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AMS528

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Everything posted by AMS528

  1. AMS528
    When your two best, and only top 100 prospects go from: 1) #2 starter potential down to if they become a back end starter you'd be happy with it now 2) PED suspension It's going to be rough as hell. Getting anything at all from RT is now the hope. He went from his 50th percentile outcome being at least a starter to his 50% outcome being a mediocre reliever and that may be me being hopeful. We could see him in the fall league next year if things go ok. And then being built back up. From a 2024 potential arrival to 2026. We need this years draft class/a couple of the pickups from the deadline/next years draft class to all hit to take us into an above average farm system.
  2. AMS528
    Feel like most of the shine is off of Davis Schneider now. He's still only going to be 26 next year, but there's some strong Cavan Bigigo vibes there. Unless he has a strong end of the year can't imagine he's got more than a utility role going into next year. We've probably got a few too many infield utility player types, Clement/Jimenez/Schneider/Barger all fall into that category, and now we've got Wagner as well. At some point Orelvis will be up post suspension. I want to see them stick with Horwitz at 2B cause I've got more faith in his bat there. Barger is still entirely a question mark and Jimenez hasn't shown much. If we're lucky one of those guys can be a starter for a while and my money is on Horwitz. If we trade Bo and sign/trade for a replacement or if we decide to stick with Bo then we definitely should be seeing what reliever we can get for some of our utility pieces. Clement's had the strongest showing so far as a bench piece I think.
  3. AMS528
    The Devers deal is kind of what I'm expecting.
  4. AMS528
    If I have to watch Vladdy hit a trillion home runs against us as a Red Sox in his favorite hitting park just kill me now.
  5. AMS528
    Ah the "bare cupboard" approach. I wonder what kind of dressing down 2015 Shapiro would give 2024 Shapiro for the state of it. Also I'm in complete agreement about the rotation. Berrios has been a fringe starter for 2 out of the last 3 seasons so now you have to hope for a good performance from him instead of expecting one. A s***** year from him is no longer the outlier. Man we went at the end of 2022 from a rotation with two number 1 type pitchers (Gausman/Manoah), a very solid potential #3/4 in Berrios and after the Bassit signing, and some combination of Kikuchi/Ryu/White to round it out with the expectation that Tiedemann would possibly be on the way if he had a really good year. Even after Manoah's implosion Kikuchi being very solid papered over that last year and there was still Tiedemann. Now we basically have a good mid rotation, with no certainty on either the back end or at the front end for a 1/2 if Gausman doesn't bounce back.
  6. AMS528
    That's not even a joke really, it's basically true. IKF, Turner and Horwitz are the only other above average batters, IKF and Turner are gone, IKF was injured anyways and Horwitz has only played in 50 games. Their 9th out of 15 teams in the AL offensively, and I gotta think they'd be close to last without him.
  7. AMS528
    Vlad should wind up with 20 bWAR by the end of the year, and I do feel like people look at that for HOF cases cause they have all the HOF numbers etc.
  8. AMS528
    I agree it would be annoying to him, both because I do think he cares about performing, and also if he had done this the past two years, either he'd have signed a ridiculous extension already or would be expecting a 400 million dollar deal as a free agent. I've noted this before but I do think now we can consider last year an outlier with some seriously bad luck, given the difference from his expected results. He would have otherwise probably have had a season between a 130 to 140 wRC+.
  9. AMS528
    It's been about 3.5 months now of a tear and his wRC+ is 166. The same as it was in 2021. He's all the way back.
  10. AMS528
    I think it's a bit basic to continually pound the expected hitting numbers, but after Vlad's numbers started matching his expected ones, I think it feels more reasonable. In which case it should really apply to Kirk who has to be one of the biggest underperformers in baseball this year. WOBA of .282 and expected to be .336. If he was at his expected or even underperforming it by like twenty points instead, he's worth at least 2-2.5 WAR already and we're talking about one of the better catchers in baseball. He's been better after a terrible start, and he's continued to improve the last couple of weeks.
  11. AMS528
    On that note, Vlad's is up to 58th percentile. Which is a huge increase from last year and even higher than it was in 2021. Interestingly his actual launch angle (6.9) is still a decent bit lower than both last year and and 2021.
  12. AMS528
    Yeah agreed. No discussions about where we'd trade him to as well though. Bo's future earnings also really hugely depend on next year. He's not Baez, and I think his ability to make contact is obviously much better, but a free swinging SS, who is not great defensively might raise some questions for GMs. There's like a 150 million dollar potential difference for him based on how next year goes.
  13. AMS528
    Couple more, and the last one was his last comment. I wouldn't think Rogers would close the tap at this point, make no sense to do that.
  14. AMS528
    I think roughly 14 pages worth of these posts are about Vlad and there's been maybe 1 page of discussion about Bo, which is interesting. He's had a horrible year, but he also has the better history of performance. Despite that there's essentially there's zero hope, and a significantly reduced desire to sign him to an extension. And his year has been so miserable no one even wants to come up with potential trades that might happen in the winter. Tough times.
  15. AMS528
    Here is Blake Murphy's thread to follow regarding Shapiro's remarks. A few bits so far: That definitely does feel like Atkins is back although I would not expect him to say anything too strong while the season is still going. It is I think a real stretch to say the team has done a good job developing position players. They've been ok at best. Of the Bisons, Schneider has fallen off significantly and always appeared like a pretty precarious profile. Clement is maybe a borderline starter and is already 28. Horwitz might have a shot if he sticks at 2B. Jimenez and Barger have not shown much yet.
  16. AMS528
    I think he could play the outfield pretty well given the opportunity (cause why couldn't he at this point), obviously he can't cause of the health of his arm. There's a Mike Trout 10-11 WAR season in Ohtani if he ever got to do that. Comforting for the Dodgers to know that if he can't pitch for whatever reason forever in the future they can easily just decide to stick him in the OF. I like the idea that if everything possible broke right for Ohtani, and you got one of his better hitting/pitching/baserunning seasons together and let him play the field for part of the season he'd be worth like 15 WAR. Most talented baseball player in history. Very skeptical there's any reasonable argument against now.
  17. AMS528
    A question here, would that be because of his very good minor league numbers? Just his major league numbers would show that it was a reasonable (but not necessarily the likelier) probability. The season before his expected numbers would have him right around like 90 wRC+, and the season before he was better and his batted/expected lined right up at his 100 wRC+.
  18. AMS528
    Moreno is not terribly overweight and a soulcrushingly bad baserunner which I think is an additional difference that's fair to point out. He has graded out as a completely neutral runner this year which if Kirk ever does we would consider a miracle. Also this doesn't say much to me, because I actually like Kirk in spite of that, and he's a much better hitter than his numbers show. His power is definitely better. I don't know if he has the endurance to play enough games to not need a solid backup, but Kirk can be a good enough hitter to be worth like 3 WAR in a season easily. Kirk is a good player with limitations and he'll be better next year. I believe in his steamer600 projections. Also am entirely aware Moreno was temporarily #1 prospect, but doesn't make it not technically true that we didn't trade away a #1 prospect. But that's a fair point, we did not trade away the #1 prospect. And he would still be very valuable as a trade piece at #12.
  19. AMS528
    Moreno is a 24 year old catcher with 2.4 fWAR in 86 games, who is really good defensively, who walks at a solid rate and strikes out very little. If he develops a touch of additional power, he has a shot at putting out really great overall numbers for a few years. Varsho is an amazing unmatched fielder, but he is a bad hitter, is probably going to continue to be a bad hitter, is 28 years old not 24, and becomes a free agent 2 years earlier than Moreno. This isn't going to go down as a terrible trade value wise and shouldn't because Varsho is such a great fielder that he has a floor there, but you cannot be surprised, and you should probably expect that this is going to be a conversation for as long as Moreno succeeds. We obtained him for the #1 prospect in baseball, and that prospect is succeeding.
  20. AMS528
    I think it's fair to look past his first couple of years. He was very young to start and young hitters are often inconsistent/struggle. He's been above that mark 3 of the last 4 years and more importantly he's had a 166, 133, and 159 wrc+ in those three seasons. Those are very good hitting seasons. The one year he was below that mark was the only season of the four where he also significantly underperformed his peripheral stats. I do think we can consider that at least partially unlucky. He does suck on the field and may get moved to DH. But there's been some reconsideration on the penalty DHs get when calculating WAR. DHs are probably more valuable than they've been measured as, so that's an additional consideration.
  21. AMS528
    I think I would say top five is Judge, Ohtani, Soto, Alvarez, Freeman just based on consistency. Vlad is in that next five cause he hasn't shown the consistency yet.
  22. AMS528
    Vlad is now rapidly approaching his 2021 season hitting wise even with his terrible start.
  23. AMS528
    We better be hoping Gausman can bounce back next year cause this pitching staff is highly inadequate if he's not elite.
  24. AMS528
    I would love to get him in addition to Vlad and maybe shift Vlad to DH, but his best hitting season is like I noted above, worse than 2022 Vlad that everyone was annoyed by.
  25. AMS528
    High failure rate on those signings, but even by those standards, he's been worse than basically the entire top 20 list of international signings that year.
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