metafour
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Everything posted by metafour
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Its gonna be pretty awkward after this draft when everyone is gonna have to love Keith Law LMAO.
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What the f*** is Baltimore doing LMAO?
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He's really not. Poor breaking ball spin from him. Pitching models don't like him at all. Super overrated by MLB.com.
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Tanner Witt for me.
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This. There isn't a chance in hell Boras is letting this kid sign for anything below $7 million.
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His commitment to going to college was strong back when he was ranked in the 100's which would put him in the ~3rd/4th round - he could very easily change that decision AND take underslot at #17. This is astronomically higher than where anyone thought he'd go, it will change his plans entirely. I don't buy that the Red Sox are punting this pick on purpose. With no #2 pick, they could rank this kid much higher than industry consensus and see an opportunity to save money here which will let them spend big elsewhere down the line to make up the loss of the #2 pick.
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Jim, no kid is going to be dumb enough to turn down millions of dollars at the #5 slot because "Canada".
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Watch out for Boras demands with Martin here.
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Thats great that you don't agree. LaCava's "focus" is on amateur scouting and it always has been. It was that under Anthopolous as well. He is the defacto "boss" of whoever the Scouting Director is, albeit that Shapiro's front office's are always built around input from everyone.
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Tony LaCava is the executive who ultimately oversees the draft, not any of the guys you named (and definitely not Shapiro). The foundation was built before Sanders got here, and while its obvious that he was a star in the making, you're kinda out to lunch if you think that our entire amateur scouting acumen went out the door with Cherington and Sanders.
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There is a small chance they don't take him, but under that scenario it is believed that they would take Asa Lacy, not Martin.
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You don't need to apologize. Where MLB.com ranks Gonzales and Meyer is pretty irrelevant as the only thing that matters is the team's own ranking. Keith Law for example has Meyer 4th and Gonzales 7th.
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If they take Meyer over Gonzales, then it is because they think he is the better player. They should not pass on the better player because there are pitchers avaiable in the 2nd round.
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Because taking anything other than the best player available player at #5 as per your internal rankings is dumb and is asking for trouble, because you are now entering the realm of overthinking or trying to "fill needs". Under your premise, why can't they just take a pitcher with both picks, if the pitcher is the best player available?
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But Asa Lacy's overall control and command took a big step forward, and that is a big part of pitching. He was never lacking stuff. That isn't a valid comparison to Gonzales who is diminutive and without a swing that indicates big power output - he can't learn to grow taller, and while he could entirely rework his swing, he obviously isn't going to do that nor would anyone even suggest it. Exactly, which is why I said him playing in more games would be unlikely to raise his draft stock...because the things that scouts are looking at with him aren't things that are "overturned" by playing in more games.
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But the Cape Cod performance doesn't prove that he's going to be a masher at the MLB level, and his upside is ultimately going to depend on how much power he hits for. No one really questions his ability to hit. It's entirely possible that he really is this elite talent that goes on to become a star player, but his stock has "leveled down" because they've analyzed his swing and looked at the exit velocities...and it doesn't look like teams believe this 5'10 190 pound kid is going to be blasting homeruns against MLB pitching.
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Why? You think teams put any weight in his college numbers? They've already seen him beat up on complete no-name competition; he's going Top 10 because of his scouted tools, not because of his "stats" - therefore his stats wouldn't have made any further improvement on his stock. Teams don't buy into his power numbers because of his swing and exit velocity - with analytics taking over scouting, no one cares if he hits 5 HR's against a team that went 7-45 last season at 3,900 feet elevation.
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I'm not going to even pretend to be an expert on pitching mechanics. Can you prove that you aren't just looking for things to not like? Because no one else is really that concerned about his delivery.
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Anyone have access to this? Probably relevant for us, being a data-driven team:
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Its an explosive delivery as you would expect from a highly athletic pitcher who generates unprecedented velocity relative to size. Explosive does not necessarily mean bad. His delivery is very sound, and he throws strikes consistently which means that he's not just winding back like an idiot to throw as hard as he can.
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Do you really think that MLB teams cooled on him because of 4 starts? That isn't what happened. He has cooled because his pitching metrics aren't what is "in" right now according to pitching data. You can argue the legitimacy of that, but its something that would likely be the case regardless of what his ERA was in those 4 starts.