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glory

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Everything posted by glory

  1. glory
    Yeah the Jays should not budge on what they (allegedly) last offered. That was not only fair to the player, but probably hurtful to the team in the long run (price of getting the player), so if he doesn't circle back to that then let him test free agency and see what the market says.
  2. glory
    Yeah last season he had a fantastic July, but was basically ass the rest of the year, and the Jays kept trotting him out there because of vetrin presents. Curious to see what happens this season if he has a wRC+ in the 60's in June like he did last year. Depth isn't an excuse as Barger and Roden can both play RF, and Roden can play LF with Tony sliding over to RF. One of the downsides of long term contracts to vets who are clearly washed is that they'll keep trotting them out there despite the sunk cost. If he doesn't bounce back then the Jays better be prepared to have a quicker hook with him.
  3. glory
    No way a Kirk extension should approach $20M AAV. He should definitely be extended though. The catching depth in the system is beyond trash. If the Jays are selling at the deadline then maybe they trade for a “catcher of the future” but if their goal is sustainable contention then at some point they’ll need to have a young player on a team friendly extension. Shapiro clearly doesn’t have the “sell your prime away for these magic beans” mind tricks that AA has.
  4. glory
    Vlad probably thought he was worth a top 5-10 contract after 2022-23. I don't think a 3 WAR season is going to stop him from overvaluing himself. The best case scenario for the Jays, regardless of how the team as a whole does, is Vlad having a monster season. That means the Jays are either in contention or can trade him at max value (whatever that means for a rental nowadays) at the deadline.
  5. glory
    Yeah whatever you think about Roden or Barger, I think being better than 2023-24 Springer isn't a high bar, so curious to see how much rope they give George this season. Best case scenario is a dead cat bounce, but in the event that he's the same ~100 wRC+/1.5 WAR player he's been for two years now (or worse), they need to be prepared to pull the plug a lot sooner since there are actual options to replace him now.
  6. glory
    That's why I'm baffled that the likely scenario is starting Roden in AAA. Maybe he's being overhyped right now, but really, look at the names ahead of him on the depth chart. Springer is 35 and has a 100 wRC+ over the last two seasons. Wagner while he had intriguing Statcast data in limited 2024 action, is still a player with no position and limited power. Kirk and Gimenez over the last two seasons are ~90-95 wRC+ bats. Clement had a 2% walk rate last season and Statcast page as blue as the ocean in many important offensive categories. If there's any time to take a gamble on Roden, Martinez, whoever, it's now. Even if it fails.
  7. glory
    Man, Springer batting 4th and Gimenez batting 5th is kinda disgusting. I know the options are limited, but really illustrates the amount of luck/bounce backs/player development the Jays are going to need to contend.
  8. glory
    I don’t see how they keep Roden off at this point. They haven’t signed a vetrin to occupy DH like they did last winter so it shouldn’t be too difficult to find playing time for him.
  9. glory
    The entire Cole contract ordeal was a huge red flag. After 2024 he had the opportunity to opt out of the last 4 years on his deal, and he did. The Yankees had the option of voiding the opt out by adding a guaranteed 5th year, and they chose not to. Then Cole agreed to stay with the Yankees for the exact same amount that he opted out of. When a Boras client operates that way, that’s a very telling sign. Will Warren might be a breakout candidate this season and the Yankees do pretty well with pitching development (mostly on the RP side) so they might be able to get by, but without Cole and Gil will be tough.
  10. glory
    I don't think the CBA/impending lockout is going to impact Vlad's situation. The lockout will be after the 2026 season, and Vlad will be a FA after 2025, so it will likely be business as usual this coming winter and he's going to get a market value deal with another elite season in 2025. The question is, what is or will be his market value in 9 months if he has another elite season? My guess is that no team is insane enough to give $600M to a 1B, but maybe that changes if he has consecutive great seasons for the first time ever. All it takes is one GM. Manfred basically admitted that off-season lockouts will be the new norm during CBA negotiations (not sure why he'd say that publicly), but I think that will impact the FA's after the 2026 season more than Vlad and Bo. In other words, don't expect Berrios to be opting out of 2/50 (he probably wasn't going to regardless but certainly not with a looming lockout). Vlad's still going to get his money. It's just a question of which side is closer to his true market value. My guess is the Jays are, but again, all it takes is one GM.
  11. glory
    Sounds like his initial ask was 15 years and over $600M, and he lowered it to something like 14/585 (based on the total value Ortiz brought up a few weeks ago). Having Vlad under contract for big money at age 40-41 seems like a really, really bad idea. We might be saying that for his early-30's, so his 40's is insanity.
  12. glory
    I don't see Jimenez making it. The only positions he plays are SS and 2B, and I can't imagine either Bo or Gimenez will get too many off days. DS definitely looks like he's making it, and will platoon against LHP. Obviously they will have a backup catcher and 4th OF who can cover CF (one of Straw, Loperfido, Berroa, or Lukes). That leaves one extra spot with no obvious solution. Maybe Stefanic makes the team, he's another player you have to factor into the Buffalo lineup, but he's also someone you can stash on a big league bench and not have to worry about lack of playing time. Of course, that means a 40 man roster spot, in addition to Straw needing one if it comes to that.
  13. glory
    There's going to have to be a late Spring Training trade at some point, right? The Buffalo lineup right now will likely have Martinez, Jimenez, Kasevich, Barger, Clase, three of Loperfido/Lukes/Straw/Berroa, possibly Roden if he doesn't make the team, and I'm probably missing a name or two. Turning Barger (for example) into a young backup catcher with team control would make a lot of sense. Either way seems like they will have to do something there.
  14. glory
    I know two Arjun's IRL, and it's either "AR-JUNE" (most common way to pronounce it based on my experience, possibly the westernized version of it) or exactly how it's spelled "AR-JUN". Pretty sure you can't go wrong with one of those two. It will take some getting used to as I'm guessing the majority of baseball announcers have never seen the name before in their lives, certainly not on the baseball field.
  15. glory
    Did the Pirates announcer think Nimmala was Latino? Manfred calling him “Ar-JOHN” on draft day was also incorrect but less egregious than thinking the “j” was silent.
  16. glory
    Yeah AA does not pay market value with extensions. He tries to get the team friendliest deals he can get, and to his credit he gets a bunch of them done, but Vlad has wanted $300M+ at least since 2021 when Tatis signed his deal. There was never going to be a team friendly discount even if AA was the GM.
  17. glory
    If you look at the types of players Atkins was going after pre-2023 and the ones he's been after since, it's night and day. Something changed within the organization in 2023, and not just at the big league level either. Maybe it was always there and just became more noticeable in 2023, I'm not sure, but Atkins went from coveting the Teo's and Grichuk's of the world to wanting handcuffs placed on any hitter with a K% above 20. At least he seems to make exceptions based on defensive value (Varsho).
  18. glory
    Bloss seems like a pretty ordinary prospect. As long as he’s serviceable #5 quality depth then it’s fine, but I wouldn’t expect anything much more than that.
  19. glory
    If Vlad playing 3B is the alternative then you might as well just stick Martinez there. If Orelvis' bat looks legitimately good then you could live with him at 1B/DH. I think that would require him to reach another gear offensively though. He's still young enough to get there, and his power is legit. Let's hope he breaks out this season because he does one thing the Jays absolutely need more of (power) and it's about time they develop another international player.
  20. glory
    Orelvis has a lot more upside if he's at 2B/3B, not so much as a 1B, and the fact that they moved him off 3B last season when it's a massive org need probably signifies that he's not playable there (although the Jays standards for defense given how obsessed they are with it might be high). I'm curious to see how the Jays view their infield (2B/SS) for 2026. They have a bunch of bodies in terms of prospects/young players, but no one that really stands out above anyone else. If they view Gimenez as the 2B moving forward, then they should probably look to trade Martinez unless his bat really breaks out and he can be a justifiable 1B/DH option.
  21. glory
    February 2025 April 2024
  22. glory
    I’m fully on board with Orelvis making the team as the DH if the bat looks like it’s ready. Legit power and should be able to hit LHP, which are/were two big weaknesses on the team. Whether the team would let him DH is the question. Usually having a young prospect in the DH spot isn’t ideal but if he’s the best option for that spot on the team then worry about that later.
  23. glory
    Orelvis turning into something would be an amazing development given his strength is something the team sorely needs (HRs/power). Not sure what position he could reasonably play, but at this point just stick him at DH if the bat warrants it.
  24. glory
    There's some revenue uncertainty with most MLB teams when it comes to their local media rights, and now MLB announced that they are no longer going to partner with ESPN after 2025, so there's some uncertainty there as well depending on if they can get more money (or equal money) from another media partner(s). Not surprised the market cratered. I think MLB is going to be in much better shape after 2028, as they can negotiate a new media rights package, and Manfred's plan is to bundle the local rights of most of the teams and sell it to a streaming service. That seems like a much better financial scenario for most of the owners. What happens between 2025 and then is the question. Seems like a financial holding pattern for most of the owners.
  25. glory
    Vlad in a free agent year is probably worth holding onto at this point if the goal is to contend in 2025 (which it obviously is). It's the one time you can probably guarantee that he'll be motivated, and I don't think you can have that same confidence once he gets his big contract. He's someone I can absolutely see coasting for years once he has a $500M guarantee. Not sure what he's trying to accomplish by liking posts like that, assuming that was actually him and not a photoshop (never know nowadays), but I think it leads back to the motivation aspect. This guy is obviously waiting to test the open market, and the Jays will likely benefit in 2025 if he has something to play for. Just have to swallow all that nonsense like that tweet for the next 9 months, because I'm sure there will be a lot of those.
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