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AMS528

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Everything posted by AMS528

  1. AMS528
    Schneider being legit again would go a long way in accomplishing this.
  2. AMS528
    Yes that would. The other thing we would have to measure about Santander replacing Bo's offensive production is that we're comparing three things there. Santander's production subbing in for Bo's. But that's partially dependent on Bo's replacement and the comparison then is also the production we received while Santander didn't play. Chunks of those ABs in the field went to Schneider/Barger/Lukes/Loperfido while Springer has taken a lot of those DH ABs. Like the collective hitting numbers that went to Santander's missed playtime has probably been net exceptional, well above average at least. When we're talking the overall production from Bo being replaced, it won't just line up to Santander subbing in that production. Because the Jays depth has been so good, unless the replacements (say it's Gimenez and Clement mostly) hit above average in the way Santander's replacements did, you're not going to be succesfully replacing the collective offense.
  3. AMS528
    Vladdy's xBA is wild. It's .326 which is miles ahead of second which is Bo at .307. Removing Bo the next is Marte at .304. The difference between Vlad and Marte of .022 is the same as the difference between Marte (3rd) and Rooker (38th). I like to post these things to soothe people who might be worried about Vladdy's production over the next few years. There's practically no one else in the league who makes solid contact with the baseball on such a regular basis. I like to believe that there's a very solid floor of performance that exists for him.
  4. AMS528
    I just don't know if we can rely on the idea of Santander providing that production. I hope he does, but he's lost a year, heading into his 30s which is a bad time to have that happen. It's a good thing his AAV is low, helps if he can't make it back to being productive.
  5. AMS528
    It's one of those skills where depending on the game can be awesome, or very frustrating. Awesome when you can chase a pitcher just cause you got them to waste so many pitches by fouling them off etc. Frustrating when it goes bad because everyone put the ball in play for an out after 2 pitches. It's been significantly more good than bad this year though.
  6. AMS528
    DRS must have loved the splits from Vladdy yesterday. He's up to 4.3 bWAR. Good for 8th among position players in the AL. Actually I don't even know if DRS takes into account 1B receiving ability. Do any of the defensive metrics consider it?
  7. AMS528
    Ah sucks Vladdy couldn't get that one. It was would have been a real nice catch.
  8. AMS528
    I don't really get this. If he started hot and then had some slower. 790 OPS months would that have been better? I think it's just something that would have mentally made people feel better but in reality it's irrelevant. Also his statcast page is unimpeachable. It is as good as it gets and I don't know how "a couple of hot weeks" comes into that. He's hit the ball very well all year long, and he has also done great in terms of contact, getting on base and not chasing bad pitches regularly, also all year long. If anything it's that the results are now matching the process and contact quality. Hot streak is what Heineman and Loperfido are doing. He's up to 3.5 fWAR. Probably 4 BWAR. I think he ends with a 5 WAR season which is nothing to complain about.
  9. AMS528
    I think I saw it change beginning of last month, but for a 1B, comparing him to the other qualified guys this year he's basically right in the middle really, tied for 10th out of the 21 qualified guys this year. Will gladly take that. Also DRS absolutely loves him which is why his bWAR is much higher.
  10. AMS528
    Vlad and Bo have to do some heavy lifting today.
  11. AMS528
    Having stared at Vlads statcast page all year, it's now at the point where even the launch angle is league average and every single other thing is very good to elite. His process numbers are elite, what happens when the ball hits the bat is elite. The results are the only thing somewhat lagging, and I really don't think there's anything besides bad luck to blame it on. Edit: Jesus sorry no idea why the image is so large.
  12. AMS528
    3/5 with 2 HRs and a double yesterday. Literally right on time.
  13. AMS528
    I had to read it twice as well. C'mon people have some sense here.
  14. AMS528
    Vlad definitely deserves credit for improving the baserunning and fielding this year. He's giving himself a better floor, and now that he's shown a bit more power the last couple of weeks, he's tracking for a 4.5 WAR season. He gets hot and it's a 5 WAR season, he is only ok the rest of the way maybe it's a 4 WAR season. Like others have said nothing to complain about here. Especially if he hits 5 WAR.
  15. AMS528
    I hope I'm being overly generous with the 10 year timeline. People have some awareness of it now, but 10 years would be a long time for the damage to add up.
  16. AMS528
    There has been a real increase in the number of guys under investigation for this across a few sports. I feel like a decade down the line we're going to be looking at the combination of having sports gambling legalized and also easily accessed one press bets off of the apps as a pretty damaging combination. There needs to be some kind of friction there, so it's only the truly degen gamblers who go to far, as opposed to like 10-15% of young men that's been reported.
  17. AMS528
    In a decade basically. We'll see how this season goes but 2015 was probably more fun once the team got going cause it was ridiculously loaded and hitter heavy, and the addition of Tulo and Price. A good enough reason to make a reasonably big add this year.
  18. AMS528
    Yeah people forget how wild that deal was because Happ had a second go around with us where he was a stud. But we traded him away first before that happened. Kevin Comer must have looked so bad, because we had just handed him a huge bonus from what I remember and immediately gave up on him. Also we had just an endless amount of pitching prospects to trade back then. AA's strength for sure (and even in Atlanta generally).
  19. AMS528
    Early in the season practically everyone on this board (including me and the other usually pragmatic posters) were tearing this team apart, declaring Atkins and co entirely incompetent. And then things changed, and now we're all happy, and everyone has forgotten all the dumb things we (again including myself) said early on. We said we had no farm, our players sucked and we were an expensive team going nowhere. I say this because it is entirely possible Vlad goes on a heater for two months and his numbers wind up completely fine. I think everyone knows the last few years (we'll see how many of them) will suck, but I really think it's early to decide that it sucks now.
  20. AMS528
    I don't think he's going to be the worst contract in baseball when he does provide a really steady floor of performance even if he's underperforming the contract overall. And I do expect him to continue that with some performances that match his xWOBA as well. He's still probably going to put up around 3.5-4 WAR this year. He's made improvements this year as a baserunner and defensively where he's gone from the bottom of the league to acceptable, his sprint speed is still completely reasonable (and he can ramp it up to pretty fast as he did a couple of games ago). He seems dedicated to not letting go of his health. His plate discipline is good etc. Is it a good contract? Miles from it. Is it going to be the worst contract in baseball by next year? No cause like I said he's got he has a good floor with his bat (and if he maintains his defensive/baserunning improvements).
  21. AMS528
    I think it was pretty widely expected that even if the Orioles didn't spend, they would at least maintain being good on the strength of their young stars, plus some of their other highly ranked prospects panning out. It is crazy how that has played out. Coby Mayo has been bad in the bigs and mediocre this year in the minors so far. Kjerstad is now 26 and has been awful. Probably not a major leaguer the way he's looked. Rutschman went from being a superstar in his rookie year to now an ok starter, but you could certainly do better than how he's looked on both ends. Figured he could have a bounceback year but hasn't happened. Gunnar Henderson is still quite good, but he's taken a step back as well from being one of the best in baseball. Jackson Holliday is very young and could still be a star for sure, but for now he's a decent starter. Pitching wise they've had some struggles with any potential young starters as well. No guarantees in baseball.
  22. AMS528
    There's probably some combination of factors here cause Gausman's numbers have not benefited (not that he's a shitballer but that's he way underperforming his peripherals and is most a two pitch guy).
  23. AMS528
    Yeah it's been a while I think if you were to come up with the list of best Jays starters since Doc left, there's basically no one with any kind of sustained performance, just guys with fairly good numbers for a couple of years here and there. According to fWAR, Stroman and Gausman top the list since Doc was traded, and then you've got Happ, Buehrle, Romero, Estrada as other guys who had more than a single season of good work. Beyond that's it's just guys who had a single really good season like Sanchez, Manoah, Ray and Ryu. Gausman was the closest to elite for those two years out of that set. Although I did find Buehrle in his best season pretty soothing to watch.
  24. AMS528
    Wouldn't Kelly basically be our best starter by FIP/xFIP by a pretty large margin?
  25. AMS528
    Gausman and Berrios are opposites cause Berrios somehow manages to keep runs of the board, and Gausman cannot at this point. Gaus is certainly better than this, but the 2022-2023 version is long gone now I think. We've gotta try for Peralta, and if not than Merrill Kelly has been really good this year as another pitcher to try and chase.
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