nextyear

Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays and a happy, prosperous, and healthy New Year. http://thechronicleherald.ca/sites/default/files/Sherbrooke%20Christmas%20Scene.jpg?1442321970

Not really a bump. I just don't remember seeing this information being posted and didn't know where else to put it. However, in 2016 if Pennington plays well on the Angels we can continue to appreciate him

This is very old news (3 weeks old) but Cliff Pennington signed with the Angels on November 17th for $3.75 million over 2 years - http://www.torontosun.com/2015/11/17/pennington-leaves-blue-jays-to-sign-with-angels I appreciate Cliff Pennington's stay on the Blue Jays. He came in, didn't cause any clubhouse problems and played ok defensively when needed.

With Cliff Pennington gone to the Angels I think signing Darwin Barney is a very good move. Goins can fill in at 3rd, SS and 2B. Darwin Barney is excellent defensively at 2B and has won a gold glove. For me this makes a lot of sense; the Blue Jays now have Goins and Barney to fill in at 3rd, SS and 2B. Based on the Blue Jays injury situation at SS (Tulowitzki and Reyes were injured for many games) and 2B (Devon Travis was healthy for only 62 games) in 2015, the Blue Jays will need both.

It would have been great if David Price decided to give the Toronto Blue Jays a discount and a shorter contract for say 5 years. However, based on a baseball analyst that I heard on 590 AM, baseball players are under immense pressure from the player's union to take the top dollar since other player's contracts are based on recent contracts. I already knew this fact but it is sad to realize that this is reality in the MLB (and the NHL, NBA and NFL). I hope that the Red Sox will finish several games behind the Blue Jays in the standings but that David Price will do well. Who knows, maybe David Price will come back to the Blue Jays in 5 - 6 years.

I have to claim ignorance since I didn't follow baseball closely that year. But just looking at the stats their overall pitching/defense was the best in the AL in limiting runs allowed - http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=al&qual=0&type=0&season=2001&month=0&season1=2001&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=15,a which was partly because of a great defense - http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=fld&lg=al&qual=0&type=0&season=2001&month=0&season1=2001&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0 In all honesty I am just asking a question here: do you think their success at limiting runs was because of their excellent defense (based on the stats)? They also led the league in offense, scoring 927 runs in 162 games - http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=al&qual=0&type=8&season=2001&month=0&season1=2001&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=5,d. It helped their pitching/defense that they played in a pitcher friendly ball park - http://www.fangraphs.com/guts.aspx?type=pf&season=2001&teamid=0 Based strictly on the stats, the Mariners were a very well balanced team. Surprisingly, they lost the AL Championship to the Yankees 4 games to 1 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2001_American_League_Championship_Series. PS: I thought that maybe the Mariners played in a weak division in 2001, but actually it appears that the AL West was stronger than the AL East in 2001 - http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/standings/index.jsp?tcid=mm_mlb_standings#20011007

This doesn't mean much because they had a fantastic bullpen that compensated for their mediocre starting pitching. They were 1st in ERA for relievers - http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=al&qual=0&type=8&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=15,a and their relievers lead the AL in number of innings pitched with 539.1 innings. The Royals' starters pitched 912.2 innings, so their relievers pitched 37% of the innings (3.1 innings per game). In addition, their positional defense was by far the best - http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=fld&lg=al&qual=0&type=1&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0 Having a mediocre starting pitching rotation doesn't mean that the Royals' overall pitching/defense was mediocre. In any case, I think the Blue Jays will have a decent overall pitching/defense in 2016 and with their above average offense will have a good chance to get back into the playoffs.

Thank you. That is all that I wanted, a link.

I was responding to a remark that the Kansas City Royals had the 11th worst starting rotation in the league. Do you agree that the Kansas City Royals had the 11th worst starting rotation, and if you do, what stats would you use? I think that the Blue Jays can win with the current starting 5 pitchers, as I stated before.

Yes, I agree and pointed it out. However, he didn't give any source (link) that indicates that their starting rotation was 11th out of 15 AL teams. The fact that their runs allowed (RA) per game was 2nd best in the AL makes me doubt the claim that their starting pitching was 11th out of 15 teams. It might not have been 2nd best since their relievers were so good, but 11th ...? I would like to see the stats for their starting rotation (which would have changed throughout the year). I don't know where to find that stat; ERA just for the starters and ERA just for the relievers. (ERA is a team stat but it is valid when comparing pitchers on the same team)

I think you mean left field. Bautista is in right field.

Are you saying that if a team is good enough to make the playoffs, that who wins is a coins toss (good/bad luck)? This happens, the best team doesn't always win the World Series because of bad luck, but it seems that the best team wins more often than not. However, the best team isn't always the one with the best pitching/defense since sometimes the best team is the best balanced team, which is a combination of defense and offense.

This seems to be a misconception, unless it only refers to starting pitching and excludes relief pitchers (?). As a team, Kansas City was 3rd best in the AL in runs allowed (RA). The best was Houston with 618 runs allowed (RA) in 162 games, Cleveland was 640 RA in 161 games (3.98 runs/game) and Kansas City allowed 641 runs in 162 games (3.96 runs/game): so in terms of RA per game, Kansas City was 2nd best in the American League - http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/standings/index.jsp#20151004 .

Did he have any broken bones in his foot?

I checked to see how Dalton Pompey was doing in winter ball but he still isn't playing - http://www.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=l132&t=p_pbp&pid=592647 (he was added to the DL on Nov 7th but I am not sure why?) I checked his twitter account to see what is going on and he seems to be back in Toronto. I hope he doesn't have a serious injury, but if not, it is probably best for him as a player to just have a few months off to rest in the off-season. Winter ball didn't help him in 2015 based on the start of the 2015 MLB.

I had hoped David Price would be back but I can see why the Blue Jays don't want to pay $200+ million over 7 years. I think the Blue Jays rotation will be passable if they remain healthy. The Blue Jays started 2015 with Carrera and Colabello in LF, and Reyes at SS; even a pitching staff that is just equal to the staff at the start of 2015, will give up fewer runs because of the improved defense. If the Blue Jays pitching/team_defense can limit teams to 670 runs allowed (RA) over 162 games (as they did in 2015, for 5th best out of 15 AL teams) and even if they only score 800 runs over 162 games (whereas they scored 891 in 2015) then the Pythagorean equation predicts a 0.580 season in 2016, or 94 wins and 68 losses. This is based on winning percentage = (800^1.83)/[(800^1.83) + (670^1.83)] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pythagorean_expectation. I like the Blue Jays chances in 2016, especially if Stroman can pitch the entire 2016 season and the other pitchers remain relatively healthy throughout the season. I think strengthening the bullpen should now be given top priority.

Yes, good point. I would prefer park adjusted RA9 since it indicates that it is a team stat that includes runs scored due to errors. I will probably continue to use un-adjusted RA (because it is easy to look up), but when referring to a team such as Colorado Rockies state that their team RA number is inflated due to playing at Coors Field.

Is this stat listed somewhere? To be valid, it would have to include the home park factor for 81 games, and the park factor for each game that a team plays on the road since an AL East team plays more games in the EAST than in the Central and West, plus NL games.

Limiting runs allowed (RA) is partly pitching and partly team defense. Kansas City commits very few errors, which isn't included in ERA (it only includes earned runs). Maybe the Kansas City pitching staff would look bad with the Oakland A's defense behind them, but the Kansas City Royals defense (including pitchers) were 3rd in runs allowed. The link you provided was for NL and AL combined. It is best to just compare AL teams for which Kansas City was 3rd best in ERA - http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/team/_/stat/pitching/league/al . Toronto was 5th best, same as the runs allowed stat indicates. The NL has a lower ERA overall because pitchers hit instead of DH's.

Can you provide a reference for the team ERA stat? In terms of fewest runs allowed (RA), Kansas City was 3rd best: Houston was 1st at 618 RA in 162 games, Cleveland was 2nd best at 640, and Kansas City was 3rd at 641 runs allowed. Toronto was 5th best out of 15 teams at 670 runs allowed - http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/standings/index.jsp#20151004 Minimizing runs allowed through good pitching and good defense (allowing few unearned runs) is very important for winning teams, this is what the stats over the past 22 years have indicated. The worst team to win an AL championship since 1993 was the 2013 Boston Red Sox who were 6th best in runs allowed (RA). But even the Boston Red Sox were close to the top 5 teams in limiting runs allowed.

I wasn't being overly serious on that point Jimcanuck. But if you read the article it said that she enjoyed her work as a longshoreman. It is amazing what can set some people off on this forum. Just to quote you Jimcanuck, "You should get out more" But I am very curious as to why you highlighted the word "wonder" - what the heck is going through your mind?

Here is an interesting article on Jesse Chavez - http://www.sfchronicle.com/athletics/article/A-s-Jesse-Chavez-ignored-thin-chances-to-become-5387249.php?t=b6714efd7a3d4cb4da&cmpid=twitter-premium (it is an old story from April 2014 by Susan Slusser). I don't really remember Chavez from his Blue Jays days but it sounds like he has a fastball that is close to Aaron Sanchez in speed. The article indicates that "Jesse is just all skin and bones." at 160 lb 6'2", this will make Aaron Sanchez look like a hulk in comparison (I thought Sanchez was thin but he is listed at 200 lb 6'4"). I wonder if Chavez is prone to injuries at such a light weight, but maybe being light will lessen the chances of leg joint injury (he has less weight to carry). I wonder what Chavez's wife will do for a job in Toronto, there aren't many longshoreman jobs (although there is some shipping on the Great Lakes). It sounds like she likes driving big forklifts (Slusser refers to them as tractors) so there are many jobs like that around TO. that is one eye-catching avatar crazy47larry

Personally, I enjoyed watching Osuna pitch regularly out of the bullpen in 2015. Since he is only 20 years old and has already had Tommy John surgery, I can understand why the Blue Jays are worried about him being a starter. The Blue Jays will need a strong closer if they are to do well in 2016 and in my opinion Osuna is the closer. One reason that the Kansas City Royals did so well in 2015 was because of their dominant bullpen. They blew very few games that they led going into the 8th inning.

Looking at the fangraphs game log for 2015, it seems that Jesse Chavez have several very good games and several bad games - http://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=5448&position=P The Oakland A's made so many errors that maybe that negatively affected his confidence. An improved defense behind him might do wonders for his performance in 2016 with the Blue Jays. Or maybe it won't ... It certainly is a big step down from David Price though. I want to think positively and hope that Jesse Chavez will be as big a surprise as Marco Estrada.

Although that video has nothing to do with Kevin Pillar, it is the most interesting post in this thread by far (in my opinion). Possibly the best cat video ever. But maybe someone can post a better one? The Wilner vs Pillar Twitter Battle thread is running out of steam.