Morales is pretty inferior to EE, but Pearce should be a decent upgrade on Saunders. Bautista should be able to top his production from last year fairly easily, but that could be helped along by not writing RF next to his name in permanent ink. I think it's pretty possible that Tulo and Martin outperform their 2016 selves if they can avoid those total blackout slumps.
Liriano should be a notable upgrade from Dickey in the rotation, though the BP is pretty obviously weaker without a Cecil replacement (as of yet). Starter health has been a pretty nice point of luck for the Jays the last couple of years. Not that it means someone will definitely get hurt in 2017, but there's no reason to think the good luck will continue. We already know Estrada has that lingering back problem, for instance.
Probably not as good as last year's team, but perhaps not as big of a downgrade as it seems. I'd say this is a strong Wild Card contender even if it's technically "worse" than the 2016 squad -- and that team, IMO, got some pretty s*** luck with the collective slump at the end of the year. 89 wins was beneath them.