The Iceman

Teams have gotten smarter/tougher on players who have crossed the line with domestic violence. How about if I told you we could sign a 27 year old pitcher who is 100% healthy. In 315 MLB innings he has 155 saves, 348 Ks, and a .905 WHIP. In Japan last year he was 4-1 with 10 saves, and a 0.91 ERA and .607 WHIP He goes by the name Roberto and used to pitch for the Jays.

https://razzball.com/toronto-blue-jays-top-10-prospects-for-2023-fantasy-baseball/ Pretty good BJ prospects for fantasy purposes take from the folks at Razzball

Pitchers: Manoah Gausman Bassit Berrios Kikuchi Romano Swanson Bass Garcia Mayza Cimber Pearson White Catcher Jansen Kirk INF. Vlad Espinal Bo Chapman Varsho KK Springer Merrifield Biggio Lukes Lopez

Would Zack Britton be considered an upgrade on Mayza? Maybe it is just me but I do not want Mayza pitching important innings. i feel he can't handle them. Fine for the 6-7th inning. Britton is still 34 and might be able to pitch some late innings for a team.

Law's take This take may be insufficiently warm for the hot stove, but the trade that sent Daulton Varsho from Arizona to Toronto for Gabriel Moreno and Lourdes Gurriel might be good for both sides. Varsho had a quiet breakout in 2022, hitting .235/.302/.443 in hitter-friendly Phoenix but playing elite defense in the outfield while also going behind the plate for 31 games. He’s not a good defensive catcher but is a plus runner and athlete who was way above league average in center field and right field last year, racking up 18 Outs Above Average and 16 runs prevented by Statcast’s measures — ranking fifth and third in baseball in those categories, respectively. He’s become a fairly extreme dead-pull hitter, sacrificing contact and some contact quality for more power. He hit 27 homers last year, a career-high at any level, but it came with the highest strikeout rate he’s posted except for his debut in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. In exchange for Varsho, who has four years of team control remaining and is arbitration-eligible for the first time this year as a super-two player, the Diamondbacks get the Blue Jays’ No. 1 prospect going into 2022, catcher Gabriel Moreno, and outfielder Lourdes Gurriel. Moreno is a super-athletic catcher who offers plus defense and a high-contact approach that probably won’t produce much power but should lead to strong on-base percentages because he makes so much line-drive contact. He’s got an above-average arm, blocks and receives well, and has made huge strides in working with pitchers given his age. He’s very aggressive at the plate, rarely walking or striking out because his plate coverage is so good, although it’s possible he’ll have to make adjustments in that area against big-league pitching. He’s ready to take over as the regular catcher in Arizona, which would make Carson Kelly a backup or a potential trade piece, although it might be two or three years before we see Moreno get to that 4-5 WAR ceiling. Gurriel had a disappointing 2022 season as all of his power evaporated, but he underwent surgery after the season to address a broken hamate bone, which could easily explain the power outage. He’s a free agent after 2023, and could give the D-Backs an offensive boost in left field, allowing them to trade center fielder Alek Thomas, or could be traded himself. He needs to hit for some more thump to be even a passable regular, as he’s a below-average defender anywhere, even in left field, and doesn’t walk. The trade would appear to help both clubs, since the Blue Jays did have a surplus behind the plate, and the Diamondbacks have a surplus in the outfield that’s only going to get worse over time. That said, I think I prefer Arizona’s end of the deal, as it took on a bit more risk to get a lot more ceiling – and it gets six years of Moreno versus Toronto getting four of Varsho. Arizona is still building toward contention and is better situated to take on that risk to get a potential superstar in Moreno, while the Blue Jays may have decided to go with the surer thing in their Alejandro Kirk/Danny Jansen catching tandem. Kirk played 78 games at catcher last year and 51 at DH, hitting .285/.372/.415 for a 3.9 rWAR/3.8 fWAR season. Jansen caught 63 games, with three starts at DH, and hit .260/.339/.516 for 2.9 rWAR/2.6 fWAR. Jansen has never been able to stay healthy for a full season, reaching 400 plate appearances only one time in his professional career, in 2017, and I’m not confident at all that he could hold this kind of production if he played every day. He’s in the perfect spot, with Kirk the better hitter and better able to handle the higher workload. If you’re the Blue Jays, even if you completely believe in Moreno’s potential, the odds of him outproducing the Kirk/Jansen duo in 2023 are just not that high. There were only two 5-WAR catchers in baseball last year per Fangraphs, J.T. Realmuto and the recently traded Sean Murphy. Kirk and Jansen produced 6.4 fWAR between them — although that includes Kirk’s DH time — but even if we conservatively set their total catching value at 5 WAR, you can see how high a bar that is for Moreno to clear right now. I believe he’ll get there in time, but the Blue Jays value winning in 2023-24 over the long term, while Arizona has the luxury of patience and can bet on Moreno becoming that 5-win catcher, even if it doesn’t come for a few years. The D-Backs have the better chance to end up with more total value out of the trade, but the Blue Jays are clearly a better team right now than they were before the deal, as Varsho is at least a 3-win upgrade over Gurriel if we just assume he takes over in a corner; and if Kevin Kiermaier gets hurt the Jays now have a viable alternative in center. Each of these teams had a surplus of good players and made a very old-fashioned sort of trade that leaves both clubs better off. What a concept.

This trade made the Jays stronger dealing from a position of strength and excess. Looking at the $$$ FA OFs were going for makes this a good trade for the Jays. Lets see where they reinvest the $$$ they had earmarked for an OF. I see DV as our starting CF for 1/3rd of our games this coming year and full time in 2024. Just listened to Ben Nicholson Smith say DV was the #1 defensive OF in baseball last year.

RUN PREVENTION is our focus apparently

just reading an article on The Athletic and guess who had the #1 rated curveball in baseball last year? Chris Bassitt Curveball @ 74 MPH 178.4 When faced with the fact that this was his best pitch by Stuff+, at the time, Chris Bassitt didn’t think that necessarily meant he should throw it more. “If I throw it more, then they’ll sit on it,” he said when we spoke about it in 2021. Well, Bassitt threw it twice as often in 2022 than he did in 2021, and was using it nearly a fifth of the time by the end of the season. His whiff rate went down, yes, but his slugging percentage also went down, all the way to .205 last season. He only gave up three doubles on 421 curves thrown — sounds like a pretty good pitch even if it reads as a lollipop on the GIF machine. If you’re still skeptical, you have a right to be. An experimental newer version of Stuff+, which has been trained on more recent data, and has a slightly different approach to defining the primary fastball, has Bassitt’s curve as above-average but not elite.

Wonder what speed a guy that throws 101 MPH throws his change-up?

So you want the 2 time silver slugger award winner replaced by a better hitter do you...good luck with that.

There is talk Senga might not stick as a SP due to control issues...lots of risk. Check out these lines 1010 IP- 2.77 ERA 1.180 WHIP or 1089 IP- 2.59 ERA 1.115 WHIP One guy is Senga The other is a SP/RP for the Jays that isn't too popular in Toronto.

YEAH, I am an old dad. i will take this one Steinbrenner demanded Doyle Alexander the soft throwing veteran be released. He claimed that he was going to kill an infielder he threw so many awful/fat pitches. Can you imagine an owner saying that today? Anyways he was claimed by the Jays as a 32 year old and finished the season with the team. He came back as a 33 year old and had back to back 260+ innings piched each season. Garnered some MVP votes each season. Alexander was the winning pitcher in 1995...edit 1985 clinching the first ever penant for the Jays (Before wild card). Doyle pitched a complete game 5 hitter and if you have ever seen George Bell fall to his knees in LF after making the routine catch...that was Doyle on the mound. The next season Doyle was trade 1 for1 for Duane Ward. Ward was a no name young starting pitcher that didn't strike anyone out and ended a few minor league seasons with more BB than Ks. He started for the Jays only twice as he transitioned him to the BP. He started to find his control, and also developed one of the nastiest sliders in the league. At the height of his Jays career batters would rather face Henke than Ward and he was a massive part of the teams success. And there you have the rest of the story.

And KK we will grow to appreciate hustles up the line every single ball constantly putting the pressure on the other team.

Not much chatter about FA Jurickson Profar but as a switch hitter a good fit for our lineup IMO.

Jays pass in rule 5. Didn't lose any players. Ryan Noda went #2 to Oakland.

I believe texas signing 2 UFA pitchers helps the BJ cause to bring back Chicken Strips. I had him earmarked for Texas being an Texas A & M alumni. Maybe we can do a 2 for 1 with Stripling and Wacha two ex college team mates reunited.

Why would the player want a 1 year deal...it is Boras. It will be a 1 year deal for too high $$$ with a player opt out for year 2. If he sux he stays, if he is good he opts out.

Funny that Teo was our best hitter against Seattle in the playoffs.

For one year of teo Teo 8.4 value Swanson 10.4 and Macko 5.4

Pittsburgh has their own young stud prospect behind the plate in Henry Davis. Their #1 prospect in fact.

I am sure you could trade Wood and Kikuchi for Manoah and Urias

I like Lukes but the time to roster him would have been last year. Dude turns 29 next summer.

Hall of famer Pudge Rodriguez is a decent body type compare for Kirk. In fairness catcher is the only position that you can play as a chunk. You do not need to be fast or fit, it is the one position where you can play without issue until 35+ years old. If the Jays move a catcher I would roll with jansen and Kirk. The known commodities. And trade the kid who also has the highest trade value attached to him. Hopefully flip him for a high ceiling CF+.

Are you saying Teo has ZERO value? In what universe would this be??

Shelby Miller LOL. Fire the GM that signs him expecting MLB calibre innings at 32 years old. 10.69 8.59 9.24 6.43 His last 4 season era, although he is trending better I guess.