THANOS

If that holds true, then Paxton is next.

That's fine when it comes to building a team that wins the WAR totals. That said, time and time again, we see hitting get stiffled a bit in the post-season in favour of great pitching and defense. I'd personally feel more comfortable with 3-4 SPs we feel really good throwing out there in the playoffs. If we managed to do below, I'd feel pretty good. 1. Bauer (with illegal substance in tow) 2. Ryu 3. Pearson 4. Ray/SWR (if the latter is up and performing) If it was Odorizzi between Pearson & Ray, and no Bauer FA/Castillo trade, I'd feel less thrilled. I actually want Bauer more than Springer personally, but obviously want both if it was possible. As long as he's using that pinetar variant, or whatever it is, to increase his spinrate, I believe in his ability as an ace going fwd. Bauer will never get busted for using the substance either, because he hides it well, and too many SPs use it, like Cole, so it would domino too many pitchers' performance if he got called out. Also hoping his knowledge of analytics helps Pearson, Ray, and our pitching prospects.

The problem is there's not much high ceiling pitching left in FA in this OS. Only Paxton and Tanaka can be had fairly reasonably. All others are mid-rotation or back-end. And, of those, Paxton is very risky in both health and performance after 2020, and Tanaka has a injury pendulum swinging over his head waiting to drop and his best years may be behind him. This leaves Bauer. Would this FA spend on Springer & Bauer in one offseason? They definitely could. Just not sure they would do that. Would be adding 55M+ AAV to the payroll on two players. They still likely want to spend on the IF and BP as well.

How would you compare Teo's value to Gurriel's? Teo's 2nd half of 2019 & 2020 certainly raises his value exponentially, but Gurriel's potential and cheaper years of control (ie. no arbitration) makes him very valuable. Could a package around Teo & Grichuk net us Castillo without tanking the farm? Something like below? Hernandez, Grichuk (Jays eat 80% of salary), Groshans, Hiraldo, Kay & Pardinho

Part of player development that this front office places high value in is intangibles like leadership skills and being a "good teammate." Stuff like that is probably best achieved in the majors with the players he'll be spending all of his 20s around. This is under the impression that scouts and internal noise is correct on him, that he's basically so advanced in his hitting and defense that all he needs is a short stint in the minors. If that's true, than the hulk of development is intangibles and the mental side of the game, which can all be developed most in the majors with the core.

Absolutely. I think him and even SWR have fairly strong chances of being the prospects who see time in the majors this season. Many analysts see it that way for SWR as it is, and Martin just seems like the prime guy to make that happen for himself, all things considered.

One thing you may be missing in the argument is the case that the core is all up and a couple years away from hitting their primes. I don't think control manipulation is a large factor to consider when the core is all up. This takes the wind out of the business argument a bit.

And can potentially trade away the FAs you just signed if competition from cheaper prospects deems them expendable. No reason why you can't do that!

That brings us to like $76M or so now. So plenty of room to spend if they choose to. Going to need to go above their models to sign Springer though if they want him. Same with Bauer, Realmuto, Kluber, Paxton, etc. Very few FAs are going to choose Toronto over other destinations of money and years are the same.

I do too but, damn, the wait sucks. It's like doing well in an interview and then slowly doubting yourself unrationally until you get the job offer a few weeks later.

So my proposed offers for that package may have even been an overpay lol. LGJ, Hiraldo, Kay & Murphy Or Jansen, Groshans, Hiraldo & Kay

And signing Brantley allows us to try and trade LGJ ++ for Castillo.

Ah, in that case I'd probably go Springer, Kluber, Sagano (if the latter gets 10M)

f*** you you anti-social drunk f***nut

Nice s*** post. Love the substance.

Explain how it's ugly... It would essentially take our payroll to 140M or so with Lindor added, and Bauer and Realmuto would be off the books in 5 yrs when it's time to extend the core. Lindor would take a chunk of that for sure, but should still be able to extend part of the core you'd like to extend. We just had a payroll north of 160M only a few years ago, so it's well within our reach, if our FO decides to do it all in this OS.

Bauer 5/150 ($30 AAV) Realmuto 5/100 ($20 AAV) Trade Jansen, Hiraldo, Kay, & Adams for Lindor & Carrasco (if it costs more then upgrade Hiraldo to Groshans & remove Adams). Not sure if you only meant $50 on FA or total, but going with the former, this is what I would try and do. Would look like this after: 1. Bauer 2. Ryu 3. Carrasco 4. Ray 5. Pearson Depth: Stripling, Roark, Hatch Prospect depth: SWR, Manoah, Murray 1. Biggio 3B 2. Bichette 2B 3. Lindor SS 4. Hernandez RF/DH 5. Tellez DH/1B 6. Guerrero Jr 1B/3B 7. Gurriel Jr LF 8. Realmuto C 9. Grichuk CF Bench: Kirk C, Davis OF, Espinal IF Prospect depth: Martin CF, Groshans 3B*, Moreno C, Martinez SS/3B, Hiraldo IF* * Remove if traded for Lindor

I basically answered my own post in response to Spanky below similarly to yours hah. It is pretty crazy how much space we have. I assume they would rather overpay for shorter term or front load the contracts to get them reduced or off the books when it comes time to extend the core!

Flexible to that is my hope, but I wish we had any idea of a ballpark range. Looks like they're currently at roughly $70M. I think 2016 had a payroll of $163M roughly. So are we thinking a range between $130M - $160M? If so that could be an increase of anywhere from $60 - $90M. I don't actually expect them to go all the way to their 2016 payroll but would be interesting. If they hypothetically did spend that much, they could afford two of the top 4 FAs, Liam Hendricks, a SP reclamation like Kluber/Paxton, and some more BP help. Could be one helluva haul.

How much is Sugano projected to go for? If we sign him, do you believe we're likely out on the top names (Springer, Bauer, DJL, Realmuto)? There's definitely many scenarios we can improve but I'm curious what the max in payroll additions they have for 2021. Is it like 50M, less, or more? I have to think a combination of Sugano, one of the big 4, and Liam Hendricks would run north of that? One would think.

Wow that's exciting and right from the horses mouth!

Depends on where you think Austin Martin ends up. Most think he's the CF of the future, with Groshans & Martinez battling it out for 3B. Also seen analysts tease that he could easily debut in the majors this year.

Could also really front-load a Lindor deal and pay him 40M for the 1st few years and drop it down once you're ready to pay Bo, Vlad, Nate, etc.

And I would do that right now if it's possible. No need to even wait on Springer, because we could always go after Brantley to replenish LGJ if Springer signs with NYM.

I would do that deal too, even though I love Moreno. That's very light to me. I was thinking it would take something like below to land Darvish becaue of the 3 years of control and last 20 or so starts dating back to 2019. LGJ, Hiraldo, Kay Now I'm thinking above and maybe a couple sweeteners like Pardinho and Adams, could net us Lindor & Carrasco.