glory

I expect the Astros to win, but I wouldn't rule out Philly just yet. Wheeler is really good and then Game 7 anything can happen.

Yeah seriously, Schwarber in the Jays lineup would have been amazing.

There's probably no chance that it happens as top prospect for top prospect trades are pretty rare (especially top 10 for top 10), but Moreno for Walker would be interesting. Value-wise they are probably close to equal, and both are blocked by internal options (Arenado in STL and Kirk/Jansen here). Moreno fills a huge need for the Cardinals while 3B won't be a need for the Jays until 2024, so timeline-wise it makes more sense for the Cardinals than the Jays. Given where the Jays are in their window, I'd imagine any trade involving Moreno would be for an established big leaguer and not another prospect (unless it was someone like Corbin Carroll who has already contributed at the big league level, but I don't see the D-Backs doing that).

A corner OF in his 30's is not someone I'd prioritize signing long term if I were the Jays, especially with his BB:K rates. I think I'd hold on to him for 2023 since he's still a good player and maybe he rakes in his FA year, but I wouldn't go beyond that.

As others have said, there is an argument to be made for all 3 of the catchers to be kept or traded. Maximize the next 2-3 years? Trade Moreno. Try to sustain contention for as long as possible? Keep the players with the most control (i.e. trade Jansen). Looking for the best return in general? Trade either Kirk or Moreno. There really isn't a "wrong" answer unless Atkins gets f***ed in a trade return, but of the 3 catchers, Jansen is the one where the likelihood of getting a return that instantly makes us say "that's it?" is much higher. No one is saying Jansen is the next great catcher in baseball, but a 2.6 WAR in less than half a season of PA's this season and a 4.5 WAR/140 wRC+ in his last 400 PA dating back to 2021 makes him a pretty valuable player even with the caveats (injury prone). On top of that, we have no idea what Moreno will eventually become and/or how long it will take for him to get there, and the next 2-3 years are essentially the team's best competitive window with this group. Not the easiest decision, but obviously, Atkins is in the driver's seat.

Castellanos got $100m and then turned to s***.

Agreed. I'm just skeptical that sort of deal will be out there for Jansen. We saw something like that at the deadline with Montgomery/Bader, so I guess it's possible, but the amount of contending teams having an expendable ~3 WAR SP with at least 2 years of control doesn't seem like it will be a very long list. How much would the Jays have to add to Jansen to get Pablo Lopez?

If you think his bat is fixable, then Trent Grisham could be an option. Three years of control left, LH bat, legitimately good defensive CF, but bat was bad in 2022. Padres could probably use an upgrade at CA, and I believe they are/were considering Tatis to CF. I don't think the Cards move Nootbaar or Carlson for Jansen, and while Tyler O'Neill probably makes sense as a similar value return, the fit isn't great for the Jays (RH, not a CF). Don't think the Astros or Guardians have anyone that fits that criteria. Like I said hard to find a good deal for Jansen since only contending teams would want to trade for him, and contending teams aren't likely to trade good players with 2-3 years of control unless it's from a position of surplus.

If that is the rationale, and it's a logical one, then Kirk is the one to move because he's far more likely to get the type of return that would help the team short/long term over whatever Jansen will bring back. The reason to trade Jansen is almost entirely due to years of control. He has the least. Age is another factor, but honestly, given how unpredictable Kirk's aging curve will be due to his body type, I'm not even sure that's as big of a deal. If you can get Jansen on a team friendly extension, and then trade Kirk for a SP/CF/whatever that will significantly improve the club short and long term, then that's not a bad option at all. Really depends on what Kirk's market is right now.

O’Neill isn’t the best fit since he’s RH and isn’t a CF (or at least he hasn’t played there much), but yeah, this is the type of trade that I could see happening. Jansen isn’t desirable to non contending teams, and contenders are more likely to trade prospects (which wouldn’t interest the Jays), so getting an equivalent MLB player who plays a different position is probably the best case for Jansen. Whether you think O’Neill can come close to his 2021 numbers again is the question. Adding a hard throwing reliever in the deal like Hicks would make sense as well.

They'll have Bader in CF all season, and presumably IKF will be gone and replaced by Cabrera (or Peraza). My guess is they'll trade Torres and put DJ back at 2B. So if they bring Judge back, then I think they'll still be good. Probably closer to a WC team than running away with the East like this season though. If they lose Judge, then it's probably going to get ugly.

Yeah, the Phillies actually resemble a good team, even if their regular season record doesn't stack up (though post Girardi they were very good). The Braves roster that won the World Series in 2021 was far more egregious due to injuries and clearly overachieving middling talent (Rosario, Duvall, Soler, etc). They won the division by 6.5 games with 88 wins. The Phillies finished 3rd in the division with 87 this season. Not even a comparison, IMO.

I generally agree with you about years of control being an important factor here, but not sure the team is going to get a comparable talent to Jansen in a trade. In 2022 had a 2.6 WAR in less than half a season of games/PA's (4 WAR and 124 wRC+ combined in 2021-22 in 453 PA). He has power, draws walks, doesn't strike out much, doesn't hurt you on the bases, and is only 27. Assuming Ross Atkins is aware that you can in fact sign a young player to a team friendly extension at some point, it seems like Jansen is a guy who fits that criteria in a normal circumstance. His injury history might make him easier to sign too. I can't see a scenario where another team gives up a 4+ WAR CF or SP for him. Even if you were bullish on someone like Alek Thomas turning into that sort of player, would the D-Backs move him for 2 years of Jansen? Probably not. If they decide to move Jansen, then it would be a logical way to go (less control, older, injury history, etc), so I'd have no issues with that, but from a talent + return standpoint, I'd be afraid of what Atkins gets in return. Either way, if I had to make a prediction right now, I'd say it's 80/20 in favor of the Jays keeping all 3 and trying to make it work.

He is essentially a 0.0-0.5 WAR player when given 400-500 PA's a season and most of that is purely off base running. Awful might be harsh but either way he's not good. For the better part of the year he was below replacement level. The Jays excessively playing him even when everyone was healthy is more of an indictment on the Jays than it is on Tapia though, so I shouldn't be too hard on him. He is what he is and the Jays should have known better.

Gurriel and Castellanos were good MLB players as recently as 2021 with a track record prior to that of being good. Tapia has been awful his entire career, was awful in 2021, and predictably awful again in 2022. There's no chance any other contending team would have given Tapia as much PA's as the Jays did unless it was due to massive amounts of injury to their starting OF's. It's one thing to give playing time to someone with a track record who just inexplicably sucks for whatever reason, but it's different when it is someone who has always sucked and you know will suck again. The latter is Tapia.

I always viewed the Cardinals as a trade option with Molina retiring but didn't think they'd move another OF after trading Bader. One of the catchers for Carlson or Nootbar (assuming he can play CF long term, he only played their a bit in 2022) would make sense.

Guardians shouldn't be rewarded for not spending money/trying to field the cheapest team possible. I like the players on the team, but not the org. I'll go with Seattle.

Michael Brantley is a FA again, though will be coming off shoulder surgery. Seemed he was really close to signing with the Jays based on Hazel jumping the gun a couple of years ago. He's older now, and likely strictly a DH at this point, so that might turn the Jays off, but a LH bat like that would be ideal in this lineup if his bat doesn't slip after surgery.

Yeah I think how they handle the catching situation is going to be one of the more important decisions they make. Keeping all 3 is certainly possible, but it will involve using the DH spot more for Kirk than how they used it this season (giving starters a rest so an inferior bench option, usually Tapia, can play). They'd likely also have to use Moreno in more of a super utility role, which might be a good thing if his offense is as good as hyped. Realistically, it's the biggest position of strength in the organization and there is a surplus, so if you want to fix a glaring org weakness (ex. CF) then that's the position to subtract from. I like the idea of turning a catcher into someone like Alek Thomas, but not sure what the cost is going to be. The D-Backs would probably do Thomas for Kirk, but would they do it for Jansen+? I'm guessing no but depends on how they view things. If they do trade a catcher and decide they want to trade Jansen, then they need to do it this winter. He has two years of control left. This is the only time to maximize his value. If he's still a Jay on opening day 2023 then they might as well try to extend him. Kirk and Moreno are more controllable so no urgency there, unless you think Kirk has peaked and want to sell high, but Atkins usually doesn't operate like that on the big league level.

Gonna be interesting to see what they do. They clearly need a big bat in their lineup but also need to replace or re-sign 3/5 of their rotation (deGrom, Bassit, Walker), Diaz in the pen, and Nimmo in CF. Even Cohen is going to have a limit. Wonder which direction they go in.

Tapia making the final out on the Jays season was almost a poetic way to end 2022. I just wish he would have reached 500 plate appearances during the regular season. The Jays certainly tried to get him there.

I started watching in 91 and this was the worst I’ve seen given it was an elimination playoff game. Just brutal.

Brutal call there.

I’ll gladly take the L in this case.

I had the Rays winning this series but thankfully the Guardians swept them out of town. Cleveland took advantage of a s*** division but Bieber and McKenzie give them a chance in a short series against the Yankees. Still picking NY though.