crmr

You were so sure entering 2011 (I'm pretty sure), that Snider was going to be a perennial all-star, even saying someone would be dumb for not seeing it. It's hard to forget something like that! Good try saying it was a decade ago though, my poitn was you took a while to update your information, not that your information was initially wrong (which would have been reasonable)

This particular one I can't resist. Largely because he couldn't even entertain the idea that Snider may not be good. And, if it were 8 years ago I'd let it slide, but I'm pretty sure it was 4-5 years ago. I also gave my point later in the post to be fair, so I kept it going.

I know you used to argue that Travis Snider was 100% going to be perennial all-star even though it was clear he didn't quite have it, but how do the Jays end up with McCutchen for two midpack prospects? No way does Pittsburgh make this deal.

I'm here!

At this point probably everyone will check in

How is that wise? They should be using anything at their disposal. Sometimes you have to be creative to get things done. That actually makes me think they have no clue what they're doing. The Mets got a great deal for Cespedes last year, and, had they not decided to resign him, would have gotten huge surplus value. Had they not given him that deal, would he have signed? You have to think of it in terms of age curves, where you expect his age curve to be a year delayed (or whatever), such that he will opt out but give you a solid year.

It's starting to look like you can get Jose for 2, maybe 3. Do you sacrifice 2 years of potential contention for the third, a likely low salary year anyway? I would. You could always give him a solid deal in 2017 and attach a player option in 2017 to let him bet on himself, which seems to be the new trend in contracts.

I agree completely, if we go into an immediate rebuild.

There are also plenty of 37 year old bargains in history...

I honestly did not read any post in this thread except the one I replied to so I don't really know what happened. It is a general theme, so I just inferred based on other threads. You're right, there is a value to that comp pick and Valbuena isn't the worst option. But, as I've been harping on a bit, I think they should either be agressive or jump ship, but they seem to be acting like a small market front office. While you're right about those WARs as expectations, Bautista definitely has a higher upside than that and Valbuena probably doesn't so that's a factor too (i.e. if Bautista has the opportunity to provide much more than 2.5 war, even if you age him from his 2015 season). Really depends how you see 2016 (was it the new norm or just a guy dealing with an injury riddled year). I just think, if they're legitimately making an effort to contend this year, they should gamble, which is what all the big market teams do. I think the front office is smart, but I think they're acting like the Cleveland Indians (or Tampa Bay Rays), and should be operating in that manner with more fringe players (like Steve Pearce), but not be scared to gamble, especially for a player who seems like he coudl be coming at a discount anyway in Bautista I

My main point is that in assessing Valbuena vs Bautista, where they are on the win curve is the most important thing. The effect of that is more so I think you watered down what could be an interesting conversation if we consider everything. Don't you agree? Maybe I'm not cutting you enough slack. The real thing to think about with those two are the extra things, not just these simplistic valuation considerations which I think this board goes to too often. Sure, we don't have an idea about how they value those things, but the Jays are at a point where the marginal value of war (wins, actually) is quite high, so they probably should be paying a premium for them. Rather than coming to his defense, I just think, personally, the discussion here is often status quo (i.e. reference $/war or some basic valuation) and accepting it as gospel, which limits what kind of discussion can be had (and hence makes the forum less interesting for me!)

You have taken perhaps the most basic criteria of valuation and accepted it as gospel. A fringe playoffs team should value, even regarding some abstract monetary value, a player who would get them to the playoffs more than a last place team. So, your valuation of the deal is crap. Here's a basic idea equation for you, which should be simple enough for you to understand: Jays_Excess_Value(Bautista over Valbuena) = Value of Bautista in Terms of War (Not real Value) - Value of Valbuena In Terms of War (Not Real Value) - Value of Prospect + Pr(Baustista WAR - Valbuena WAR > WAR needed to make playoffs)*[Cash Coming in From Playoffs] + [monetary value of fan perception of team affecting tickets/merc/in stadium sales] Notice the first two items in the RHS don't really belong, they aren't 'real' things. Also notice the valuation drastically changes based on the lhs team name, since many of the components there change. To argue that teams value things (or even should) the same way is absolutely stupid and is obviously not how they operate. $/war is not gospel to anybody but you, how you dont understand that is amazing. Go run another regression...

I agree, we still have space for Edwin, if the budget is there. Pearce is a bench/utility player, who should get around 100 games for us. Sign Edwin for 1b/dh along with Morales, sign a solid outfielder and let Pearce fill in as needed.

Agreed, at some point the value is just too good, and you hope the Jays realize before some other teams do

They bucket them, but you can imagine someone at the lower end of that scale ages less than someone at the higher end, hence why it's too high for Fowler

Are there any other depth options people would like to see? As of now it seems like an injury could really screw us up. Thanks a lot for bumping this up, Governator. Hopefully we can have a positive discussion in here about the rotation, though I'm already seeing some signs against that

Good idea to start discussing the rotation. Should be a lock in the rotation, hopefully he can keep his walk rate down Edit: Why is this thread moved? Would be nice for a place to have a clear discussion

Or any number of forums that ban guys like you? No good posts in your history. Why bother being here? You'd be better to just read than post

I tend to come and go from the forum, and it's posts like these that remind me why this isn't a great place for baseball discussion. I think your post is a better candidate, honestly. You offered nothing.

They're a solid team, dont underestimate them

Surprise! The yanks are acting like a big market team. Would be nice if we followed suit (to a lesser degree as our market is smaller) rather than act like the Rays

It sounds like they are down significantly on their 'high offer' and they aren't grabbing him so I think the comments are honest. You're right though, I am speculating on that honesty. Once he gets signed we will see.

He said the signing of Steve Pearce lowered the chances of signing Edwin

I find it shocking that Steve Pearce is having any influence on signing Edwin. Atkins is acting like he's the GM of Tampa Bay....

Blew their load? They gave up somebody who can't throw strikes