So true, everyone and I mean everyone over estimates prospects value.
I would say in past years if 2 prospects a team drafted in the 40 rounds made it to the big league as better than replacement level players that was a win-win for any team.
If you hit with 3-4 in a year, a team hit the f***ing jackpot but super rare and i mean super rare this has ever happened.
So to put things in perspective, the 20 players the Jays drafted this year, one might end being better than replacement level! AA got it right with trading prospects, keep the ones that are good, trade away prospects to fill holes whenever you can at any point!
I think the baseball draft of throwing around millions to first round talents gives a profound impression on baseball enthusiasts that every prospects in first 1-3 rounds are can't miss types of talent and assume they are as sure as the "real thing". Stats will show most will not crack AA or flame out at the MLB level due to over-hype, injuries, improper coaching, poor work ethic, improper nutrition, family issues, bad attitude, etc.
So many things stacked against a prospect to succeed and why the Jays undertook a training program for new draft prospects to hopefully put them on the right path to success!