metafour

Jordan Groshans did get mentioned pre-draft as a target of ours; albeit the surprise that they made that pick was still real. He didn't really come "out of nowhere". Both Warmoth and Pearson were 100% known targets - so this really isn't as much of a guessing game as you seem to think. Even with Bo Bichette, our high interest was brought up several times by Keith Law of all people, and Bichette was a 2nd round guy.

He has been in minor league spring training in Dunedin this whole time; of course he is starting in the GCL.

He pitched only 67 innings in 2011 and sat out the rest of the year with a shoulder injury. In 2012, he pitched a full season but his performance was noticeably down, as was his velocity (about ~2 mph lower than his typical ~95 avg during his actual dominant seasons). Strong indication that this was already a sign that he was breaking, if not outright pitching through another injury. Then we traded for him and in 2013 he got even worse and then got OFFICIALLY hurt again. Again, you have to look at what you are buying. The recent snapshot was showing clear signs to be worried about. Signs that should override whatever the hell he was doing 3-4-5 years prior with Miami.

There is an optimal way to spend money: its called not trading for guys who are 30+ with obvious injury risk who you will have to pay tens of millions of dollars to because the team you are buying them from just overpaid out the ass to sign them a year prior. Who in their right mind was "surprised" that Josh Johnson got hurt? If you knew anything about the player, you wouldn't have been. Kind of like how anyone with a brain should have been able to see that Troy Tulowitzki would pose a high risk of being a bad investment.

Again, read the remainder of what I wrote. The sheer amount of payroll they added there FORCED them to "get creative" (ie: desperate) to later improve the roster after those moves didn't push the needle as much as they thought. So no, it wasn't a good trade because it put us in payroll hell. A big reason why the Dickey trade was even made was because his age meant that he would sign for a team-friendly deal because he didn't have the leverage to ask for more...so the IDEA was that they were getting a "Cy Young pitcher" at a cost that could fit within Rogers' budget.

Uhhh, what? They both signed with a s*** team (Miami) in a non-tradition baseball market because they offered the most money. Neither of those two chose Miami because it is some "attraction" destination for MLB free agents. Using that logic, you don't think they would have signed here had we offered a bit more money? Guys like AJ Burnett and BJ Ryan DID sign here under similar situations.

He could have signed Buehrle and Reyes for nothing but money just a year prior, instead he PAID Miami in prospect capital to take a year of their surplus value and then dump the monstrosity of their contracts onto us. Reyes and Josh Johnson were known high-risk players: Reyes being a speed-driven player who was bound to fall apart at any moment due to his collection of injuries and age, and Josh Johnson who already had TJ surgery two-years prior and shoulder inflammation the year prior in a season wherein he was already showing cracks. They were poor risks to take; just like it was a poor risk to expect Tulowitzki to do anything other than completely fall apart. The ramification of that trade stretches far beyond just the assets given up as that deal alone added a hilarious amount of payroll that barely pushed the needle. This is the exact reason why he then went into that the following season (a "contention year") with clear desperation moves like pushing Osuna and Castro from A-ball to the MLB bullpen, rushing Norris into the rotation, rushing Pompey into the OF, etc. Those moves were made because we had holes to fill on the roster but no money to do so in free agency, because he spent it all the year prior and didn't get anywhere near his money's worth. Even Buehrle who was a "success" wasn't exactly giving much surplus value as he was paid something like ~$16 mill a year. Rogers wouldn't give him any more money to spend so he was forced to rush prospects up. Osuna ended up being a huge success, but the other three were flops predictably as they had no business being thrown into their roles (like Castro essentially being the 8th-inning set-up man LMAO).

Are you f***ing retarded? That proposed deal supposedly happened a full year+ earlier. Which kind of matters because it IMPACTS HOW MUCH VALUE DONALDSON WOULD PROVIDE TO HIS NEW TEAM. The more WAR a player is expected to contribute, the more a team is willing to give up to acquire him. Is this clicking for you? They only got Merryweather because Donaldson was traded AFTER the deadline, and hadn't even played in months and was coming straight off an injury. That means that he was actually valued even LESS than a typical rental...because he played in even fewer games for his acquiring team. They didn't actually think that Merryweather was a better package you idiot. They settled for the best return they could get. No s***, they should have traded him for more a year earlier. Brilliant deduction. The argument is whether or not they had clearance from Rogers to make that move when they clearly wanted to ride the attendance train as long as possible.

They found a "sucker" in Atkins - a guy that came out of the same f***ing organization - who would know all about Merryweather (he was even in PLAYER DEVELOPMENT in Cleveland LMAO) and apparently how much he sucks? Yeah, that makes total sense. The more logical conclusion is that Cleveland liked him for some particular reason, enough to not give a s*** about a whopping 70 f***ing innings in AAA, and Atkins being FROM THAT ORGANIZATION, would have known the same f***ing information. Is this too complicated for you?

Kirby is rightfully questioned because he plays considerably lower competition than the other top college pitchers - therefore his gaudy numbers are pointless to compare to the other guys.

Blaze Jordan just reclassified to the 2020 class - slots in at #21 on Fangraphs' current board. He becomes the youngest in the class (17.5) and features potentially plus-plus power, although he is supposedly a 1B only type.

Apparently they were supposed to get a Top 100 prospect for Sung-whatever Oh...an erratic reliever we literally pulled off the scrap-heap months prior who went on a hot streak. Literally no one wants to move top prospects anymore, and here we are nitpicking on the returns for guys like Curtis Granderson and Aaron Loup LMFAO. Happ and Donaldson are literally the only legitimate gripes you can actually make a case over. I wouldn't have targeted Drury, but he's been tricking teams into believing that he's an impact type player for years now for whatever reason - including the Yankees. The Donaldson situation unfolded as badly as possible - they knew they should have moved him a year earlier, and I fully believe that they wanted to.

Why would the Indians keep a "non-prospect" who "twice bombed out of AAA" on their 40 man roster? An interesting choice from a team who built an entire rotation off of guys that no one thought were anything. Those are quite the conclusions that you are making about a guy that hasn't pitched a single MLB inning, so how exactly are you concluding that he "gets taken to the woodshed against advanced hitters" LMFAO. hE GaVe Up 105 hITs in 78 INNinGs thOUgh.

Fangraphs:

No offense, but college baseball fans are literally useless as a "source" on the signability of high school prospects. For one, very few of them know anything about the MLB draft in general, and secondly, they are highly biased towards whatever school they support. So no s***, Florida Gator fans think that he's going to make it to campus. The reality? If he's a first round pick, there is a 95%+ chance that he's signing. And if there was actually talk about him not signing, why has it not been reported by any draft writer who would certainly know more about the situation than Joe Schmoe the Gators fan? We already know that Al Leiter's kid has a $4+ million dollar tag that makes him a difficult sign...I haven't heard anything about obscene demands from Allen, which means that he should be signable. None of this matters as he is highly unlikely to be in play for us at #11 anyway.

Actually, the idea of "strong" and "weak" MLB drafts has more or less proven to be a false narrative because apart from being able to judge the relative strength of the first 20 or so picks, everything after that generally tends to even out on a year to year basis due to the unpredictable nature of evaluating baseball prospects. This supposedly terrible college pitching class will inevitably produce at least one pitcher taken after the first two rounds who ends up being an above average MLB regular. It happens every year. It has been shown that they can do a fairly good job of judging the overall strength of the TOP prospects on a year to year basis, but even something like the last pick in the first round shows fairly consistent success rates regardless of how "strong" or "weak" the draft is perceived to be.

The Iceman must really think he is smarter than everyone else. Rosen? Josh Rosen? Who? LMFAO.

Dwight Smith Jr. with the Golden Sombrero. wRC+ down to 107 going into today (and will be lower tomorrow). Defense grading out at a huge negative. BB and K rates completely pedestrian. No OBP to speak of. LOL @ all the clowns jumping around a few weeks ago as if we'd given up an All-Star. He'll end the season as a 4th outfielder type...just as expected.

Guessing "starter ceilings" is pointless, and if you look at scouting reports vs. "projected ceilings" they often don't even make logical sense. Jackson Rutledge is 95-98+ while flashing two plus breaking balls...uhmm, if that clicks, he is obviously AT LEAST a #2 starter LMAO. Some reports even have his changeup as plus at times. I'd say the same for Manoah who feature two 65-grade pitches; a guy like that can pick up a changeup and grossly surpass whatever "mid-rotation starter" label you'll see thrown onto him. Look at stuff; not a guesstimated "projected rotational ceiling" that is wrong 90% of the time anyway. At the end of the day rotational ceiling comes down to values that are unpredictable.

That means that they aren't leaning on anything. Who had us "leaning" on Groshans last year? Exactly.

Short season rosters aren't announced until after the draft.

Brilliant idea Todd - just use all of your top picks on the least predictable prospects (pitchers). You should definitely look to fill needs with MLB draft picks. Thanks for the sweet post man.

We are kind of in a blah position because unless something weird happens, we are more or less picking first among essentially the 3rd tier of prospects. It looks like a zero chance of Bleday being there, and a slim chance of Bishop being there (and even that is prob. a stretch given his overall athleticism + power + production this year). Corbin Carroll looks like the highest "rated" prospect who could potentially get pushed down to us. Jung, Thompson, and Busch are all completely underwhelming picks IMO. In that scenario I would rather just do what we did last year and "reach" for a HS bat that we like who will sign for a discount. Brett Baty is old as s*** but I'd rather take him than Jung who's bat is still largely a product of hype (his power doesn't seem to actually show up). This draft looked a lot better for us back when Misner was looking like a legit top 11 pick because it assured us one of those guys being there.

His name is Yeinier Cano; MLB.com placed him 2nd on their IFA list (ahead of Yolbert Sanchez who they have 5th). http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2018/?list=int

The money that they acquired is for the 2018 class. Who are they signing? Who knows. MLB.com just threw out a report on some new 25 year old Cuban reliever that just came on the market who could be MLB ready next year.