This is right on the money.
Vlad's 48 home run season teased fans and created expectations contrary to his actual expected profile. People started expecting a Big Papi type masher, when the scouting profile on him was clear from the get-go that he was not a power first hitter, but a kid with an elite hit tool and plate discipline that smoked the ball.
I even recall reading a top scout saying this kid will be a superstar, but not a 40-50HR guy, but a +.300 BA; .400ops; 30 HR type hitter. That is very close to what he currently is.
I agree with everyone that this year is a bit of a disappointment, but he also got pretty damn hot during the second half of the season and drove the team's offensive engine for good stretches. Without the massive contract (I was a loud voice calling it an overpay!), it seems a bit crazy to say .292/.381/.467 is a disappointment. But feels that way because his yearly potential is probably a .310/.400/.525 type hitter over a healthy full season. That's the difference between a 4-5 WAR season and a 6-7 WAR type season. Some years he'll exceed that, some years he'll underperform that.
He can be insanely frustrating to watch during cold stretches, but the guy is going to be a consistent driver of offense for the team for years.