BatFlip

I want more

Boom

I'm feeling lucky tonight! LFG!!!!

He'll be a big contributor if can just hover near a 100 OPS in center next year. He's an absolute stud in the outfield.

I was wondering about the same thing. Depending on how much stock you put in DRS, the Jays are #1 in the league this year with 82 defensive runs saved, compared to 44 last year. A simple calculation of the difference over the course of the year would be about -0.24 per game to the pitching rotation's ERA. Not small potatoes. With all other things being equal, that's the difference between Kikuch having a 3.82 ERA with this year's defence vs. a 4.06 ERA with last year's. Not sure if this holds water, but seems to pass the sniff test.

It should be $74M tied up moving forward, with Ryu coming off the books: Gausman - $24M; Bassitt - $22M; Berrios - $18M; Kickuchi - $10M. That's actually not bad for the performance that was delivered this year, but 100% agree that this was a very fortunate year on the health front. It makes the Manoah situation extra depressing, as we could have really used a low-cost starter in the rotation that could plug in for a few years moving forward. We really need either him and/or Tiedmann to be legit moving forward. Maybe one of the other young arms might surprise next year and make a run for the 2025 rotation when Kikuchi is a FA.

30 is kind of one of those arbitrary round numbers, but they were pretty damn close in 2014 and 2015. In 2016, the rotation had even better health/durability: Stroman - 32 JA Happ - 32 Sanchez - 30 (hard to believe now) Estrada - 29 Dickey - 29 Not as rare as you would think to have a healthy 4 out of 5 starting pitchers, but definitely some good luck this year for the rotation with injuries AND performance (Manoah a big, pardon the pun, exception).

Totally agree. The kid needs to get innings and continue to develop so he can make a run at the rotation next year. The Jays' bullpen is deep and one of the best in the majors, trailing only the Rays by WHIP in the AL this year. Maybe you do try to catch lightening in a bottle if the team has some gaping holes on the pitching front.... but they don't. The probable juice isn't worth the squeeze.

200 IP with a 3.60 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP? Pretty damn solid. This guy has been a workhorse. Great win today!

Schneider needs to be in this lineup. We have the ABs to know what Espinal/Whit/Biggio are - we don't know what we have yet in Schneider, and his upside could be a 3-4 WAR 2B. Looking beyond this season, he's a potential godsend for this team given the payroll bump over the last two years. If you can plug Schneider in at 2B next year (with Biggio floating through the infield), and Varsho at CF (the only place he can add value right now) after rough arbitration raises the Jays should have in the neighborhood of $40M to plug 3B, LF, 5th Starting Pitcher, DH. Given the internal options, during hte offseason you do a one year deal or a low cost trade for a 3B who simply acts as floor until Orelvis/Barger force their way into the lineup. Chapman has become much easier to replace than I thought he would be. For your fifth starter, you then have Manoah (if he can get his s*** together), White, Francis as SP depth so you take a high risk flyer on an injury prone veteran to a one year deal. That probably leaves you ~$25M for a desperately needed big bat (preferably two). A bruising bat in the middle of this lineup completely changes the offense, especially if Vlad/Kirk eat more hummus this off-season and can see some sort of rebound next year.

Turns out it's not just chicks that dig the long ball.

We're on the same page there. As a long time fan, I can agree that this has been an especially frustrating team to watch this year..... but the season ain't over yet.

The third strike call on Vladdy with the bases loaded was an absolute kick in the balls. The complexion of the entire game is changed by that missed call. Year in and year out the Yanks are tops in the AL with favoritism from missed calls. This year they have a whopping +16 runs from the umps while the Jays have - 6 runs. That's a 22 run difference over the course of the year, and to put that in perspective that number is equivalent to all the plus defence the Jays have received from KK (+12) and Varsho (+10) based on OAA.

Protecting yourself from the disappointment of a monumental collapse. Which is possible... but not probable. Your posts have become more and more tinged with negativity. If you're going to s*** on the offense, have at it, but the players on this team do have track records to suggest they have more in them. But now saying our pitching isn't good enough? Come on man. G-Snarls hit it on the head: ERA - 1st WAR - 5th xFIP - 5th Strikeouts - 3rd We're all in this together, but you're making this charge for the playoffs a whole lot less fun for everyone when you're on full tilt.

Masterbather is emotionally protecting himself by repeatedly talking about how the team isn't good enough, how we may not make the playoffs, etc. That way, in the slim chance they don't make it (plausible but not probable), he can still feel good by saying "I told you so", but if the Jays do make it and go on a run, he can partake in festivities while talking about what a fluke it was. Having lurked on this board for quite some time, I would say Masterbather is on one of the more annoying poster runs I've seen in quite some time - he's on tilt. Yes, things may not go the Jays way, but that's baseball. Newsflash - all these recent games have been high pressure. Yes, the Jays might not be good enough to make noise this year, but part of the fun of being a fan is recognizing there's still a chance and cheering for the good guys. It's not saying with certainty that every team in the playoffs has more talent than the Jays - it's my opinion that the Jays are actually underperforming this year based on their underlying true talent level. The one thing that I agree with Olerud on is that any team that makes the playoffs can go on a serendipitous run. Let's just get in and let the chips fall where they may!