Bobthe4th

The really big question is will they be willing to spend when we are ready to compete, and we're a more attractive destination. I think they will, but we'll have to see.

Disappointing:

That might not be enough considering the White Sox just lost out on Wheeler despite offering the most money. They're likely going to be very aggressive on either Bumgarner or Ryu.

Or not.

Well Grichuk's deal goes down to $9m a year for 3 years from next season (i.e. 2021) which in total is just over half what we paid Tulo to go away (and he'll only have $4m left from 2021). Different situation of course, but still frustrating if we are forced to keep him around if he continues to suck.

I don’t think it should be. He’s one bad season away from his contract going from unnecessary to a mistake, and we shouldn’t be rostering a replacement player just because he has long term contract, especially with our payroll flexibility. TBF he only needs to revert to a 2 WAR player to justify keeping him, which is still possible.

Chase Anderson says hi.

Music to my ears! Drury, Fisher, McKinney, Tellez, Hernandez, and even Grichuk should all be on their last chance. If any have a bad season they should be replaced - it’s not acceptable to have a quarter of the roster at replacement level but kept just in case they take a big leap forward.

TBF we don’t know for sure that we didn’t (though it does seems very unlikely). If we offered the same deal as the Phillies there’d be zero reason he’d pick us over them.

This is potentially really bad news. The one thing the front office unquestionably has done well with is drafting.

The first sentence is true, but the second is dependent on context. For example signing Wheeler now, when at least the first year is wasted and we’d have to give him an insane offer to even consider coming here, wouldn’t be better than say trading a package around a catcher (one of the prospects or McGuire) next year for a starter with control. It’s all about the potential impact on the roster management.

We’re just disagreeing on what is required to get to a solid rotation and a .500 season, and the amount of money we should be spending. As I previously said someone like Pineda would be a good and realistic signing. Overpaying a Wheeler type, decreases the chance of getting value from the contract, increases the risk of limiting our payroll flexibility in a few years when the core is no longer cheap, and isn’t worth the extra risk when the difference between the signings is not going to make a big difference to our record this year. For some reason you seem to be suggesting that if we don’t sign someone like Wheeler this offseason, we can’t acquire someone similar later on, which is bizarre. Although I think our front office is too conservative, thank f*** they’re not as impatient as you!

Absolutely people like Bichette won't want to remain here if we are still a losing team in 6 years time when he's a free agent. Signing someone like Wheeler or not in 2019 has negligible impact on that 2025 decision though. I think most, except for some of the most optimistic (some would say deluded) people, accept that it's very unlikely we make the playoffs this year. But only the most pessimistic people aren't excited about the young core. If in a year or two if we still haven't built on the core then I'd be agreeing with you, but right now I disagree that we have to make particularly risky moves (like a very expensive free agent signing) this offseason.

You said we need to sign someone like Wheeler to be a winning team i.e. over .500. Not signing the biggest free agents this offseason does not equal a losing culture, and if you think we have to, to motivate the young core, then I don't know what to tell you. "No reason" lol.

Stroman obviously! Seriously though, there's always a trade if we can't get what we need in free agency.

There’s a big difference between supplementing the core, and recklessly overspending to try to move the competitive window up a year.

If things go reasonably well this year, following up by adding a top of the rotation starter and a CF could make us really competitive for 2021 onwards. The most important success indicators for this year IMO - Vlad becoming a superstar (+ ideally sticking at 3B), Pearson cracking the rotation, clarity on which starters are going to stick, clarity on how many new outfielders we need, and clarity on whether any of the lesser players can improve enough to contribute long term (e.g. Tellez, Hernandez, Fisher).

There is so much short term thinking on this board. Everything from we suck right now so we’re automatically going to suck for years, to we suck right now so we have to spend, spend, spend to fix it immediately. I don’t think we are far away from competing, but we’re not there yet. A lot of our current weaknesses could be fixed internally by this time next year. None are guarantees though, and IMO there are too many to fix right now in one offseason. I think we’ll be around a .500 team this year and be in a really solid position in the 2020/21 offseason.

Which is exactly why it’ll take over $20m AAV to get him to come here - he’ll get $20m (or close to) offers from better, more attractive destinations. Besides, Wheeler on his own does not equal an over .500 team this season for us.

Pineda is more realistic and I could see us being in on him. Even if not though our rotation is going to look very different in a year anyway. From Pearson, Kay, Merryweather, Borucki, Waguespack, Perez, Diaz etc we could end up with a comparible rotation for free. TBF we'll probably need to add a top end starter at some point anyway, but I disagree that we have to do it right now. There are so many unknowns about the current squad, but we have a bright future. Any of the significant gaps that can be addressed internally gives us a chance to really go crazy on one or two free agents when it's putting us over the edge from good to elite (hello Mookie Betts!)

To get Wheeler to come here we'd have to offer him offer over $20m AAV plus he got a QO. It's not happening. That rotation isn't getting us into the playoffs without significant additions to the outfield and bench (our current infield cover of Drury, Urena and Valera is one of the worst in baseball), keeping Giles, and most of the kids having good to great seasons.

Relevant part that explains why some people are going to be disappointed with what we end up with: ”To get anything done, however, the Blue Jays are going to have to overpay and a question for them to wrestle with is whether it’s better to spend big on someone who could make a significant difference or to limit risk overpaying a smaller amount on someone with less upside. Even in this era of stifled free agency, the words of Andrew Friedman, the Los Angeles Dodgers president of baseball operations, during the 2016 winter meetings ring true: “If you’re always rational about every free agent, you will finish third on every free agent.” The reality for the Blue Jays is that as a rebuilding club in the American League East, there’s a premium to get an in-demand free agent to choose them. Toronto is a world-class city that deserves better, but some players still need to be enticed to move across the border. From a competitiveness standpoint, few are willing to slog it out with kids on the make when they can join a winner for similar money.”

Wow this could blow up: