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glory

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Everything posted by glory

  1. glory
    Umpire calls a clear ball a strike on the first pitch to Bo. Going to be a frustrating umpiring day already.
  2. glory
    Vlad's greed saving the Jays from a huge mistake, so I hope he keeps that level of confidence in himself and has a great 2025. I suspect if Shapiro is sticking around then a Canadian will be playing first base next season, either Vlad or Naylor, but a lot will ride on the type of year Vlad has.
  3. glory
    Interesting to see how they do the lineup when Varsho gets back. My guess is if Roden or Wagner start out hot then they'll move into the lead off spot with Bo moving to 4th, but then how they move everyone else down will be the question.
  4. glory
    Gimenez batting cleanup is disgusting but all the right players are playing, so can’t complain too much. The Jays definitely seem all in on Roden.
  5. glory
    Yeah this org seems to value service time and tenure on the team very highly, so I doubt they bench Clement on Opening Day in favor or two rookies. Best chance of both Roden and Wagner being in the lineup is if Springer is playing CF. I guess we will see. My guess is Roden is on the bench today and starts Game 2.
  6. glory
    Transcribing Arden Zwelling on the JD Bunkis podcast: This is about 10 days after this quote from Davis Schneider:
  7. glory
    No idea if this guy is on the Hector Gomez/Carlos Baerga/Jon Morosi scale, or actually credible, but hope he's wrong here. I don't even care about the total value, a 14-15 year deal for a 1B who already resembles a DH at age 25 is insanity.
  8. glory
    The AL as a whole looks very mid on paper, especially with the Yankees and O's having injury issues. I would expect the Red Sox to take a leap forward this season, but aside from them it's hard to see a team that is going to dominate in the AL. Might be another year where the Wild Card teams are in the mid to high 80s. The Central teams again will have a huge advantage getting to beat up on the White Sox.
  9. glory
    The thing about Roden's age is that his first full pro season was at age 23 (2023). Realistically, another organization may have had him start 2024 in AAA and been a mid-season call up, which would have had him reach the Majors before completing two full pro seasons, but the Jays went slower with him for whatever reason. I tend to agree that Horwitz + ability to play LF is probably a fair outcome for him, and not a bad one for the Jays, but if he's as good of a baserunner as Keegan Matheson seems to think (I think he does the Pipeline bios) and can handle the OF corners at an average or better level, then there might be a bit of upside there. But yeah, if he's just a 2 WAR platoon player, then the Jays still come out ahead.
  10. glory
    Don't mind not taking Yarbrough, but Lovelady and Barnes? I'm convinced Shatkins would rather take a bullet to the chest than promote a homegrown relief prospect. I have no clue if Fluharty is good or not, but I'd much rather see him or someone similar get one of these last spots than the rolodex of waiver wire crap that this regime likes to cycle through. Otherwise I'm fine with Barger going to AAA as well. There was no way to get him playing time if Roden and Wagner were making it as well. Lukes is probably demoted once Varsho comes back, so he's there just to occupy space for now.
  11. glory
    No brainer. Catching is non existent in the farm system, and Kirk is still young with some offensive potential. After trading Moreno and losing Jansen, they pretty much had to commit to Kirk.
  12. glory
    If it's Springer in CF and Roden in either LF/RF, then that's fine too. It won't be great defensively regardless but as long as the right bats are in there, then that's all that matters.
  13. glory
    Roden is 25 and likely projects as a platoon corner OF. Worrying about his service time seems pretty unnecessary. With Varsho starting on the IL, I'm not sure which direction they go in at this point. Straw is not on the 40 man, Lukes probably isn't a CF defensively, and Berroa is basically Straw. None of those options are ideal. If Roden can even cosplay as a CF for a few innings a game (sub out late), then that's probably the best way to go.
  14. glory
    Springer hits a HR: Spring Training doesn't matter. Barger hits a HR (106 mph EV, 409 feet): Breakout szn.
  15. glory
    I think there is a very good chance Springer is released sometime mid season. This front office has a reputation of treating veteran players really well, so I would imagine they will give him a ton of rope and undeserved time higher in the batting order, but enough will be enough at some point, especially if Roden is killing it in AAA. It just sucks that we will probably have to wait until Springer has a 58 wRC+ in his first 200 PA before we see a move. I'm still holding out hope on the 2% chance he's traded (with the Jays kicking in damn near all of his money) to the Astros before the start of the season.
  16. glory
    Wagner being able to adequately cover 3B, 2B, and 1B gives him a ton of value if his bat plays up to projections.
  17. glory
    Shapiro also said the same thing in his press conference a few weeks ago, saying that Ed was personally involved in the process, as was Tony Staffieri, and that deals of this magnitude ($$ and years) can't be done without an owner being involved.
  18. glory
  19. glory
    Davis Schneider home run off Aaron Nola (106 EV). He had a quote recently talking about how he was trying to hit singles last season which wasn't his game, and he's going back to trying to do "damage". Would be nice if he has a bounce back season.
  20. glory
    I think 5 sunk years would be the best case scenario. A 14-15 year deal would take Vlad into his 40's, so it's more likely the Jays would get around 7-8 sunk years (if you assume decline usually begins around 32-33), and possibly more considering his track record, conditioning, etc. There's absolutely zero upside for the Jays making a deal like that. If their place on the win curve was a lot higher from 2026-30, then maybe you could squint hard to rationalize it, but they may have to start a rebuild with or without Vlad next season, so his best remaining seasons post 2025 (if they happen with the Jays) may not even benefit the team all that much. Let him test free agency. Or trade him at the deadline if the team is out of it. Or turn back time and trade him in July 2024.
  21. glory
    A Springer trade for an equally bad contract is the way to go. They have internal replacements for him, and there's a good chance he's cooked, but finding another contract to match up with that makes sense for both sides will be the issue. Montgomery would make a lot of sense for the Jays even though it would clog up the rotation. A real s***** contract is Taijuan Walker, and the Phillies probably could use a 4th OF, but I'm not sure what the Jays could realistically do with Walker except put him in long relief and hope his stuff plays up. He's likely just as cooked as Springer is. At this point give GS a month or two and see if there's a dead cat bounce in him, but they better be prepared to pivot very quickly if he looks washed. The Jays schedule early on is brutal so they can't really afford to have an automatic out batting high in the lineup because of vetrin presents.
  22. glory
    Yeah there's no reason to manipulate Roden's service time. He's already 25 and he's not going to be a superstar or anything. The team could easily find playing time for him at the big league level by cycling Roden, Taters, and Springer between DH/LF/RF but I don't think they actually want to do that. It's possible Tony and/or Springer don't want to DH much, and the Jays have a great reputation with veteran players over the years largely because they kowtow to them. Wagner probably makes more sense to them as a primary DH since he's not a good defensive player anywhere and has versatility (2B, 1B, 3B), and Barger can (cos)play 3B, so between that and already being on the 40 man roster, he might have the edge over Roden as well. Realistically, the main road block for Roden's path is Springer.
  23. glory
    My point was exactly what I typed out there. He’s going to regress from what he showed last season but hopefully still ends up a serviceable #5 starter, which won’t be a big deal if the top 4 hold up their end.
  24. glory
    Francis likely overachieved last season. There will be some regression there. Hopefully it's not significant regression, but I think the expectation for him should be a lot closer to #5 starter than anything beyond that. Which is fine if the top 4 are good to very good.
  25. glory
    Yeah no one is outbidding Cohen on a player that he desperately wants. That doesn't apply to players he might not care for as much and wants more fiscal responsibility involved (ex. Jays outbidding the Mets for Springer). He also employs Stearns now, who isn't going to throw money away for no reason like previous GM's. If Cohen wants Vlad, then that's where Vlad will end up. Not sure he would want Vlad that much, but who knows. There will be enough big market teams involved to drive up the price (Yankees, Phillies, Cubs, Mets, Red Sox, etc, could all use him) but I'm not sure anyone will break the bank for him ala Soto. A big 2025 might change that. As is, I'd be pretty surprised if anyone gives $500M to a 1B/DH only player, not even factoring the lack of elite track record.
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