Yeah "safe pick" is a dubious concept. The JPR era was littered with so called "safe picks" that busted. In that era "safe" was practically a euphemism for "less upside". More recently, Max Pentecost was considered a pretty safe pick but then he ran into injury trouble, which could happen with any draft pick, and his outlook got a lot murkier. You just never know. And even when you start to think you know, you still might not know (Pentecost for instance could certainly go either way at this point). A lot can change between the time you draft a guy and the time he should be ready. Pitchers, hitters, high school guys, college guys. No one is ever entirely safe. It's just different probabilities and overall baseball has the lowest draft pick probabilities of the major sports.