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max silver

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Everything posted by max silver

  1. max silver
    I'll throw this line of thinking right back at you. How much of a Vlad fanboy do you need to be to insist upon handing him an above market value contract that he has in no way shape or form earned with his on the field results? I fully expect if he doesn't replicate the 5 month stretch in 2024 when he was MLB's second best hitter he is going to be in for a rude awakening in free agency. MLB teams aren't as illogical as the average fan tends to be, and they are largely paying players now based on their proven ability to produce wins on the field. Vlad has been so up and down through his career and comes with more question marks and concerns than nearly every other star player in the sport.
  2. max silver
    Vlad received a huge raise after the monster 2021 season that set this all in motion. The arbitration system is largely broken in that players can still receive sizable raises despite not really earning them. Vlad is the perfect illustration of this, as he was on track to earn a sizeable raise in arbitration after his terrible 2023 season despite producing a 1.3 FWAR season. If anything it would have been perfectly fair and reasonable for him to see a pay reduction based on the poor results in 2023 and even 2022.
  3. max silver
    Go compare these guy's careers and I suspect you'd understand why Vlad hasn't earned anywhere close to what Soto was paid in free agency. Vlad has produced a total of 17 FWAR in his career in 3540 PA, good for an average of 3.125 FWAR per 650 PA. Contrast that with Soto who has produced 36.3 FWAR in 4088 PA, good for 5.77 FWAR per 650 PA. Soto has been much more consistent to the point where he has produced over twice the wins above replacement with only about a single season of extra playing time. Based on what these guys have respectively accomplished in their careers up to this point there is no conceivable way that Vlad has earned even half of what Soto was just paid. We don't even know what Vlad was asking for, but there could be a hint from David Ortiz who posted that Vlad was worth a 13 year/$585 million contract. If Vlad is actually looking for these types of numbers it should come as no surprise that the team balked at these demands.
  4. max silver
    Part of the issue last season was that the team didn't really have anyone better for the leadoff spot early on in the season. The only decent option was IKF but handing him the most plate appearances on the team would have been questionable to say the least given his long term track record of well below average offensive production.
  5. max silver
    Please don't tell me you are seriously comparing George Springer to Marcus Stroman in terms of ego and drama.
  6. max silver
    Kyle Tucker might have something to say about this if he can come anywhere close to replicating his 2024 success at the plate over a full season.
  7. max silver
    I agree that aside from trading Vlad that the only alternative at this point is to let Vlad taste free agency so that both sides can get an actual handle on what his value is to the rest of the sport. There's no sense in meeting his ridiculous asking price and negotiating against themselves as this point. If he's serious about wanting to be a Blue Jay long term they should have as much of a shot to sign him long term as anyone else.
  8. max silver
    That was my take as well. It's either pay me my number or I'm leaving. I believe he's likely going to be in for a rude awakening in free agency when he sees what teams are actually going to be willing to pay him. Opposing GM's won't be blind to the issues that a long term deal with Vlad entails.
  9. max silver
    Vlad has a tremendous arm but that doesn't really make up for the rest of his defensive deficiencies. A plus plus arm on a first baseman is mitigated to a large degree by the lower amount of throws that a first baseman needs to make.
  10. max silver
    If the choice were between signing Kirk to that type of deal or letting him reach free agency I'd let him reach free agency every single time. That just feels like a massive overpay relative to what he's accomplished up to this point. That type of AAV is limited to the elite catchers of the sport, and Kirk just isn't there yet. If he were to find a way to resurrect the bat to peak 2022 levels in combination with the elite defense he's been offering in recent seasons then *maybe* this type of deal looks a little more palatable, but as of right now that's far too much AAV for a guy who has maxed out as a 4 win player in his career season up to this point. He's never started more than 89 games behind the plate so it's a giant unknown how he will hold up with the increase in workload. With the mediocre backup options the team possesses at present the team will need to be very careful to monitor his overall workload to avoid burning him out and increasing the likelihood of an injured list stint.
  11. max silver
    Sean Murphy signed a 6 year $73 million extension with the Braves starting in his age 28 season. That is an AAV at just over $12 million. He's produced several seasons better than Kirk's peak season up to this point and doesn't carry the same type of long term bad body concerns.
  12. max silver
    I don't think it would likely take anywhere approaching $20-25 million per season to extend Kirk. Other than a few exceptions catchers generally aren't paid that well in free agency or extensions. I'd wager something closer to $12-15 million AAV would likely get things done.
  13. max silver
    I don't believe Bo has ever produced a peak season sufficient to garner those types of deals. Perhaps if he produced a 6+ win season where he took a step forward defensively he could get closer to the contractual stratosphere of the listed players.
  14. max silver
    I simply don't see why the team needs to rush to make this switch. Bo produced above average OAA metrics. Gimenez is already one of the sport's most valuable defenders at second base so I don't think there needs to be some sort of rush to move him off of second base. He's so elite at second base that shifting him to short stop may be more of a sideways move in terms of overall defensive value.
  15. max silver
    I believe Gimenez is likely a plus defender at short stop. He's produced a combined 7 DRS/8 OAA in about a half season's worth of innings at the position. It remains to be seen what type of numbers he can produce in a full season at the position, but I believe there's a very good chance we will find out in the 2026 season if Bo moves on.
  16. max silver
    Why do you hate Bo Bichette so much? When he's hitting up to his capabilities he's a top 5 overall short stop in all of MLB. Gimenez can move to short stop full time next season if Bo moves on, there doesn't need to be some sort of massive rush to do so.
  17. max silver
    That would do nothing but serve to piss off Bichette and basically guarantee he's leaving in free agency. Bo isn't nearly that bad that he can't play a single inning at short stop. It isn't even guaranteed that swapping Giminez and Bo would offer a massive defensive improvement as Bo hasn't played a single inning at second base in his major league career and we don't know what kind of defense he can offer at the position. Up until now the team simply hasn't had a better full time short stop option on the roster instead of Bichette so there really wasn't a full time option that would make shifting Bo off of the position full time. Don't bother trying to mention Semien as an option because his short stop metrics were very poor before he signed as a Blue Jay, and were also far worse than Bichette's in the year that they were both employed by the team.
  18. max silver
    Don't pretend you've been offering up some sort of succinct analysis vs a steady stream of whining.
  19. max silver
    I think you are underestimating how mediocre the American League is in general right now. It took all of 86 wins to qualify for a wild card spot last season, and I don't expect that to change dramatically this season.
  20. max silver
    The Blue Jays were a whopping 0.14 runs per game below the AL average last season. That's despite receiving essentially no contributions from Bo. They've added a legitimate middle of the order bat in Santander so with a little luck it should be an above average offensive group.
  21. max silver
    I would imagine Iglesias could compete for the 3rd base starting job if he were signed by the Blue Jays. Clement's projections are better than Iglesias and I would tend to agree with this. I don't think it's even remotely conceivable for Iglesias to repeat his 2024 success offensively. This is a player with a career 90 wRC+ and the projections largely place him in this bucket as well. His numbers against left handed pitching in particular look to be of the unrepeatable variety as he produced a 184 wRC+ in the split. If you look under the hood it's red flags galore, including a .471 BABIP and .416 wOBA vs .327 xwOBA. I think the team has ample depth to cover the infield to the point where an Iglesias signing would serve to limit opportunities to the younger players for what most likely would amount to a marginal upgrade if an upgrade at all.
  22. max silver
    That's possible but he presumably only spent half of his left field time at Camden Yards. I don't know if it's possible to break down defensive numbers in this fashion.
  23. max silver
    I'd like the team to give both of Springer and Santander a look in left field to see who is more comfortable with the position. Santander produced legitimately awful metrics in his time in left field a few seasons ago to the point where he'd really be hurting the team defensively if he isn't able to make a dramatic improvement with more reps.
  24. max silver
    I would imagine most of those errors occurred before the suspension as Orelvis only appeared in 11 games post suspension and 63 games prior to the suspension.
  25. max silver
    Santander can still play the outfield for another season or two before he settles in as more of a DH type. He also appears to be a decent first baseman as well based on the small sample of innings he's played there so he shouldn't be limited to DH only once he's too slow for the outfield.
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