metafour
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Everything posted by metafour
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Thats great that you don't agree. LaCava's "focus" is on amateur scouting and it always has been. It was that under Anthopolous as well. He is the defacto "boss" of whoever the Scouting Director is, albeit that Shapiro's front office's are always built around input from everyone.
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Tony LaCava is the executive who ultimately oversees the draft, not any of the guys you named (and definitely not Shapiro). The foundation was built before Sanders got here, and while its obvious that he was a star in the making, you're kinda out to lunch if you think that our entire amateur scouting acumen went out the door with Cherington and Sanders.
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There is a small chance they don't take him, but under that scenario it is believed that they would take Asa Lacy, not Martin.
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You don't need to apologize. Where MLB.com ranks Gonzales and Meyer is pretty irrelevant as the only thing that matters is the team's own ranking. Keith Law for example has Meyer 4th and Gonzales 7th.
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If they take Meyer over Gonzales, then it is because they think he is the better player. They should not pass on the better player because there are pitchers avaiable in the 2nd round.
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Because taking anything other than the best player available player at #5 as per your internal rankings is dumb and is asking for trouble, because you are now entering the realm of overthinking or trying to "fill needs". Under your premise, why can't they just take a pitcher with both picks, if the pitcher is the best player available?
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But Asa Lacy's overall control and command took a big step forward, and that is a big part of pitching. He was never lacking stuff. That isn't a valid comparison to Gonzales who is diminutive and without a swing that indicates big power output - he can't learn to grow taller, and while he could entirely rework his swing, he obviously isn't going to do that nor would anyone even suggest it. Exactly, which is why I said him playing in more games would be unlikely to raise his draft stock...because the things that scouts are looking at with him aren't things that are "overturned" by playing in more games.
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But the Cape Cod performance doesn't prove that he's going to be a masher at the MLB level, and his upside is ultimately going to depend on how much power he hits for. No one really questions his ability to hit. It's entirely possible that he really is this elite talent that goes on to become a star player, but his stock has "leveled down" because they've analyzed his swing and looked at the exit velocities...and it doesn't look like teams believe this 5'10 190 pound kid is going to be blasting homeruns against MLB pitching.
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Why? You think teams put any weight in his college numbers? They've already seen him beat up on complete no-name competition; he's going Top 10 because of his scouted tools, not because of his "stats" - therefore his stats wouldn't have made any further improvement on his stock. Teams don't buy into his power numbers because of his swing and exit velocity - with analytics taking over scouting, no one cares if he hits 5 HR's against a team that went 7-45 last season at 3,900 feet elevation.
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I'm not going to even pretend to be an expert on pitching mechanics. Can you prove that you aren't just looking for things to not like? Because no one else is really that concerned about his delivery.
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Anyone have access to this? Probably relevant for us, being a data-driven team:
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Its an explosive delivery as you would expect from a highly athletic pitcher who generates unprecedented velocity relative to size. Explosive does not necessarily mean bad. His delivery is very sound, and he throws strikes consistently which means that he's not just winding back like an idiot to throw as hard as he can.
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Do you really think that MLB teams cooled on him because of 4 starts? That isn't what happened. He has cooled because his pitching metrics aren't what is "in" right now according to pitching data. You can argue the legitimacy of that, but its something that would likely be the case regardless of what his ERA was in those 4 starts.
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I wasn't talking about you specifically, it was just a general statement as it seems like some people are kinda failing to see the logic as to how Meyer could EASILY be better than Hancock. I don't think the fact that mocks are picking up "Meyer to Toronto" really implies smokescreen at all. Last year, Manoah to Toronto was consistently mocked as the pick right before the draft - and it was 100% accurate. Their interest in Warmoth (and even Pearson) was also very openly known predraft, and he was selected in the back third of the first round (not in the Top 5 where its much easier to connect players to teams). I can see the logic in either player.
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Meyer's two best pitches are better than Hancock's two best pitches. I don't see what could possibly be "fishy" about any of this. They showed last year that they aren't afraid to take a "two-pitch" pitcher; I bet they believe just like with Manoah that Minnesota calling mainly fastball/slider with Meyer isn't indicative of his ability to throw a changeup. It might all be a smokescreen, but I'm kinda confused as to some of the reasoning brought here to downplay Max Meyer. Is this the first time ever that a guy with two 70+ pitches, premium athleticism, and legitimate control would somehow be considered a "disappointing" draft pick lmao? If they like Veen over Gonzales and Meyer over Hancock, it kinda sounds to me that they prefer upside with that pick as both of the players they "like" are on-paper higher upside players.
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No, he's black. He is the son of Tracy Rocker who was an Outland Trophy winning DT at Auburn, and is currently the DL coach at South Carolina.
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Martin has much more defensive value and his contact skills are more proven due to SEC play. Gonzales proved himself in the Cape Cod league, but at the end of the day they might be similar hitters with Martin having more overall value.
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Your premise is correct, but both Hoffman and Pentecost would in reality fall under both categories. Its hard to argue that either of those two didn't have "high upside" - Hoffman was the guy who could have gone #1 overall pre-injury, and Pentecost was a "5-tool catcher" with all-star upside.
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Kiley McDaniel player comps for a few top prospects: https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/29266064/the-next-pete-alonso-mlb-star-comparisons-top-2020-draft-prospects
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Who is this guy and does he actually have any sources? Literally days before he started expressing this "Hancock is off the board" perspective he was Tweeting about how it was all a smokescreen and how Hancock was their guy at #5. He seems to say a lot of things under the notion that something will stick. I've never heard of this guy before this year's draft, but I'm intrigued as to what sources this guy from a third-tier baseball website has. He proclaimed in one of his Tweets that SHAPIRO was high on Owen Caissie. Like he "knows" about the Team President being high on an obscure Canadian HS prospect lol.
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Its analytics w/ Hancock. He doesn't fit some of the current pitching models. Teams don't appear to like RHP who rely on a changeup over a breaking ball as much anymore; and Hancock also throws more of a 2-seam fastball with lower spin than the "rising" fastball that models are advocating.
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In before we take Tyler Soderstrom.
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Robert Hassell has received some Drew Waters comps - I wouldn't be mad at all if we popped him at #5 underslot, not that it looks like thats an option off of what we've been told.
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Would a comparison to a 6-7 WAR player make sense? Probably not.