metafour

Jarold Montealto from Nicaragua signed with the Jays:

His stuff grades out as elite, and the performance is obviously elite. Whether that holds year over year is to be seen, but I'm not understanding this weird push to try to downplay him.

He had an ~11 game stretch immediately after being traded wherein he hit almost all of those doubles. Since then, the XBH's have slowed down considerably once again. I don't think that MLB teams would have valued him much differently over a sample that small, given how extensive his lapse in power has been.

Dumbo lets all the clear strikes pass by without swinging and then swings and weakly grounds out on ball 4. I was actually amazed that he didn't just pop up on the first pitch he saw.

But you are overrating the prospects dealt, otherwise why would you still be bringing that trade up as some sort of "what if" scenario? If you actually evaluate those prospects AT THE TIME OF THE TRADE: Martin was showing no defensive value and was not hitting well in AA, all he was doing was drawing walks and swinging a noodle bat. Keith Law was CONSTANTLY stating that SWR's upside was that of a reliever, and this was at the time of the trade. If you remember, he was struggling heavily and his stuff was down. Both players fell out of any Top 100 prospect discussion. Again, this was at the time of the trade. If the website writers were coming to these conclusions, I highly doubt that actual teams were seeing "star prospects" in either of these two. Martin in particular seemed to be getting far too much benefit of the doubt, as if people were afraid to "write him off" despite the fact that he was showing very very concerning issues for a supposed "elite hitter". So you don't even need to look at the prospects "in hindsight", because what you see now is basically the same or worse to what was seen when they were actually dealt. SWR was doing much better in AA this season and was recently promoted to AAA, but I just looked at a Twins forum out of curiosity and some of the reports suggest that he's been ~88-91 with his fastball this season. Everything else still looks the same: concerns relating to his delivery, and a breaking ball that flashes above average, but seems to be too easy to pick up out of his hand. From the Twins perspective, it really looks like they got a ~#5 starter and a utility hitter with no power who can't field any position better than average for 1.5 years of Berrios, who at the time was still a ~3+ WAR starter.

But this doesn't make sense given your complaint. Actual team evaluation of "prospect value" is always ahead of the internet reporting, but even given that understanding both of those "top prospects" we traded were dropped significantly immediately after the trade by pretty much everyone. Neither player was performing well, and neither player was a "Top 100" prospect. So what exactly do you think they could have been traded for, that was "more" than Berrios? You are severely overrating the value that those two had. I really think that Minnesota was banking on Martin being "fixable", in which case they'd potentially have landed a star prospect. Instead he has become even worse. Minnesota took on more actual risk in that trade, because they could have probably traded Berrios for any number of packages that had more exciting prospects; instead they chose to go with the one that had the recent "top draft pick" hoping his poor performance was an aberration. For the Blue Jays, that trade looked good at the time and it still looks good IMO, even with Berrios struggles this year. He's too young with too much track record to not bounce back, even if it's next season.

Moreno is up to .322/.389/.415 Otto Lopez is up to .296/.381/.437 Both guys have been hitting well recently. Another fun look-in: Jordan Groshans is hitting .346/.452/.500 in 15 games since being traded. He has 5 doubles and a HR (he had just 8 doubles and a HR in 67-games prior to being traded). Maybe I shouldn't have made fun of him!

Cade Doughty just hit his 3rd HR since turning pro in the first inning.

Right, but there's always going to be "something" potentially wrong with almost any free agent you approach. Ryu was old and injury prone, but he did still give two years of performance on a 4 year deal. This seemed like a very realistic outcome for him. Sure, you would have hoped to get that ~5 WAR season out of him. Springer really wasn't that "injury prone". He played in 51 out of 60 games in 2020 (85%), 122 out of 162 games in 2019 (75%), 140 out of 162 games in 2018 (86%), 140 out of 162 games in 2017 (86%), and 162 out of 162 games in 2016 (100%). The risk there came from his age + defensive position. Of course, his very first year here he plays the least amount of games he's ever played. Year #2 has now also featured a lingering injury. That outcome was always there as a real possibility, but that's the reality with most free agents. It's been pretty bad luck with that signing so far. I don't understand the Berrios one. He's "bland", but his AAV on his extension is only $18.7 million. He's a guy who had 3+ WAR in 3 of the 4 seasons prior to him signing that extension (the one outlier season was the shortened 2020 year). 2 of those seasons were 4+ WAR seasons. At ~$18.7 million, anything close to or over 3 WAR is surplus value on his contract. I don't think that anyone expected 28 year old Berrios to pitch at a 0.3 WAR season. It was still a good signing regardless of how bland he was because the guy is rarely if ever injured. He's just been terrible this season. Age is an obvious risk-factor, but even that one isn't dependable. Look at Carlos Correa - 1.6 WAR season for the Twins and he's only 27. He has a $35 million AAV on his contract.

Exactly, a lot of this is pure revisionist history. Berrios was a 27 year old with great health. Panned as a "great extension" at the time it was made. Now it's seen as some "huge gamble" they took LOL. No offense to anyone, but it's typical fan-BS. "Wooohooo! We signed Springer! f*** yeahhh!". Then it's "what a bunch of idiots, why did they take this huge risk and sign Springer?" Kikuchi is the only real head-scratcher where it seemed like they were throwing big money in the hopes of performing magic.

That's what teams are always hoping for, but if you look back at "top free agent signings", it's very hit or miss to even get one or two of those "elite years". Last year's mega-class seems to be like a ~50% rate at this point. A lot of it is just down to luck IMO. The Braves gave Marcell Ozuna $64 mill in 2020 and he's been a negative player over the first two years of his deal. That's a considerably worse signing/outcome than Ryu who got $80 mill. And that's from a "smart team".

Also, newly acquired Alex De Jesus was promoted to Vancouver after his couple appearances made in the FCL.

Tucker Toman 2 for 2 with a BB so far today. Early returns so far have been promising.

$350K was the slot value of the 152nd pick (Mid 5th Round) in 2019. He wasn't a ranked HS kid, but he had video on MLB.com. He was basically one of those shot-in-the-dark HS picks that ends up hitting.

Tucker Toman with a double to CF in his first at-bat today in the FCL

I think the one big thing with Frasso: The guy has literally never pitched more than 60 innings in a single season in his life, and that includes College. 2018: 60 IP 2019: 56.2 IP 2020: 8.2 IP 2021: 5 IP 2022: 36.2 IP At no point in time has he ever approached anything even remotely close to a starter's workload. And he's almost 24. Obviously the arm talent and athleticism are great, as are the results in High A. But I'm sure the Jays saw a pretty significant risk profile with him.

Here is what Ben Badler wrote. Sounds better than Groshans lol:

Nobody said that they were "down" on Frasso, but the truth likely lies in the middle: they had to give up something to get something, but if they thought that Frasso was a star that they would regret trading then this move isn't one that they would make given everything they've shown. You can also discern a lot by how they treat prospects. Tiedemann isn't even 20 yet and they've moved him up 3-levels this season to AA. Frasso is almost 24 and they still have him in High A. But yet there are people on here who think he'd be dominating AAA right now or making his MLB debut next season. If the Jays had that impression of him, he would have been pushed. They push their "top prospects" really aggressively, and in the case of Frasso, the guy is actually old for the level he is currently at.

Do you believe that the Jays haven't seen Frasso? They don't know his FG stats lol? For a team that has been extremely selective with which prospects they move out, you think they saw Frasso as a guy who could be dominating AAA today?

That's fine, I like Frasso too. But this front office sees these guys day-in and day-out. Frasso is old, has been injured, and hasn't pitched above A-ball. Perhaps they see something underlying and see this as a sell-high situation? The thing that should give you confidence is that they have been absurdly reluctant to trade away their "high impact" prospects. I don't think they're trading this kid away for Mich White if they thought he was that type of prospect.

Name me the last prospect that this front office has regretted trading. If you haven't figured out by now, they are dead-set against trading the guys they think are irreplaceable. They have been extremely good at evaluating the guys they have sent out. I'm not saying that Frasso is nothing, but if they thought he was some elite MLB pitcher next year he doesn't get moved. The reality is that he's almost 24 and he's still in High A. They aren't trading Noah Syndergaard the prospect here. It's literally the same story as last year: "oh noes, we traded Martin and SWR!!" Kendall Williams was a high-bonus ~6'5 HS pitcher that people were fretting would become a top-end starter for the Dodgers. He looks like forgettable crap. The Jays knew what he was and had no problem moving him.

Frasso turns 24 in less than 3 months and he's in High A. He's pitched a grand total of 41.2 innings in his career. His stuff is very promising, but he's not an MLB starter next year lol. Mitch White is a solid MLB pitcher with ~4 years of control left. The prospect they got back with him is also a real prospect. Again, the Jays are very good at evaluating their own prospects. They definitely traded something to get something in this case, but this isn't a pull-your-hair out type deal like you're making it out to be. This actually kind of looks like a scaled-up version of the Stripling trade where everyone panicked and thought we got fleeced because we sent Kendall Williams to the Dodgers.