People really have no comprehension of how absolutely insignificant and meaningless beating the Royals would be in terms the playoffs. It is so far beyond irrelevant that's it's actually kind of funny.
Literally the ONLY scenario in which losing home-field advantage threatens the Jays is if they go to game 7 in the ALCS AND the team they face in the ALCS is the Royals.
In every other scenario, they either 1) retain HFA throughout every series anyway, 2) have the same number of home games anyway, or 3) actually end up with MORE home games.
That's right. Think about that. If the Royals overtook them, but then the Jays beat them in 5 games in the ALCS, losing home-field advantage would have worked in their favor and resulted in one more home game.
And when you realize that HFA does not actually change the expected number of home games for Toronto, you start to realize how absurd this whole thing is.
OK, you could argue that a 7 game ALCS vs the Royals is more likely than a 5 game ALCS vs the Royals. But at this point you're not even talking about 1 additional expected home game in the playoffs. You're talking about a tiny fraction of that, maybe 1/10th of one home game. Then when you consider that the visiting team wins 45% of the time, you're talking about on the order of 1/100th of a win.
That's right. Home-field advantage is worth one one-hundredth of a win throughout the entire 11 to 19 games of the playoffs.
How many wins do you think a couple extra days of rest are worth for David Price and the Jays A lineup?