It's definitely a good strategy IMO as well. It seems every year there will be a couple guys that drop. With the ability to punt picks, that would yield lesser talent anyways, to create cap space it seems like a no-brainer to me.
That's not the scouting report at all.
Plus fastball, with plus command. How many guys throw 97mph out of HS with plus command? Some scouts expect his velocity to tick up a notch or two as well. Additionally no HS pitcher has legitimate MLB plus off-speed pitches, Bickford has a couple offerings that scouts like and expect to improve. Furthermore he is one of the youngest players in the draft, meaning he isn't as far in to his development curve as most HS pitchers.
Brentz throws it hard and is a lefty but he also doesn't have secondaries. Brentz is very raw and doesn't have the same FB control as Bickford.
Furthermore signing Bickford (unless way over-slot which is highly unlikely) shouldn't impact signing Brentz one way or the other.
I can see AA going ~100k-300k over slot. No way Bickford should get much more considering the advantages of having a top 10 pick in next years deep draft (talent + budget space).
A poster by the name of MjwW over at BlueBirdBanter has been keeping a running tab. This is his table;
http://s18.postimg.org/loe1m76e1/2013.png
Which was taken from the comment section on the website's draft signing table found here; http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2013/6/10/4414442/2013-mlb-draft-signing-table
IMO Bickford will be independent of Brentz or Tellez (who seems like a pipe-dream at this point). Frazier got $3.5M, Shipley $2.25M, Smith $2.6M, McGuire $2.4M, Bickford should be somewhere in that range as well.
If AA needs to save money for Bickford it will come from the few guys not yet signed. It's pretty clear AA is going over-slot after round 10, he isn't going to overpay Bickford and eat in to that pool. IMO Bickford will get inked around slot or he'll go to college for that reason.
Plus the 5% too Ace...
Patrick Murphy: $150,800
Evan Smith: $96,100
Daniel Lietz: $134,000
Connor Greene: $87,400
Garrett Custons: $135,800
5% Overage Allowance: $320,000
Total space created: $924,000
Beat me to it! I think I listed most of the others, there were a couple guys I have around the ~70 range (KC Hobson, Cenas, Loveless, etc) that I didn't include.
Ya Goins would make some people's Top 50 for sure. Also, Berti, Cole, Lawrence, Brisker, Leblibijian, Thon, Chino Vega, Biggs and Arce should probably be on there as well.
Right now 5HR power, 10HR power would be a moderate projection, 15HR power would take a power surge significantly above the mean growth in his peer group and +20HR's is an absolute best case scenario.
Russell Martin is a decent comp IMO. I can definitely see a career line of .260/.352/.400, .333 wOBA, 103 wRC+. I doubt Jimenez puts up multiple ~20HR seasons like Martin has though.
He will never be a star with the bat but, he has hit for contact, has some pop and is an elite defensive catching prospect. IMO he has a really good shot at being a league average C which, excites me. However, if you are only excited by stars his tool-set wont get you worked up.
Ah gotcha, on some of his pitches he's 7mph at his lowest peak velocity. However, I agree the barometer should be Cecil's peak velocity in the bullpen, not at his worst as a SP. Therefore it's more like 1-3mph velocity increase depending on the pitch and your measuring stick.
One thing I noticed about Cecil's repertoire is that he has created velocity separation on all of his pitches. In prior seasons we had seen that Cecil threw all of his pitches around the same velocity. Now there is a definite gap between his hard and soft stuff which, is really playing up the change-up again and disrupting the hitter's timing. IMO this is a major contributor to his recent success as well and a factor that is often lost in the shuffle.
Fangraphs uses the same PitchF/X data as Brook's Baseball so in a sense they are the same. IMO the ambiguity comes from tiny graphs with many data point and little filter tools. Basically just an info dump without very many tools to sort through and analyze the information.
IMO the differences comes in the purpose of the websites. Fangraph's PitchF/X data is more designed for a quick review and utilized as a tool to compare Pitch F/X data against career/seasonal stats in one location. Where as Brook's Baseball is strictly a website for PitchF/X. The specialization of the site has allowed Brook's to develop great ways to visualize and analyze their data in ways that are more in depth and filtered to your needs.
This is what Fangraph's has to say about Brook's;
It's only because you are looking at Fangraphs which has ambiguous velocity data. If you check out Brook's Baseball you'll see that Cecil's velocity has never been this high at any point since his MLB debut, starting or relieving it doesn't matter.
1. Cecil's Player Card
http://www.brooksbaseball.net/tabs.php?player=446399&balls=-1&strikes=-1&b_hand=-1&time=month&minmax=ci&var=traj&s_type=2&gFilt=&startDate=01/01/2013&endDate=01/01/2014
2. Cecil's Velocity Graph
http://www.brooksbaseball.net/cache/ee7b06381b8f50add0d276528060936b.gif
http://www.brooksbaseball.net/plot_bytime.php?s_type=2&time=month&player=446399&gFilt=&pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&startDate=03/30/2007&endDate=06/17/2013&minmax=ci&var=mph
3. Cecil's 2012 Velocity Graph, you can see the velo bump in Sept when he became a reliever
http://www.brooksbaseball.net/cache/ae7b65a635ad0c3bc344c866bcc84fca.gif
http://www.brooksbaseball.net/plot_bytime.php?s_type=2&time=month&player=446399&gFilt=&pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&startDate=01/01/2012&endDate=01/01/2013&minmax=ci&var=mph
4. Cecil's 2013 Velocity Graph, you can clearly see the added velocity on every pitch
http://www.brooksbaseball.net/cache/20e6e14196641db095f2f93019fcb4ca.gif
http://www.brooksbaseball.net/plot_bytime.php?s_type=2&time=month&player=446399&gFilt=&pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&startDate=01/01/2013&endDate=01/01/2014&minmax=ci&var=mph