Likely it'll be one of Toronto or Baltimore. The Yankees are pretty lousy and have played over their head.. they've gone a horrible 7-13 in the last 20, worst in the AL. And the Rays are basically a bad run away from a major fire sale due to the team getting no closer to a new stadium, worst attendance in MLB and halfway out the door to Montreal(and ownership seems to feel this way.. they've cut spending in-between inning entertainment and concerts, and the team trashes its stadium all the time, saying they need a new one sooner than later), and the Red Sox are garbage with a heavily flawed roster, lousy pitching outside of recent call-up E-Rod, and Ortiz nearing the end.
Both Toronto and Baltimore have chances to turn it around if their pitching comes around.