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Welcome aboard, in the future please do our eyes a favor and at the very least split walls of text like this into paragraphs.

I've come to the realization that the best move with respect with Giles is likely to move him at the trade deadline, and then sign him back in the off-season. If he likes the Jays as much as he has stated then there should be no issue with getting him resigned at that point, just like the Yankees did with Aroldis Chapman. Unfortunately you'll likely never see another team stupid enough to move a prospect like Gleyber Torres for half a season of a reliever ever again, but Giles if healthy should be able to net back a nice prospect. You might end having to pay a little more to keep Giles compared to a pre or mid-season extension, but this way you have another hopefully nice prospect+Giles as well, think of it as using cash to buy a prospect.

George Springer would be a great secondary target next off-season. I wouldn't be surprised to see Betts and Springer pull down Cole/Strasburg type contracts when things have settled. Springer is 3 years older than Betts, so hopefully an offer for 5 or 6 years would get it done.

It's too bad the front office couldn't have extracted some IFA cash out of Baltimore for Urena like they did for Smith Jr.

I have a hard time getting too excited about a 22 year old college draftee dominating rookie ball. If he displayed any power at all then maybe he would be more likely to turn into more than a 4th outfielder, but this is a guy that put up below a .100 ISO in A ball.

Given that the Astros traded him away (and had to throw in another pitching prospect to seal the deal) for a 30 year old 0.2 win soft tossing right handed reliever, I don't think we can get too terribly excited about what Cal Stevenson is just yet.

Between Choi, Martinez and Tsutsugo it looks like the Rays are trying to corner the market on 1B/DH types. Sure Martinez and Tsutsugo can play outfield, but the results likely aren't going to be pretty. The Rays must be very high on Arozarena, he put up very nice numbers last year, but the scouting reports aren't particularly glowing.

Whatever man, main point still stands whether your Subway change is 40 cents instead of 5. This is a trade that returned a very near MLB ready left handed starter with nice stuff, who is a potential mid-rotation starter in the very near future, as well as a super young right handed starter who just murdered the competition across various levels. To complain about the trade because it doesn't have a most likely worthless filler prospect is silly.

By MLB pipeline, both Kay and Woods Richardson both rate as 50 value prospects at this point in their development. According to the hybrid prospect values in this article the Jays obtained about $52 million in prospect value in the Stroman trade: https://www.drivelinebaseball.com/2019/02/prospect-valuation-much-top-prospects-worth-professional-baseball-teams/ Why we should give half a f*** about not getting back a $2 million value prospect as well is something that's beyond me. That's like buying a Subway sub for $10 and worrying about not getting your 5 cents of change back afterwards.

I almost think Stevenson is more likely to hit his ceiling than Fisher. The problem is that his ceiling is basically light hitting corner outfielder/4th outfielder, not really a very exciting profile.

Hopefully videos of broccoli, protein shakes and quinoa.

Yeah Devers is absolutely the test case for best case scenario for Vladdy defensively. Although if he isn't able to make some refinement to his swing to gain more loft I'm fearful he may not even hit the expected offensive peak that has been projected for him. Sure it's great to hit the ball hard, but if you are killing worms in China with your grounders then that negates so much of the potential damage.

It should be interesting to see how Vlad's commitment to fitness instead of fatness pays off defensively. By Statcast he was 10 outs below average on balls where he had to move in, which lines up with what the eye test showed up as well. He seemed to have a hard time getting his big frame moving, and then had even more trouble slowing down afterward. I remember a play where Vladdy cut in front of the shortstop where he had to run almost to first base to get himself slowed down.

A pre-free agency extension would certainly entail a certain amount of risk for both sides to make it happen, and you very well may be correct in asserting that it simply doesn't make sense for either side at this point. The club carries the risk of Giles being hurt going forward and not providing the necessary value for the deal to work out, and Giles is potentially leaving money on the table by taking less money before free agency. But for Giles he gains long term security, and loses the risk of having to take a 1 year pillow contract in free agency. Given the front office has shown very little inclination to even offer extensions to their star players up to this point the whole argument is likely moot anyway. Both Stroman and Donaldson are on record stating that they were never offered any type of extension. It simply boggles the mind that of all the players on the roster, Randal Grichuk is the guy they decided to lock up long term. A 1-2 win player with several years of control remaining doesn't scream extension priority in any way.l

For me the Jays related content is well worth the cost. They recently added Nick Ashbourne who appears will add some nice analytical analysis. I'm no more of a fan of Keith Law as anyone else as he is a pretentious ******* who has a habit of making completely untrue statements, getting proven wrong, and then doubling down. Thankfully his articles aren't beamed directly to me eyes so I'm in no way forced to read his crap.

I agree that offering up Giles up a full value free agent contract isn't necessary at this point, you can simply resign him at season's end if you feel that he is a good addition going forward. I just can't help but wonder if the Jays have an opportunity to lock up a valuable asset at a little below market value at this point. They get first crack at doing so, once he hits free agency that opportunity is gone for good.

I don't get this whole asset with no value term that gets lumped on every player that signs a contract extension. For elite players that simply isn't true. If their health and/or performance craters then sure they have no trade value, but elite players in their prime for teams actually trying to win have plenty of value. If you sign Giles for a reasonable somewhat team friendly extension (which may be possible due to his stated desire to stay in Toronto) and the team ends up being terrible in the first half, then there is no reason you can't move him to a different team at the trade deadline, he will still have plenty of trade value. Sure if his arm falls off then you have a dead asset, there is always this risk in any kind of long term contract with a reliever. This isn't the same situation as it was with Stroman at this point. Stroman had far more trade value as a starter with 1.5 years of control than Giles does as a reliever with only 1 year of control going forward. Stroman returned 2 top 100'ish prospects, with so little control remaining with Giles by the trade deadline you might struggle to get back even 1 top 100 player. You almost certainly wouldn't want to offer a qualifying offer to Giles in case he decided to take it. If you could have moved Giles at the trade deadline for a good return then that would have been the prime opportunity to do so. I do wonder what the Yankees offer looked like at the time, given that Giles was having issues pitching on back to back days. The team has potentially added upwards of 10+ wins in free agency to a team that was close to .500 since Bichette was called up. This isn't the same team that was trending towards the franchise's worst ever record in the first half, it is now a team that showed enough forward momentum that the front office felt the time was right to start improving the 25 man roster, and not simply collecting assets. At some point keeping your best players to provide present value makes more sense than worrying about future value. If the return for Giles isn't a clear win vs. the value he provides on the field for the Jays, then I would argue it is better to hang onto him.

I think the key point on whether to extend Giles or not depends on the state of his elbow. Supposedly the elbow problems stemmed from a fall he sustained on the field in Chicago earlier in the season. Subsequent imaging tests only showed inflammation and no structural damage. It appears Giles has turned a corner with the prior behavioural issues, and he has typically been an elite reliever throughout his career. He has stated publically he has loved his time with the organization and is willing to stay long term. If the two sides can line up on a reasonable extension to keep him around longer term then why not get it done? The team is transitioning to contention in the near future, nothing wrong with having an elite closer on the roster.

I think he has room to improve as well. Take away a few starts where he likely got pounded because he was tipping pitches and suddenly the results look a lot better. I recall he tweaked his slider or cutter grip later on in the season and was able to go on a nice run in September. Quite a few of those appearances were as a bulk pitcher behind an opener though, so it's not truly indicative of improvement as a starter going forward.

I'm not so sure you can say Trent Thornton has exactly failed as a starting prospect though. Sure he won't be fronting a rotation any time soon, but as a back of the rotation guy he's perfectly serviceable. Although I'm not certain we are speaking about the same guy, who exactly is this Trent Thoron you speak of?

Interesting news coming out today that Travis Shaw made some swing changes after the 2018 season that ended up backfiring completely. Remarkably similar story to Kevin Smith and his ill-fated swing changes as well, both guys had disastrous 2019 seasons. This makes me very hopeful that Shaw can turn things around and be a massive infield upgrade for the Jays.

I wonder if Mookie Betts is a good MLB comparable?

One more year at $10 million.

If Hudson gets paid like a world series hero then you have to pass, but if he gets paid like the fungible bullpen dude who was picked up from the scrap heap in spring training then why the hell not.

Suzuki sounds like he's likely a better defender than Soto as he's won Japanese gold gloves in right field. Add that to the premium offense and this looks like a dude that is going to get PAID.