Orgfiller
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Everything posted by Orgfiller
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Morosi: Blue Jays Have "Checked In" on Ketel Marte
Orgfiller replied to Leo Morgenstern's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
Outlandish claim. The only tool that Barger comes close to matching Marte in is raw power. Marte is an elite hitter with no real flaws in his offensive profile, even if Barger hits his best case scenario he'll be hard pressed to come anywhere near "90% of Marte". At Barger's age Marte was just coming off a 6 win season. Barger should by no means be this untouchable piece. I'd move him as the headliner for a player of this caliber, that has such a reasonable contract, in a heartbeat. I think you might be overreacting a bit to his excellent postseason performance. -
Interesting that Pinango got unprotected. He seems to think guys with his profile - good not great hitting, bad defense - don't tend to get picked often so they rolled the dice they can still retain him.
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Juan Soto's max EV at the MLB level: 116.6 mph. No others above 116. Just gonna leave that information there with no further comment.
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Adames is not a bad best case comparison. The power took a bit to develop, he ran a worse K/BB rate in A+ as a 19 year old with less power, albeit much better hitting. Age is still on Nimmala's side and the K rate hasn't gone off a cliff, there's still a chance there that he can become a good regular, but less likely to be special than the outlook from a year ago. If he can make it to AA by end of 2026 and tread water I still think he's on a great developmental path. He was touted as a pretty raw prospect on draft day, so I'd say he's progressing well.
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Jesus Christ, almost 116 mph max exit velo as a 17 year old is insane, that has to be minimum a 70 grade power projection. Combine that with BA giving him a 55 hit tool and his encouraging low K rate and it's hard not to dream a little about the kind of player he could become.
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The sample size is pretty small, but he had a 5.58 FIP in the playoffs on the back of an 11:6 K/BB over 14 IP with 3 bombs given up. Call it vetrin presents and "playoff experience grittiness" all you want, but if it happened on any other team you'd probably say that Max got pretty lucky to not be shelled. Obviously it worked out for us and I'll remember his playoff run fondly, but easy to see how this could have gone sideways with worse sequencing luck.
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Surely someone like Barger goes back in a potential Marte deal though. Seems very unlikely we could just send back a pure prospects package, at least while still retaining some semblance of a farm system after the fact. The offense would be unreal with both Marte and Bo, but realistically you wouldn't retain Bo if you acquired Marte. Probably use the savings on a top tier SP or maybe go all-in for Tucker.
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Imagine being like "why would the Toronto Blue Jays inquire on <superstar player making peanuts> when <worse player across the board> may be available to sign for a premium dollar amount?" lol
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Marte is a top 5 player in baseball who can switch hit and is on a dirt cheap contract. I love Bo but I'd rather have Marte and the money savings any day of the week.
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TIL Dick Fitts is/was a top 100 prospect. I guess with that in mind his ceiling is likely higher as a SP4/5, which makes even more sense why the Cards are fine sending this much money back,
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He's trash with decent max EV and can play all infield positions. Likely just sticks in AAA most of the year covering all over the infield. Unlikely we see him unless we suffer multiple 60 day IL stints.
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This makes it far more reasonable for the Red Sox. Reduces the luxury tax hit significantly. On the Cards side, they shed salary, gain a top 100 50 FV prospect plus an optionable depth arm that has a chance to be a rosterable SP5/6.
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It's 1/35 with an attached club option for 1/30 that has a $5M buyout. So 1/40 if the Sox decline the club option. But it's essentially a mutual option since Gray can decide to opt out if the club option is picked up.
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It's $35M for 2026 with a $30M club option for '27 with a $5M buyout. The Cards are eating money it seems, so we'll see just how much which will inform the value both teams are getting from it. Gray is still quite good and projects for 4 WAR - this seems like an error tbh, he's been at 3.8 and 3.6 the last two seasons and they somehow expect him to pitch more innings in his age 36 season than he has since 2015. Nevertheless, he's still a very good pitcher and I could see the Sox potentially accepting the club option if he's in the 3.5 WAR range again. Of note though, is that the velo declined by a tick last season. This kind of thing doesn't tend to bounce back as a pitcher ages, and Gray is already undersized as an SP, so will be interesting to follow if it keeps declining and how it could affect his performance. Edit: just saw Gray can opt out if the team picks up the club option, in which case the buyout is forfeited. Interesting contract structure.
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He doesn’t really seem like a target for either team tbh. Guy who was never overpowering or had elite stuff (Rays love these), not a command artist (Guardians love these), and has a big ego. Not exactly within their model of unheralded guys that they can squeeze more out of.
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Mark Leiter Jr. and Ian Hamilton both non-tendered by the Yankees. Potentially decent cheap options for middle relief depth. Aaron Boone used Leiter like the second coming of Andrew Miller, but he’s actually been pretty good for the last 3 seasons despite the mixed results in 2025. Use him in low to medium leverage and he could be a valuable part of a bullpen.
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Jeff Passan Links Blue Jays to Cody Bellinger
Orgfiller replied to Bryan Jaeger's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
Easy with the hyperbole Jonn. Santander got basically the exact contract Josh Naylor just got, while being a year older with the same production, and cheaper when factoring in deferrals. Seriously, look them up, Santander from 2022-2024 was basically the exact same player as Naylor from 2023-2025. Obviously him being injured all year and pure garbage when he did play will make you cringe, but if he had met projections then he wouldn't be viewed as some black hole contract. That's the luck of FA sometimes, not like you could've expected him to be literally one of the worst players in the league. -
Jeff Passan Links Blue Jays to Cody Bellinger
Orgfiller replied to Bryan Jaeger's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
Bellinger would also allow you to dump Straw since we wouldn't need an extra CF, and Lukes would seamlessly take on the 4th OF role who can actually pinch hit and you wouldn't cringe. -
Yeah at that price point I’d rather let him go elsewhere. I’m assuming the elevated dollars is due to only being a one year deal.
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The Red Sox will generally play at the top of the FA market when they deem it necessary. The O's have not shown any sort of willingness to do so.
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I don't either, but it could just mean they can't realistically afford both Bo and Tucker so they're going for Bo and Belli, alongside an SP of course. Daydreaming lol.
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Yup, that's the one.
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Definitely not ready to say Holliday is a bust and won't develop further, but Witt Jr. is much more of a freak athlete. 100th percentile speed since he's been in the league, with max exit velos indicative of a premium power hitter, and these tools translated into him also becoming an elite defender at SS. Holliday has already shifted down the defensive spectrum and was horrendous at 2B last season. Holliday's ceiling is probably like Robinson Cano? But even post prime Cano had a grade/grade+ higher in raw power output. Whereas Bobby Witt Jr. is trending like an inner circle HOF.
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Did not realize how bad Cowser was in 2025. This is an excellent discovery.
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Yes, hence the comment about his performance declining. He basically performed like a worse version of Chris Bassitt. Not sure if he should even have been offered the QO. Kind of a blessing in disguise for Arizona that he turned it down, not that a 1/22 commitment is awful or anything for an average innings eater.
