BlueRocky

Did Bo Bichette just ended another man’s career?

There’s just as high correlation between FB spin rate (2450 RPM+) and FB/breaking ball velocity separation, vertical and horizontal movement, to swinging strike % than just pure FB top velo. The guy throws a 2-seamer with movement, doesn’t walk people, has a nasty curveball and good changeup. And he’s shown to be very effective in college. He isn’t a midget either, the guy is 6-2, 210. Maybe he can add 2 MPH, who knows? If he retracts to 8.5 K/9 and 3 BB/9 that’s still a solid lefty rotation arm in the MLB. General consensus in the scouting industry, Reid Detmers has one of the highest floors out of all the arms in this class. It’s easy to see him fitting as a #4 starter with some upside for more.

It’s been generally fun following the Rakuten Monkeys for the first time. I catch them on twitter on Eleven Sports, eg:

Detmers had 48 strikeouts to 6 walks in 22 innings and 4 starts this year.. that’s a ridiculous 19.64 K/9 and 2.45 BB/9. If you think that’s an anomaly, Detmers led the nation last season with 167 strikeouts to 33 walks in 113.1 IP, good for 13.29 K/9 over a full season.. as a starter. In comparison, Hancock had 97 Ks and Lacy had 130 Ks. Guys with low-90s velo don’t get highly touted and generally fall into the mid-first round, but you can’t argue with the results. Whatever team takes Detmers in the 8-20 range is probably gonna be happy with their pick.

Not too high if you are convicted in his ceiling. He throws mid to upper 90s, touches triple digits and has a plus-plus slider. Kyle Glaser actually mocked Max Meyer ahead of Emerson Hancock recently in the baseball america podcast. The smaller frame and lack of track record is what’s keeping him from being a top 5 lock. He’s the fastest riser in the 2020 class and looked very impressive in the shortened season, but guys at the top of the draft tend to have fewer question marks. His draft stock would’ve been higher if COVID didn’t end college baseball early, with 10 weeks of scouting suddenly missing from their profile. Even with the 10 extra weeks it’s not a huge sample of Meyer as a starter. I’ve heard comps like Marcus Stroman, though not really a perfect comp, Meyer touches 97-98 with regularity. It’s more likely a team in the 8-15th pick would be comfortable taking that gamble and he could turn out to be really good.

I would add Orelvis Martinez, Miguel Hiraldo, and Alejandro Kirk to this mix. Maybe even Gabriel Moreno and Otto Lopez based on their development. It would be nice to genuinely have a legit position player come up through the system annually, kinda like the Cardinals.

The Blue Jays definitely don’t want to miss on this pick, they haven’t drafted this high since Vernon Wells in ‘97 and Romero in ‘05. But they also need to weigh floor vs upside or else you’ll end up in another situation drafting Deck McGuire and missing on Chris Sale (2010). If given a choice I would gamble on higher upside at least you can dream on. Gonzales has probably the most sure-thing bat in this draft class. Yes he’s been exclusively playing SS this season, though most scouts think it’s a stretch, SS is not out of the question. I think you draft him as a SS and give him a shot there. There isn’t a lot of track record of second baseman in the top 10, but scouts have drawn comparisons to Keston Hiura (+plate discipline) and Carlos has mentioned a Dustin Pedroia comp, we could do worst.. that’s a legit top-of-the-order bat. If we had to put hit/power grades on the top 3 college guys, my best estimate would be: Spencer Torkelson: 55 hit / 70 power Austin Martin: 65 hit / 50 power Nick Gonzales: 60 hit / 60 power If you look at pure draft history in the past decade, top 10 college lefties have been generally busts outside a rare exception like David Price, while righties have a half & half mix of stars and busts. By this account, Asa Lacy would be a no-no, but of course every prospect is unique and it’s silly to judge a prospect in that regard. In this specific case though, I would still prefer Emerson Hancock despite the industry ranking.

There’s still some hope the MLB can salvage half a season, the milb.. it’s not looking good. But with all the potential double headers happening, some of the triple-A kids might get a shot to play if MLB gets going. Namely Nate Pearson, Anthony Kay, Patrick Murphy, and maybe guys like Anthony Alford, Santiago Espinal, and Forrest Wall.

This is significant news for the 2021 MLB draft class. A significant chunk of data and scouting just disappeared and in some cases we’ll never see some college hitters play with wood and hit against higher conference arms for next year’s class.

What if the Royals take Emerson Hancock, and the choice was between Nick Gonzales or Zac Veen?

One top team with a surprise pick can really have a cascading effect on the 1st round. There’s a scenario where the front office takes someone completely off the board despite having Lacy, Hancock, and Veen on the table. The board would likely go nuts. Zac Veen was considered an off the board pick (still kinda is) just two months ago, though a lot of people are warming up to the idea. Though unlikely, some off the board picks that could happen: Garrett Mitchell The plus CF upside, 80-grade speed, and hit tool might be enough to offset the power being raw and type-1 diabetes. The hit tool is plus but lacks game power, high raw in cage. If everything works out that’s a star in CF. Austin Hendrick Elite bat speed, serious power and good hit tool. Corner power bat from left side is what you’re hoping for. I like his character as well. Pete Crow-Armstrong I would be floored, but it might not be a bad pick. Just two years back people were chanting for “Tank for PCA”, his stock dropped a bit over the summer from lack of power (possibly due to fatigue) but has really crushed earlier this season before COVID. HS bat with really high ceiling and lock for CF. Max Meyer His stuff is really loud, touching triple digits and a double-plus slider. Smaller frame than Hancock but high ceiling if he stays healthy. Some risk due to lack of track record, he’s a two-way player. Garrett Crochet Double plus grades on a triple digit heater. Injury history and less track record may scare some people away, but they also said that about Nate Pearson. Being lefty is enticing. Reid Detmers Filthy curveball and plus command on FB, led nation in strikeouts and really polished. High floor, love his demeanor. Mick Abel Good frame, HS prep arm is risky but he’s showed premium velo hitting triple digits in bullpen. Promising changeup and slider. Front rotation ceiling. 6-5, 180 elite frame, probably gained some weight over the winter.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/chat/?1587656035 Lots of juicy content in this week’s Baseball America draft chat with Carlos. I’ve highlighted some down below: TLDR; - The industry is trend towards 10 round draft - Rankings update despite having no games because information coming in from scouts take time to process - Torkelson or Martin for no. 1? It’s mixed, but lots of parties are starting to lean towards Torkelson. - Orioles want a bat - Royals linked to Gonzales - Industry likes Lacy over Hancock atm - This isn’t the first time Carlos said this, but Nick Lodolo (the first pitcher, 7th overall last year) would likely go 13 to 23 in this year’s draft. Reminder that we took Alek Manoah at 11th. - Leisurely, Hancock comp’d to Aaron Nola. Lacy comp’d to Madison Bumgarner. & Lacy has Andrew Miller/Carlos Rodon type stuff. Hancock leads in fastball command - Red Sox lost their 2nd rounder and now down to 26th in pool money despite picking 17th. - Lots of people want Zac Veen. - Mick Abel is a stud. - Max Meyer also a stud. - based on chat + podcast: last year’s top 6 has an edge over this top 6 due to Adley Rutschman and Bobby Witt jr, but this draft is much deeper, there are guys to get really excited about deep into the first round.

Yeah I think our buddy P2F really likes Robberse and he’s also made MLB Pipeline’s Jays top 30. Can’t wait to see their stuff in full season ball. He went from 88 mph at signing to 93 mph in GCL, that type of velo uptick is not uncommon for 17-18 year olds, but still impressive. Maybe we’ll see 95-97 when he reaches double-A.

Kjerstad has the offensive potential to sneak into top 10. Mick Abel being highly rated also doesn’t surprise me. But IMO fangraphs are really sleeping on Austin Hendrick. If we were drafting our position from last year (11), and we’re trying to get the best bat available that’s the guy I’m praying would fall to our pick. If drafting arms, I would be mixed about Meyers, Crochet, Abel, and Detmers.

We mentioned these guys before but Ben Badler released a piece earlier and had a segment on these guys. https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/from-aruba-to-italy-scouting-recent-international-signings-from-less-scouted-countries/

https://www.baseballamerica.com/chat/?1587656035 Does this help?

Baseball America has him pegged as a early-second rounder. Prep catching prospect with good raw power and plus defensive tools, some swing and miss. I honestly haven’t paid too much attention to Romo, as I’m eyeing more college arms in the second to third round range. I’m weary of drafting high-school catchers unless their bat is really special. There’s just so much that goes into the position defensively, just recently we’ve seen catcher prospects fizzle out like Hagen Danner (2017 2nd rounder) and Max Pentecost (2014 1st rounder). I personally don’t really have the stomach for it. But Romo looks like a guy that could develop into a solid defensive catcher with some pop, maybe like a Shea Langeliers (2019) type. He could goto college and develop into a stud, and catch the mid to upper first round in 2022-2023. Keep in mind, domestic high school catchers is the riskiest draft demographics, you want a bat that has enough upside to move off catcher in case things don’t work out. Luckily our catching depth is really strong in the farm system, there isn’t much need to take a risk on a catching prospect. (Jansen, McGuire, Kirk, Adams, Moreno, even D’Orazio if you go further down). Guys are really high on Kirk, for good reason. But don’t sleep on Danny Jansen, just hearing about all the improvements in his routines, his showing in spring training, and what we saw in the minors, if his bat settles in.. that’s a really good player. If we have to draft upside high school bats in the second round, there’s a few to choose from like: Isaiah Greene or Dylan Crews.

This could be the next development for Zeuch. If he doesn’t have the strikeout stuff, then his pitch to contact stuff needs to improve dramatically. I’ve heard about him working on his changeup, that’s a good start. Maybe add a cutter or something, rework his pitch repertoire and usage. Zeuch could really use an east-west type pitch as even his slider is very slurvy. There’s so many tools out there now for pitch design. He’s never had plus command either so it’s a bit of an uphill battle. At least with Sean Reid-Foley you can say he throws 94-95 out of the pen and his slider looks good at times, there’s still a backup option. Jon Harris is also nowhere to be seen, so the arms from a few years ago post-stroman/sanchez are looking grim. Thankfully we have Pearson, Manoah, Woods-Richardson, Kay, Kloffenstein, Williams, Pardinho, Murray, Winckowski, and possibly an Emerson Hancock soon. If two or three of them become studs we’re in pretty good shape.

The red flag has been there since the draft. There’s a lot of college arms that get pegged “good fastball, projected future average secondary” molds. They don’t usually fly up into the first round though, but seen as safer picks, which makes no sense imo. When drafting a pitcher, I’d like to see either one of several profiles: - high premium velo you can dream on (e.g. Garrett Crochet, Nate Pearson) - solid fastball command and at least one wipeout breaking ball plus track record (e.g. Emerson Hancock, Reid Detmers, Alek Manoah) - just plain jaw-dropping stuff (e.g. Asa Lacy, Max Meyer, JT Ginn) There’s gotta be one or two plus tools there with some projection left. Even if the guy is seen as a more risky pick, that upside is important. All pitchers are risky to some extent regardless of track record.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/mlb-strips-red-sox-of-2020-second-round-pick/ Alex Cora suspended through this season (if it happens) Red Sox lose their 2nd rounder this upcoming draft Video replay guy suspended through 2021

I wouldn’t go that far, but his stock is definitely down for awhile now. There were some flashes of potential like when he threw a no hitter down in Buffalo: https://www.milb.com/gameday/bisons-vs-red-wings/2019/08/19/575922#game_state=final,lock_state=final,game_tab=box,game=575922 I’ve watched him for a bit these past few seasons, and his draft reports back in 2016 have been pretty accurate so the Jays knew what they were getting: Pipeline Baseball America He’s basically been exactly that, a huge dude that throws a somewhat effective low-90s sinker and doesn’t have a true out-pitch. I’ve seen his slider been effective and his changeup gets mixed in on occasions, but they’re both not consistently a weapon for him. He pitches to contact and lives in the high-80s low-90s range by inducing ground balls. When he doesn’t walk people he can eat some innings for you. He doesn’t scream starting pitcher and doesn’t have the wipeout stuff you want in a bullpen arm. But young arms always have potential, and they don’t always find success their first time getting called up. There’s many examples of this. Who would’ve thought Liam Hendriks would be worth 3.9 fWAR and 25 saves in 2019? If Zeuch figures it out and becomes a depth piece, than great! If not, other guys will step up.

That’s a really aggressive 25th rank for Bryce Jarvis. I was hoping to grab a guy like that in second or third round, he threw a perfect game for Duke earlier this season with 15 K’s, and there’s an uptick stuff. Baseball America has him at #45.

Apparently the franchise owned rookie teams like DSL blue jays will still be there. And the league announced a league wide salary raise a few months back. In theory this will help crunch the rosters and eliminate the need for 40 round draft and too many org guys in the system. But bottom line this helps save a bit of money for the owners. Some people liked the old system, it’s not the most efficient but it worked. Under the new system, there will be fewer opportunities for success stories like Kevin Pillar, but I guess they’re hoping quality over quantity.

There’s a good chance we’ll lose both Vancouver and Bluefield with the minor league re-alignment. Franchises will be expected to have 4 full season teams and one rookie affiliate (housed in their spring training complex). Details and which teams not finalized. Facility standards will be higher and MLB teams will have more control over their affiliates.