Bobthe4th

The mlbtraderumors.com Jays preview is up: Offseason Outlook: Toronto Blue Jays With many of their best young position players now in the majors, the Blue Jays will focus on augmenting that group with some pitching. Guaranteed Contracts Randal Grichuk, OF: $43MM through 2023 Lourdes Gurriel Jr., OF: $15.9MM through 2023 Chase Anderson, SP: $8.5MM through 2020 ($9.5MM club option for 2021, $500K buyout) Other Money Owed Troy Tulowitzki, SS: $18MM through 2020 ($14MM salary, $4MM buyout of 2021 club option) Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via Matt Swartz) Matt Shoemaker – $3.8MM Ken Giles – $8.4MM Brandon Drury – $2.5MM Luke Maile – $800K Derek Law – $1.3MM Ryan Dull – $800K Anthony Bass – $1.7MM Non-tender candidates: Maile, Dull Free Agents Justin Smoak, Clay Buchholz, Ryan Tepera, Devon Travis, Clayton Richard, Buddy Boshers The Blue Jays wasted little time in adding to the rotation this offseason, acquiring righty Chase Anderson from the Brewers and exercising the $8.5MM club option on Anderson’s services for the 2020 season. The soon-to-be 32-year-old Anderson is also controllable via a $9.5MM club option for 2021, making him more than just a pure single-season pickup. Anderson hasn’t been overly impressive over the last two seasons, totaling 1.5 total fWAR and a 105 ERA+ over 297 innings. He has worked mostly as a starter, though Milwaukee also tended to limit Anderson’s outings before he faced batters for a third time last season. Still, he has been a relatively durable pitcher over those two years and there is some potential in a change of scenery, even to the tough AL East. As a pitcher with some degree of success over six MLB seasons, however, Anderson still represents an upgrade for one of the league’s shakiest rotations in 2019. Trent Thornton and Jacob Waguespack are also tentatively penciled into the 2020 starting five based on their generally average results from last season, while Ryan Borucki is an even bigger maybe given that he only pitched 6 2/3 Major League innings due to recurring elbow problems. Matt Shoemaker is also looking to return from an injury-shortened year, though perhaps due to some unease about his projected $3.8MM arbitration salary and how Shoemaker will rebound from a torn ACL, the Jays haven’t gotten far in contract talks with the veteran righty. Anthony Kay, T.J. Zeuch, Sean Reid-Foley, and Thomas Pannone will also be competing for spots in Spring Training. Top prospect Nate Pearson is likely to debut sometime in 2020, if almost certainly not on the Opening Day roster (for both service-time reasons and because Pearson has only 18 IP at the Triple-A level). Since 2020 will be another rebuilding season for the Jays, they will have time to evaluate these and probably many other young arms to see who could factor into the plans for 2021, the date that team president/CEO Mark Shapiro and GM Ross Atkins have loosely (though far from officially) mentioned as the starting point for a new era of competitive baseball in Toronto. The front office has been clear, however, that more new faces will be added to the pitching mix, and the Blue Jays will be willing to spend beyond the level of just veteran reclamation projects, i.e. their acquisitions of Clayton Richard or Clay Buchholz last offseason. There’s certainly room in the budget, as Roster Resource projects the Jays for a payroll of just under $70.25MM, and even that number could drop by a few million if a few arbitration-eligible players are non-tendered. Looking ahead to 2021, the Jays will have only Randal Grichuk and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. on the books since Troy Tulowitzki’s contract will finally be up. There isn’t any financial reason Toronto couldn’t make a notable signing now, perhaps in the spirit of the Nationals’ deal with Jayson Werth in the 2010-11 offseason, which served as an announcement that a rebuilding team was ready to turn the corner. That being said, the Jays might have to severely overpay to convince a top-tier free agent (who surely would prefer to join a ready-made contender) to join a club that might not be ready to compete by 2021 at the earliest. Yet while the likes of Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Zack Wheeler, or Hyun-Jin Ryu probably aren’t feasible, names such as Kyle Gibson, Julio Teheran, Tanner Roark, Wade Miley, Rick Porcello, or maybe even Dallas Keuchel (who the Jays reportedly had some interest in last winter) could be possible fits, perhaps in some cases just on one-year contracts. Beyond free agency, the Anderson acquisition could hint at the Jays’ optimal strategy for using their payroll space. The Blue Jays only gave up a minor prospect to take over the rights to Anderson’s option years from Milwaukee, and Toronto could similarly target other mid-range or better pitchers on teams that are looking to cut spending, whether it’s mid-market clubs like the Brewers or bigger-spending organizations who are looking to avoid the luxury tax. This strategy could also be used to land position players, though the Blue Jays hope they have most of their everyday core already in place. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will be at third base, Bo Bichette at shortstop, Cavan Biggio at second base, and Gurriel in left field as the most promising cornerstones of the rebuild. Catcher Danny Jansen, first baseman Rowdy Tellez, and outfielder/DH Teoscar Hernandez are the somewhat less settled members of the group, with Reese McGuire also perhaps vying for a timeshare with Jansen behind the plate. Grichuk is the veteran member of the bunch with the long-term contract, though he’ll be looking to bounce back after a subpar 2019 season. Justin Smoak’s free agency leaves a hole in the first base/DH mix, and the Jays have a vacancy in either center field or right field (whichever position isn’t filled by Grichuk). Derek Fisher is the favorite for one outfield job, competing with other unproven candidates like Anthony Alford, Billy McKinney, or Jonathan Davis, while Brandon Drury is a utility option at multiple positions but has to rebound from a sub-replacement performance. It’s possible Toronto could simply stick with all of these in-house options in a development year to see what they really have for the future. For instance, the exact alignment and/or multi-positional ability of the current players may still be in question, as Atkins has suggested that Gurriel could potentially again be a candidate for second base work or Hernandez could even see some time at first or second base. Biggio has also already bounced around a few different positions besides second base, and speculation persists that Guerrero could end up as a first baseman sooner rather than later. The Jays might prefer to save any major acquisitions until the team knows what additions are specifically needed to be a contender. Rather than splurging on a Nicholas Castellanos or Marcell Ozuna, the Blue Jays could look for players on one-year deals. A veteran middle infielder (this year’s version of Freddy Galvis or Eric Sogard, essentially) would be useful, or a left-handed bat to balance out a mostly right-handed collection of outfielders. Speaking speculatively, a reunion with Sogard would make sense. Bringing back Smoak could also be a fit, while a bounce-back candidate like Travis Shaw might also be someone who gets a look for the first base position. Free agent Jason Kipnis is a left-handed hitter who can play at second base and in the outfield, and has past ties to Shapiro and Atkins from their time in Cleveland. Atkins has also said that the Jays have some interest in a trio of Japanese players (corner outfield slugger Yoshitomo Tsutsugo, rangy center fielder Shogo Akiyama and glove-first infielder Ryosuke Kikuchi) who will be available via free agency or the posting system at what should be a relatively modest price. It wouldn’t be out of the question to see Toronto clear some room by packaging one or two of their surplus players in a trade. Jansen and McGuire have already drawn interest, and players like Hernandez, Tellez, or any of the less-established outfielders could be trade bait if the Blue Jays feel they could consolidate two players they feel okay about into one player they really like. Speaking of trade chips, while Atkins hasn’t heard many trade rumblings yet about Ken Giles, the closer clearly seems like perhaps the least-likely Blue Jay to be with the team come Opening Day. Giles quite probably would have been dealt already, had it not been for an ill-timed injury in the days leading up to the July 31 trade deadline. Giles is coming off an outstanding season that will push his price tag to a projected $8.4MM in his final arbitration year, though there figures to be some solid interest given the long list of teams in need of bullpen reinforcements. That list actually includes the Jays themselves, who will be in the market for extra relievers even before their eventual need to replace Giles at closer. Toronto has made a habit of acquiring veteran relievers (i.e. Daniel Hudson, David Phelps, Seunghwan Oh, Joe Smith) to short-term deals and then flipping them at the trade deadline, so expect the team to again revisit this tactic this winter. Left-handed relief is a priority, as since Tim Mayza will miss 2020 due to Tommy John surgery, the Blue Jays only have three southpaws (Borucki, Pannone, Kay) on their current 40-man roster. The Jays have already added one veteran with upside in claiming right-hander Anthony Bass from the Mariners. A reunion with Ryan Tepera could also be a possibility, even though Toronto outrighted him off the 40-man roster, leading Tepera to opt for free agency. Though the Blue Jays had the fifth-worst record (67-95) in baseball last season, they find themselves in position for a much more intriguing offseason than some of the other lesser lights who are in earlier stages of rebuilds. While there’s still a lot of uncertainty throughout the roster, the Jays have graduated their first wave of young players to the big leagues who can be reasonably counted on as building blocks, so there’s room for the club to be aggressive if it feels the end of the rebuild is near. The types of pitching additions Toronto makes this winter could provide some interesting hints about where the Jays feel they are in their path back to contention.

Before the random move to CF I was advocating using him at 1B. His bat is probably more likely to stick there than Tellez.

Yes free agents normally are overpaid, that's how the system works. But for anyone who is any good, we'd have to pay an additional premium on top of the normal free agent premium. We can't offer winning baseball right now, and we're not one of the top free agent destinations (New York / LA etc) anyway. Can you see this front office paying a double premium for anyone?

Gurriel is exactly the kind of player we should be keeping. Cheap, controllable, and just had a very good season in a position of weakness. Even if last year was a fluke and he isn't a full time outfielder, he should be able to be a decent utility player. If he's traded for prospects and we roll with an outfield of McKinney, Fisher, and Grichuk it undermines any pretence at trying to win next year.

Griezmann is world class but his best position is a second forward behind a traditional striker (like Giroud with France and Costa with Atletico Madrid). I wish Barca would move on from their manager Valverde. Under him they aren't good enough away from home and are too over reliant on Messi.

Yeah there's no chance we sign a QO player. I also think Ryu should get multiple 3 year offers so we prob would have to offer that 4th year. Short term deals, or sure things (or as close to that as is possible) in free agency would be my preference while we are still a relatively bad team, with a very promising developing core. IMO I'd rather make risker moves (overpaying to get an ace for example) when the pay off = a potential World Series or two. Where I'm fully behind taking on salary right now is in the trade market to take advantage of teams looking to shed payroll.

I see what you're saying but I'd argue it doesn't make that much sense. To get a decent pitcher to sign here we're going to have to pay more than anyone else i.e. a premium on top of the normal free agent premium. So why do that for a very risky player? I guess you could argue it doesn't matter if he fails as we've got tonnes of payroll space, I just think an argument can be made that it's an unnecessary risk.

Obviously a country with its own professional teams is going to have a bigger player pool to select from. I was surprised Canada are so low.

Are there even 10 nations where baseball is played professionally?

Not only was Pompey DFA off the 40 man months ago, he’s now a minor league free agent according to Baseball America: Toronto Blue Jays RHP: Josh Almonte (AA), John Axford (AAA), Danny Barnes (AAA), Mark Leiter Jr. (AAA), Willy Ortiz (AA), Francisco Rios (AAA) LHP: Matt Dermody (AAA), Shawn Morimando (AAA) C: Patrick Cantwell (AAA), Michael de la Cruz (AAA), Javier Hernandez (HiA), Alberto Mineo (AA), Andres Sotillo (AA) 2B: Deiferson Barreto (HiA) OF: Socrates Brito (AAA), Patrick Kivlehan (AAA), Jordan Patterson (AAA), Dalton Pompey (AAA)

I really hope the new manager likes him. Mourinho for example would be a terrible hire for Davies, as he dislikes playing youngsters.

We included Daniel Norris too, but even so I 100% make that trade again - as a direct result the following few months were the best I've experienced as a Jays fan (I'm too young for the World Series years). FWIW one of the very first things Shapiro did when he got here was criticise AA for that trade.

TBH rather than worrying about nostalgia or dreaming about unlikely free agent signings, my main interest for the upcoming season is Vlad. It's such a big year for him (and therefore for the Jays as a whole). Best case - he turns up to spring training in shape, consequently improves at 3B, and puts it all together at the plate = superstar. Puts us in a position to be aggressive in the 2020 offseason. Worst case - grandma's cooking keeps him fat, it becomes clear he hasn't even got a short term future at 3B, the fielding frustrations contribute to another relatively disappointing year with the bat (compared to what we all thought he'd be doing straight away ala at a Soto/Acuna level) and a transition to 1B leaving a desperate need for a new 3B and more pressure on the rest of the core to develop quickly.

Yeah but the tweet was just talking about the 40 man. In theory Travis and Tepera could come back if they just go to AAA, though I still expect Travis to retire relatively soon, and for Tepera to either elect free agency or to get picked up.

Yeah it seems like people forget just how good Price was for us, not just on the field but the perspective change from pretenders to contenders. It does feel like a long time ago now though!

Award finalists: MVP AL: Alex Bregman (Astros) Marcus Semien (Athletics) Mike Trout (Angels) NL: Cody Bellinger (Dodgers) Anthony Rendon (Nationals) Christian Yelich (Brewers) Cy Young AL: Gerrit Cole (Astros) Charlie Morton (Rays) Justin Verlander (Astros) NL: Jacob deGrom (Mets) Hyun-Jin Ryu (Dodgers) Max Scherzer (Nationals) Rookie of the Year AL: Yordan Alvarez (Astros) Brandon Lowe (Rays) John Means (Orioles) NL: Pete Alonso (Mets) Mike Soroka (Braves) Fernando Tatis Jr. (Padres) Manager of the Year AL: Rocco Baldelli (Twins) Aaron Boone (Yankees) Kevin Cash (Rays) NL: Craig Counsell (Brewers) Mike Shildt (Cardinals) Brian Snitker (Braves)

$8.5m has no impact on our overall budget restrictions this year, and next year he has a buy out if he ends up injured / sucking. This is exactly the kind of deal we were always going to be pursuing because of our payroll flexibility. It means we can take advantage of teams looking to save money by absorbing the cost and not having to give up any prospects of value, or commit to a long term contract. It's the kind of low risk, low reward deal this front office seems to love.

I don’t understand why it takes 4 seconds, but that’s far too long.

Yeah and then they got Hummels from them for free soon after too! Dortmund have done really well recovering to compete again the last couple of years (and to a lesser extent RB Leipzig) but Bayern have still won 7 titles in a row.

This analogy doesn’t really work mate. Bayern are by far the most popular and richest team in Germany. As such they buy all the best young German players, but also can attract top stars at ridiculous money too.

Didn’t realise how unpopular he was. Considering that if they’d won at the weekend they would have gone 2nd and they beat Spurs 7-2 in the Champions League a couple of weeks ago, without the context the sacking seemed out of the blue!

Travis’ career close to being over?