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AMS528

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Everything posted by AMS528

  1. AMS528
    Given the state of our farm and looking at these new prospects who have actually performed this year, I feel like they basically immediately take up positions in our top ten, especially from the Kikuchi trade. Is Bloss at the top of our list given the injury/suspension? He's anywhere from 1-3. Loperfido is probably 4-5, depending on where you want to slot Yesavage in the top 5. This rescues our farm from being worse than like the Angel's. Edit: Just realized Loperfido lost eligibility. So he won't be part of the lists.
  2. AMS528
    If he is less bad at either of those then he is a 1B and it encourages him to maintain his fitness it really should be something we try. It really would increase the floor of his value. Right now he's tracking as a 4 WAR player by fWAR and a 5 WAR player by bWAR. I have read some posts that seem convincing that his defense isnt quite as bad as OAA would indicate. But any other position he can play below average does raise the ceiling and floor. His bat to ball skills are so good that last year which I think we can consider a but unlucky is probably the floor.
  3. AMS528
    Just for 2.5 months or so. He should really come back in the offseason, sign as our #4/5 pitcher on a fair deal. I'd be pretty happy with that.
  4. AMS528
    I've basically said the same, but when you have these Cavan Biggio type hitters, they have very precarious profiles that can fall apart quickly. Horwitz if he's able to stick at second has a much higher floor.
  5. AMS528
    Sure but he's not even a free agent this year so at least he's ahead of the contract year performance. Seriously though if we don't sign him to an extension he has to get traded this offseason. His numbers are great, barring a sudden collapse he's going to have excellent value again.
  6. AMS528
    Vlads turnaround has been crazy. We're all understandably skeptical but it's been three months and his numbers now match up with the underlying stats. I think people were wondering if he'd even manage 20 HR's this year and now 30 should be reasonably easy. He'd better not turn back into a pumpkin with the bat.
  7. AMS528
    .887 OPS and a 150 wrc+ for Vlad same as Freddie Freeman now. Top 15 in the league. Just on a crazy heater.
  8. AMS528
    Genuinely great trade. Six years of control with a basically ready to go starting pitcher for a two month rental. Plus Kikuchi loves Toronto. Trade Bassitt and bring Kikuchi back in the winter.
  9. AMS528
    Gone for likely all of next year, and suspended for PEDs. What a duo.
  10. AMS528
    Fangraphs updated their top 100. https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board Orelvis at 99 and RT at 100. Nearly but not quite dropping out of there.
  11. AMS528
    It's funny the Jays subreddit is usually a hugbox for the players and hates Atkins but they like this deal. And it's true you can't expect that much for an expiring contract player with a history of injury concerns having a mediocre year. What we got is fairly reasonable.
  12. AMS528
    Yeah I chimed in about how you were wrong that Vlad is a 1-2 WAR player and you responded with something entirely irrelevant to what I said.
  13. AMS528
    Are you illiterate? I said he has value and would get a decent return, no where except in your own head did I write that we would have a powerful farm system by trading him. And my response was more about the stupidity of calling him a 1-2 WAR player. Which you didn't respond back to because of how obviously wrong it was.
  14. AMS528
    I was aware haha. But also I think anytime anyone makes a vaguely political post they should really just quote that Olerud bit.
  15. AMS528
    D'Arnaud with the best career, and also one of the widest percentage gap of almost any player between bWAR and fWAR (I think by raw numbers Mo Rivera has a huge discrepency but not as large as a percentage). He has 20 fWAR and 8.8 bWAR. Not super surprising he had the best career, he really became the top prospect quick after the trade. Drabek was a guy who was way overvalued as a prospect back then, and wouldn't even be considered near that level of prospect these days. Interesting to see how he was a top 30 piece.
  16. AMS528
    Just recollection. I think I made a few posts about it. And here I replied to John where he mentions it's at the 23rd percentile on June 28.
  17. AMS528
    Not political please do not censor. Only making point about "loser" attitudes. Vance has loser attitudes and that is what I am commenting on, nothing at all politcial so do not respond with anything political, only thoughts on the winner vs. loser attitudes.(Credit: Olerud363)
  18. AMS528
    A 35% strikeout rate as a 24 year old in AA doesn't bode well, but maybe they figure that out.
  19. AMS528
    Sure, long term they absolutely are. But when they potentially start to flame out this early it doesn't even create trade chip value. https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-international-prospects-signing-day-2023 Like you can search up the seasons for the top 15 here, and Bonilla is having pretty easily the worst season of any of those signings besides Shim who has been injured. Salas is having a poor season, but he is literally in high A ball as an 18 year old so that can't be compared to Bonilla's struggles two levels below that. Yeah international signings can be a lottery, but relative to the rest of the international guys signed that year he's also really bad. Lots of that top 15 are having solid value raising seasons.
  20. AMS528
    Hah yeah it could really be ugly, but like I mentioned earlier, he's horrific at 1B and it doesn't use his one strength which is his arm. He has reasonably average sprint speed as well. I'm not saying it would work out well necessarily, but maybe it's worth a shot.
  21. AMS528
    Yeah Tirotta I considered which is really why I said FCL to New Hampshire. I see both him and Cancel are infielders. Excellent, that's exactly where every other Buffalo call-up played.
  22. AMS528
    If you guys want to look at sustainability, Vlad's launch angle sweet spot has crept up from 20th percentile to 32nd percentile since May. Honestly genuinely good news on that front. He's been putting together the better aspects of his 2022 and 2023 seasons. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/vladimir-guerrero-jr-665489?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb Since the lowpoint of his season in April, from April 26th onwards he's played 74 games at 319/375/528 good for a 155 wRC+. There's good signs. Get him away from 1B to RF, where who knows maybe it even encourages him to maintain his current fitness levels and yeah we can sign him long term and feel ok that there's a floor there.
  23. AMS528
    J.D Vance has incredible loser energy. 100% podcast loser energy. Makes terrible jokes, had a personal angsty blog, licking boots to compensate for earlier statements. Pure unadulterated loser energy.
  24. AMS528
    Jesus Christ Enmanuel Bonilla has been horrific for a 4.1 million dollar signing. 35% strikeout rate in FCL and not even any power to compensate so far. Alan Roden has been pretty bad in AAA since his promotion. Walks and strikeouts haven't been bad at least, but he's not hitting at all. Besides the Buffalo call ups, there is basically not a single real positive performance I can see for hitters from the FCL on up to New Hampshire. Like it is barren. Nimmala managing to recover his year slightly is the best news we've got. It's no wonder that there's like 10 posts every two weeks in this thread. It's just sadness. There's I guess some pitchers ( Trenton Wallace, Fernando Perez, Watts-Brown) who've looked decent but nothing very exciting. I think post Horwitz call up and with Jimenez having a decent shot at losing his prospect status with all of Bo's injuries, the Orelvis suspension and RT being injured all year, this is pretty easily a bottom 5 farm system, and arguably the worst farm system in the majors. "Bare cupboard". The deals for Kikuchi/Green/Garcia better bring something decent.
  25. AMS528
    https://x.com/scottymitchtsn/status/1816079288560472338?s=46 Honestly just take him into the back and shoot him now. Can't get any luck with these guys. It's starting to feel like this is going to be another lost season developmentally for RT. Hopefully nothing that leads to an additional lost season essentially. If he does, well then you start to consider him more like a lottery ticket you're hoping to get really lucky with, and if he's not a reliever than that's a win.
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