metafour

Wow, you're such a big strong man! Thank you for allowing me to post on YOUR glorious forum.

What the hell is going on with the censorship on this forum? Delete that post if you don't want people talking about political discourse. You don't get to have your cake, and eat it too. You are either going to allow open discourse on the topic, or ALL mention of it will be removed. Get rid of that f***ing Biggio BLM post.

It makes entirely perfect sense. The argument that you guys are presenting is that Torkelson is fully deserving of the #1 slot, and thus giving him say "only" ~$8.1 million is "dicking him around". So much so, that supposedly he could just go back to school and get the full slot next year as a Senior (he absolutely wouldn't, in fact he'd get low-balled regardless of what records he broke). By the same logic, I think we'd all agree that Martin is "worthy" of the full #2 slot, especially when there is an argument to be made that he's just as good a prospect or better than Torkelson depending on the parameters one looks at. He obviously wanted the full slot from Baltimore - and dropped past their pick because of it. So following that thought process, we dicked Martin around by not meeting his demands, because we in fact didn't even give him the slot value of the #3 overall pick ($7.22 million). Saying that he got the 2nd highest bonus doesn't disprove this line of logic, as my argument isn't resting on Detroit hypothetically low-balling Torkelson in any way - my only claim was that giving him the full #1 slot was unnecessarily caving and that a more data-driven team would have maximized the bargaining power that inherently comes with the holding the #1 overall pick, which they didn't do. But my argument is that Detroit would still be offering him $8+ million, with Adley Rutschman's bonus last year as the barometer for Detroit's hypothetical offer. They just went ahead and gave him $300K+ more than what Rutschman signed for last year, and they really didn't have to do that, nor did they make a smart move by not doing more diligent negotiating. Torkelson really has no legitimate bargaining power in turning down $8+ million, just like Martin had no real bargaining power in turning down $7 million from us even though it was less than what he obviously was hoping to receive.

Its not confused at all. Had Detroit given Torkelson a little bit more than what Rutschman received last year, he still would have been the highest paid player in this draft - by over a million dollars. Thats the entire reason why virtually every #1 pick under the current system signs for under-slot: even under-slot at #1 is more than anyone else is going to get, and its more than what the player would receive the following year as well. We did not dick anyone around. Frasso was signed for an amount that he agreed upon before even being selected. Thats how these things work under the current system.

I had an entire post lined up to respond to this that could axed as I was trying to post it. No, Torkelson would not have made any more money next season as a Senior with no leverage. He would have almost certainly lost money. No team is going to give a Senior the #1 overall slot when they have zero reason to. They don't even give the full slot to Juniors (which is the entire point of this discussion). Playing the market appropriately is not "dicking" anyone around. Austin Martin was every bit "deserving" of the full #2 overall slot ($7.79 million) on talent and yet we "only" gave him $7 million. Were we "dicking him around"? We could have easily punted the Trent Palmer pick entirely and paid Martin the full #2 slot like he wanted from Baltimore. We of course didn't, because we accurately understood that $7 million was a fair offer and that he'd be foolish to test the waters for more money next season. Even Boras understood that. Also, you're out to lunch if you think that the slot values are going to increase next year. They stayed the same from 2019 to 2020 and are obviously tied to league financial performance. We're playing a 60-game season...why the hell would MLB and the Owners agree to INCREASE the amateur slots next year? If anything, the slots will DROP to reflect the shortened season.

Does it matter? Probably not, but a smart organization strives to squeeze out every efficiency available to them, down to the last drop. Is Detroit a smart organization? What they did was pointless and to no benefit of themselves. I don't believe that any offer similar to what Rutschman signed for last year would be "jerking Torkelson around", especially considering that he offers virtually no defensive value. The fact that he even went 1-1 as a RHB 1B-type is already a "record breaking" draft moment. I never claimed it was some colossal mistake - but it sure as s*** wasn't optimal planning and negotiation.

It was full slot value - but the power behind the 1st overall pick is an assigned slot so high that its silly to just hand the whole thing over, which is why it rarely happens. Adley Rutschman set a new bonus record last year at $8.1 million, with the same slot value ($8.42 mill) as this year's 1st overall pick. Detroit just kind of blew that record out of the water with the full slot, and is Torkelson even a better prospect than Rutschman? I think that any time you hand over the full slot at #1, you are absolutely caving, because what power does the player actually have? I'm not really surprised because Detroit isn't exactly a "creative thinking" organization, but it really wasn't the best move to optimize their return.

What exactly was the logic with Detroit caving in to Boras like that on Torkelson?

And what, Grichuk isn't a hard worker and doesn't have a desire to win? Are you only a hard worker if you take every opportunity possible to beat everyone over the head with how supposedly "hard working and competitive" you are?

I know everyone wants him to "get in shape", but if you look at those photos of him as a kid and analyze his overall physical frame as an adult: what you see is what you're going to get. Dude is just naturally going to be the shape that you see, period. His ass and hips are massive. He actually carries his weight pretty well (which is why he's still able to show some athleticism), but the idea that he's going to "diet" his way down to some ripped physique is prosperous. Genetic predisposition and skeletal structure are very much a real thing.

Because the $97,500 he received is more than the $20,000 he would have received as an undrafted signing. By agreeing to take less, he earned more. Zach Britton was not a Top 200 ranked talent - we overdrafted him by a few rounds in order to save money, hence the reduced bonus.

Van Eyk was a great value pick (talent relative to signing bonus), especially if you consider that he could have potentially gone much higher had COVID not shut the season down. He seems to be fairly underrated by message-board standards and I'm not sure why - there's some obvious control concerns there, but he flashes 3 plus pitches and plus pitch metrics.

This regime's draft planning and execution is absurdly good. They have signed EVERY Top 10 round draft pick they have made. Every single one.

5th round pick Carter Baumler is a HS pitcher who will get $1+ million as well.

Max Meyer signing for $6.7 million assures that Martin would be the 2nd highest paid player in the draft - so he's still getting paid like the "#2 pick". There is virtually zero upside in him turning down a ~$7 million offer.

If he wants him to sign to an amount like the first overall, he should have gone first overall. He didn't. I'm not "worried" because there isn't any real incentive for him to not sign for what will ultimately be an over-slot offer somewhere in the slot value of 3rd overall. We will not forfeit draft picks to sign him.

Its a joke comment which is meant to parody the overly simplistic reasoning that was brought up as "analysis" for why Asa Lacy supposedly isn't good (a conclusion which isn't even true by any measure of comparison). Thats kinda the entire point: if Nick Gonzales is such an elite hitter, and Asa Lacy supposedly isn't any good...how are you gonna strike out on three straight fastballs? If you want a bigger sample size of performance against recognizable talents...as per Mason McRae:

Its the opposite for me: apart from the control concerns which are legitimate albeit hardly so concerning that it overwrites the entire package (especially considering that he was showing much improved control this year), I don't see how you can NOT see the hype. Its elite stuff and elite performance in the best conference in baseball; and he has absolutely dominated an entire slew of elite hitters that wound up as first round picks. His entire package would look elite if he was a RHP too, but he has the added bonus of also being a LHP. I think its lazy analysis to lump him in with a handful of LHP that failed and then make a blanket statement suggesting that there is some inherent flaw with drafting LHP highly. Yes, there IS a tendency of collegiate LHP being pushed up the board because they are LHP, but if you look at the actual stuff on top of the raw performance, you would be foolish to suggest that this is the case with Lacy. You state that David Price is an exception because he went 1st overall, but fail to consider that Lacy was playing so well prior to the season being cancelled that he actually had a real shot of working into 1st overall discussion (Detroit's 2nd option behind Torkelson was also strongly rumored to be Lacy, not Martin or anyone else). I'm not suggesting that Asa Lacy is David Price, but he's certainly in a completely different stratosphere to Tyler Jay, or frankly all of the other names on that list you named. When you look at the H/9, SO/9, and even HR/9 comparisons of Lacy vs. say Hancock, you immediately see how much more electric Lacy's stuff actually is.

Asa Lacy really bad. Nick Gonzales really good. He struck him out on 3 f***ing fastballs lmao. RHB vs. LHP.

We're in 2020 - "pitching metrics" have nothing to do with K:BB rates lmao. Were you the one in the Pre-Draft podcast who was pulling up K and BB rates as an actual scouting benchmark? The entire Asa Lacy segment of that podcast was horrendous. I think I also learned that "Max Meyer doesn't strike anyone out".

They did use the money later though. They gave Coby Mayo (4th round) $1.75 million and Carter Baumler (5th round) $1.5 million. Both HS players.

Yes, they obviously really like Palmer and he wasn't a "money saving" pick. Analysis on that pick after the fact has suggested that analytics are big on him, which is probably what drove the selection. Hard to really compare that selection with those other guys you named without seeing what they all ultimately sign for. For instance, Cole Wilcox is going to get a hell of a lot more than $850K (think first round money) so he wasn't really an option regardless. I'd imagine that Blaze Jordan gets over $1 million easily as well.

It'll end up being something like $7.2 - $7.5 million. They'll sign all the other picks leaving just that amount for him, and it will be enough because he'll still end up being the second highest player in the draft. The allocation of money has already been determined. CJ Van Eyk is supposedly getting above slot too (probably not by much). The 3rd and 4th pick will be underslot.

I really have no idea what they were thinking of doing. If the plan was to take Bitsko, the idea is that you coordinate that with him and then he goes and tells every other team he wants some absurd amount, which guarantees he'll drop to your pick. It kinda just sounds like they hoped he would fall to them? Bitsko seems like a smart career-oriented kid (see: his reclassification), I wouldn't be surprised if he wouldn't commit to pushing himself to Baltimore of all places. A team like Tampa is waaaaay more equipped to develop him.