wk680

Yes but the other problem is being on the LHH side of a platoon, the player gets less than half the AB's. Some players may not thrive in that role, especially one who has been an everyday player throughout his career. Upton's ego is taking a big hit here, and the possibility that he doesn't have his head and heart in it seems pretty high.

But the maple leaf on the logo was there from day one when the Jays became the second Canadian-based MLB team. Of course the decision to include it in the revival of the original logo may have been influenced by this being the only remaining Canadian team. Also when you 'cringe' at the idea of this being Canada's team, it seems like a dismissal of all the fans outside of Southern Ontario. As for the red jerseys, I agree keep them for special occasions only (Canada Day and Victoria Day).

And keep Carrera on the bench as backup OF/pinch runner, or go with Pompey ? Maybe they give Pompey a chance to earn a spot in spring training or, as suggested, Harold Ramirez could have a shot to come in and steal a spot. More likely Ramirez starts the year at AAA, but everyone thought the same with Travis going into 2015.

Yes and there may be internal possibilities with Harold Ramirez and Pompey in the OF.

A strong 4 with Smoak !!?? Also, the consensus of this board appears to be that Carrera is slightly above useless and Upton is garbage. Add to that the likelihood of no-bat Jimenez as backup catcher. Seems more like a bench with a strong 1 (Barney) and 3 scrubs.

I believe the Jays rotation had the most innings pitched in 2016. If they repeat that in 2017 (big if) why the need for 7 relievers? Also, if you have relievers with options and position players without, you can shuttle some of your relievers back and forth. Needless to say, failing to go with the extra (26th) roster spot was a big mistake. It would have allowed to keep the 7 man pen without such a thin 4 man bench.

OK professor, what is so wrong with the idea of a 6 man bullpen and a 5 man bench? How often does that 7th reliever end up just riding the pine anyway.

Serious about what !?

Yes I had a bad source that said it was 3 years needed to refuse the assignment. It seems the only way one of Goins, Smoak, Upton or Carrera won't be odd man out is if the Jays went with a 6 man bull pen and 5 man bench. And that's assuming no other additions or the likes of Pompey making the squad. Of course injuries can also occur.

Someone is going to be the odd man out, even if Pompey doesn't make it. I guess Goins is out of options, so the only way to keep him without being on the active roster is to do an outright assignment to AAA, which will require clearing waivers. My understanding is a player needs a total of 3+ years MLB service time to refuse that (which I think he does not have) but maybe it also depends on total time in the organization.

If JB signs with Cleveland, it is likely to be at a big discount like what they got Napoli for. He made $16M a year in a 2 year contract with Boston in 2014-15, then was forced to play for only $7M last season.

OK I see. But is there also not an approach where they take the total projected WAR of all players and add 48 to get an estimated win total? ETA: maybe the difference is in which WAR projections are being used?

Fangraphs is now projecting a total of 40.1 WAR for the Jays, including 2.9 from JB. So I believe that means 88 wins projected. By comparison they have Boston at 95, Yankees at 88, Orioles at 82, and Rays at 82. Of course all pending further acquisitions. ETA: ok the projected total team Depth Charts WAR is what I was trying to compare: RedSox 47 Jays 40 Yankees 40 Orioles 34 Rays 34

If (God forbid) he has another mediocre/injury plagued season in 2017, you will be glad it was not 2 year guaranteed. That whole draft pick value thing pales in comparison to the risk of being locked in on a washed up 37 year old with a questionable attitude.

So the Jays traded for Upton at the end of July 2016, meaning they were responsible for about 1/3 of his 2016 salary of $15.4M plus his entire 2017 salary of $16.4M, which means Jays are paying him about $22M total but received $17M from SD to put toward that. The rumors were that the Jays held all but $1M of that $17M to put towards his 2017 salary commitment, but we have no actual confirmation. If they were just spreading the $17M evenly over the combined 2016-17 seasons, they would be paying him around $3.5-4 M of their 'own' money in 2017.

The MLB.com article on Bautista states: "The Blue Jays also have plenty of money to spend with current projected salaries of $135 million, not including Bautista, and a 2017 payroll that is expected to be in the range of $160 million to $165 million." That number of $135M matches the updated total on the first post of the offseason thread, in which Upton accounts for only $1M (the remainder of his salary being covered with the money they obtained from SD). And the $165M total is what I recall being floated as the rumored target some weeks back. BUT if there are a lot of short term commitments on the 2017 payroll, I don't see that $165M being a hard limit. It may just be a matter of how much flexibility they want to have for in-season acquisitions and also avoiding the luxury tax threshold which will includes Upton's AAV of ~ $15M. So say the JB contract comes in at 1 yr $17M with a 2nd year mutual option of $19M or a $3M buyout. Jays are somewhat happy because they are committing maximum $36M. JB is somewhat placated because he gets at least $20M. But if he has a good season and both sides agree he could return for that $19M option. It's not like he is likely to get more for a 1 yr deal elsewhere, just a matter of whether he thinks he can get more than a 1 year deal, which at his age will be questionable. With $17M on JB, the Jays are now up to about $152 M, and $13M left in the $165M budget. They could get a reliever for $5M and an outfielder like Moss for $8M, while rolling with league minimum Jimenez at backup catcher.

Yes a lot of people now with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight want to bash the Jays FO, but at the time there were a lot of teams in the market for a DH (Astros, Rangers, Yankees, Red Sox, etc). I am sure they may have all been interested in a Morales type. Moving quickly and, as speculated, guaranteeing the 3rd year was a solid strategic move to beat their competition to the punch. And not coincidentally, they signed a guy who himself had been burned by waiting around for something better to emerge in prior free agency.

Yes ideally high WAR everyday players, SP and key relievers. But you don't necessarily need a high WAR backup/part-time outfielder, although it's obviously nice for optimizing depth.

Yes because you only have 25 roster spots and an overabundance of 1 WAR players aren't going to get it done. But you also can't have 25 players making $20M (yes that's obviously an exaggeration). Bottom line is to have a couple 0.5-1 WAR 2nd stringers making $1M can be a valuable part of an overall winning effort, so I am perplexed by the desire of so many here to throw a guy like that under the bus. Maybe the Jays are better off giving that roster spot to a guy with more upside (Pompey), but Pompey may have a higher probability of being a negative. He hasn't exactly been tearing it up in AA/AAA.

Depends on the definition of good. A guy making $1M and producing +0.7 fWAR in half season worth of playing time is not good? Yes he is not great, but he is a good 4-5th outfielder. And we all know the projections are accurate. So accurate in fact that they should just hand the Division Title to Boston on Apr. 1st. I am not here as a special pleader for any player, but I don't care for the armchair GMs on this board bashing a guy just because they are frustrated that the FO has not gone out and obtained 'better' players.

Apparently Gibbons is not the only one who is mistaken then. Or is fWAR not the gospel truth afterall?! Also, if he is no good, why did Shap/Atkins decide to keep him - they are also wrong ? Sure he is not a 3+ WAR player, but then nobody ever said he was - just a useful role player with positive contribution.

It's not like he is a bad player. He produced 0.7 fWAR in 2016 over 310 PA (0.2 fWAR over 192 PA in 2015). Then there is his 2016 playoff results (I know small sample size but still on the BIG stage against quality pitching): .303/.371/.515 in 36 PA. He certainly appears worthy of a roster spot and 200-300 PA coming off that season. He is also still on the 'right' side of 30 (turns 30 in June), so has that going for him. I think the Jays should be carrying 5 OFers, and if 2 of them are from the group Moss, Pearce and Bautista, you have actually a couple 1B/OF guys so still lots of flexibility.

I think he has trade value and could help the Jays at least as much as a Moss, but the salary is pretty big. Maybe he is worth the likes of a Drew Hutchison (were he still with the Jays), but no doubt it is laughable to consider Stroman for Cargo straight up. There is an article on the issue of the Rockies extending Cargo past this season on Fangraphs today. I wouldn't be surprised if they end up trading him and bringing in Trumbo as a replacement. Although the article mentions Cargo has been mentoring Arenado and is a fan favorite, so they may want to continue that for one more year.

Yes, it's not as if they don't already have their own 1st round pick + the comp. pick for EE. Giving up the 2nd comp. pick by signing JB, who is in real danger of being frozen out of the market altogether anyway, is a reasonable trade-off for adding a 3 WAR player to a team that is still in a window to compete now. Also, if it is only a short term deal, there is an advantage in not having much money committed, in the event he does continue to decline. I think you are right that they are more concerned about his physical state OR mental state / attitude. Remember the comments by Gibbons in an interview where he said the big turning point for the team was bringing in Martin and Donaldson in 2015 - tough guys with a real will to compete and win. That seemed like an indirect shot at JB, EE, etc. So it may be not only the FO, but also Gibbons who are not too thrilled with JB and may see him as a clubhouse/dugout problem that subtracts from the overall effort, despite his ability to produce at the plate. Also there is his bad relations with the umpires and opponents that greatly affects the team's reputation as a whole. Bottom line: the intangibles that the stats guys can not quantify are likely playing a big role here.

Possibly the stride was 'too long' before and is now more what it should have been? Yeah the inverted W approach that Sanchez falls into has been suggested to be problematic, but I think nothing definitive on that. I guess my thinking was biased by how many times I have heard Dan Plesac on MLB Network refer to Sanchez's 'smooth and easy 95 mph' and how much he thinks of the kid.