metafour

I'm not sure how you came to that conclusion. Greene is 20 years old; we traded Syndergaard as he was just coming off his age 19 season. The point? Its very likely that we would have handled Syndergaard the exact same way considering that he was in Lansing as a 19 year old. Sanchez is a totally different case as he quite obviously never showed the control to be rushed along anyway.

http://i.imgur.com/iVHfwLc.gif

Even with the write-off 2015 and majority of 2014, Cliff Lee has still produced 19 fWAR and 21.2 bWAR for the Phillies since 2011. If you account ~$6 million per win (Lewie Pollis actually had it at ~$7 mill per win in 2013), that pegs his value at $114-$127.2 million. Yes that contract was a major anchor this season; but throughout the life of it it really wasn't as bad as you paint it. During the years that the Phillies were realistically trying to contend (their "window"), Lee was actually providing surplus value for them over his $21-25 million per year salary. Their roster was never built to contend in ~2015 anyway.

Yup. Verlander is really an extreme example as pitchers of his caliber rarely just fall apart at age 30 like he did. Price has lots of characteristics which suggest that he should age well: low reliance on breaking balls, universally praised mechanics, and a good thin body that isn't likely to balloon and become a problem. I think that you can realistically expect him to be a strong to elite performer until age ~34/35, if that is the case then you're looking at 2 years that may be write-offs, and its not really out of line to suggest that he may still be useful during those years either. Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine were both fastball/changeup pitchers that were pitching at a high level all the way up to their mid to late 30's, for example.

You don't, but if you're arguing over top-end free agents who will all cost you a lot of money, its not hard to conclude that the one that gives your overall rotation a different look makes the most sense.

This team has zero LHP starters once Buehrle's tenure comes to an inevitable close. Not even in the forseeable minors after trading away Norris, Boyd, Labourt. For that reason alone Price makes more sense than say Cueto or Grienke.

Hamels' cutter is also plus. It is however interesting to see him throwing harder at 31/32 than he ever did all throughout his 20's.

No, they're not. They're both hard-throwing lefties...thats about it. Sabathia is fastball/slider whereas Price is fastball/changeup. Big, big difference.

I think that you're making quite a few assumptions, particularly on Price losing significant velocity after only 2-3 seasons. One could argue that since Price has pretty much been a four-seam/sinker/changeup pitcher his entire career, his arm should maintain itself longer than most as it has not been used to snap off violent breaking balls (ie: sliders). Roughly 25% of Sabathia's pitches thrown since PitchFX started tracking in 2007 have been sliders. On the contrary, less than 3% of Price's pitches thrown during that same time frame have been sliders. He more or less never throws the pitch, therefore trying to use Sabathia (a heavy slider pitcher) as proof that Price will fall apart at the same rate seems quite silly. A more realistic comparison would be Cole Hamels; another fastball/changeup pitcher who at nearly 32 is not only maintaining velocity, he is actually throwing harder NOW than he was 5-6 years ago.

"Bad luck" yo.

97 mph Sanchez fastball misses down the middle to Texeira, all he can do is foul it back. That is the buffer zone that certain pitchers have over others.

What my numbers support is the fact that Sanchez has a significantly better fastball, hence why for him "missing his spots" is nowhere near as detrimental as it would be to someone like Hutchison. Its like having a 10-inch dick. Even if you have no idea WTF you're doing, you'll still impress.

Sanchez can get away with it, because he's really really lucky.... ... ... ... ... ... J/K, he can get away with it because the primary fastball comparison is as follows: Sanchez: 95.32 mph, -9.51 inches horizontal movement (in towards RHB) .233 BAA, .331 SLG, 0.098 ISO, .252 BABIP Hutchison: 93.15 mph, -4.40 inches horizontal movement (in towards RHB) .280 BAA, .466 SLG, .0.186 ISO, .329 BABIP http://www.bluejaysplus.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/SanchezApr22K.gif

I remember my first time reading Moneyball....

Its common sense, but hard for statistics to quantify. What is more hittable? A ~92mph meatball hanging up in the zone (Hutchison) or a 96mph heavy sinking ball (Sanchez)? Even if Sanchez misses with his fastball down the middle of the plate, the pitch is harder to hit well. Well hit balls are more likely to actually result in hits, are they not? FIP tries to categorize every ball put in play as equal when the reality of the situation is that good pitches are obviously going to produce worse contact, which will lead to more outs. It is why regardless of strikeouts, the best pitchers in the league always give up less hits than the worst pitchers, year in and year out. Hutchison actually strikes more guys out than Stroman did last season, yet he gives up way more hits and ultimately more runs. Its not because Stroman is "more lucky" on balls put in play, its because Huthison throws way more poor pitches due to his poor command, and those poor pitches get hit. All it takes is ONE poor pitch in an at bat for a hit to occur. Hutchison strikes guys out because he generally has good stuff; but in the real world it doesn't matter if he throws two perfect pitches which result in swinging strikes, if he then follows that up with a horrendous pitch that is lined for a double. That is why FIP thinks that he's a "good" pitcher: it has no way of accounting for his inconsistency from pitch to pitch.

This is why teams still have heavy scouting departments and don't just employ a bunch of stat nerds. The game of baseball isn't played in a computer simulated environment. The problem is that FIP has zero ability to recognize the quality of a pitcher's stuff coming out of his hand; which is why "fielder independent pitching" is flawed. A guy who constantly hangs flat fastballs up over the heart of the plate will give up hits. The idea that a pitcher has zero control over balls put in play is erroneous: good pitches, even if they are hit, are far less likely to actually land as hits than poor pitches. FIP has no way of accounting for this. Its comical that FIP actually rates Estrada and Hutchison as essentially equal this season. Actually watching the game paints a much different picture.

Jays President?

Does a real man also not understand the difference between your and you're?

Volquez needs to spend more time worrying about his hairline than he does about what other players are doing on the field.

"Nobody wants Alberto Tirado" - Said like 4 days ago.

He hasn't really been throwing incredibly hard for a while now. He's low 90's, touching mid 90's right now as he appears to have dialed it back in order to improve control.

It would be up to the area scout and scouting staff to get him signed. AA really isn't negotiating with any 3rd round pick.