max silver

The guy had exactly one season with the Jays where he wasn't a total f***ing disaster, that was 2015. Take a look at his 2016 numbers and tell me if you still think that's a guy that was a big part of a team: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/ryan-goins/9807/stats?position=2B/SS I see a guy that put up a 39!!! WRC+, and managed to be worth an impressive -0.8 WAR in only 196 AB. If both Devon Travis and Tulo weren't made of glass he would have received very few at bats if he still manged to stick with the team

You mean the same Ryan Goins who has had exactly one season where he eclipsed the 0.2 WAR mark? I'm not so sure you should be patting yourself on the back too hard for that one all things considered.

Sure that's possible, but I'm not sure I would have the appetite for moving out guys like Groshans or Pearson to acquire similar level talent for the outfield. Even the next tier down of guys like Orelvis Martinez and Alek Monoah would sting to send out in trade come to think of it as well. At my core I'm most likely the prospect hoarding type as well apparently.

I'm not so sure Marcell Ozuna is necessarily the best example for proving your case though. Cole and Strasburg are absolute upper echelon level players, while Ozuna has a variable enough set of expected outcomes that the best offer he could muster was in the 3 year $50 million region. I guess I can concede to your argument that position players have been more willing to just accept the top dollar no matter where it is, guys like Harper and Machado were willing to sign with rebuilding clubs. Sure it took obscene levels of money to sign both of these guys, but that's the price you pay for trying to acquire elite talent through free agency.

With the way that organizations horde their prospects nowadays I'm of the mindset that the only reliable way to acquire young elite outfielders is to obtain them as amateurs. Pretty much every trade for prospects now that occurs has the trading team designating a handful of their guys as untouchable. The lack of elite outfield talent in the minor leagues is pretty much the only nitpick that I have with the Jays current rebuild. Otherwise they have taken all the necessary steps to create a championship caliber talent pipeline, but sooner or later this discrepancy needs to be addressed for the organization to maximize their long term potential.

It seems elite players are hard to acquire through free agency and trade no matter what position they play, best to acquire them as amateurs if at all possible all things considered. So few of the truly elite players even seem to reach free agency at desirable ages anymore with the high frequency of pre free agency extensions this day and age. It's stunning in this day and age when the absolute elite players get traded at all, guys like Mookie Betts being traded was almost unheard of anymore.

I wonder what the Jays criteria are for picking the best player available? The lack of impact outfielders in the system compared to all other positions on the diamond leaves me wondering what their priorities are in drafting and international free agent signings. There are obvious impact infielders, catchers and pitchers throughout the system, but unfortunately there are very few exciting outfield prospects comparatively speaking. Perhaps this is a potential side effect of drafting strictly on best player available where you end up heavy in certain areas and light in others depending on how other teams end up choosing around you in the draft. I imagine some of this pitching/catching/infield depth in the minors can eventually be turned into impact outfielders in the future, but it certainly looks at a glance that the Jays aren't placing enough emphasis on obtaining impact outfield talent in their amateur talent acquisition processes.

Typically I would agree with this, but when you have such an obvious organizational weakness such as the Jays have ended up with then I wonder if a slight shift towards drafting for need may work out. Like if two players are deemed to have similar value, perhaps the tie-breaker can go to the outfielder. Obviously if you deem a pitcher as a future 65 value player, and the outfielder is only a 55 you have to go with best player, but if players are subjectively very close in future value perhaps favouring a bat over a pitcher can work out.

I'm a little torn whether I'd prefer the Jays to take a bat or an arm, but no matter what it's looking like the team will end up with an elite talent with their pick. I sort of find myself hoping the Jays end up with an outfielder with their pick though, there is such a lack of impact talent in the outfield right now throughout the organization that prioritizing the outfield might just be required.

Maybe he's intentionally playing like s*** to tank his value so the Orioles don't pick him up when he ends up on waivers

Sleeper: Julian Merryweather: this is the year we finally see the guy stay on the field and get a first hand look at the stuff. Reports last year had his fastball up to 100 MPH, so far in spring he's been reported to be sitting mid-upper 90's in limited action. He might be able to be a nice mid-season bullpen addition after the Jays finally move on from the silly notion of stretching him out as a starter Dasan Brown: the guy had a decent debut in rookie ball putting up a 148 WRC+. He is a player with tools for days, but is super raw at this point. With potentially 80 grade speed if the bat is even average this guy could still be a star. Bust: Joey Murray: Trick pitch guys always leave me skeptical at best. Murray may have two good pitches with his "invisiball" and a decent curveball, but ultra-low velocity guys like this have a very small margin for error with regards to pitch location. His ultimate test will be in AAA if the Jays are able to find room for him in the rotation there, there is a huge logjam of deserving starters that need innings, Murray is just one of many. I have suspicions he is going to end up exposed in AAA and homeruns are going to be an issue. Hopefully he can prove me wrong. New Legit Guy: Riley Adams: The bat looks to be legit with him beginning to unlock his power potential. Reports about his defense are generally positive as well, including a very high caught stealing percentage. If he keeps the strikeouts under control he has potential to be a good MLB starting catcher very soon.

Not to mention s***ing on other legitimate prospects for no good reason. Cavan Biggio being a nothing prospect despite a nice season in AA immediately springs to mind.

As a reliever he was a serviceable lefty, if he's added a few ticks velocity as reported then he may be able to be effective going forward. It's not like the Jays have a lock-down pen at this point, may as well see what all the invitees can do at least as there is nothing to lose by doing so.

It makes me wonder if the Jays don't see Puig as a good fit because of the likelihood of on the field shenanigans that seem to follow the guy.

It will be interesting to see how he holds up when he starts using the AAA ball, although it's up in the air at this point what to even expect out of the baseballs in 2020. Will it be the regular season super ball that flew out of ballparks at record pace or the more subdued post-season ball? MLB needs to get that s*** in order asap, not being able to reliably produce a consistent ball is a huge issue going forward.

I'm having a hard time getting particularly excited about Joey Murray for some reason. Smoke and mirrors trick pitch guys with marginal stuff leave me terrified when watching that they can end up getting torched if their location is even a little off. Time will tell if the invisiball translates even to AAA let alone MLB. I had an interesting thought on a possible Patrick Murphy comparison in AJ Burnett. Both tall righties, upper 90's fastballs that generate plenty of ground balls, both primarily fastball/curveball repertoires with show me change-ups. Sure this is probably way too optimistic but Burnett shows that a primarily two pitch pitcher can have a great career as a starter if the two primary pitches are good enough. Burnett's minor league numbers were mostly pretty ugly, it looks like in the first few years of his career he was one of those guys who had no idea where his pitches were headed.

Yeah, you would have to think $6 million or whatever the Jays slot value is just might change his mind.

I won't be surprised if Patrick Murphy forces his way into the Jays rotation by the second half of the season. He should be close to ready for a full MLB season starter's workload as he's been up around 150 innings already. Nate Pearson and Patrick Murphy should both be very fun to watch with their upper 90's heat.

Future Jays are big on Pete Crow-Armstrong.

It was nice to see Patrick Murphy get some love in your prospect evaluation. The guy has been on my radar heavily since he torched the Florida State League in 2018. He ticks a lot of boxes, tall starters build, mid-upper 90's velocity consistently, hammer curve ball, improving change-up, limits home-runs, generates ground balls. The injury history is a bit scary, but if he manages to stay on the field there is some nice upside present.

I'm willing to bet sooner or later he will be directed by the player development regime to get his diet and exercise plans in order, just as eventually happened with Vladdy Jr.

I wonder if the healthy version of Luis Severino might be a suitable choice for an optimistic Nate Pearson potential outcome. Although Severino has sustained multiple arm issues the last few years, so that also shows how fickle it is to try to project these guys.

I see you have your 50% outcome comparison for Nate Pearson listed as Jon Gray. I suspect every single reader on this board would be pretty disappointed with that outcome, and with what Nate has done up to this point I'd readily argue he has a very good chance to have a similar career to the guy you've listed as his 95% outcome in Noah Syndergaard. How do you go about tabulating the results to come up with your comparison players?

Hey great, I've really been looking forward to this one.

Yeah this makes me wonder what the guy could reasonably be expected to even earn in arbitration. The total contract can work out to $29.5 million as it has two option years tacked on at the end. This just seems unnecessary to hand out a contract like this to a reliever so early on.