Over his first 21 appearances in 2025, García was exactly what the Blue Jays hoped he could be. Seeing most of his work in the eighth and ninth innings, he pitched to a 3.15 ERA and 2.98 FIP. Now, he wasn’t always perfect. He earned losses in back-to-back appearances at the beginning of May, giving up a total of seven runs while recording just three outs. He has also issued nine unintentional walks this year, the same number as last year in about half as many innings. Still, by and large, García was effective through those first 21 outings, making use of his 96-mph fastball and deep arsenal of secondaries to earn whiffs and limit extra-base hits. In fact, one could make a case that he was the most trustworthy reliever in John Schneider’s ‘pen. Hoffman is the All-Star closer, but he has been uncharacteristically shaky in May. Conversely, fellow veteran Chad Green has had good results, but his underlying numbers are troubling – specifically his league-worst hard-hit rate. Meanwhile, Brendon Little has been nothing short of stellar, but the sample is still small, and his track record before this season is almost non-existent. García is the only pitcher in the Blue Jays bullpen with good stuff, good results, and a history of success. Or at least he was. Over the weekend, the Blue Jays placed García on the 15-day IL with a right shoulder impingement. He received a cortisone shot on Monday, and for what it's worth, he says he already feels better (per The Athletic’s Mitch Bannon). That said, the team won’t have a clear sense of his timeline until he starts throwing again in a few days. A shoulder impingement is a common cause of shoulder pain, and its severity can vary. Sometimes, all it takes is a little rest, a little ice, and maybe a few Advil to make the pain subside. Other times, however, surgery is the best course of action. In García’s case, it doesn’t seem like surgery will be necessary. Even so, it's very difficult to guess how long it will take before he's back on the field. Just as the severity of a shoulder impingement can vary widely, so can the amount of time it takes for a pitcher to return to the field. For example, Mets star closer Edwin Díaz went on the IL with a shoulder impingement around this time last year. He returned less than three weeks later and pitched to a 2.41 ERA and 2.07 FIP over the rest of the year. All he needed was a little rest, and he was back to being his dominant self. On the other hand, Díaz’s then-teammate (and former Blue Jay) Sean Reid-Foley also dealt with a shoulder impingement last season. He opened the year on the IL and returned in mid-April. However, the impingement came back and shut him down again in June. He spent the rest of the season on the injured list. Then, he failed to make the Mets out of camp this year, and after he struggled badly at Triple A, the Mets released him last week. You can't necessarily blame the shoulder impingement for all of that, but it's concerning all the same. Hopefully, García only needs a brief rest and reset period before he can get back to his pivotal late-inning role in the Blue Jays' bullpen. On top of that, perhaps this shoulder issue, which Schneider said has been simmering for a few weeks (per Sportsnet’s Arden Zwelling), explains some of García’s recent control issues, and the righty will be even better upon his return. At the same time, the Blue Jays have to prepare for the possibility that this could be a longer absence. Arm injuries are always worrisome, and especially so for a pitcher in his mid-thirties. In the meantime, for however long that is, the Blue Jays will have to hope that Hoffman can break out of his May funk and some of the less proven arms in the barn can step up too. (Don’t look now, but Yariel Rodríguez has been fantastic in May.) They'll also hope that Erik Swanson and Ryan Burr, both of whom are currently on rehab assignments, could be on their way back to reinforce the 'pen. That's far from a perfect plan, but right now, it's pretty much all the Jays can do. Relievers might be a dime a dozen in this day and age, but trusted relievers like García are never easy to replace. View full article

In the bottom of the sixth inning on Sunday, Myles Straw made a terrific catch. With two outs, Rays batter Chandler Simpson lined a Paxton Schultz fastball to shallow center field. Straw made the sliding grab look easy, but, of course, it wasn’t. Even a slightly slower outfielder would have had to play it on a hop. And god forbid, if the ball had gone past Straw, the lightning-fast Simpson could have easily turned it into a triple. Instead, Toronto's center fielder recorded the final out of the inning like it was nothing. He slid for the ball and popped back up to jog toward the dugout in one fluid motion. It was just another day at the office for one of the best defensive outfielders in the league: Yet, the next time Straw got his hands on the ball, he was playing a whole new position. In the bottom of the seventh, Nathan Lukes came in to play left field. He took first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s spot in the lineup. To make that work, a few more switcheroos were in order. Jonatan Clase went from left field to center. Michael Stefanic slid from second base to shortstop. Ernie Clement moved from shortstop to first base. That left Straw to play... second base? Yup, second base. Straw had not played the infield since 2020, when he played three innings at shortstop for the Astros in a blowout win. He hasn't played second base since 2019. In total, he has played 54 innings at the keystone in his major league and minor league careers combined. The last of those innings was on September 29, 2019. So, you can hardly blame Straw for looking a little rusty in the infield on Sunday. He only had to make one play at second base, and it was a routine groundball. However, he double-clutched on the throw before slowly lobbing it over to Clement at first base. Thankfully, Yandy Díaz was the one doing the running (if you can even call it that; it was more of a light jog), giving Straw plenty of time to make his awkward throw and record the assist: I can't help but wonder: How often does a Gold Glove-winning center fielder make a highlight-reel catch in the outfield to end one inning, only to find himself at second base – a position he hasn’t played in more than five years – the very next frame? How often do you see a player show such defensive acumen on one play, only to look completely unprepared the next time he touches the ball? Unfortunately, Stathead doesn't have a filter for a search that specific. Ah, well. Blowout losses like the 13-0 pounding the Blue Jays suffered on Sunday aren’t fun. Still, you can find some fun in even the toughest of losses if you’re willing to look for it. Straw playing second base was just one example. Another example? Let's turn to the player who started the game at second. Clement moved from second base to shortstop to first base back to shortstop in the span of three innings. Even for a player whose versatility is a key component of his skill set, that's rare to see. This was the first time he had ever played three different positions in the same game, and certainly the first time he had switched positions three times in three consecutive innings. (He also made outs at all three spots!) What's more, Clement became the first player in Blue Jays history to appear at first base, second base, and shortstop in the same game, and the first MLB player to do so since Brock Holt of the Red Sox in July 2019. Meanwhile, Stefanic became the first Blue Jay ever to appear at second base, shortstop, and pitcher in the same game. (The last MLB player to play those three positions in a game was Pablo Reyes, also of the Red Sox, in August 2023.) This was especially unusual considering Stefanic didn’t even start the game. He only played three defensive innings, and each was at a different spot on the diamond. In close to 150 years of MLB history, no one has ever before played each of those three positions in a game in which they had one plate appearance or fewer. This was Stefanic's second pitching appearance; he also pitched an inning last year with the Angels. Not only that, but it was his second scoreless pitching appearance. While he may have been lobbing the ball over the plate at 60 mph, Stefanic retired all three batters he faced on just seven pitches. He was then the first batter up in the top of the ninth, where he worked an eight-pitch at-bat for a single (giving him a perfect 0.00 ERA and 1.000 batting average on the day). That single was one of just four Blue Jays hits in the entire game, and the first hit by a "pitcher" on any team all season. Funnily enough, a Blue Jays utility infielder was also one of only three “pitchers” to have a hit last season; Isiah Kiner-Falefa played third base, shortstop, and pitcher in a blowout loss to the Dodgers last April and singled in the bottom of the ninth after pitching the top of the inning. All told, the Blue Jays had five different players switch positions and a total of eight positional switches in Sunday's game. In addition to Straw, Clement, Stefanic, and Clase, Anthony Santander moved from DH to first base, marking his first appearance in the infield with Toronto. There is no denying this was a crappy weekend for the Blue Jays. Hot off a sweep of the Padres, the Jays were swept themselves. To make matters worse, the games weren’t all they lost. They also lost their hot-hitting backup catcher, Tyler Heineman, and one of their most important relievers, Yimi García, to the injured list. Nevertheless, we as fans must continue to look for ways to enjoy these games. Even the most crushing defeats can come with little bits of fun and weirdness that make the losses worth watching. If you're going to make it through a 162-game season, sometimes you just have to ignore the score and embrace the strange. View full article