wk680

Agree, but it is at least worth looking at as one thing to consider in evaluating the overall performance. And also I am not even really sure what all situations they (baseball-reference) are including in the 'high leverage' category. At least RISP, 2 outs is clear.

I take it you are not a fan of the concept of 'clutch hitting'

2012: 522 PA, 119 OPS+ 2013: 657 PA, 123 OPS+ 2014: 401 PA, 75 OPS+ 2015: 639 PA, 127 OPS+ 2016: 618 PA, 108 OPS+ 5 year total 2857 PA 'weighted' average OPS+ = (522/2837)(119) + (657/2837)(123) + (401/2837)(75) + (639/2837)(127) + (618/2837)(108) =- 113 turns out the simple average OPS+ for those 5 years is 110 , so about the same. I am mostly looking at the total 199 RBI over the past 2 seasons. Also consider these 'clutch' stats for 2016: RISP, 2 out: .296/.367/.620 high leverage: .260/.322/.500

Whoops:o, meant Royals 2015 WS, which included Morales. He had a line of .255/.309/.510 with 4 HR and 10 RBI in 16 games during that postseason run.

I agree about him not having to prove he can perform as a DH. With a Holiday (or Beltran), you would just be taking it as an article of faith that the transition will go smoothly. Also I did an average of his OPS+ for the past 5 seasons, weighted for the number of PAs in those 5 seasons, and I got a weighted average OPS+ of 113. I noticed this statement from the Shi Davidi article: "He also has a reputation as a strong and positive clubhouse presence." And this from a guy who helped lead the Royals to 2016 WS. So that may add some intangible value.

"Kinzer compares Encarnacion's value to that of Chris Davis, who earned a seven-year deal with the Baltimore Orioles last offseason worth $161 million." The problem with that comparison is that Davis signed the contract entering his age 30 season. EE will be entering his age 34 season. Anything more than a 4 yr/90m (same AAV as Davis got) will be overpaying. With a player who is mid-30s and has a track record of being injury prone, is already a big risk even at 4/90.

I was just thinking about the small possibility of the Jays spending big and possibly bumping up against the luxury tax limit (which I believe was $189M in 2016). Then it dawned on me that they are probably going to have to factor in the AAV of Upton's contract for luxury tax purposes even though they were given that bag of cash with which to pay him in 2017. Or am I off track here ? Anyway I guess it won't matter since they won't likely go above $170M actual spend. Although if some of that was only 1 year commitments........

Apparently, he is going to hold a 'showcase' any day now. There is going to be a whole lot of interest, considering his track record. Someone may be willing to overpay (pay according to past performance before the elbow issue affected his 2015 numbers), but obviously I don't see the Jays being that one. Might be nice to get him for a 1 year with a vesting option for a 2nd year http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/11/greg-holland-set-for-showcase-within-the-next-week.html

Based on his overall body of work, I see 2/26 as way too rich for Saunders. As you suggested, more like 3/20 is in the right range. If the Jays make the QO, I see 3 possible outcomes: 1) he accepts, which is bad for the Jays BUT if ownership agrees to at least a 1 year big bump in payroll for a championship run could be OK because it is a 1 and done thing. Remember he did hit pretty well in the post season, so there's that. 2) it diminishes his value on the open market, and gives the Jays more bargaining power to get him for a good 2-3 year contract, something like the 3/20 I mentioned above. 3) he signs with a bottom 10 team which only needs to give up a 2nd round pick as compensation. My bet would be on outcome 2. This guy was thrilled to be playing for the home country team, and I think nothing has changed about that. ETA: sorry I just realized after posting, that 3/20 doesn't make sense when a guy can just take 1/17 and then go from there. So yeah NO QO to Saunders makes the most sense

Yes I think he jammed it on a head first slide. I noticed Dexter Fowler stole 2nd feet first in game 5 last night and the broadcasters commented on how he is one of the minority of players who still slide that way these days. I guess there is also the possibility of spraining an ankle on the feet first slide, so maybe both techniques are roughly equal for injury risk potential

Would you care to elaborate on how you see this concept pertaining to the Jays' roster needs and associated payroll expenditures for 2017 and beyond? Or are you thinking more about how this relates to COL? What I am seeing is a lot of money invested in veterans like Tulo, Martin, Donaldson, Estrada, Happ, and Liriano for 2017. And there appears to be a small window of opportunity to go all in for 2017 by adding a couple more proven impact players. Is EE the answer? Is CarGo part of the answer? Is sitting on your cash instead of investing in more aging veterans and building toward the future, with the possibility of overachieving in 2017 (like Indians did this season), the way to go? At least with a CarGo, you are only on the hook for 1 year and can QO him (as Brownie mentioned) if you trade for him before the season starts.

So how about this idea: with all the talk of the Jays acquiring Jay Bruce, there is another name out there that has gone relatively unmentioned. That being Carlos Gonzalez. He will be in the final year of his contract at $20M. The Rockies have another lefthanded OFer in 22 yo David Dahl who just turned in a .315/.359/.500 in 63 games and 237 PA. There is rumblings that they have 4 potential everyday OFers (Dahl, Gonzalez, Blackmon, and Parra) but no regular 1Bman. So I read the speculation is they may try playing CarGo at 1B. With CarGo in final year of his contract, I wonder if they agree to move him for something along the lines of: Smoak (1Bman), Upton + cash (cheap 4th OFer), and 1-2 mid level prospects. That team is not shaping up to be a contender anyway, and their pitching (27th best ERA in 2016) is looking to be in a rebuilding mode. For a reference point, the year they made the WS in 2007, they had the 14th ranked ERA. Admittedly, I may be way underestimating what COL would demand for CarGo, especially as he was just named a finalist for Gold Glove award. And they may see more strategic value in trading him at the 2017 deadline.

Yeah I see what you mean. Looked at another way: if Jays owed Upton ~$5.1M for 2016 (1/3 of season) and 16.45M for 2017, that's $21.55 M total. Subtract the reported $17M that accompanied him from SD, means Jays are only on the hook for a total of $4.55 M. So if they front loaded how much of that they paid with their own money this season, the $17M they got from SD is largely intact and, as you say, he is almost free for 2017. Appears to make him a nice trade chip for someone looking to pick up a cheap roster piece.

Upton had a reported salary of $15.45M in 2016 and $16.45M in 2017. Since the Jays got him with about 2 months to go in 2016, they pay him about 1/3 or $5.1M. Now if the article was true about a $17M pot of cash being sent over from SD, I assume Jays could use it at their discretion. If they allocated 1/4 of that money to 2016, that's 4.25M, and leaves 12.75M to go toward his 2017 salary. So 16.45 - 12.75 = 3.7M. I guess I put 4.5 M since that is roughly midway between my calculation and what baseballreference has (16.45 -11.45 paid by SD)

Here is what I have: Tulo 20M Martin 20M Donaldson 17M Smoak 4.1M Upton ~4.5M* Travis ~600k Pillar ~600k Carrera ~1.2M (arb est.) Barney ~1.6M (arb est.) Goins ~600k Estrada 14.5M Happ 13M Liriano 13.7M Sanchez ~600k Stroman ~3.5M (arb est.) Osuna ~600k Biagini ~600k Grilli 3M Loup ~1.2M (arb est.) ------------------- TOTAL: 120.9M for 10 position players and 9 pitchers. Need to add 3 relievers, 2nd catcher, DH/1B, and an OFer * Using the info from the article posted earlier in the thread that SD paid a lump sum $17M to cover the remaining salary commitment for 2 months of 2016 and all of 2017 and assuming it is applied proportionately.

I found this article from Apr 4, 2016 with opening day payrolls (data from Spotrac): http://www.businessinsider.com/major-league-baseball-opening-day-payrolls-2016-4 The Jays were 13th, with a payroll of $140.6M 10th place was Orioles at $147.9M 6th place was Cubs at $167.4 M So just based on 2016, we are looking at around $150-170M to be a 6-10 range payroll. I have the Jays currently at $121 M including Arb estimates from MLBtraderumors dot com and salary data from baseballreference dot com (includes $3M to Grilli, 600k each for 6 preArb players and excluding Thole). So that leaves them only $30-50M to work with. Especially considering the prodigious TV viewership and attendance from last half 2015 and all of 2016, I think the case could be made to ownership to go BIG for 2017. It's like the Jays at the end of 1991: on the precipice, but need to bring in some big guns to get over the hump and bring home that championship. BUT, needless to say, the key is doing it without tying yourself to some longer term contracts on older players. Maybe Matt Holliday could be brought in to DH on a 1-2 year deal and be 2017's Dave Winfield.

Do you think Tellez would be significant enough? It makes sense since he is 1Bman and would be blocked by Votto, although you can rotate him and Votto using DH. Or he could be sent off in another trade later (maybe as part of a package to get back an OFer).

Would you still feel that way if you knew Rogers was committed to $180M opening day payroll indefinitely starting in 2017? The minimum commitment for Votto is $177M over 7 years (final year of 2024 is a $20M with $7M buyout), so averages right around $25M per. If Reds eat 40 %, you are getting one of the top hitters in MLB for only $15M. He could turn out to be like Beltran, Winfield, Molitor, etc. who were/are productive up to age 40. If I am the Reds, I would rather go ahead and keep him rather than pay $10M a year to have him play for someone else. I thought teams only did that to unload players who were underperforming (like BJ Upton, Kemp, Wells, etc.) BUT if Reds really want out from the salary commitment, I think you may not need to give up much in a trade to acquire him. It would be like the Jays did with Liriano. If the Reds are motivated and the Jays don't do it, some other big market team will. The only thing is Votto has full trade veto power and may, like teammate Phillips, use it.

The more the Indians achieve against the powerhouse Cubs, the less bad the Red Sox and Jays look for the way they were dispatched by the Indians. Also, the way Cleveland's bullpen continues to carry them in this post-season (both Miller and Allen have been lights out), the more apparent that a strong bullpen is a MAJOR key to post-season success. Top free agent relievers out there must be sitting there watching this with a HUGE grin!

Well at least Smoak would give them a bench bat with some pop, but no versatility on D. Maybe they would rather have Upton. At least he has some speed. I'm still hoping he can contribute in a meaningful way if he ends up staying.

Yeah he got BABIP'd just like the Royals did all last post season, but he also walked some guys and hit a batter to end his night. Rough outing all around even though he didn't pitch bad. Indians are just pesky. Bailed out by an inning ending DP induced by Grimm with bases loaded.

Well, after the called strikes in that 1st inning, it is nice to see the Indians getting some of the same medicine the Jays had to swallow in the ALCS. What goes around has a habit of coming back around.

I think if you are the Indians going into a slug fest at Wrigley with the wind blowing out, Tomlin (one of the worst fly ball pitchers in MLB with lots of HR surrendered) as your starter, and up against the NL ERA leader; you have much bigger concerns than the ability of your left fielder.

I am puzzled about a trade of Smoak to LAD. They already have A. Gonzalez as regular 1B, and coincidentally is about as slow a base runner (saw Gonzalez described as the 'human sloth' on a Dodgers discussion board). So I guess Smoak would just be there as back-up 1B and pinch hitter? It appears Ethier is $17.5M for 2017 with a $17.5M 'vesting' option for 2018 ($2.5M buyout). Does this vesting mean he needs to have played a certain number of games in 2017 for it to vest, and otherwise they can drop him with no further financial commitment; but if it does vest he can still be bought out for $2.5M? One other interesting thing is he is listed as 9.1 years service time so just short of 5/10 trade veto rights. Although his contract, like many, may have teams excluded.

Well, Pompey is still fairly young (turns 24 in Dec.), so maybe they will give him one more year to prove himself at AAA and later in the year at the Big League level. OTOH, now may be the time to cut bait if he can be included in a package to acquire an impact player to contribute to another championship run in 2017. Who knows, maybe being on his home town team is just not going to work for him, and he would benefit from another environment in which he does not need to deal with the extra pressure of living up to the additional expectations.