BlueRocky

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/predicting-the-2020-futures-game-american-league-rosters/ They’re predicting Alejandro Kirk and Simeon Woods-Richardson to make this year’s MLB Futures Game

There’s hope for Chavez Young?

Another edition of draft stock watch by Carlos Collazo & Baseball America’s team:

Yeah Blaze Jordan went from top 15 considerations to possibly early 2nd round pick. Currently projected #35 on BA. He might fulfill his commit to Mississippi State. Dude is still young though, he will be 17 during the draft.

He provides defensive value and has always been a lead off hitter & base stealing threat. I’m just not sure his bat is advanced enough, or get on base enough, to play everyday. Strikeouts have been his nemesis, but he does occasionally take a walk. As a 4th OF though he fits the bill.

0:20 Intro 1:28 Thoughts on the New Top 50 Blue Jays Prospects List on Radioscouts.com 5:30 Everything Nate Pearson 15:25 Revisiting the Stroman trade: How is Simeon Woods-Richardson & Anthony Kay? 24:13 Vlad Jr in the best shape of his life? 25:27 How many games will the Blue Jays win in 2020? Potential buyers? 29:20 Thoughts on the Blue Jays pitching depth & Thomas Hatch We’ll be talking a lot about the upcoming 2020 MLB Draft in the next episode, stay tuned.

Apparently Austin Martin had some play in centerfield, and pulled a hammy running to 1st. We have a chance?

I’m not in the Asa Lacy hate camp, just relaying info. There’s a debate going around the college scene if Lacy should be taken ahead of Hancock. Lacy’s college career has profiled real command issues, as a starter last year he walked 4.4 BB/9 and often get himself into high pitch counts. In 2019 he had 43 BB and 13 HBP in 88.1 IP. His numbers have improved in 2020, thanks to his dominant start. But Hancock has a much more solid track record as of now, we will see in June. His secondaries are lights-out, that’s not a question. But he’s been dominating with two offerings, scouts want to see his curve and changeup a lot more. I’ve also seen concerns about his delivery having a lot of moving parts. This is a good example of his mechanics:

A team willing to roll the dice on JT Ginn’s health could possibly nab him in the 2nd round and offer him 1st round money, sure. He’s a draft eligible sophomore, with the option to return to college and answer the elbow surgery questions for the 2021 draft. He already rejected the Dodgers offer in 2018 (30th) out of HS thinking he could do better, but he might be regretting that decision.. securing millions and a professional career. It really depends on the person. If Ginn was healthy he’d be a top 15 pick this year. He’d have to have a dominant season and be completely healthy in 2021 and decision makers will still have his elbow surgery on the back of their minds. But if someone is offering 1st round money now he might just take it, question is does it make sense to roll the dice on an arm & offer a guy 1.5 M over-slot (@2.5M)? The talent is there no question, but Ginn could be another Patrick Murphy situation all over again. But yeah it’s theoretically possible to pass on Asa Lacy @ 5, go a bit underslot on Reid Detmers or Austin Hendrick/Zac Veen then grab a JT Ginn or Daxton Fulton in the 2nd. But you’d only do that if you really like another guy, and not a fan of Asa Lacy. Manoah had similar question marks, dominating college as a 2.5 pitch guy, but he turned out alright. Lacy has the advantage of being a lefty too, but I’ve heard from people that don’t put him in the same tier as Emerson Hancock. And others, think he could get picked before Hancock. The draft projections are still up in the air right now, I think we just finished week 3 of college baseball. A lot can change before June.

Emerson Hancock was outstanding, ERA down to 2.87. Here’s more on Hancock and Lacy:

Yes I’m still a fan of Reid Detmers, his curveball is disgusting. 90-93, T95. 4-pitch mix all average to above, curve is plus-plus. Strikeout machine, college hitters are no match. He led all pitchers in K’s last year and broke Louisville's season record with 167K/33 BB in 113.1 IP.

I’ve put some thought into this recently. This class is exceptionally deep even in the late 1st/early second, so it’s a plausible strategy. It’s kinda like what they did with Groshans/Kloff in 2018. We’ll be essentially trading the 5th pick for 12th + 25th (The second guy will likely be an over-slot 2nd/3rd that was a projected 1st rounder that dropped). Bottom line, it really depends which of the big 5 end up not getting picked. First of, there’s no chance Austin Martin is getting past the Marlins and Royals, so we can rule him out. It’s also hard to believe Torkelson will get passed 4 times, but let’s say there’s a slim chance. If either Tork, Nicky G, or Hancock is there at 5, you pretty much take it and run. The two guys that could go 5, but I have mild reservations about Asa Lacy (some pitchability concerns, reliever risk, and funky mechanics) and Mitchell (offensive tools, power is raw, type 1 diabetic), both have their tremendous upside but also flaws to nitpick. If we do go under-slot at #5, we’re basically looking at what we would draft at a typical year where we pick 11 to 12. The names I would look at for #5 under-slot (@12 money) would be: Hitter: Austin Hendrick, Zac Veen, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Casey Martin, Heston Kjerstad, Robert Hassell Pitcher: Reid Detmers, Jared Kelley, Carmen Mlodzinski, Garrett Crochet, Cole Wilcox That’s not a bad pool of guys, I feel it’s similarly talented to this crop of mid-later 1st round from 2018: Groshans, Rodriguez, Liberatore, Singer, Larnarch, Naylor, McClanahan, Kowar. Simeon Woods-Richardson was also taken 48th that year. In the 2nd/3rd round we’d be looking at names like: Max Meyer, JT Ginn (elbow surgery), Alika Williams, Blaze Jordan, Masyn Winn, Jordan Walker, Daniel Cabrera, Alejandro Rosario, Dylan Crews, Gage Workman, Slade Cecconi, Cam Brown, Daxton Fulton (TJ)

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2020-mlb-draft-prospects-chat-352020/ It was long, I left out some of the less relevant ones.

It’s not publicly disclosed yet. Baseball America also hasn’t started their annual IFA teaser articles. But I’m guessing it’s closer to Miguel Hiraldo (750K) and Rikelvin de Castro (1.2M), than Orelvis Martinez (3.5M) & Vladdy (3.9M). The only BA article we have is this one from last year

FutureBJs did a piece on our upcoming J2 IFA instagram star Manuel Beltre. He’s got an extensive social media profile, quite nice of him to upload all the videos for our viewing pleasure. https://futurebluejays.com/2020/03/04/blue-jays-in-on-ifa-beltre/ He also has a youtube channel and video here: Apparently one of the better hitting prospects in the upcoming period. Last time I heard that was Orelvis Martinez and Miguel Hiraldo, so that’s exciting. If I dig up anymore names for J2 I’ll post it here, of course until we have a 2020 IFA thread.

Murphy touched 100 MPH on multiple occasions in double-A last year and had starts sitting 96-97 deep into games. He was a 95-98, T100 type guy with one plus breaking ball (curve) and developing changeup. I heard Murphy is more comfortable now with his new delivery in spring training, hope he finds success in Buffalo and get called up quickly. The injury history is extensive and we shouldn’t be wasting too many bullets in the minors.

One thing the Jays have going for them is pitching prospects arriving through the system (Pearson, Kay, Murphy, Merryweather, Zeuch), but in turn there’s no impact bat to speak of like Vlad, Bichette, and Biggio arriving like last year. If the core guys get IL’d for whatever reason, we’ll be seeing a ton of Shaw, Panik, Drury, Hernandez, Alford, Santiago Espinal, & Forrest Wall types. The position depth is a bit thin on impact talent. The closest thing to an impact bat remotely ready would be Alejandro Kirk, which will start at double-A. There’s still a chance at 80+ wins but a lot of things would have to go right. Even with all the injuries via Red Sox & Yankees. Like Vlad, Bo, Biggio have breakout seasons, Ryu stays healthy, Pearson dominates, Giles stays good, etc I’d take the over on the 75 wins projection via sports bets and other projections. But still not sure we’ll be in the wild card hunt in August. By the time we see guys like Groshans, Manoah, and SWR arriving in 2021-2022, and let’s say front office continues to add via trade and free agency, they’ll be in a good position to compete for postseason spots.

Carlos Collazo does a great job with these weekly prospect updates. Texas A&M products OF Zach DeLoach and RHP Christian Roa may be a nice pickup in the 3rd or 4th rounds (if they even reach that far down). They’re currently tied for 3rd in the SEC West (10-3). *Asa Lacy’s teammates. It’s not just the numbers, it’s also they’re playing in the SEC which is the strongest conference in college. They represent 9 of the top 25 baseball teams in college (most of any conference), ranked by BA. Both the East and West SEC are stacked with powerhouse teams, but it seems the East has tipped the balance this year with teams like Florida (12-0), Tennessee (11-0), *Georgia (11-1), and **Vanderbilt (10-3) leading the charge. *Emerson Hancock’s team **Austin Martin’s team Update: Zach DeLoach is hitting .472/.615/.889, OPS 1.504. 1 K / 13 BB, 4 HR and 5 stolen bases. He’s murdering baseballs now, but his numbers the last two years were mediocre. Still not sure he’ll fall too far down though if this keeps up. Christian Roa, 3 GS, 15.2 IP, 4.6 ERA, 29 K / 5 BB, .230 OBA. Numbers are pretty typical for a college pitcher projected to go day 2, a little bit skewed by getting mashed by UCLA where he gave up 5 ER, 7 K / 4 BB in 4.2 IP. Before that he had a 6.0 IP game, 3 H, 2 ER, 12 K / 1 BB And 5.0 IP game, 3 H, 1 ER, 10 K / 0 BB Report say the stuff is good though. 6-4, 220lbs RHP that throws 94mph and has potentially three above avg to plus offspeed/breaking pitches.

He’d be the 101 ranked employee at Home Depot, the speed tool alone simply won’t play at the paint mixer department.

Well then.. that’s interesting. Torkelson went 3/5, with a homer, double, and a base hit, 4 RBI, 1 K and played centerfield yesterday.

Anyone interested in some strikeouts? Nate Pearson VS Ryan McBroom. 3 pitches. 2019 AAA Ryan McBroom: .315/.402/.574, OPS 0.976, 146 wRC+ Nate Pearson VS Michael Chavis 2019 AAA Michael Chavis: .257/.329/.614, OPS 0.943, 128 wRC+ Nate strikesout Wittie, then Dalbec *Context: Wittie got a base hit and Dalbec took him deep 1st time through the order, Nate came storming back the second time.