glory

This team is going to get smoked in a Wild Card series (if they even make it at this point).

Yeah if every team were doing this then I’d say it’s an issue with the agents or the players themselves but the Braves are basically the only team doing this on a consistent basis. Players hand over their primes to AA for less than market value without blinking. AA may have inherited a gold mine but he put his personal stamp on it real quick. Meanwhile waiting for the first young player the Jays can extend to that type of deal.

Yeah seriously. If Vlad was on the Braves, he’d probably already be extended for below market value by now.

Jimmy gets to face the 2-3-4 hitters while Bass got the bottom of the order last inning. Not sure that was the wisest strategy if you believe Bass’ 2022 is legit, but we shall see.

Hernandez, Chapman, and Gurriel are all FA's after 2023, and I can't think of one prospect today who looks like he might be ready to take one of those spots by 2024. Maybe Orelvis if his 2023 looks better than 2022 but expecting him to hit the ground running if he does make it is probably going to end in disappointment, and the Jays can't afford to spend the last two years of Vlad/Bo's control (2024-25) with a 3B who may need a few years to develop. I don't see any OF's on the horizon unless I'm forgetting someone. The Jays really need a CF but that's the toughest OF position to fill. That's not even factoring the more obvious holes, which are bullpen (clearly), and the rotation which will not have Stripling and Ryu next season, and we have no idea what is happening to Berrios. Kikuchi also sucks right now, so that's an issue. It's going to be very interesting to see what they do this winter. If they are seeing the same thing I'm seeing as far as the overall state of the roster/farm system, then I think they do some riskier things this winter to maximize 2023-25 wins. By riskier, I mean "sign Edwin Diaz to an insane contract" type of risky. Of course, if the Jays go on a magical run this October, then obviously that changes things.

I am pretty confident saying Seattle and Toronto (even though they haven't looked like it recently). The last spot is harder. The Rays are so injury ravaged. The Orioles are probably overachieving but actually have (potentially) difference making young talent starting to filter up, so I wouldn't rule them out. Cleveland is probably winning the Central, and I'm not buying the Twins or White Sox. So I'll say Seattle, Toronto, and Baltimore, but I'm not as comfortable picking Baltimore as I am the other two.

Ha-Seong Kim has actually been a pretty decent replacement for Tatis this season. Coming into tonight he had a 100 wRC+ and 2.5 WAR. He's a really good defensive SS. Obviously it would have been better (and more fun) with Tatis there, but Padres can probably make do for now.

Maybe, but the farm system isn't really in the best position in terms of having top tier trade assets (other than Moreno), so increasing the floor of the roster a tiny bit was probably the only thing they could do realistically. They weren't going to be anywhere near a Soto trade, or even Castillo/Montas. The only realistic trade that I can think of that might have made a significant difference was Raisel Iglesias, but Atkins barely likes giving arbitration money to relievers. He wasn't going to touch that contract.

Agreed. I generally like this FO but having a good plan and executing it well are two different things. I don't think anyone disagrees with "perennial contention", especially coming off 2015-16 which was both super exciting and frustratingly short, but building a roster that can win every year takes some level of risk aversion in free agency combined with being able to create a team friendly financial situation. To this point there have been no team friendly extensions given to core young talent, either out of choice or more likely out of circumstances (Vlad and Bo don't want to sign right now). Then the past two seasons have involved signing players in their 30's to long/big money contracts. The farm system is not in the best shape, and aside from Moreno, lacks upper minors talent both on the position player side and especially on the pitching side. I feel like the next 3 years are probably it as far as this team's window because combining all of those things above together doesn't add up to 5-10 years of a competitive cycle. The Braves signed their stars to team friendly (or borderline exploitative) extensions, so now they have their financial situation locked up and can build around their existing talent. The Jays don't really have that. It's 3 expensive arb years for Vlad/Bo, and then who knows what after that. Obviously, 3+ years is a long time. Maybe by 2025 there will another wave of young talent coming up and the Jays can seamlessly transition into that core without having to do a tear down for a few years. We will have to wait and see. I mean ultimately if the Jays end up making the WC this year (they should), and then have 3 more playoff appearances after that, then you could probably live with a small retool/rebuilding phase after that if there is a reasonable amount of success over that 4 year competitive window (certainly if there is a WS title out of it), but I'm a little skeptical of 2023-25 at this point. Atkins needs to do some things in the winter.

Yeah AA is on a different level now. Probably a bunch of factors playing in. Working under Friedman for a couple of years likely helped. He inherited a great group of young talent. He brought Dana Brown over. He's in a more desirable market so easier to attract FA's (without Beeston putting a cap on the amount of years he can give a player). Plus he's just overall a better GM now. He was always good, but now he's combined the risk taking ability/aim high approach with a much better understanding of roster construction and value. Kinda wish he stayed with Shapiro as the president, but I think he needed those years in LA to turn into what he has become.

Michael Harris, Vaughn Grissom, and Spencer Strider all drafted in 2019 and 2020. I think AA needed those two years with the Dodgers org because he's been great since then (granted with a lot of help from what he inherited but still). He’s set up a nice development system over there from the looks of it.

The Central division is ass, so I can't give the Guardians too much credit, but I like the fact that their team is basically all homegrown talent or talent they acquired in recent trades. In an average division they probably look less impressive, but either way, wouldn't surprise me if they go on another Central division run starting this season.

The Jays will actually have to give up on Pearson being a starter or multi inning bulk guy. Not sure what their reluctance is/was on accepting his injury history and just letting him ramp it up for 1 inning at a time. Hopefully they let him come into spring training next year as strictly a 1 inning reliever. I think if he ever does anything in the bigs, it will be in that role.

I still think the Jays are the best non-Yankees/Astros team in the AL this season, so it would be disappointing if they didn't get the 1st WC, but as long as they get in then they will have a good shot with Manoah/Gausman in the first 2 games. I tend to agree with you on 2023-onwards, though. The farm system doesn't have much in the upper minors outside of Moreno, and the cost of keeping this same group together is going to get much higher as early as next season and definitely 2024 when they have to either replace or re-sign Hernandez, Chapman, and Gurriel. This team was built around the premise of Vlad and Bichette both being superstars. If one or both fall short of that (and in Bo's case this season, way short) then it's going to impact the ceiling of this roster. They could easily perform better in 2023-25, so too early to get too pessimistic about it, but you definitely see some of the cracks in the foundation here. It's going to be interesting to see what they do with Jansen and the outfield situation next season.

Yeah they have felt like an average team most of the season despite being 10 games over .500. The 2021 team seemed like it would be dangerous in the playoffs. This one seems a lot less so even factoring the randomness of the post season some times.

This is the 2nd manager this season who is resting guys and getting Tapia into the lineup as a result. Atkins is crushing on Raimel and there’s no stopping it.

Espinal has fallen off hard the last couple of months and has significant platoon splits this season. Makes sense to go with a platoon at 2B for now.

JBJ has vetrin presents over Zimmer, that's really the only tangible difference now that JBJ appears to be washed. Honestly, for a team as young as the Jays, having a vet in a harmless 5th OF/pinch runner spot probably isn't a bad idea, and with Charlie gone, there is no threat of him starting 3 times a week.

Bo still a few spots higher than he should be but slowly getting there.

Yeah if Vlad and Bo are not superstars then the ceiling of this team drops pretty significantly. Still a good team but not a team you’re going to go broke for. Get to the playoffs, hope for the best, then reload in the winter.

Hopefully with this Marlins trade, Cimber gets moved down the depth chart. He’s a fine middle reliever but shouldn’t be used in high leverage.

I can't give it an A because the team didn't add any real difference making talent, but I think a B is probably fair. While the Jays didn't get any sexy pick ups, I think they are in a position where you can't really pinpoint a significant weakness on the roster. A bench of Merrifield/Tapia/Biggio is solid. The bullpen lacks top end late inning guys, but Pop, Bass, and White replacing Richards, Thornton, etc, is going to limit the amount of suckage in the pen. I guess if you want to be disappointed at something it is rolling with Stripling/Kikuchi as the 4/5 starters, but Strip has been great this season, and Kikuchi is their project for the next couple of years so they were going to run him out there regardless. Just have to hope everyone stays healthy because the depth options after White are terrifying (Hatch better not start another game). I'm not the biggest Max Castillo fan, but yes it would have been nice to hold on to him while adding White just to spread the depth out a little bit.

Great start by Gausman. I'd be tempted to use him for the 9th, but I'm guessing Romano coming in.

Actually, I just looked at Groshans minor league numbers. Wow this dude fell off hard. I knew his power was down but rest of his numbers look pedestrian as well. Jays likely gave up on him and figured his value wasn't going to get any higher. For a team that develops position players pretty well overall, I trust their judgment on him.